How important are tobacco prices in the propensity to start and quit smoking? An analysis of smoking histories from the Spanish National Health Survey

This paper analyses the effect of tobacco prices on the propensity tostart and quit smoking using a pool of the 1993, 1995 and 1997 editionsof the Spanish National Health Surveys. The estimates for severalparametric models of the hazard rate for starting and quitting suggestthat i) The public health measures applied as of 1992 have had asignificative effect on both reducing the hazard of starting andincreasing the hazard of quitting, ii) Prices have a very weak effect onthe hazard of starting in the male population and no significant effectin the female population, iii) The price floor of cigarrettes, proxiedby the average price of a pack of black cigarrettes, has a significanteffect on the quitting hazard which is robust across specifications andapplies to both men and women. The implied price elasticity of the timeup to quitting is situated around -1.4.

Unemployment duration and workers' wage aspirations in Spain

This paper examines unemployed workers' declared willingness to work for a wage lower than the one warranted by their qualification. We analyze which personal and economic characteristics determine thiswillingness and how it changes as unemployment spells lengthen. Moreover, we also study the influence of this willingness on unemployment duration. The main results are: (i) Young workers, those less educated and those living in regions with high unemployment show a more positive attitude towards accepting lower wages while married women with a working husband show more negative attitudes; (ii) The exhaustion of unemployment benefits has positive effects in the transition probability of the attitude from negative to positive; (iii) The effect of this attitude on the unemployment hazard rate is positive but only marginally significant which may be showing that this willingness is not only reflecting the worker's reservation wage but also some unobserved heterogeneity; (iv) The negative duration dependence of the unemployment hazard rate is substantially reduced when unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for.

Sex differences in hospital readmission among colorectal cancer patients.

Background: While several studies have analysed sex and socioeconomic differences in cancer incidence and mortality, sex differences in oncological health care have been seldom considered. Objective: To investigate sex based inequalities in hospital readmission among patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Hospital Universitary in L¿Hospitalet (Barcelona, Spain). Participants: Four hundred and three patients diagnosed with colorectal between January 1996 and December 1998 were actively followed up until 2002. Main outcome measurements and methods: Hospital readmission times related to colorectal cancer after surgical procedure. Cox proportional model with random effect (frailty) was used to estimate hazard rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals of readmission time for covariates analysed. Results: Crude hazard rate ratio of hospital readmission in men was 1.61 (95% CI 1.21 to 2.15). When other significant determinants of readmission were controlled for (including Dukes¿s stage, mortality, and Charlson¿s index) a significant risk of readmission was still present for men (hazard rate ratio: 1.52, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.96). Conclusions: In the case of colorectal cancer, women are less likely than men to be readmitted to the hospital, even after controlling for tumour characteristics, mortality, and comorbidity. New studies should investigate the role of other non-clinical variable such as differences in help seeking behaviours or structural or personal sex bias in the attention given to patients.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

Background: During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia

Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Fast calculation of the CAC convolution algorithm using the multinomial distribution function

The authors focus on one of the methods for connection acceptance control (CAC) in an ATM network: the convolution approach. With the aim of reducing the cost in terms of calculation and storage requirements, they propose the use of the multinomial distribution function. This permits direct computation of the associated probabilities of the instantaneous bandwidth requirements. This in turn makes possible a simple deconvolution process. Moreover, under certain conditions additional improvements may be achieved

Momentum distribution in nuclear matter and finite nuclei

A simple method is presented to evaluate the effects of short-range correlations on the momentum distribution of nucleons in nuclear matter within the framework of the Greens function approach. The method provides a very efficient representation of the single-particle Greens function for a correlated system. The reliability of this method is established by comparing its results to those obtained in more elaborate calculations. The sensitivity of the momentum distribution on the nucleon-nucleon interaction and the nuclear density is studied. The momentum distributions of nucleons in finite nuclei are derived from those in nuclear matter using a local-density approximation. These results are compared to those obtained directly for light nuclei like 16O.

Spectral analysis of the angular distribution function of back reflectors for thin film silicon solar cells

Nowadays, one of the most important challenges to enhance the efficiency of thin film silicon solar cells is to increase the short circuit intensity by means of optical confinement methods, such as textured back-reflector structures. In this work, two possible textured structures to be used as back reflectors for n-i-p solar cells have been optically analyzed and compared to a smooth one by using a system which is able to measure the angular distribution function (ADF) of the scattered light in a wide spectral range (350-1000 nm). The accurate analysis of the ADF data corresponding to the reflector structures and to the μc-Si:H films deposited onto them allows the optical losses due to the reflector absorption and its effectiveness in increasing light absorption in the μc-Si:H layer, mainly at long wavelengths, to be quantified.

On the choice of an exchange rate regime: target zones revisited

From the classical gold standard up to the current ERM2 arrangement of the European Union, target zones have been a widely used exchange regime in contemporary history. This paper presents a benchmark model that rationalizes the choice of target zones over the rest of regimes: the fixed rate, the free float and the managed float. It is shown that the monetary authority may gain efficiency by reducing volatility of both the exchange rate and the interest rate at the same time. Furthermore, the model is consistent with some known stylized facts in the empirical literature that previous models were not able to produce, namely, the positive relation between the exchange rate and the interest rate differential, the degree of non-linearity of the function linking the exchage rate to fundamentals and the shape of the exchange rate stochastic distribution.

Probability distribution of the radionuclide half-lives

Power law distributions, a well-known model in the theory of real random variables, characterize a wide variety of natural and man made phenomena. The intensity of earthquakes, the word frequencies, the solar ares and the sizes of power outages are distributed according to a power law distribution. Recently, given the usage of power laws in the scientific community, several articles have been published criticizing the statistical methods used to estimate the power law behaviour and establishing new techniques to their estimation with proven reliability. The main object of the present study is to go in deep understanding of this kind of distribution and its analysis, and introduce the half-lives of the radioactive isotopes as a new candidate in the nature following a power law distribution, as well as a \canonical laboratory" to test statistical methods appropriate for long-tailed distributions.

Quantifying rock fabrics: a test of autocorrelation of the spatial distribution of cristals

A novel test of spatial independence of the distribution of crystals or phases in rocksbased on compositional statistics is introduced. It improves and generalizes the commonjoins-count statistics known from map analysis in geographic information systems.Assigning phases independently to objects in RD is modelled by a single-trial multinomialrandom function Z(x), where the probabilities of phases add to one and areexplicitly modelled as compositions in the K-part simplex SK. Thus, apparent inconsistenciesof the tests based on the conventional joins{count statistics and their possiblycontradictory interpretations are avoided. In practical applications we assume that theprobabilities of phases do not depend on the location but are identical everywhere inthe domain of de nition. Thus, the model involves the sum of r independent identicalmultinomial distributed 1-trial random variables which is an r-trial multinomialdistributed random variable. The probabilities of the distribution of the r counts canbe considered as a composition in the Q-part simplex SQ. They span the so calledHardy-Weinberg manifold H that is proved to be a K-1-affine subspace of SQ. This isa generalisation of the well-known Hardy-Weinberg law of genetics. If the assignmentof phases accounts for some kind of spatial dependence, then the r-trial probabilitiesdo not remain on H. This suggests the use of the Aitchison distance between observedprobabilities to H to test dependence. Moreover, when there is a spatial uctuation ofthe multinomial probabilities, the observed r-trial probabilities move on H. This shiftcan be used as to check for these uctuations. A practical procedure and an algorithmto perform the test have been developed. Some cases applied to simulated and realdata are presented.Key words: Spatial distribution of crystals in rocks, spatial distribution of phases,joins-count statistics, multinomial distribution, Hardy-Weinberg law, Hardy-Weinbergmanifold, Aitchison geometry

Cell size distribution in a random tessellation of space governed by the Kolmogorov-Johnson-Mehl-Avrami model: Grain size distribution in crystallization

The space subdivision in cells resulting from a process of random nucleation and growth is a subject of interest in many scientific fields. In this paper, we deduce the expected value and variance of these distributions while assuming that the space subdivision process is in accordance with the premises of the Kolmogorov-Johnson-Mehl-Avrami model. We have not imposed restrictions on the time dependency of nucleation and growth rates. We have also developed an approximate analytical cell size probability density function. Finally, we have applied our approach to the distributions resulting from solid phase crystallization under isochronal heating conditions

Critical ruptures in a bundle of slowly relaxing fibers

We study the damage enhanced creep rupture of disordered materials by means of a fiber bundle model. Broken fibers undergo a slow stress relaxation modeled by a Maxwell element whose stress exponent m can vary in a broad range. Under global load sharing we show that due to the strength disorder of fibers, the lifetime ʧ of the bundle has sample-to-sample fluctuations characterized by a log-normal distribution independent of the type of disorder. We determine the Monkman-Grant relation of the model and establish a relation between the rupture life tʄ and the characteristic time tm of the intermediate creep regime of the bundle where the minimum strain rate is reached, making possible reliable estimates of ʧ from short term measurements. Approaching macroscopic failure, the deformation rate has a finite time power law singularity whose exponent is a decreasing function of m. On the microlevel the distribution of waiting times is found to have a power law behavior with m-dependent exponents different below and above the critical load of the bundle. Approaching the critical load from above, the cutoff value of the distributions has a power law divergence whose exponent coincides with the stress exponent of Maxwell elements