Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Real equilibrium exchange rates. A panel data approach for advanced and emerging economies.

Based on an behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model, this paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate and evaluates the degree of misalignment of a group of currencies since 1980. Within a panel cointegration setting, we estimate the relationship between exchange rate and a set of economic fundamentals, such as traded-nontraded productivity differentials and the stock of foreign assets. Having ascertained the variables are integrated and cointegrated, the long-run equilibrium value of the fundamentals are estimated and used to derive equilibrium exchange rates and misalignments. Although there is statistical homogeneity, some structural differences were found to exist between advanced and emerging economies.

Establishment of an in vitro photoassay using THP-1 cells and IL-8 to discriminate photoirritants from photoallergens

At present, there are no in vivo or in vitro methods developed which has been adopted by regulatory authorities to assess photosensitization induced by chemicals. Recently, we have proposed the use of THP-1 cells and IL-8 release to identify the potential of chemicals to induce skin sensitization. Based on the assumption that sensitization and photosensitization share common mechanisms, the aim of this work was to explore the THP-1 model as an in vitro model to identify photoallergenic chemicals. THP-1 cells were exposed to 7 photoallergens and 3 photoirritants and irradiated with UVA light or kept in dark. Non phototoxic allergens or irritants were also included as negative compounds. Following 24 h of incubation, cytotoxicity and IL-8 release were measured. At subtoxic concentrations, photoallergens produced a dose-related increase in IL-8 release after irradiation. Some photoirritants also produced a slight increase in IL-8 release. However, when the overall stimulation indexes of IL-8 were calculated for each chemical, 6 out of 7 photoallergens tested reached a stimulation index above 2, while the entire set of negative compounds had stimulation indexes below 2. Our data suggest that this assay may become a useful cell-based in vitro test for evaluating the photosensitizing potential of chemicals.

A priori parameterisation of the CERES soil-crop models and tests against several European data sets

Mechanistic soil-crop models have become indispensable tools to investigate the effect of management practices on the productivity or environmental impacts of arable crops. Ideally these models may claim to be universally applicable because they simulate the major processes governing the fate of inputs such as fertiliser nitrogen or pesticides. However, because they deal with complex systems and uncertain phenomena, site-specific calibration is usually a prerequisite to ensure their predictions are realistic. This statement implies that some experimental knowledge on the system to be simulated should be available prior to any modelling attempt, and raises a tremendous limitation to practical applications of models. Because the demand for more general simulation results is high, modellers have nevertheless taken the bold step of extrapolating a model tested within a limited sample of real conditions to a much larger domain. While methodological questions are often disregarded in this extrapolation process, they are specifically addressed in this paper, and in particular the issue of models a priori parameterisation. We thus implemented and tested a standard procedure to parameterize the soil components of a modified version of the CERES models. The procedure converts routinely-available soil properties into functional characteristics by means of pedo-transfer functions. The resulting predictions of soil water and nitrogen dynamics, as well as crop biomass, nitrogen content and leaf area index were compared to observations from trials conducted in five locations across Europe (southern Italy, northern Spain, northern France and northern Germany). In three cases, the model’s performance was judged acceptable when compared to experimental errors on the measurements, based on a test of the model’s root mean squared error (RMSE). Significant deviations between observations and model outputs were however noted in all sites, and could be ascribed to various model routines. In decreasing importance, these were: water balance, the turnover of soil organic matter, and crop N uptake. A better match to field observations could therefore be achieved by visually adjusting related parameters, such as field-capacity water content or the size of soil microbial biomass. As a result, model predictions fell within the measurement errors in all sites for most variables, and the model’s RMSE was within the range of published values for similar tests. We conclude that the proposed a priori method yields acceptable simulations with only a 50% probability, a figure which may be greatly increased through a posteriori calibration. Modellers should thus exercise caution when extrapolating their models to a large sample of pedo-climatic conditions for which they have only limited information.

Establishment of an in vitro photoassay using THP-1 cells and IL-8 to discriminate photoirritants from photoallergens

At present, there are no in vivo or in vitro methods developed which has been adopted by regulatory authorities to assess photosensitization induced by chemicals. Recently, we have proposed the use of THP-1 cells and IL-8 release to identify the potential of chemicals to induce skin sensitization. Based on the assumption that sensitization and photosensitization share common mechanisms, the aim of this work was to explore the THP-1 model as an in vitro model to identify photoallergenic chemicals. THP-1 cells were exposed to 7 photoallergens and 3 photoirritants and irradiated with UVA light or kept in dark. Non phototoxic allergens or irritants were also included as negative compounds. Following 24 h of incubation, cytotoxicity and IL-8 release were measured. At subtoxic concentrations, photoallergens produced a dose-related increase in IL-8 release after irradiation. Some photoirritants also produced a slight increase in IL-8 release. However, when the overall stimulation indexes of IL-8 were calculated for each chemical, 6 out of 7 photoallergens tested reached a stimulation index above 2, while the entire set of negative compounds had stimulation indexes below 2. Our data suggest that this assay may become a useful cell-based in vitro test for evaluating the photosensitizing potential of chemicals.

Sustainability of EU fiscal policies. A panel test

The fiscal policy rule implicit in the Stability and Growth Pact, has been rationalised as a way to ensure that national fiscal policies remain sustainable within the EU, thereby endorsing the independence of the ECB. We empirically examine the sustainability of European fiscal policies over the period 1970-2001. The intertemporal government budget constraint provides a test based on the cointegration relation between government revenues, expenditures and interest payments. Sustainability is analysed at both the national level and for a European panel. Results show that European fiscal policy has been sustainable overall, yet national experiences differ considerably.

Is real GDP stationary? Evidence from a panel unit root test with cross-sectional dependence and historical data

We use historical data that cover more than one century on real GDP for industrial countries and employ the Pesaran panel unit root test that allows for cross-sectional dependence to test for a unit root on real GDP. We find strong evidence against the unit root null. Our results are robust to the chosen group of countries and the sample period. Key words: real GDP stationarity, cross-sectional dependence, CIPS test. JEL Classification: C23, E32

Differences based on fine motor behaviour in Parkinson's patients compared to an age matched control group in proprioceptive and visuo-proprioceptive test conditions

Personality differences based on fine motor precision performance were studied in early stage Parkinson's patients and an age-matched control group under two different test conditions: proprioceptive + visual information and proprioceptive information alone. A comparative data analysis for deviations of three measured movement types (transversal, frontal and sagittal) was done for both hands (dominant and non-dominant) with relation to personality dimensions. There were found significant differences between the two groups in decision making dimension and emotionality. After splitting the data for gender subgroups, some significant differences were found for men but not for women. The differences in fine motor task performance varied, being better in some directions for the Parkinson"s patients and worse in others. The findings may suggest that medication has both positive and negative effects on motor performance and provoke personality changes, being more pronounced in men.

Likelihood-based approaches to modeling demand for medical care

We review recent likelihood-based approaches to modeling demand for medical care. A semi-nonparametric model along the lines of Cameron and Johansson's Poisson polynomial model, but using a negative binomial baseline model, is introduced. We apply these models, as well a semiparametric Poisson, hurdle semiparametric Poisson, and finite mixtures of negative binomial models to six measures of health care usage taken from the Medical Expenditure Panel survey. We conclude that most of the models lead to statistically similar results, both in terms of information criteria and conditional and unconditional prediction. This suggests that applied researchers may not need to be overly concerned with the choice of which of these models they use to analyze data on health care demand.

Markup Test Reader: eina de creació i lectura de formularis de test

El projecte exposat en aquestes pàgines és un document d'estudi, anàlisi, disseny, programació i procés de proves en la confecció d'una aplicació de creació i lectura de formularis de test. Aquesta aplicació parteix de les possibilitats de millora de les prestacions, usabilitat i escalabilitat que poden oferir les tècniques de visió en computador en aquest camp. El projecte s'ha basat en un exemple en concret per tal d'oferir una eina vàlida per a la automatització de les tasques que en una empresa de recursos humans es poden donar a l'hora de gestionar la informació dels test psicotècnics que necessiten gestionar. El projecte parteix d'unes premisses bàsiques tals com: l'ús de tècniques en visió per computador, la modularitat, el compliment d'estàndards, la facilitat d'ús i la facilitat en la gestió de canvis.

Diseño de una plataforma de lectura, test y caracterización para ROICs de rayos X basada en el microprocesador LEON

Aquest project es situa dins del marc del CNM-IMB (CSIC). Consisteix en el disseny d'un sistema de biòpsia mamaria en temps real. Per realitzar aquest sistema s’ha dissenyat una plataforma de lectura, test y caracterització pel ROIC Medipix2 que es basa en el microprocessador LEON3 i és programat sobre una FPGA.

Haar wavelets-based approach for quantifying credit portfolio losses

This paper proposes a new methodology to compute Value at Risk (VaR) for quantifying losses in credit portfolios. We approximate the cumulative distribution of the loss function by a finite combination of Haar wavelet basis functions and calculate the coefficients of the approximation by inverting its Laplace transform. The Wavelet Approximation (WA) method is specially suitable for non-smooth distributions, often arising in small or concentrated portfolios, when the hypothesis of the Basel II formulas are violated. To test the methodology we consider the Vasicek one-factor portfolio credit loss model as our model framework. WA is an accurate, robust and fast method, allowing to estimate VaR much more quickly than with a Monte Carlo (MC) method at the same level of accuracy and reliability.

Hierarchical conditional random fields for parts based models matching

A parts based model is a parametrization of an object class using a collection of landmarks following the object structure. The matching of parts based models is one of the problems where pairwise Conditional Random Fields have been successfully applied. The main reason of their effectiveness is tractable inference and learning due to the simplicity of involved graphs, usually trees. However, these models do not consider possible patterns of statistics among sets of landmarks, and thus they sufffer from using too myopic information. To overcome this limitation, we propoese a novel structure based on a hierarchical Conditional Random Fields, which we explain in the first part of this memory. We build a hierarchy of combinations of landmarks, where matching is performed taking into account the whole hierarchy. To preserve tractable inference we effectively sample the label set. We test our method on facial feature selection and human pose estimation on two challenging datasets: Buffy and MultiPIE. In the second part of this memory, we present a novel approach to multiple kernel combination that relies on stacked classification. This method can be used to evaluate the landmarks of the parts-based model approach. Our method is based on combining responses of a set of independent classifiers for each individual kernel. Unlike earlier approaches that linearly combine kernel responses, our approach uses them as inputs to another set of classifiers. We will show that we outperform state-of-the-art methods on most of the standard benchmark datasets.