Determining underlying macroeconomic fundamentals during emerging market crises: Are conditions as bad as they seem?

Emerging market crises are characterized by large swings in both macroeconomic fundamentalsand asset prices. The economic significance of observed movements in macroeconomicvariables is obscured by the brief and extreme nature of crises. In this paper we propose to study the macroeconomic consequences of crises by studying the behavior of effective fundamentals, constructed by studying the relative movements of stock prices during crises. We find that these effective fundamentals provide a different picture than that implied by observed fundamentals. First, asset prices often reflect expectations of improvement in fundamentals after the initial devaluations; specifically, effective depreciations are positive but not as large as the observed ones. Second, crises vary in their effect on credit market conditions, with investors expecting tightening of credit in some cases (Mexico 1994, Philippines 1997), but loosening of credit in others (Sweden 1992, Korea 1997, Brazil 1999).

Firm Size and Geographical Aggregation: An Empirical Appraisal in Industrial Location

This paper assesses empirically the importance of size discrimination and disaggregate data for deciding where to locate a start-up concern. We compare three econometric specifications using Catalan data: a multinomial logit with 4 and 41 alternatives (provinces and comarques, respectively) in which firm size is the main covariate; a conditional logit with 4 and 41 alternatives including attributes of the sites as well as size-site interactions; and a Poisson model on the comarques and the full spatial choice set (942 municipalities) with site-specific variables. Our results suggest that if these two issues are ignored, conclusions may be misleading. We provide evidence that large and small firms behave differently and conclude that Catalan firms tend to choose between comarques rather than between municipalities. Moreover, labour-intensive firms seem more likely to be located in the city of Barcelona. Keywords: Catalonia, industrial location, multinomial response model. JEL: C250, E30, R00, R12

Labour market frictions, social policies, and barriers to technology adoption

Barriers to technological changes have recently been shown to be a key element in explaining differences in output per worker across countries. This study examines the role that labour market features and institutions have in explaining barriers to technology adoption. I build a model that includes labour market frictions, capital market imperfections and heterogeneity in workers' skills. I found that the unemployment rate together with the welfare losses that workers experiment after displacement are key factors in explaining the existence of barriers to technology adoption. Moreover, I found that none of these factors alone is sufficient to build these barriers. The theory also suggests that welfare policies like the unemployment insurance system may enhance these kinds of barriers while policies like a severance payment system financed by an income tax seem to be more effective in eliminating them.

Human capital in growth regressions: how much difference does data quality make? An update and further results

We construct estimates of educational attainment for a sample of OECD countries using previously unexploited sources. We follow a heuristic approach to obtain plausible time profiles for attainment levels by removing sharp breaks in the data that seem to reflect changes in classification criteria. We then construct indicators of the information content of our series and a number of previously available data sets and examine their performance in several growth specifications. We find a clear positive correlation between data quality and the size and significance of human capital coefficients in growth regressions. Using an extension of the classical errors in variables model, we construct a set of meta-estimates of the coefficient of years of schooling in an aggregate Cobb-Douglas production function. Our results suggest that, after correcting for measurement error bias, the value of this parameter is well above 0.50.

A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

Cubic spline population density functions and subcentre delimitation. The case of Barcelona

The presence of subcentres cannot be captured by an exponential function. Cubic spline functions seem more appropriate to depict the polycentricity pattern of modern urban systems. Using data from Barcelona Metropolitan Region, two possible population subcentre delimitation procedures are discussed. One, taking an estimated derivative equal to zero, the other, a density gradient equal to zero. It is argued that, in using a cubic spline function, a delimitation strategy based on derivatives is more appropriate than one based on gradients because the estimated density can be negative in sections with very low densities and few observations, leading to sudden changes in estimated gradients. It is also argued that using as a criteria for subcentre delimitation a second derivative with value zero allow us to capture a more restricted subcentre area than using as a criteria a first derivative zero. This methodology can also be used for intermediate ring delimitation.

On the regional impact of public capital formation in Spain

The objective of this paper is to investigate, in a methodologically consistent manner, the regional effects of public capital formation and the possible existence of regional spillover effects in Spain. The empirical results are based on VAR estimates at both the aggregate and regional levels using output, employment, and private capital, as well as different measures of public capital. Empirical results suggest that public capital affects output positively at the aggregate level as well as in all but one region. For most regions, the effects of public capital installed in the region itself are important but the spillover effects induced from public capital installed elsewhere are also very important. In fact, the spillover effects account for over half of the total effects of public capital formation in Spain. Furthermore, these spillover effects have a clear geographical pattern in that they tend to be more important in the peripheral regions of the country. We also find that relative to their share of the Spanish output, the biggest beneficiaries of public capital formation are the largest regions in the country. This suggests that public capital formation has contributed to concentration of output in these regions. Finally, in terms of the effects of public capital formation on the private inputs we find that both private capital and employment are affected positively at the aggregate level as well as for most of the regions. Nevertheless, the effects on private capital seem to be larger. Also, the spillover effects are very important for private capital but not for employment. This reflects a great degree of dynamism and mobility in the capital markets as opposed to the labor markets.

Firm strategies in R&D: cooperation and participation in R&D programs

This paper presents empirical evidence on firms’ decisions to cooperate in R&D and the extent to which government sponsored R&D programs increase cooperation. Using a sample of firms from the Spanish innovation survey we jointly estimate the determinants of firm participation in R&D programs and of choice of cooperation partners. We find that (i) firms participating in national and European programs have different profiles, suggesting program complementarity; (ii) private-private and publicprivate cooperation are associated on average with firms with different characteristics, and (iii) national R&D programs seem to have a positive effect on all types of cooperation, but especially on public-private partnerships.

Determinació de la ubicació estructural dels ions Yb3+ i Nb3+ en Yb:RTP, Nb:RTP i (Nb,Yb):RTP

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada al Stony Brook University al juliol del 2006. El RbTiOPO4 (RTP) monocristal•lí és un material d' òptica no lineal molt rellevant i utilitzat en la tecnologia làser actual, químicament molt estable i amb unes propietats físiques molt destacades, entre elles destaquen els alts coeficients electro-òptics i l'alt llindar de dany òptic que presenta. En els últims anys s’està utilitzant tecnològicament en aplicacions d'òptica no lineal en general i electro-òptiques en particular. En alguns casos ja ha substituït, millorant prestacions, a materials tals com el KTP o el LNB(1). Dopant RTP amb ions lantànids (Ln3+) (2-4), el material es converteix en un material làser auto-doblador de freqüència, combinant les seves propietats no lineals amb les de matriu làser. El RTP genera radiació de segon harmònic (SHG) a partir d’un feix fonamental amb longituds d’ona inferiors a 990 nm, que és el límit que presenta el KTP.La determinació de la ubicació estructural i l’estudi de l'entorn local del ions actius làser és de fonamental importància per a la correcta interpretació de les propietats espectroscòpiques d’aquest material. Mesures de difracció de neutrons sobre mostra de pols cristal•lí mostren que els ions Nb5+ i Ln3+ només substitueixin posicions de Ti4+ (8-9). Estudis molt recents d'EPR (electron paramagnetic resonance) semblen indicar que quan la concentració d'ió Ln3+ es baixa, aquest ió presenta la tendència a substituir l'ió alcalí present a l'estructura (10).Després dels resultats obtinguts en el present treball a partir de la tècnica EXAFS a la instal•lació sincrotò del Brookhaven National Laboratory/State University of New York (Stony Brook) es pot concloure definitivament que els ions Nb s’ubiquen en la posició Ti (1) i que els ions Yb3+ es distribueixen paritariament en les dues posicions del Ti (1 i 2). Aquests resultats aporten una valuosa informació per a la correcta interpretació dels espectres, tant d’absorció com d’emissió, del material i per la avaluació dels paràmetres del seu comportament durant l'acció làser.

The Ideas Debate in International and European Studies: Towards a Cartography and Critical Assessment

The appeal to ideas as causal variables and/or constitutive features of political processes increasingly characterises political analysis. Yet, perhaps because of the pace of this ideational intrusion, too often ideas have simply been grafted onto pre-existing explanatory theories at precisely the point at which they seem to get into difficulties, with little or no consideration either of the status of such ideational variables or of the character or consistency of the resulting theoretical hybrid. This is particularly problematic for ideas are far from innocent variables – and can rarely, if ever, be incorporated seamlessly within existing explanatory and/or constitutive theories without ontological and epistemological consequence. We contend that this tendency along with the limitations of the prevailing Humean conception of causality, and associated epistemological polemic between causal and constitutive logics, continue to plague almost all of the literature that strives to accord an explanatory role to ideas. In trying to move beyond the current vogue for epistemological polemic, we argue that the incommensurability thesis between causal and constitutive logics is only credible in the context of a narrow, Humean, conception of causation. If we reject this in favour of a more inclusive (and ontologically realist) understanding then it is perfectly possible to chart the causal significance of constitutive processes and reconstrue the explanatory role of ideas as causally constitutive.

Labor productivity in Spain: 1977-2002

This study examines the evolution of labor productivity across Spanish regions during the period from 1977 to 2002. By applying the kernel technique, we estimate the effects of the Transition process on labor productivity and its main sources. We find that Spanish regions experienced a major convergence process in labor productivity and in human capital in the 1977-1993 period. We also pinpoint the existence of a transition co-movement between labor productivity and human capital. Conversely, the dynamics of investment in physical capital seem unrelated to the transition dynamics of labor productivity. The lack of co-evolution can be addressed as one of the causes of the current slowdown in productivity. Classification-JEL: J24, N34, N940, O18, O52, R10

Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach

We use a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification to assess whether the Central and East European countries (CEECs) are synchronized in their business cycles to the Euro-area. This specification is useful in two ways: First, it takes into account the common institutional factors and the similarities across CEECs in their process of economic transition. Second, it captures business cycle asymmetries by allowing for the presence of two distinct regimes for the CEECs. As the CEECs are strongly affected by the Euro-area these regimes may be associated with Euro-area expansions and contractions. We discuss representation, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference. The methodology is illustrated by using monthly industrial production in 8 CEECs. The results show that apart from Lithuania the rest of the CEECs experience “normal” growth when the Euro-area contracts and “high” growth when the Euro-area expands. Given that the CEECs are “catching up” with the Euro-area this result shows that most CEECs seem synchronized to the Euro-area cycle. Keywords: Threshold SURE; asymmetry; business cycles; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; C50; E32.

Comportamiento tribomecánico de sistemas de sustrato: recubrimiento duros

En aplicaciones como la conformación en frío, donde los metales duros recubiertos con películas de naturaleza cerámica son ampliamente empleados, la existencia de un contacto mecánico repetitivo induce tensiones Hertzianas y origina el fallo por fatiga. En este trabajo, se investigan diversos recubrimientos cerámicos depositados por deposición física desde fase vapor sobre calidades diferentes de metal duro y un acero rápido pulvimetalúrgico para evaluar sus respectivas respuesta al contacto y comportamiento a fatiga. El trabajo experimental incluye la caracterización de los sistemas mediante ensayos de rayado y nanoindentación y la evaluación de las curvas tensión-deformación de indentación esférica de los sustratos, tanto desnudos como recubiertos, poniendo especial atención en determinar las tensiones de contacto críticas asociadas a la deformación plástica y a la aparición de grietas circulares en la superficie recubierta. A este estudio, le siguen numerosos ensayos a fatiga a cargas inferiores a aquéllas identificadas como críticas bajo carga monotónica y para un número de ciclos comprendido entre 1.000 y 1.000.000 de ciclos. Los resultados experimentales indican que las películas cerámicas no parecen desempeñar un papel relevante en la aparición de la cedencia plástica, siendo la deformación plástica global controlada por la deformación del sustrato. No obstante, para tensiones elevadas de indentación durante el régimen plástico, existe la aparición de grietas circulares en los recubrimientos cerámicos. Además, la aparición de las mismas es sensible a la fatiga por contacto. Este análisis mecánico se complementa con una inspección detallada del daño generado en profundidad y superficie.

Regulació del factor de transcripció NFAT5 per les quinases WNK1, SPAK i OSR1 i cerca de quinases activadores de la pròpia WNK1 en resposta a estrés osmòtic

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada a la School of Life Sciences de la University of Dundee, Gran Bretanya, entre gener i març del 2007.L'estrès osmòtic causa rà pidament l'activació de la quinasa WNK1, que fosforila i activa a continuació les quinases SPAK i OSR1, que alhora regulen canals i transportadors d’ions preexistents a la membrana cel•lular. El factor de transcripció NFAT5 és el principal regulador de la resposta cel•lular transcripcional secundà ria a hipertonicitat i s’ha descrit que les quinases p38, Fyn, PKA, ERK/MEK i ATM estan involucrades en la seva regulació post-traduccional. No obstant, com que la funció d’aquestes quinases no explica totalment els mecanismes d'activació de NFAT5, s’ha estudiat si l’activitat transcripcional de NFAT5 pot estar regulada per WNK1, SPAK o OSR1. Així doncs, es va observar que l’activitat d’un reporter dependent de NFAT5 no es veu afectada per la presència de cap de les quinases anteriors, en la seva forma wild-type o dominant negatiu. D’altra banda, es va estudiar quin domini de WNK1 és necessari per a que pugui respondre a hipertonicitat i quines quinases poden estar involucrades en la fosforilació de la serina 382 de WNK1. En conclusió, les dades obtingudes apunten que l’activació de WNK1 en resposta a estrès osmòtic requereix la seva fosforilació en la serina 382 per quinases upstream com PAK2 o RSK i que també és necessari un dels seus dominis coiled-coil, almenys els aminoà cids 558 i 561. Aquests processos, però, semblen ser independents de l’activació de NFAT5 en resposta a hipertonicitat.   

“Un fol anar don es en fol venguz”: idas y venidas del desconocido Engles

Investigación elaborada a partir de una estancia en la Facoltà di Lettere e filosofia de la Università degli Studi dell'Aquila entre los meses de octubre del 2006 y marzo del 2007. Engles es uno de los trovadores occitanos de los siglos XII y XIII más misteriosos i desconocidos. Ante la falta de datos históricos o documentales, la única vía que queda es intentar descubrir las posibilidades comunicativas de los textos literarios que mencionan a Engles cuando son leídos en conjunto, como parte de un mismo grupo temático en torno a este personaje enigmático. De hecho, haciendo una lectura de este tipo, resulta evidente que parte de la información que podemos deducir hoy en día de Engles pudo haber sido, en cierto modo, alterada; o, como mínimo, leída erróneamente a lo largo del tiempo. Por ello resultan contradictorias las conclusiones que se derivan de la información que existe de él. Parte del problema es que a la falta de información archivística se suma la escasez del corpus de textos relacionados con Engles; y, sin embargo, a pesar de lo escaso en números, resulta de gran interés informativo. Partiendo del estudio de algunas de estas menciones, el artículo intenta establecer un diálogo coherente entre todos los textos, buscando dilucidar quién fue el misterioso Engles.