The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Labor supply response to international migration and remittances in the Republic of Haiti

The Republic of Haiti is the prime international remittances recipient country in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region relative to its gross domestic product (GDP). The downside of this observation may be that this country is also the first exporter of skilled workers in the world by population size. The present research uses a zero-altered negative binomial (with logit inflation) to model households' international migration decision process, and endogenous regressors' Amemiya Generalized Least Squares method (instrumental variable Tobit, IV-Tobit) to account for selectivity and endogeneity issues in assessing the impact of remittances on labor market outcomes. Results are in line with what has been found so far in this literature in terms of a decline of labor supply in the presence of remittances. However, the impact of international remittances does not seem to be important in determining recipient households' labor participation behavior, particularly for women.

Polymorphisms cyclooxygenase-2 -765G>C and interleukin-6 -174G>C are associated with serum inflammation markers in a high cardiovascular risk population and do not modify the response to a Mediterranean diet supplemented with virgin olive oil or nuts

Inflammation is involved in cardiovascular diseases. Some studies have found that the Mediterranean diet (MD) can reduce serum concentrations of inflammation markers. However, none of these studies have analyzed the influence of genetic variability in such a response. Our objective was to study the effect of the -765G.C polymorphism in the cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) gene and the -174G.C polymorphism in the interleukin-6 (IL-6) gene on serum concentrations of IL-6, C-reactive protein, intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1) and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 as well as their influence on the response toa nutritional interventionwithMD.An intervention study ina high cardiovascular riskMediterranean population (314 men and 407 women) was undertaken. Participants were randomly assigned to consume a low-fat control diet or a MD supplementedwith virgin olive oil ornuts.Measureswereobtained at baseline and after a 3-mointervention period.At baseline, the COX-2 -765G.C polymorphismwas associated with lower serum IL-6 (5.85 6 4.82 in GG vs. 4.74 6 4.14 ng/L in C-allele carriers; P ¼ 0.002) and ICAM-1 (265.8 6 114.8 in GG vs. 243.0 6 107.1 mg/L in C-carriers; P ¼ 0.018) concentrations. These differences remained significant aftermultivariate adjustment. The IL-6 -174G.C polymorphism was associatedwith higher (CC vs. G-carriers) serumICAM-1concentrations in bothmenandwomenandwithhigherserumIL-6 concentrations inmen.Following the dietary intervention, no significant gene x diet interactions were found. In conclusion, although COX-2 -765G.C and IL-6 -174G.C polymorphismswere associatedwith inflammation, consuming aMD(either supplemented with virgin olive oil or nuts) reduced the concentration of inflammation markers regardless of these polymorphisms.

Equilibrium play and best response to (Stated) beliefs in constant sum games

We report experimental results on one-shot two person 3x3 constant sum games played by non-economists without previous experience in the laboratory. Although strategically our games are very similar to previous experiments in which game theory predictions fail dramatically, 80% of actions taken in our experiment coincided with the prediction of the unique Nash equilibrium in pure strategies and 73% of actions were best responses to elicited beliefs. We argue how social preferences, presentation effects and belief elicitation procedures may influence how subjects play in simple but non trivial games and explain the diferences we observe with respect to previous work.

Tomato response to a high light transmission greenhouse film

Increasing greenhouse light transmission has a positive effect not only in Northern latitudes but in Mediterranean countries as well. A greenhouse, H2, with a tetrafluoroethylene copolymer 60 microns film, (Asahi Glass company, Aflex) characterised by its high light transmission and durability was compared to another greenhouse with a co-extruded film considered as a control, H1. Tomato crop response to the increase in light during winter and summer with high temperature and light was evaluated. Light transmission in H2 remained very high in spite of the observed dust accumulation and the low angle of incidence of the winter solar radiation. Transmissivity was clearly higher for H2 (81 to 83 % throughout the season) than in the control (around 63 %). The rest of the climatic parameters were similar in both greenhouses, either in the winter or in the summer evaluations. In spite of the high solar radiation in H2, the summer temperature could be maintained at the desired levels by using evaporative cooling. Accumulated tomato yield and quality was better in the H2 greenhouse (15 % more for the winter crop and 27% more for the summer crop). Fruit size was bigger in the winter crop. As an overall conclusion, the use of high light transmissive films in Mediterranean areas is very convenient for many vegetable crops. This is valid not only in winter but in summer, provided the greenhouse has good ventilation or evaporative cooling to overcome the increase in sensible heat caused by this increase in light..

Toxic phytoplankton response to warming in two Mediterranean bays of the Ebro Delta

The analysis of the phytoplankton and environmental parameters of the time series in Alfacs and Fangar bays (north western Mediterranean) from 1990 to 2009 shows some trends. There is an increase in the average water column temperature, 0.11, 0.01, 0.80 and 0.23 ºC for spring, summer, fall and winter respectively in Alfacs Bay and 1.76, 0.71, 1.33, 0.89 ºC for spring, summer, fall and winter in Fangar Bay. The trends in phytoplankton populations show a shift in the timing of occurrence of Karlodinium spp. blooms and an increase of the Pseudo-nitzschia spp. abundances. There is a lack of correlation between the average seasonal temperatures and the toxic phytoplankton abundances.

Response to the letter to the editor by Dr van den Berg

Letters to the editor

Transplanted beta cell response to increased metabolic demand. Changes in beta cell replication and mass

We determined the capacity of transplanted beta cells to modify their replication and mass when stimulated by changes in metabolic demand. Five groups of Lewis rats were studied: group 1 (Tx-Px) had a 95% pancreatectomy 14 d after transplantation of 500 islets; group 2 (Px-Tx) had a 95% pancreatectomy 14 d before transplantation of 500 islets; group 3 (Tx) was transplanted with 500 islets; group 4 (Px) had a 95% pancreatectomy; and group 5 (normal) was neither transplanted nor pancreatectomized. Blood glucose was normal in Tx-Px and Tx groups at all times. Px-Tx and Px groups developed severe hyperglycemia after pancreatectomy that was corrected in Px-Tx group in 83% of rats 28 d after transplantation. Replication of transplanted beta cells increased in Tx-Px (1.15 +/- 0.12%) and Px-Tx (0.85 +/- 0.12%) groups, but not in Tx group (0.64 +/- 0.07%) compared with normal pancreatic beta cells (0.38 +/- 0.05%) (P < 0.001). Mean beta cell size increased in Tx-Px (311 +/- 14 microns2) and Px-Tx (328 +/- 13 microns2) groups compared with Tx (252 +/- 12 microns2) and normal (239 +/- 9 microns2) groups (P < 0.001). Transplanted beta cell mass increased in Tx-Px (1.87 +/- 0.51 mg) and Px-Tx (1.55 +/- 0.21 mg) groups compared with Tx group (0.78 +/- 0.17 mg) (P < 0.05). In summary, changes in transplanted beta cells prevented the development of hyperglycemia in Tx-Px rats. Transplanted beta cells responded to increased metabolic demand increasing their beta cell mass.

Effect of chronic ethanol feeding on rat hepatocytic glutathione. Compartmentation, efflux, and response to incubation with ethanol.

Hepatocytes from rats that were fed ethanol chronically for 6-8 wk were found to have a modest decrease in cytosolic GSH (24%) and a marked decrease in mitochondrial GSH (65%) as compared with pair-fed controls. Incubation of hepatocytes from ethanol-fed rats for 4 h in modified Fisher's medium revealed a greater absolute and fractional GSH efflux rate than controls with maintenance of constant cellular GSH, indicating increased net GSH synthesis. Inhibition of gamma-glutamyltransferase had no effect on these results, which indicates that no degradation of GSH had occurred during these studies. Enhanced fractional efflux was also noted in the perfused livers from ethanol-fed rats. Incubation of hepatocytes in medium containing up to 50 mM ethanol had no effect on cellular GSH, accumulation of GSH in the medium, or cell viability. Thus, chronic ethanol feeding causes a modest fall in cytosolic and a marked fall in mitochondrial GSH. Fractional GSH efflux and therefore synthesis are increased under basal conditions by chronic ethanol feeding, whereas the cellular concentration of GSH drops to a lower steady state level. Incubation of hepatocytes with ethanol indicates that it has no direct, acute effect on hepatic GSH homeostasis.

Fish Glucose Transporter (GLUT)-4 Differs from Rat GLUT4 in Its Traffic Characteristics but Can Translocate to the Cell Surface in Response to Insulin in Skeletal Muscle Cells

In mammals, glucose transporter (GLUT)-4 plays an important role in glucose homeostasis mediating insulin action to increase glucose uptake in insulin-responsive tissues. In the basal state, GLUT4 is located in intracellular compartments and upon insulin stimulation is recruited to the plasma membrane, allowing glucose entry into the cell. Compared with mammals, fish are less efficient restoring plasma glucose after dietary or exogenous glucose administration. Recently our group cloned a GLUT4-homolog in skeletal muscle from brown trout (btGLUT4) that differs in protein motifs believed to be important for endocytosis and sorting of mammalian GLUT4. To study the traffic of btGLUT4, we generated a stable L6 muscle cell line overexpressing myc-tagged btGLUT4 (btGLUT4myc). Insulin stimulated btGLUT4myc recruitment to the cell surface, although to a lesser extent than rat-GLUT4myc, and enhanced glucose uptake. Interestingly, btGLUT4myc showed a higher steady-state level at the cell surface under basal conditions than rat-GLUT4myc due to a higher rate of recycling of btGLUT4myc and not to a slower endocytic rate, compared with rat-GLUT4myc. Furthermore, unlike rat-GLUT4myc, btGLUT4myc had a diffuse distribution throughout the cytoplasm of L6 myoblasts. In primary brown trout skeletal muscle cells, insulin also promoted the translocation of endogenous btGLUT4 to the plasma membrane and enhanced glucose transport. Moreover, btGLUT4 exhibited a diffuse intracellular localization in unstimulated trout myocytes. Our data suggest that btGLUT4 is subjected to a different intracellular traffic from rat-GLUT4 and may explain the relative glucose intolerance observed in fish.

Contribution of S6K1/MAPK signaling pathways in the response to oxidative stress: activation of RSK and MSK by hydrogen peroxide

Cells respond to different kind of stress through the coordinated activation of signaling pathways such as MAPK or p53. To find which molecular mechanisms are involved, we need to understand their cell adaptation. The ribosomal protein, S6 kinase 1 (S6K1), is a common downstream target of signaling by hormonal or nutritional stress. Here, we investigated the initial contribution of S6K1/MAPK signaling pathways in the cell response to oxidative stress produced by hydrogen peroxide (H2O2). To analyze S6K1 activation, we used the commercial anti-phospho-Thr389-S6K1 antibody most frequently mentioned in the bibliography. We found that this antibody detected an 80-90 kDa protein that was rapidly phosphorylated in response to H2O2 in several human cells. Unexpectedly, this phosphorylation was insensitive to both mTOR and PI3K inhibitors, and knock-down experiments showed that this protein was not S6K1. RSK and MSK proteins were candidate targets of this phosphorylation. We demonstrated that H2O2 stimulated phosphorylation of RSK and MSK kinases at residues that are homologous to Thr389 in S6K1. This phosphorylation required the activity of either p38 or ERK MAP kinases. Kinase assays showed activation of RSK and MSK by H2O2. Experiments with mouse embryonic fibroblasts from p38 animals" knockout confirmed these observations. Altogether, these findings show that the S6K1 signaling pathway is not activated under these conditions, clarify previous observations probably misinterpreted by non-specific detection of proteins RSK and MSK by the anti-phospho-Thr389-S6K1 antibody, and demonstrate the specific activation of MAPK signaling pathways through ERK/p38/RSK/MSK by H2O2.