Models de simulació per coordinar serveis d'emergència

El projecte exposat té com a propòsit definir i implementar un model de simulació basat en la coordinació i assignació dels serveis d’emergència en accidents de trànsit. La definició del model s’ha realitzat amb l’ús de les Xarxes de Petri Acolorides i la implementació amb el software Rockwell Arena 7.0. El modelatge de la primera simulació ens mostra un model teòric basat en cues mentre que el segon, mostra un model més complet i real gràcies a la connexió mitjançant la plataforma Corba a una base de dades amb informació geogràfica de les flotes i de les rutes. Com a resultat de l’estudi i amb l’ajuda de GoogleEarth, podem realitzar simulacions gràfiques per veure els accidents generats, les flotes dels serveis i el moviment dels vehicles des de les bases fins als accidents.

A theory of optimal random crackdowns

An incentives based theory of policing is developed which can explain the phenomenon of random “crackdowns,” i.e., intermittent periods of high interdiction/surveillance. For a variety of police objective functions, random crackdowns can be part of the optimal monitoring strategy. We demonstrate support for implications of the crackdown theory using traffic data gathered by the Belgian Police Department and use the model to estimate the deterrence effectof additional resources spent on speeding interdiction.

FAM-MDR: a flexible family-based multifactor dimensionality reduction technique to detect epistasis using related individuals

We propose a novel multifactor dimensionality reduction method for epistasis detection in small or extended pedigrees, FAM-MDR. It combines features of the Genome-wide Rapid Association using Mixed Model And Regression approach (GRAMMAR) with Model-Based MDR (MB-MDR). We focus on continuous traits, although the method is general and can be used for outcomes of any type, including binary and censored traits. When comparing FAM-MDR with Pedigree-based Generalized MDR (PGMDR), which is a generalization of Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR) to continuous traits and related individuals, FAM-MDR was found to outperform PGMDR in terms of power, in most of the considered simulated scenarios. Additional simulations revealed that PGMDR does not appropriately deal with multiple testing and consequently gives rise to overly optimistic results. FAM-MDR adequately deals with multiple testing in epistasis screens and is in contrast rather conservative, by construction. Furthermore, simulations show that correcting for lower order (main) effects is of utmost importance when claiming epistasis. As Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is a complex phenotype likely influenced by gene-gene interactions, we applied FAM-MDR to examine data on glucose area-under-the-curve (GAUC), an endophenotype of T2DM for which multiple independent genetic associations have been observed, in the Amish Family Diabetes Study (AFDS). This application reveals that FAM-MDR makes more efficient use of the available data than PGMDR and can deal with multi-generational pedigrees more easily. In conclusion, we have validated FAM-MDR and compared it to PGMDR, the current state-of-the-art MDR method for family data, using both simulations and a practical dataset. FAM-MDR is found to outperform PGMDR in that it handles the multiple testing issue more correctly, has increased power, and efficiently uses all available information.

Timing and nature of alluvial fan and strath terrace formation in the Eastern Precordillera of Argentina

Sixty-eight 10Be terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) surface exposure ages are presented to define the timing of alluvial fan and strath terrace formation in the hyper-arid San Juan region of the Argentine Precordillera. This region is tectonically active, and numerous fault scarps traverse Quaternary landforms. The three study sites, Marquesado strath complex, Loma Negra alluvial fan and Carpintería strath complex reveal a history of alluvial fan and strath terrace development over the past w225 ka. The Marquesado complex Q3m surface dates to w17 3 ka, whereas the Loma Negra Q1ln, Q2ln, Q3ln, Q4ln, and Q5ln surfaces date to w24 3 ka, w48 2 ka, w65 13 ka, w105 21 ka, and w181 29 ka, respectively. The Carpintería complex comprises eight surfaces that have been dated and include the Q1c (w23 3 ka), Q2c (w5 5 ka), Q3ac (w25 12 ka), Q3bc (w29 15 ka), Q4c (w61 12 ka), Q5c (w98 18 ka), Q6c (w93 18 ka), and Q7c (w212 37 ka). 10Be TCN depth profile data for the Loma Negra alluvial fan complex and Carpintería strath terrace complex, as well as OSL ages on some Carpintería deposits, aid in refining surface ages for comparison with local and global climate proxies, and additionally offer insights into inheritance and erosion rate values for TCNs (w10 104 10Be atoms/g of SiO2 and w5 m Ma 1, respectively). Comparison with other alluvial fan studies in the region show that less dynamic and older preserved surfaces occur in the Carpintería and Loma Negra areas with only younger alluvial fan surfaces preserved both to the north and south. These data in combination with that of other studies illustrate broad regional agreement between alluvial fan and strath terrace ages, which suggests that climate is the dominant forcing agent in the timing of terrace formation in this region.