An Interface Damage Model for the Simulation of Delamination Under Variable-Mode Ratio in Composite Materials

A thermodynamically consistent damage model for the simulation of progressive delamination under variable mode ratio is presented. The model is formulated in the context of the Damage Mechanics. The constitutive equation that results from the definition of the free energy as a function of a damage variable is used to model the initiation and propagation of delamination. A new delamination initiation criterion is developed to assure that the formulation can account for changes in the loading mode in a thermodynamically consistent way. The formulation proposed accounts for crack closure effets avoiding interfacial penetration of two adjacent layers aftercomplete decohesion. The model is implemented in a finite element formulation. The numerical predictions given by the model are compared with experimental results

GeneID in "Drosophila"

GeneID is a program to predict genes in anonymous genomic sequences designed with a hierarchical structure. In the first step, splice sites, and start and stop codons are predicted and scored along the sequence using position weight matrices (PWMs). In the second step, exons are built from the sites. Exons are scored as the sum of the scores of the defining sites, plus the log-likelihood ratio of a Markov model for coding DNA. In the last step, from the set of predicted exons, the gene structure is assembled, maximizing the sum of the scores of the assembled exons. In this paper we describe the obtention of PWMs for sites, and the Markov model of coding DNA in Drosophila melanogaster. We also compare other models of coding DNA with the Markov model. Finally, we present and discuss the results obtained when GeneID is used to predict genes in the Adh region. These results show that the accuracy of GeneID predictions compares currently with that of other existing tools but that GeneID is likely to be more efficient in terms of speed and memory usage.

Acción de algunos acaricidas sobre los fítoseídos y la araña roja Panonychus ulmi (Koch) en manzano

Se han realizado 5 ensayos en manzanos para evaluar la acción de algunos acarici­das sobre la araña roja Panonychus ulmi (Koch) y sus depredadores los fitoseidos. En 4 ensayos la especie era Amblyseius andersoni (Chant) y en la otra A. californicus (McGregor). En total se han ensayado 14 materias activas. Se observa una mayor toxicidad de los productos sobre A. californicus que sobre A. andersoni, y en esta última especie la toxicidad suele ser mayor cuando el nivel de P. ulmi es más elevado. Las materias activas que son mas tóxicas para los fitoseidos son: amitraz, bifentrin y fenpropatrin. En el caso del amitraz se observa incluso una proliferación de P. ulmi. Los productos que son menos tóxicos para los fitoseidos y que dan una mayor relación depredador/presa, a pesar de su baja eficacia sobre P. ulmi, son: benzoximato, dioctil-sulfosuccinato-sodico y fenbutestan. Los acaricidas: cihexaestan, dinobuton, hexitiazox y propargita son medianamente tóxicos para los fitoseidos, pero su poca eficacia sobre P. ulmi provoca como resultado una relación depredador/ presa más baja que el testigo. Los que dan una mayor eficacia sobre P. ulmi, pero son más tóxicos para los fi­toseidos que los productos anteriores, por lo que dan como resultado unas relaciones de­ predador/presa más irregulares son: fenazaquin, fenpiroximato, piridaben y tebufenpirad. Deben realizarse más estudios sobre las dosis, mezclas y momentos de aplicación de todos estos productos para su utilización en el control integrado de la araña roja.

Ten years after the Prestige Oil Spill: seabird trophic ecology as indicator of long-term effects on the coastal marine ecosystem

Major oil spills can have long-term impacts since oil pollution does not only result in acute mortality of marine organisms, but also affects productivity levels, predator-prey dynamics, and damages habitats that support marine communities. However, despite the conservation implications of oil accidents, the monitoring and assessment of its lasting impacts still remains a difficult and daunting task. Here, we used European shags to evaluate the overall, lasting effects of the Prestige oil spill (2002) on the affected marine ecosystem. Using δ15N and Hg analysis, we trace temporal changes in feeding ecology potentially related to alterations of the food web due to the spill. Using climatic and oceanic data, we also investigate the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the sea surface temperature (SST) and the chlorophyll a (Chl a) on the observed changes. Analysis of δ15N and Hg concentrations revealed that after the Prestige oil spill, shag chicks abruptly switched their trophic level from a diet based on a high percentage of demersal-benthic fish to a higher proportion of pelagic/semi-pelagic species. There was no evidence that Chl a, SST and NAO reflected any particular changes or severity in environmental conditions for any year or season that may explain the sudden change observed in trophic level. Thus, this study highlighted an impact on the marine food web for at least three years. Our results provide the best evidence to date of the long-term consequences of the Prestige oil spill. They also show how, regardless of wider oceanographic variability, lasting impacts on predator-prey dynamics can be assessed using biochemical markers. This is particularly useful if larger scale and longer term monitoring of all trophic levels is unfeasible due to limited funding or high ecosystem complexity.

Experimental assessment of the effects of a Neotropical nocturnal piscivore on juvenile native and invasive fishes

We experimentally examined the predator-prey relationships between juvenile spotted sorubim Pseudoplastystoma corruscans and young-of-the-year invasive and native fish species of the Paraná River basin, Brazil. Three invasive (peacock bass Cichla piquiti, Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus, and channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus) and two native (yellowtail tetra Astyanax altiparanae and streaked prochilod Prochilodus lineatus) fish species were offered as prey to P. corruscans in 300 L aquaria with three habitat complexity treatments (0%, 50% and 100% structure-covered). Prey survival was variable through time and among species (C. piquiti < O. niloticus < A. altiparanae < P. lineatus < I. punctatus), depending largely on species-specific prey behavior but also on prey size and morphological defenses. Habitat complexity did not directly affect P. corruscans piscivory but some prey species changed their microhabitat use and shoaling behavior among habitat treatments in predator’s presence. Pseudoplatystoma corruscans preyed preferentially on smaller individuals of those invasive species with weak morphological defensive features that persisted in a non-shoaling behavior. Overall, our results contrast with those in a companion experiment using a diurnal predator, suggesting that nocturnal piscivores preferentially prey on different (rather diurnal) fish species and are less affected by habitat complexity. Our findings suggest that recovering the native populations of P. corruscans might help controling some fish species introduced to the Paraná River basin, particularly C. piquiti and O. niloticus, whose parental care is expected to be weak or null at night

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

A foundation model for marxian breakdown theories based on a new falling rate of profit mechanism (Long version)

The paper presents a foundation model for Marxian theories of the breakdown of capitalism based on a new falling rate of profit mechanism. All of these theories are based on one or more of "the historical tendencies": a rising capital-wage bill ratio, a rising capitalist share and a falling rate of profit. The model is a foundation in the sense that it generates these tendencies in the context of a model with a constant subsistence wage. The newly discovered generating mechanism is based on neo-classical reasoning for a model with land. It is non-Ricardian in that land augmenting technical progress can be unboundedly rapid. Finally, since the model has no steady state, it is necessary to use a new technique, Chaplygin's method, to prove the result.

A foundation model for marxian breakdown theories based on a new falling rate of profit mechanism.

The paper presents a foundation model for Marxian theories of the breakdown of capitalism based on a new falling rate of profit mechanism. All of these theories are based on one or more of ?the historical tendencies?: a rising capital-wage bill ratio, a rising capitalist share and a falling rate of profit. The model is a foundation in the sense that it generates these tendencies in the context of a model with a constant subsistence wage. The newly discovered generating mechanism is based on neo-classical reasoning for a model with land. It is non-Ricardian in that land augmenting technical progress can be unboundedly rapid. Finally, since the model has no steady state, it is necessary to use a new technique, Chaplygin?s method, to prove the result.

Estimation of the viscoelastic properties of vessel walls using a computational model and Doppler ultrasound

Human arteries affected by atherosclerosis are characterized by altered wall viscoelastic properties. The possibility of noninvasively assessing arterial viscoelasticity in vivo would significantly contribute to the early diagnosis and prevention of this disease. This paper presents a noniterative technique to estimate the viscoelastic parameters of a vascular wall Zener model. The approach requires the simultaneous measurement of flow variations and wall displacements, which can be provided by suitable ultrasound Doppler instruments. Viscoelastic parameters are estimated by fitting the theoretical constitutive equations to the experimental measurements using an ARMA parameter approach. The accuracy and sensitivity of the proposed method are tested using reference data generated by numerical simulations of arterial pulsation in which the physiological conditions and the viscoelastic parameters of the model can be suitably varied. The estimated values quantitatively agree with the reference values, showing that the only parameter affected by changing the physiological conditions is viscosity, whose relative error was about 27% even when a poor signal-to-noise ratio is simulated. Finally, the feasibility of the method is illustrated through three measurements made at different flow regimes on a cylindrical vessel phantom, yielding a parameter mean estimation error of 25%.

Multi-scale effects of nestling diet on breeding performance in a terrestrial top predator inferred from stable isotope analysis

Inter-individual diet variation within populations is likely to have important ecological and evolutionary implications. The diet-fitness relationships at the individual level and the emerging population processes are, however, poorly understood for most avian predators inhabiting complex terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, we use an isotopic approach to assess the trophic ecology of nestlings in a long-lived raptor, the Bonelli"s eagle Aquila fasciata, and investigate whether nestling dietary breath and main prey consumption can affect the species" reproductive performance at two spatial scales: territories within populations and populations over a large geographic area. At the territory level, those breeding pairs whose nestlings consumed similar diets to the overall population (i.e. moderate consumption of preferred prey, but complemented by alternative prey categories) or those disproportionally consuming preferred prey were more likely to fledge two chicks. An increase in the diet diversity, however, related negatively with productivity. The age and replacements of breeding pair members had also an influence on productivity, with more fledglings associated to adult pairs with few replacements, as expected in long-lived species. At the population level, mean productivity was higher in those population-years with lower dietary breadth and higher diet similarity among territories, which was related to an overall higher consumption of preferred prey. Thus, we revealed a correspondence in diet-fitness relationships at two spatial scales: territories and populations. We suggest that stable isotope analyses may be a powerful tool to monitor the diet of terrestrial avian predators on large spatio-temporal scales, which could serve to detect potential changes in the availability of those prey on which predators depend for breeding. We encourage ecologists and evolutionary and conservation biologists concerned with the multi-scale fitness consequences of inter-individual variation in resource use to employ similar stable isotope-based approaches, which can be successfully applied to complex ecosystems such as the Mediterranean.

Neutron skin thickness in the droplet model with surface width dependence: Indications of softness of the nuclear symmetry energy

We analyze the neutron skin thickness in finite nuclei with the droplet model and effective nuclear interactions. The ratio of the bulk symmetry energy J to the so-called surface stiffness coefficient Q has in the droplet model a prominent role in driving the size of neutron skins. We present a correlation between the density derivative of the nuclear symmetry energy at saturation and the J/Q ratio. We emphasize the role of the surface widths of the neutron and proton density profiles in the calculation of the neutron skin thickness when one uses realistic mean-field effective interactions. Next, taking as experimental baseline the neutron skin sizes measured in 26 antiprotonic atoms along the mass table, we explore constraints arising from neutron skins on the value of the J/Q ratio. The results favor a relatively soft symmetry energy at subsaturation densities. Our predictions are compared with the recent constraints derived from other experimental observables. Though the various extractions predict different ranges of values, one finds a narrow window L∼45-75 MeV for the coefficient L that characterizes the density derivative of the symmetry energy that is compatible with all the different empirical indications.

Development of a population-based cost-effectiveness model of chronic graft versus host disease in Spain

Chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD) is the leading cause of late nonrelapse mortality (transplant-related mortality) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant. Given that there are a wide range of treatment options for cGvHD, assessment of the associated costs and efficacy can help clinicians and health care providers allocate health care resources more efficiently. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) compared with rituximab (Rmb) and with imatinib (Imt) in patients with cGvHD at 5 years from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. METHODS: The model assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness/utility ratio of ECP versus Rmb or Imt for 1000 hypothetical patients by using microsimulation cost-effectiveness techniques. Model probabilities were obtained from the literature. Treatment pathways and adverse events were evaluated taking clinical opinion and published reports into consideration. Local data on costs (2010 Euros) and health care resources utilization were validated by the clinical authors. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the model. RESULTS: The greater efficacy of ECP resulted in a gain of 0.011 to 0.024 quality-adjusted life-year in the first year and 0.062 to 0.094 at year 5 compared with Rmb or Imt. The results showed that the higher acquisition cost of ECP versus Imt was compensated for at 9 months by greater efficacy; this higher cost was partially compensated for ( 517) by year 5 versus Rmb. After 9 months, ECP was dominant (cheaper and more effective) compared with Imt. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ECP versus Rmb was 29,646 per life-year gained and 24,442 per quality-adjusted life-year gained at year 2.5. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the results. The main study limitation was that to assess relative treatment effects, only small studies were available for indirect comparison. CONCLUSION: ECP as a third-line therapy for cGvHD is a more cost-effective strategy than Rmb or Imt.

Small but powerful: Top predator local extinction affects ecosystem structure and function in an intermittent stream.

Top predator loss is a major global problem, with a current trend in biodiversity loss towards high trophic levels that modifies most ecosystems worldwide. Most research in this area is focused on large-bodied predators, despite the high extinction risk of small-bodied freshwater fish that often act as apex consumers. Consequently, it remains unknown if intermittent streams are affected by the consequences of top-predators' extirpations. The aim of our research was to determine how this global problem affects intermittent streams and, in particular, if the loss of a small-bodied top predator (1) leads to a 'mesopredator release', affects primary consumers and changes whole community structures, and (2) triggers a cascade effect modifying the ecosystem function. To address these questions, we studied the topdown effects of a small endangered fish species, Barbus meridionalis (the Mediterranean barbel), conducting an enclosure/exclosure mesocosm experiment in an intermittent stream where B. meridionalis became locally extinct following a wildfire.We found that top predator absence led to 'mesopredator release', and also to 'prey release' despite intraguild predation, which contrasts with traditional food web theory. In addition, B. meridionalis extirpation changed whole macroinvertebrate community composition and increased total macroinvertebrate density. Regarding ecosystem function, periphyton primary production decreased in apex consumer absence. In this study, the apex consumer was functionally irreplaceable; its local extinction led to the loss of an important functional role that resulted in major changes to the ecosystem's structure and function. This study evidences that intermittent streams can be affected by the consequences of apex consumers' extinctions, and that the loss of small-bodied top predators can lead to large ecosystem changes. We recommend the reintroduction of small-bodied apex consumers to systems where they have been extirpated, to restore ecosystem structure and function.