Rain and the democratic window of opportunity

According to the economic approach to politicaltransitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a windowof opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theoryrequires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. Weuse rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find thatnegative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement indemocratic institutions. Instrumental variables estimates indicate thatfollowing a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent,democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and theprobability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentagepoints.

Proposal of three thermodynamic variables to discriminate between storms associated with hail and storms with intense rainfall in Catalonia (Proposta de tres variables termodinàmiques per discriminar entre tempestes amb pedregades i tempestes amb pluges intenses)

Between late spring and early fall, the development of storms is common in Catalonia. Despite the fact that they usually produce heavy showers of short duration, they can also involve severe weather with ice pellets or hail. While the latter usually affect inland regions, and there are numerous publications on these cases; the analysis of events affecting the coast and causing damage to public and private properties is not so well developed. The aim of this study is to provide additional thermodynamic indicators that help differentiate storms with hail from storms without hail, considering cases that have affected various regions of Catalonia, mainly coastal areas. The aim is to give more information to improve prognosis and the ability to detail information in these situations. The procedure developed involved the study of several episodes of heavy rainfall and hail that hit Catalonia during the 2003-2009 period, mainly in the province of Girona, and validated the proposal during the campaign of late summer and fall of 2009, as well as 2012. For each case, several variables related to temperature, humidity and wind were analyzed at different levels of the atmosphere, while the information provided by the radio sounding in Barcelona was also taken into account. From this study, it can be concluded that the temperature difference between 500 hPa and 850 hPa, the humidity in the lower layers of the atmosphere and the LI index are good indicators for the detection of storms with associated hail.

Preface: Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events: uncertainties and propagation on environment (the MEDUP project)

The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, partly due to its quite unique character that results both from physiographic conditions and societal development. The region features indeed a near-closed sea surrounded by very urbanised littorals and mountains from which numerous rivers originate. This results in a lot of interactions and feedbacks between oceanic-atmospheric-hydrological processes that play a predominant role on climate and extreme events that frequently cause heavy dam- ages and human losses in the Mediterranean ...

Towards a database on societal impact of Mediterranean floods in the framework of the HYMEX project

The NW Mediterranean region experiences every year heavy rainfall and flash floods that occasionally produce catastrophic damages. Less frequent are floods that affect large regions. Although a large number of databases devoted exclusively to floods or considering all kind of natural hazards do exist, usually they only record catastrophic flood events. This paper deals with the new flood database that is being developed within the framework of HYMEX project. Results are focused on four regions representative of the NW sector of Mediterranean Europe: Catalonia, Spain; the Balearic Islands, Spain; Calabria, Italy; and Languedoc-Roussillon, Midi-Pyrenées and PACA, France. The common available 30-yr period starts in 1981 and ends in 2010. The paper shows the database structure and criteria, the comparison with other flood databases, some statistics on spatial and temporal distribution, and an identification of the most important events. The paper also provides a table that includes the date and affected region of all the catastrophic events identified in the regions of study, in order to make this information available for all audiences.

Characteristics of 2D convective structures in Catalonia (NE Spain): an analysis using radar data and GIS

Flood simulation studies use spatial-temporal rainfall data input into distributed hydrological models. A correct description of rainfall in space and in time contributes to improvements on hydrological modelling and design. This work is focused on the analysis of 2-D convective structures (rain cells), whose contribution is especially significant in most flood events. The objective of this paper is to provide statistical descriptors and distribution functions for convective structure characteristics of precipitation systems producing floods in Catalonia (NE Spain). To achieve this purpose heavy rainfall events recorded between 1996 and 2000 have been analysed. By means of weather radar, and applying 2-D radar algorithms a distinction between convective and stratiform precipitation is made. These data are introduced and analyzed with a GIS. In a first step different groups of connected pixels with convective precipitation are identified. Only convective structures with an area greater than 32 km2 are selected. Then, geometric characteristics (area, perimeter, orientation and dimensions of the ellipse), and rainfall statistics (maximum, mean, minimum, range, standard deviation, and sum) of these structures are obtained and stored in a database. Finally, descriptive statistics for selected characteristics are calculated and statistical distributions are fitted to the observed frequency distributions. Statistical analyses reveal that the Generalized Pareto distribution for the area and the Generalized Extreme Value distribution for the perimeter, dimensions, orientation and mean areal precipitation are the statistical distributions that best fit the observed ones of these parameters. The statistical descriptors and the probability distribution functions obtained are of direct use as an input in spatial rainfall generators.

Economic shocks and civil conflict: A comment

Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) argue that lowerrainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflictrisk in Sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on theirfinding of a negative correlation between conflict in t andrainfall growth between t-1 and t-2. I argue that this findingis driven by a positive correlation between conflict in t andrainfall levels in t-2. If lower rainfall levels or negativerainfall shocks increased conflict, one might have expectedMSS s finding to reflect a negative correlation betweenconflict in t and rainfall levels in t-1. In the latest data,conflict is unrelated to rainfall.

Rainfall is a risk factor for sporadic cases of Legionella pneumophila Pneumonia

It is not known whether rainfall increases the risk of sporadic cases of Legionella pneumonia. We sought to test this hypothesis in a prospective observational cohort study of non-immunosuppressed adults hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia (1995-2011). Cases with Legionella pneumonia were compared with those with non-Legionella pneumonia. Using daily rainfall data obtained from the regional meteorological service we examined patterns of rainfall over the days prior to admission in each study group. Of 4168 patients, 231 (5.5%) had Legionella pneumonia. The diagnosis was based on one or more of the following: sputum (41 cases), antigenuria (206) and serology (98). Daily rainfall average was 0.556 liters/m2 in the Legionella pneumonia group vs. 0.328 liters/m2 for non-Legionella pneumonia cases (p = 0.04). A ROC curve was plotted to compare the incidence of Legionella pneumonia and the weighted median rainfall. The cut-off point was 0.42 (AUC 0.54). Patients who were admitted to hospital with a prior weighted median rainfall higher than 0.42 were more likely to have Legionella pneumonia (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.02-1.78; p = .03). Spearman Rho correlations revealed a relationship between Legionella pneumonia and rainfall average during each two-week reporting period (0.14; p = 0.003). No relationship was found between rainfall average and non-Legionella pneumonia cases (−0.06; p = 0.24). As a conclusion, rainfall is a significant risk factor for sporadic Legionella pneumonia. Physicians should carefully consider Legionella pneumonia when selecting diagnostic tests and antimicrobial therapy for patients presenting with CAP after periods of rainfall.

Engineering Geology for Society and Territory: volume 2: landslide processes

This book is one out of 8 IAEG XII Congress volumes, and deals with Landslide processes, including: field data and monitoring techniques, prediction and forecasting of landslide occurrence, regional landslide inventories and dating studies, modeling of slope instabilities and secondary hazards (e.g. impulse waves and landslide-induced tsunamis, landslide dam failures and breaching), hazard and risk assessment, earthquake and rainfall induced landslides, instabilities of volcanic edifices, remedial works and mitigation measures, development of innovative stabilization techniques and applicability to specific engineering geological conditions, use of geophysical techniques for landslide characterization and investigation of triggering mechanisms. Focuses is given to innovative techniques, well documented case studies in different environments, critical components of engineering geological and geotechnical investigations, hydrological and hydrogeological investigations, remote sensing and geophysical techniques, modeling of triggering, collapse, runout and landslide reactivation, geotechnical design and construction procedures in landslide zones, interaction of landslides with structures and infrastructures and possibility of domino effects. The Engineering Geology for Society and Territory volumes of the IAEG XII Congress held in Torino from September 15-19, 2014, analyze the dynamic role of engineering geology in our changing world and build on the four main themes of the congress: environment, processes, issues, and approaches.

Estudi amb georadar del jaciment arqueològic de Lady Field (Woolston Manor Farm, Somerset, Gran Bretanya)

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada al University of Bristol, Gran Bretanya, durant agost i setembre del 2007. Els objectius del projecte d’estudi del jaciment de Lady Field (Woolston Manor Farm, Somerset, Gran Bretanya) eren, bàsicament, tres: en primer lloc, posar en pràctica els coneixements teòrics assolits durant la formació en prospecció geofísica; en segon lloc, aportar informació complementària a la aportada per la prospecció tradicional i el sondeig amb gradiòmetre magnètic efectuades prèviament per l’equip investigador del centre, arribant a definir millor les estructures poc definides per l’altre sistema i, finalment, obtenir un cas d’estudi sobre un jaciment medieval a Gran Bretanya, on les condicions geològiques i climàtiques, que afecten els resultats de la prospecció, són diferents a les del nostre país. Aquests objectius s’han assolit, ja que s’ha pogut portar a terme una prospecció de camp amb el sistema de georadar, processar les dades i obtenir-ne dades de qualitat i obtenir informació útil i rellevant de cara a la definició de les restes detectades, una vegada feta la interpretació. Els resultats mostren l’aparició en el subsòl del jaciment de quatre possibles fases d’ocupació, entre les que destaquen un moment amb possibles restes d’una antiga xarxa urbana, treballs agrícoles o un sistema de drenatge del terreny. Finalment l’estudi ha pogut constatar que la prospecció amb GPR en aquestes condicions geològiques és possible, tot i que les climàtiques –essencialment la pluja i la humitat del sòl- suposen complicacions a l’hora d’adquirir dades de forma segura per la maquinària i per la qualitat de les dades.

Diversity of the bacterial community in the surface soil of a pear orchard based on 16S rRNA gene analysis

A cultivation-independent approach based on polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-amplified partial small subunit rRNA genes was used to characterize bacterial populations in the surface soil of a commercial pear orchard consisting of different pear cultivars during two consecutive growing seasons. Pyrus communis L. cvs Blanquilla, Conference, and Williams are among the most widely cultivated cultivars in Europe and account for the majority of pear production in Northeastern Spain. To assess the heterogeneity of the community structure in response to environmental variables and tree phenology, bacterial populations were examined using PCR-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) followed by cluster analysis of the 16S ribosomal DNA profiles by means of the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic means. Similarity analysis of the band patterns failed to identify characteristic fingerprints associated with the pear cultivars. Both environmentally and biologically based principal-component analyses showed that the microbial communities changed significantly throughout the year depending on temperature and, to a lesser extent, on tree phenology and rainfall. Prominent DGGE bands were excised and sequenced to gain insight into the identities of the predominant bacterial populations. Most DGGE band sequences were related to bacterial phyla, such as Bacteroidetes, Cyanobacteria, Acidobacteria, Proteobacteria, Nitrospirae, and Gemmatimonadetes, previously associated with typical agronomic crop environments

Aportació al coneixement de la dinàmica fluvial en la conca del riu Onyar (Girona)

Two decay rates are distinguished in the discharge hydrograph of the Onyar River, using Maillet's formula. In this way, we can know which Kina of influence is made by geomorphology and rainfall distribution on fluvial processes

Determinación de sistemas de flujo regionales y locales en las depresiones tectónicas del Baix Empordà y La Selva (NE de España) en base a datos hidroquímicos e isotópicos

The Baix Empordà-Selva-Gavarres aquifer system is related to the fault set that created the tectonic basins of Empordà and Selva areas (NE Spain) during the Neogene. In this work, we describe groundwater hydrogeological, hydrochemical and isotopical (3H, δD, δ18O, and the 87Sr/86Sr ratio) characteristics of this system in order to illustrate the relevance of fault zones in groundwater flow-paths and the recharge. In that way, we identify two flow systems, with distinct hydrochemistry and isotopes. A local flow system originates at the Gavarres Range, and it flows towards the basins of the Baix Empordà and Selva, with an approximate residence time of 20 years. Additionally, a regional flow system has only been identified in the Selva basin. This one is related to the main fault zones, as preferential flow paths. Its recharge is located in mountain ranges with higher altitudes, namely the Transversal and Guilleries Ranges, with residence times larger than 50 years. Isotopical data has also shown mixing processes between both flow systems and rainfall recharge while multivariate statistical analysis of principal components has shown the main processes that control hydrochemistry of each flow systems

Preliminary results of the Social Impact Research Group of MEDEX: the request database (2000-2002) of two Meteorological Services

One of the aims of the MEDEX project is to improve the knowledge of high-impact weather events in the Mediterranean. According to the guidelines of this project, a pilot study was carried out in two regions of Spain (the Balearic Islands and Catalonia) by the Social Impact Research group of MEDEX. The main goal is to suggest some general and suitable criteria about how to analyse requests received in Meteorological Services arising out of the damage caused by weather events. Thus, all the requests received between 2000 and 2002 at the Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya as well as at the Division of AEMET in the Balearic Islands were analysed. Firstly, the proposed criteria in order to build the database are defined and discussed. Secondly, the temporal distribution of the requests for damage claims is analysed. On average, almost half of them were received during the first month after the event happened. During the first six months, the percentage increases by 90%. Thirdly, various factors are taken into account to determine the impact of specific events on society. It is remarkable that the greatest number of requests is for those episodes with simultaneous heavy rain and strong wind, and finally, those that are linked to high population density.

Estudi de la contaminació per nitrats a les aigües subterrànies de Catalunya: l'Alt Penedès, el Baix Camp, el Baix Empordà, el Baix Penedès, la Garrotxa, el Maresme, Osona, el Pla de l'Estany, la Segarra, el Segrià, el Tarragonès i l'Urgell

La contaminació per nitrats de les aigües subterrànies és un dels problemes mediambientals i de salut pública que més afecten els nostres aqüífers. És per això que un dels eixos del nostre estudi és fer la màxima difusió de l’estat de la qualitat de l’aigua dels aqüífers de diferents àrees de Catalunya. En el present estudi es tracta la contaminació per nitrats a les aigües de 945 punts de mostreig (sobretot d’aigua procedent de pous, d’algunes mines i d’algunes fonts) de Catalunya, situats en 12 comarques diferents, totes elles amb algun o una gran part dels seus municipis englobats en una zona vulnerable. D’aquests punts de mostreig s’ha fet un recull de dades de la concentració de nitrats des de l’any 2003 fins el 2012 per tal d’estudiar-ne l’evolució i la incidència de la pluviometria, així com conèixer en quines comarques les variables externes: superfície agrària útil (SAU), explotacions agràries i cabana porcina i bovina poden haver incidit directament en la contaminació. També s’estudia fins a quin punt, aquest deteriorament, ha afectat la mineralització de l’aigua o afecta a llocs d’aigües més mineralitzades. A partir dels resultats obtinguts s’ha arribat a les conclusions que la concentració mitjana de nitrats a les aigües subterrànies en la majoria de comarques estudiades és elevada, superior als 50 mg/l que estableix la normativa vigent; que ha tendit a l’estabilitat en els últims deu anys; que afecta llocs d’aigües molt mineralitzades i que la pluviometria incideix notablement en la concentració de nitrats. S’ha observat que les variables externes superfície agrària útil (SAU), explotacions agràries i cabana porcina i bovina incideixen directament en la contaminació, excepte al Maresme. Finalment es presenten diferents usos alternatius als de l’aigua de consum per aquestes aigües contaminades amb nitrats i que han posat en pràctica diferents municipis de les comarques estudiades.

Efecte del canvi climàtic sobre la ramaderia ecològica al Pirineu Occidental de Catalunya

Per tal d’arribar a la conclusió de si realment el Canvi climàtic és un factor limitant en el de venir de la Ramaderia ecològica al Pirineu Català, es proposen un seguit d’enquestes als afectats reals; els ramaders. La intenció és veure la percepció que se’n té i comparar-la amb la realitat de canvi climàtic, i més en zones d’alta muntanya: pujada de temperatures, disminució de la pluja i sequera, i desgel i tardança de les nevades. També el tema de l’erosió del sòl és de vital importància pel seu tractament. Cal desenvolupar una sèrie de millores per combatre els problemes de canvis climàtics, tot i que no són l’únic mal de cap del ramaders.