Safety in vicinity of industrials plants: risk assessment and land use planning

The aim of this book is to survey on different Land Use Planning and safety approaches in vicinity of industrial plants. As this research is associated with three broad fields of Land Use Planning, safety and security, the set principle is to avoid unnecessary and over detailed information, but including the useful ones to provide a comprehensive resource which can be applicable for several purposes. Besides, the proposed method, which is explained in Chapter 7, can initiate a new field for future of Land Use Planning in vicinity of industrial plants.

Occurrence of patulin in organic and conventional apple juice. Risk assessment

Organic foods are promoted as environmentally friendly and its consumption has become increasingly popular. Nevertheless,organic farming practices could produce commodities more susceptible to fungal attack and as a result, food with higher levels of mycotoxins. Patulin is a mycotoxin mainly present in apples and apple-based products. In this paper, we report our recent results and an update of the patulin occurrence and their risk in conventional and organic apple juices around Europe.

The use of flexible quantile-based measures in risk assessment

A new family of distortion risk measures -GlueVaR- is proposed in Belles- Sampera et al. -2013- to procure a risk assessment lying between those provided by common quantile-based risk measures. GlueVaR risk measures may be expressed as a combination of these standard risk measures. We show here that this relationship may be used to obtain approximations of GlueVaR measures for general skewed distribution functions using the Cornish-Fisher expansion. A subfamily of GlueVaR measures satisfies the tail-subadditivity property. An example of risk measurement based on real insurance claim data is presented, where implications of tail-subadditivity in the aggregation of risks are illustrated.

Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis andovertreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were:age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population usedmammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis.Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively.Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools

Anàlisi de la motivació al canvi en subjectes que han realitzat un programa formatiu en violència domèstica

Aquesta recerca consisteix en l’avaluació de la motivació al canvi en un grup de 116 agressors que realitzen un programa formatiu en matèria de violència domèstica (VIDO) com a mesura penal alternativa. L’objectiu principal d’aquesta recerca és determinar en quin grau es produeix un canvi motivacional com a conseqüència de la participació en el programa formatiu. Amb aquest propòsit, s’avalua el risc dels individus (mitjançant l’avaluació de risc realitzada pels delegats judicials), les seves necessitats criminogèniques (mitjançant dades sociodemogràfiques i de carrera criminal), les característiques clíniques de personalitat mesurades amb l’Inventari d’Avaluació de la Personalitat (PAI) i la seva motivació per al canvi (a través de l’Escala d’Estadis de Canvi). Els resultats indiquen que els canvis en el nivell de motivació dels subjectes no es deuen a l’efecte del programa formatiu. No obstant això, es troben canvis significatius quan la motivació s’analitza en relació a les característiques del PAI. Aquests resultats suggereixen l’existència de diferents perfils de maltractadors de parella que s’han de tenir en compte a l’hora de planificar el programa formatiu per aconseguir la màxima eficàcia de les intervencions i el canvi terapèutic dels individus.

Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Introduction: Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis and overtreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. Methods: We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were: age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population used mammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis. Results: Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively. Conclusions: Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools.

Análisis de la motivación al cambio en sujetos que han realizado un programa formativo en violencia doméstica

Esta investigación consiste en la evaluación de la motivación al cambio en un grupo de 116 agresores que realizan un programa formativo en materia de violencia doméstica (VIDO) como medida penal alternativa. El objetivo principal de esta investigación es determinar en qué grado se produce un cambio motivacional como consecuencia de la participación en el programa formativo. Con este propósito, se evalúa el riesgo de los individuos (mediante la evaluación de riesgo realizada por los delegados judiciales), sus necesidades criminògenas (mediante datos sociodemográficos y de carrera criminal), las características clínicas de personalidad medidas con el Inventario de evaluación de la Personalidad (PAI) y su motivación para el cambio (a través de la Escala de Estadios de cambio). Los resultados indican que los cambios en el nivel de motivación de los sujetos no se deben a los efectos del programa formativo. Sin embargo, se encuentran cambios significativos cuando la motivación se analiza en relación a las características del PAI. Estos resultados sugieren la existencia de diferentes perfiles de maltratadores de pareja que se deben tener en cuenta a la hora de planificar el programa formativo para conseguir la máxima eficacia de las intervenciones y el cambio terapéutico de los individuos.

A reflection about the social and technological aspects in flood risk management - the case of the Italian Civil Protection

The right of a person to be protected from natural hazards is a characteristic of the social and economical development of the society. This paper is a contribution to the reflection about the role of Civil Protection organizations in a modern society. The paper is based in the inaugural conference made by the authors on the 9th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms. Two major issues are considered. The first one is sociological; the Civil Protection organizations and the responsible administration of the land use planning should be perceived as reliable as possible, in order to get consensus on the restrictions they pose, temporary or definitely, on the individual free use of the territory as well as in the entire warning system. The second one is technological: in order to be reliable they have to issue timely alert and warning to the population at large, but such alarms should be as "true" as possible. With this aim, the paper summarizes the historical evolution of the risk assessment, starting from the original concept of "hazard", introducing the concepts of "scenario of event" and "scenario of risk" and ending with a discussion about the uncertainties and limits of the most advanced and efficient tools to predict, to forecast and to observe the ground effects affecting people and their properties. The discussion is centred in the case of heavy rains and flood events in the North-West of Mediterranean Region.

QuesTInSitu: from tests to routes for assessment in situ activities

Test-based assessment tools are mostly focused on the use of computers. However, advanced Information and Communication Technologies, such as handheld devices, opens up the possibilities of creating new assessment scenarios, increasing the teachers’ choices to design more appropriate tests for their subject areas. In this paper we use the term Computing-Based Testing (CBT) instead of Computer-Based Testing, as it captures better the emerging trends. Within the CBT context, the paper is centred on proposing an approach for “Assessment in situ” activities, where questions have to be answered in front of a real space/location (situ). In particular, we present the QuesTInSitu software implementation that includes both an editor and a player based on the IMS Question and Test Interoperability specification and GoogleMaps. With QuesTInSitu teachers can create geolocated questions and tests (routes), and students can answer the tests using mobile devices with GPS when following a route. Three illustrating scenarios and the results from the implementation of one of them in a real educational situation show that QuesTInSitu enables the creation of innovative, enriched and context-aware assessment activities. The results also indicate that the use of mobile devices and location-based systems in assessment activities facilitates students to put explorative and spatial skills into practice and fosters their motivation, reflection and personal observation.

Solvencia en un Reaseguro Finite Risk

One of the characteristics of the finite risk reinsurance is the existence of an found of experience, which is constituted by the premiums charged by the reinsurer, together with his financial incomes, and his objective is to finance the claims to be satisfied to the insurer in the specified period. The objective of this work is to design a model that allows us to determinate the reserve that the found of experience should have in every annual period in order to guarantee its dynamic solvency, taking into the experience of the claims of the reinsurer"s portfolio and of each insurance company.

The promotion and assessment of generic skills from interdisciplinary teaching teams

The paper explains a teaching project financed by the University of Barcelona (UB). It focuses on ageneric skill of the University of Barcelona, which is defined as "the learning capability andresponsibility”, and in which analytical and synthesis skills are included. It follows a multidisciplinaryapproach including teachers of Mathematics, World Economics and Economic History. All of us sharethe same students during the first and the second course of the grade in Economics at the Faculty ofEconomics and Business. The project has been developed in three stages. The first one has beendone during the first semester of the course 2012/13, being applied to first year students on thesubjects of Mathematics and Economic History. The second phase is being to be done during thesecond semester only on the Economic History subject. A third stage is going to be done next course2013/14 to second year students on the subject of World Economics. Each different teaching teamhas developed specific materials and assessment tools for each one of the subjects included in theproject. The project emphasizes two teaching dimensions: the elaboration of teaching materials topromote the acquisition of generic skills from an interdisciplinary point of view, and the design ofspecific tools to assess such skills. The first results of the first phase of the project shows cleardeficiencies in the analytical skill regarding to first year students.

The promotion and assessment of generic skills from interdisciplinary teaching teams

The paper explains a teaching project financed by the University of Barcelona (UB). It focuses on ageneric skill of the University of Barcelona, which is defined as "the learning capability andresponsibility”, and in which analytical and synthesis skills are included. It follows a multidisciplinaryapproach including teachers of Mathematics, World Economics and Economic History. All of us sharethe same students during the first and the second course of the grade in Economics at the Faculty ofEconomics and Business. The project has been developed in three stages. The first one has beendone during the first semester of the course 2012/13, being applied to first year students on thesubjects of Mathematics and Economic History. The second phase is being to be done during thesecond semester only on the Economic History subject. A third stage is going to be done next course2013/14 to second year students on the subject of World Economics. Each different teaching teamhas developed specific materials and assessment tools for each one of the subjects included in theproject. The project emphasizes two teaching dimensions: the elaboration of teaching materials topromote the acquisition of generic skills from an interdisciplinary point of view, and the design ofspecific tools to assess such skills. The first results of the first phase of the project shows cleardeficiencies in the analytical skill regarding to first year students.

The promotion and assessment of generic skills from interdisciplinary teaching teams

The paper explains a teaching project financed by the University of Barcelona (UB). It focuses on ageneric skill of the University of Barcelona, which is defined as "the learning capability andresponsibility”, and in which analytical and synthesis skills are included. It follows a multidisciplinaryapproach including teachers of Mathematics, World Economics and Economic History. All of us sharethe same students during the first and the second course of the grade in Economics at the Faculty ofEconomics and Business. The project has been developed in three stages. The first one has beendone during the first semester of the course 2012/13, being applied to first year students on thesubjects of Mathematics and Economic History. The second phase is being to be done during thesecond semester only on the Economic History subject. A third stage is going to be done next course2013/14 to second year students on the subject of World Economics. Each different teaching teamhas developed specific materials and assessment tools for each one of the subjects included in theproject. The project emphasizes two teaching dimensions: the elaboration of teaching materials topromote the acquisition of generic skills from an interdisciplinary point of view, and the design ofspecific tools to assess such skills. The first results of the first phase of the project shows cleardeficiencies in the analytical skill regarding to first year students.

Market Index Biases and Minimum Risk Indices

Markets, in the real world, are not efficient zero-sum games where hypotheses of the CAPM are fulfilled. Then, it is easy to conclude the market portfolio is not located on Markowitz"s efficient frontier, and passive investments (and indexing) are not optimal but biased. In this paper, we define and analyze biases suffered by passive investors: the sample, construction, efficiency and active biases and tracking error are presented. We propose Minimum Risk Indices (MRI) as an alternative to deal with to market index biases, and to provide investors with portfolios closer to the efficient frontier, that is, more optimal investment possibilities. MRI (using a Parametric Value-at-Risk Minimization approach) are calculated for three stock markets achieving interesting results. Our indices are less risky and more profitable than current Market Indices in the Argentinean and Spanish markets, facing that way the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Two innovations must be outlined: an error dimension has been included in the backtesting and the Sharpe"s Ratio has been used to select the"best" MRI