Conflicto de intereses: agencias de rating, reguladores, países y empresas

Les agencies de qualificació de riscos son una peça fonamental en el engranatge del sistema financer internacional. Arreu de la crisi financera es detecten conflictes d’interès entre aquestes i la resta de agents econòmics, generat per un canvi en el model de cobro. El document explica com s’ha generat aquest problema, la resposta del mercat i de les pròpies agencies de rating i exposa també les noves propostes regulatòries per a corregir-lo.

A Spanish version of the short Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (sMARS)

The aim of this studywas to adapt and assess the psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the sMARS in terms of evidence of validity and reliability of scores. The sMARS was administered to 342 students and, in order to assess convergent and discriminant validity, several subsamples completed a series of related tests. The factorial structure of the sMARSwas analyzed by means of a confirmatory factor analysis and results showed that the three-factor structure reported in the original test fits well with the data. Thus, three dimensions were established in the test: math test, numerical task and math course anxiety. The results of this study provide sound evidence that demonstrates the good psychometric properties of the scores of the Spanish version of the sMARS: strong internal consistency, high 7-week testretest reliability and good convergent/discriminant validity were evident. Overall, this study provides an instrument that allows us to obtain valid and reliable math anxiety measurements. This instrument may be a useful tool for educators and psychologists interested in identifying individuals that may have a low level of math mastery because of their anxiety.

A priori ratemaking using bivariate poisson regression models

In automobile insurance, it is useful to achieve a priori ratemaking by resorting to gene- ralized linear models, and here the Poisson regression model constitutes the most widely accepted basis. However, insurance companies distinguish between claims with or without bodily injuries, or claims with full or partial liability of the insured driver. This paper exa- mines an a priori ratemaking procedure when including two di®erent types of claim. When assuming independence between claim types, the premium can be obtained by summing the premiums for each type of guarantee and is dependent on the rating factors chosen. If the independence assumption is relaxed, then it is unclear as to how the tari® system might be a®ected. In order to answer this question, bivariate Poisson regression models, suitable for paired count data exhibiting correlation, are introduced. It is shown that the usual independence assumption is unrealistic here. These models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database containing 80,994 contracts belonging to a Spanish insurance company. Finally, the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using a bivariate Poisson regression model are analysed.

Interoperability issues between learning object repositories and metadata harvesters

In this paper we describe an open learning object repository on Statistics based on DSpace which contains true learning objects, that is, exercises, equations, data sets, etc. This repository is part of a large project intended to promote the use of learning object repositories as part of the learning process in virtual learning environments. This involves the creation of a new user interface that provides users with additional services such as resource rating, commenting and so. Both aspects make traditional metadata schemes such as Dublin Core to be inadequate, as there are resources with no title or author, for instance, as those fields are not used by learners to browse and search for learning resources in the repository. Therefore, exporting OAI-PMH compliant records using OAI-DC is not possible, thus limiting the visibility of the learning objects in the repository outside the institution. We propose an architecture based on ontologies and the use of extended metadata records for both storing and refactoring such descriptions.

Tractament psicològic del dolor crònic en nens i adolescents

L'objectiu d'aquest projecte és que els nens i adolescents amb dolor crònic puguin gaudir d'una millor qualitat de vida. El projecte té dues línies de recerca complementàries. El primer objectiu específic és crear i adaptar instruments per avaluar l’experiència dolorosa a la població infantil. Dues són les mesures que s'han estudiat en escolars: l'escala numèrica verbal (vNRS-11) tant en paper com en format electrònic, i una versió modificada de la versió pediàtrica del Survey of Pain Attitudes (Peds-SOPA). El segon objectiu específic és avaluar els efectes de la teràpia cognitiva (TC) en una mostra de nens de 12 a 18 anys que pateixen dolor crònic. En concret, volem estudiar si algunes característiques personals i familiars dels joves (per exemple, creences relacionades amb la salut, intensitat del dolor, estratègies d'afrontament, expectatives del tractament) estan associades a l'adherència a les recomanacions terapèutiques i, en conseqüència, són variables que afavoreixen la recuperació d’aquests pacients. Un tractament de 10 sessions es porta a terme per aconseguir aquest objectiu. S’ofereix als pacients un conjunt d'habilitats i estratègies específiques per a què puguin exercir un major control dels seus símptomes i reduir l'impacte d'aquests en les seves vides. Els resultats d'aquests estudis seran de gran interès per millorar el maneig del dolor infantil. A més, els resultats determinaran quines són les variables associades amb l’adherència a les prescripcions terapèutiques. Aquest és un tema particularment d’interès pel fet de que un factor determinant de l’èxit clínic és el grau en què una persona s'adhereix a les recomanacions. D'altra banda, el desenvolupament de les mesures de dolor pediàtric és de gran rellevància tant per a clínics com per a investigadors, ja que moltes de les decisions clíniques es basen en allò que el pacient ha informat sobre el seu dolor.

Moderating effects of management control systems and innovation on performance. Simple methods for correcting the effects of measurement error for interaction effects in small samples

In the accounting literature, interaction or moderating effects are usually assessed by means of OLS regression and summated rating scales are constructed to reduce measurement error bias. Structural equation models and two-stage least squares regression could be used to completely eliminate this bias, but large samples are needed. Partial Least Squares are appropriate for small samples but do not correct measurement error bias. In this article, disattenuated regression is discussed as a small sample alternative and is illustrated on data of Bisbe and Otley (in press) that examine the interaction effect of innovation and style of use of budgets on performance. Sizeable differences emerge between OLS and disattenuated regression

Inter-rater agreement and reliability of the COSMIN (COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health status Measurement Instruments) Checklist

Background: The COSMIN checklist is a tool for evaluating the methodological quality of studies on measurement properties of health-related patient-reported outcomes. The aim of this study is to determine the inter-rater agreement and reliability of each item score of the COSMIN checklist (n = 114). Methods: 75 articles evaluating measurement properties were randomly selected from the bibliographic database compiled by the Patient-Reported Outcome Measurement Group, Oxford, UK. Raters were asked to assess the methodological quality of three articles, using the COSMIN checklist. In a one-way design, percentage agreement and intraclass kappa coefficients or quadratic-weighted kappa coefficients were calculated for each item. Results: 88 raters participated. Of the 75 selected articles, 26 articles were rated by four to six participants, and 49 by two or three participants. Overall, percentage agreement was appropriate (68% was above 80% agreement), and the kappa coefficients for the COSMIN items were low (61% was below 0.40, 6% was above 0.75). Reasons for low inter-rater agreement were need for subjective judgement, and accustom to different standards, terminology and definitions.Conclusions: Results indicated that raters often choose the same response option, but that it is difficult on item level to distinguish between articles. When using the COSMIN checklist in a systematic review, we recommend getting some training and experience, completing it by two independent raters, and reaching consensus on one final rating. Instructions for using the checklist are improved.

The credit ratings game

The spectacular failure of top-rated structured finance products has broughtrenewed attention to the conflicts of interest of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs). We modelboth the CRA conflict of understating credit risk to attract more business, and the issuerconflict of purchasing only the most favorable ratings (issuer shopping), and examine theeffectiveness of a number of proposed regulatory solutions of CRAs. We find that CRAs aremore prone to inflate ratings when there is a larger fraction of naive investors in the marketwho take ratings at face value, or when CRA expected reputation costs are lower. To theextent that in booms the fraction of naive investors is higher, and the reputation risk forCRAs of getting caught understating credit risk is lower, our model predicts that CRAs aremore likely to understate credit risk in booms than in recessions. We also show that, due toissuer shopping, competition among CRAs in a duopoly is less efficient (conditional on thesame equilibrium CRA rating policy) than having a monopoly CRA, in terms of both totalex-ante surplus and investor surplus. Allowing tranching decreases total surplus further.We argue that regulatory intervention requiring upfront payments for rating services (beforeCRAs propose a rating to the issuer) combined with mandatory disclosure of any ratingproduced by CRAs can substantially mitigate the con.icts of interest of both CRAs andissuers.

The credit ratings game

The collapse of so many AAA-rated structured finance products in 2007-2008has brought renewed attention to the causes of ratings failures and the conflicts of interestin the Credit Ratings Industry. We provide a model of competition among Credit RatingsAgencies (CRAs) in which there are three possible sources of conflicts: 1) the CRA conflictof interest of understating credit risk to attract more business; 2) the ability of issuersto purchase only the most favorable ratings; and 3) the trusting nature of some investorclienteles who may take ratings at face value. We show that when combined, these give riseto three fundamental equilibrium distortions. First, competition among CRAs can reducemarket efficiency, as competition facilitates ratings shopping by issuers. Second, CRAs aremore prone to inflate ratings in boom times, when there are more trusting investors, andwhen the risks of failure which could damage CRA reputation are lower. Third, the industrypractice of tranching of structured products distorts market efficiency as its role is to deceivetrusting investors. We argue that regulatory intervention requiring: i) upfront paymentsfor rating services (before CRAs propose a rating to the issuer), ii) mandatory disclosure ofany rating produced by CRAs, and iii) oversight of ratings methodology can substantiallymitigate ratings inflation and promote efficiency.

Herramientas estadísticas para el estudio de perfiles de riesgo

En este documento se ilustra de un modo práctico, el empleo de tres instrumentos que permiten al actuario definir grupos arancelarios y estimar premios de riesgo en el proceso que tasa la clase para el seguro de no vida. El primero es el análisis de segmentación (CHAID y XAID) usado en primer lugar en 1997 por UNESPA en su cartera común de coches. El segundo es un proceso de selección gradual con el modelo de regresión a base de distancia. Y el tercero es un proceso con el modelo conocido y generalizado de regresión linear, que representa la técnica más moderna en la bibliografía actuarial. De estos últimos, si combinamos funciones de eslabón diferentes y distribuciones de error, podemos obtener el aditivo clásico y modelos multiplicativos

Valoración de credit default swaps: una aplicación del modelo de Hull-White al mercado español

En este trabajo se presenta una aplicación empírica del modelo de Hull-White (2000) al mercado de renta fija español. Este modelo proporciona la expresión por el cálculo de los pagos hechos por el comprador de un credit default swap (CDS), bajo la hipótesis de que no existe riesgo de contrapartida. Se supone, además, que la curva cupón cero, la tasa de recuperación constante y el momento del suceso de crédito son independientes. Se utilizan bonos del Banco Santander Central Hispano para mesurar la probabilidad neutra al riesgo de quiebra y, bajo hipótesis de no arbitraje, se calculan las primas de un CDS, por un bono subyacente con la misma calificación crediticia que la entidad de referencia. Se observa que las primas se ajustan bien a los spreads crediticios del mercado, que se acostumbran a utilizar como alternativa a las mismas.

Herramientas estadísticas para el estudio de perfiles de riesgo

En este documento se ilustra de un modo práctico, el empleo de tres instrumentos que permiten al actuario definir grupos arancelarios y estimar premios de riesgo en el proceso que tasa la clase para el seguro de no vida. El primero es el análisis de segmentación (CHAID y XAID) usado en primer lugar en 1997 por UNESPA en su cartera común de coches. El segundo es un proceso de selección gradual con el modelo de regresión a base de distancia. Y el tercero es un proceso con el modelo conocido y generalizado de regresión linear, que representa la técnica más moderna en la bibliografía actuarial. De estos últimos, si combinamos funciones de eslabón diferentes y distribuciones de error, podemos obtener el aditivo clásico y modelos multiplicativos

Valoración de credit default swaps: una aplicación del modelo de Hull-White al mercado español

En este trabajo se presenta una aplicación empírica del modelo de Hull-White (2000) al mercado de renta fija español. Este modelo proporciona la expresión por el cálculo de los pagos hechos por el comprador de un credit default swap (CDS), bajo la hipótesis de que no existe riesgo de contrapartida. Se supone, además, que la curva cupón cero, la tasa de recuperación constante y el momento del suceso de crédito son independientes. Se utilizan bonos del Banco Santander Central Hispano para mesurar la probabilidad neutra al riesgo de quiebra y, bajo hipótesis de no arbitraje, se calculan las primas de un CDS, por un bono subyacente con la misma calificación crediticia que la entidad de referencia. Se observa que las primas se ajustan bien a los spreads crediticios del mercado, que se acostumbran a utilizar como alternativa a las mismas.

Evaluar el trabajo con foros electrónicos: propuesta de un sistema

[spa] El presente texto resume la estrategia y resultados del trabajo con foros electrónicos entre octubre y diciembre del 2006 en dos grupos de una asignatura de la licenciatura de Pedagogía de la Universidad de Barcelona. En continuidad con proyectos anteriores, se partió de un objetivo inicial: facilitar un sistema de evaluación transparente y compartida con los estudiantes al usar el foro electrónico de la asignatura como instrumento de aprendizaje colaborativo.

L'avaluació de l'alumnat a la universitat

En les últimes dècades, en el camp de l'avaluació en general i, en particular, en el de l'avaluació dels aprenentatges, s'hi reflecteixen importants transformacions. Moltes raons justifiquen aquests canvis projectats en l'àmbit universitari. Podem indicar-ne com a rellevants els següents: a) La incorporació ineludible de nous objectius d'aprenentatge que la societat de la informació requereix dels professionals universitaris: capacitat de transferència, de treballar en grup i en xarxa; habilitats per seleccionar informació i per autoformar-se; saber desenvolupar comportaments d'autonomia, etc. Tots aquests objectius d'aprenentatge són competències que van més enllà del que ofereixen els tradicionals procediments d'avaluació. b) El desenvolupament de noves estratègies d'avaluació (mapes conceptuals, portafolis, etc. ) que posen en joc habilitats complexes i processos metacognitius, més d'acord amb les noves competències professionals i personals. A l'article s'analitzen diferents plantejaments d'avaluació de l'alumnat en l'àmbit universitari, distingint diferents modalitats i presentant tècniques, tant de tipus tradicionals com noves.