Dynamic stackelberg game with risk-averse players: optimal risk-sharing under asymmetric information

The objective of this paper is to clarify the interactive nature of the leader-follower relationship when both players are endogenously risk-averse. The analysis is placed in the context of a dynamic closed-loop Stackelberg game with private information. The case of a risk-neutral leader, very often discussed in the literature, is only a borderline possibility in the present study. Each player in the game is characterized by a risk-averse type which is unknown to his opponent. The goal of the leader is to implement an optimal incentive compatible risk-sharing contract. The proposed approach provides a qualitative analysis of adaptive risk behavior profiles for asymmetrically informed players in the context of dynamic strategic interactions modelled as incentive Stackelberg games.

Preventive medicine for epidemic outbreaks and risky behavior through mobile devices and ubiquitous computing

In this work, we have developed the first free software for mobile devices with the Android operating system that can preventively mitigate the number of contagions of sexually transmitted infections (STI), associated with risk behavior. This software runs in two modes. The normal mode allows the user to see the alerts and nearby health centers. The second mode enables the service to work in the background. This software reports the health risks, as well as the location of different test centers.

Prevención de propagación de epidemias usando dispositivos inteligentes, mediante el análisis de lenguaje natural, para detectar comportamientos de riesgo en las redes sociales

El presente trabajo proporciona un nivel de ayuda para los usuarios de aplicaciones sociales, brindándoles un criterio adicional al momento de contactar a otra persona, apoyando al usuario con advertencias sobre algún comportamiento de riesgo de sus contactos y fomentando así la prevención de enfermedades.

The risk of divorce and household saving behavior

We analyze the impact of an increase in the risk of divorce on the savingbehaviour of married couples. From a theoretical perspective, the expected sign of theeffect is ambiguous. We take advantage of the legalization of divorce in Ireland in 1996as an exogenous increase in the likelihood of marital dissolution. We analyze the savingbehaviour over time of couples who were married before the law was passed. We proposea difference-in-differences approach where we use as comparison groups either marriedcouples in other European countries (not affected by the law change), or Irish familieswho did not experience a significant increase in the expected risk of divorce (such as veryreligious families, or single individuals). Our results suggest that the increase in the riskof divorce brought about by the law was followed by an increase in the propensity to saveof married couples, consistent with a rise in precautionary savings interpretation. Anincrease in the risk of marital dissolution of about 40 percent led to a 7 to 13 percent risein the proportion of married couples reporting positive savings.

Improving the risk concept: a revision of Arrow-Pratt theory in the context of controlled dynamic stochastic environments

In the literature on risk, one generally assume that uncertainty is uniformly distributed over the entire working horizon, when the absolute risk-aversion index is negative and constant. From this perspective, the risk is totally exogenous, and thus independent of endogenous risks. The classic procedure is "myopic" with regard to potential changes in the future behavior of the agent due to inherent random fluctuations of the system. The agent's attitude to risk is rigid. Although often criticized, the most widely used hypothesis for the analysis of economic behavior is risk-neutrality. This borderline case must be envisaged with prudence in a dynamic stochastic context. The traditional measures of risk-aversion are generally too weak for making comparisons between risky situations, given the dynamic �complexity of the environment. This can be highlighted in concrete problems in finance and insurance, context for which the Arrow-Pratt measures (in the small) give ambiguous.

Vigilance behavior of Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica): Effect of sex and position in the herd

The Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica) is a mountain-dwelling ungulate with an extensive presence in open areas. Optimal group size results from the trade off between advantages (a reduction in the risk of predation) and disadvantages (competition between members of the herd) of group living. In addition, advantages and disadvantages of group living may vary depending on the position of each individual within the herd. Our objective was to study the effect of central vs. peripheral position in the herd on feeding and vigilance behavior in male and female Pyrenean chamois and to ascertain if a group size effect existed. We used focal animal sampling and recorded social interactions when a focal animal was involved. With males, vigilance rate was higher in the central part of the group than at the periphery, probably due to a higher density of animals in the central part of the herd and a higher probability of being disturbed by conspecifics. With females, vigilance rate did not differ according to position in the herd. Females spent more time feeding than males, and males showed a higher frequency of the vigilance behavior than females. We did not observe a clear relationship between group size and vigilance behavior. The differences in vigilance behavior might be due to social interactions.

Preference intensities and risk aversion in school choice: a laboratory experiment

We experimentally investigate in the laboratory two prominent mechanisms that are employed in school choice programs to assign students to public schools. We study how individual behavior is influenced by preference intensities and risk aversion. Our main results show that (a) the Gale-Shapley mechanism is more robust to changes in cardinal preferences than the Boston mechanism independently of whether individuals can submit a complete or only a restricted ranking of the schools and (b) subjects with a higher degree of risk aversion are more likely to play "safer" strategies under the Gale-Shapley but not under the Boston mechanism. Both results have important implications for the efficiency and the stability of the mechanisms.

How does ownership structure invfluence bank risk? Analyzing the role of managerial incentives

This paper analyzes how ownership concentration and managerial incentives influences bank risk for a large sample of US banks over the period 1997-2007. Using 2SLS simultaneous equations models, we show that ownership concentration has a positive total effect on bank risk. This is the result of a positive direct effect, which reflects monitoring and opportunistic behavior, and a negative indirect effect, which works through the design of managerial incentive contracts and reflects shareholder preferences toward risk. Large shareholders reduce bank risk by reducing the sensitivity of CEO wealth to stock volatility (Vega) and by increasing the CEO pay-performance sensitivity (Delta). In addition, we show that the direct and indirect effect of ownership concentration on bank risk depends on the type of the largest shareholder (a family, a bank, a corporation or an institutional investor), as well as, on the total shareholding held by each type as a group. Our results suggest that the positive relation between ownership concentration and risk is not the result of preferences towards more risk. Rather, they point at opportunistic behavior of large shareholders.

Salience theory of choice under risk

We present a theory of choice among lotteries in which the decision maker's attention is drawn to (precisely defined) salient payoffs. This leads the decision maker to a context-dependent representation of lotteries in which true probabilities are replaced by decision weights distorted in favor of salient payoffs. By endogenizing decision weights as a function of payoffs, our model provides a novel and unified account of many empirical phenomena, including frequent risk-seeking behavior, invariance failures such as the Allais paradox, and preference reversals. It also yields new predictions, including some that distinguish it from Prospect Theory, which we test.

Inequality over the business cycle: Estimating income risk using micro-data on consumption

We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income, to evaluate the nature of increased income inequality in the 1980s and 90s. We decompose unexpected changes in family income into transitory and permanent, and idiosyncratic and aggregate components, and estimate the contribution of each component to total inequality. The model we use is a linearized incomplete markets model, enriched to incorporate risk-sharing while maintaining tractability. Our estimates suggest that taking risk sharing into account is important for the model fit; that the increase in inequality in the 1980s was mainly permanent; and that inequality is driven almost entirely by idiosyncratic income risk. In addition we find no evidence for cyclical behavior of consumption risk, casting doubt on Constantinides and Duffie s (1995) explanation for the equity premium puzzle.

A simple model of multiple equilibria based on risk

This paper shows how risk may aggravate fluctuations in economies with imperfect insurance and multiple assets. A two period job matching model is studied, in which risk averse agents act both as workers and as entrepreneurs. They choose between two types of investment: one type is riskless, while the other is a risky activity that creates jobs.Equilibrium is unique under full insurance. If investment is fully insured but unemployment risk is uninsured, then precautionary saving behavior dampens output fluctuations. However, if both investment and employment are uninsured, then an increase in unemployment gives agents an incentive to shift investment away from the risky asset, further increasing unemployment. This positive feedback may lead to multiple Pareto ranked equilibria. An overlapping generations version of the model may exhibit poverty traps or persistent multiplicity. Greater insurance is doubly beneficial in this context since it can both prevent multiplicity and promote risky investment.

Leverage and beliefs: Personal experience and risk taking in margin lending

What determines risk-bearing capacity and the amount of leverage in financial markets? Thispaper uses unique micro-data on collateralized lending contracts during a period of financialdistress to address this question. An investor syndicate speculating in English stocks wentbankrupt in 1772. Using hand-collected information from Dutch notarial archives, we examinechanges in lenders' behavior following exposure to potential (but not actual) losses. Before thedistress episode, financiers that lent to the ill-fated syndicate were indistinguishable from therest. Afterwards, they behaved differently: they lent with much higher haircuts. Only lendersexposed to the failed syndicate altered their behavior. The differential change is remarkable sincethe distress was public knowledge, and because none of the lenders suffered actual losses ? allfinanciers were repaid in full. Interest rates were also unaffected; the market balanced solelythrough changes in collateral requirements. Our findings are consistent with a heterogeneousbeliefs-interpretation of leverage. They also suggest that individual experience can modify thelevel of leverage in a market quickly.

Depression-like behavior is dependent on age in male SAMP8 mice

Aging is associated with an increased risk of depression in humans. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms of depression and its dependence on aging, here we study signs of depression in male SAMP8 mice. For this purpose, we used the forced swimming test (FST). The total floating time in the FST was greater in SAMP8 than in SAMR1 mice at 9 months of age; however, this difference was not observed in 12-month-old mice, when both strains are considered elderly. Of the two strains, only the SAMP8 animals responded to imipramine treatment. We also applied the dexamethasone suppression test (DST) and studied changes in the dopamine and serotonin (5-HT) uptake systems, the 5-HT2a/2c receptor density in the cortex, and levels of TPH2. The DST showed a significant difference between SAMR1 and SAMP8 mice at old age. SAMP8 exhibits an increase in 5-HT transporter density, with slight changes in 5-HT2a/2c receptor density. In conclusion, SAMP8 mice presented depression-like behavior that is dependent on senescence process, because it differs from SAMR1, senescence resistant strain.

Depression-like behavior is dependent on age in male SAMP8 mice

Aging is associated with an increased risk of depression in humans. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms of depression and its dependence on aging, here we study signs of depression in male SAMP8 mice. For this purpose, we used the forced swimming test (FST). The total floating time in the FST was greater in SAMP8 than in SAMR1 mice at 9 months of age; however, this difference was not observed in 12-month-old mice, when both strains are considered elderly. Of the two strains, only the SAMP8 animals responded to imipramine treatment. We also applied the dexamethasone suppression test (DST) and studied changes in the dopamine and serotonin (5-HT) uptake systems, the 5-HT2a/2c receptor density in the cortex, and levels of TPH2. The DST showed a significant difference between SAMR1 and SAMP8 mice at old age. SAMP8 exhibits an increase in 5-HT transporter density, with slight changes in 5-HT2a/2c receptor density. In conclusion, SAMP8 mice presented depression-like behavior that is dependent on senescence process, because it differs from SAMR1, senescence resistant strain.

Depression-like behavior is dependent on age in male SAMP8 mice

Aging is associated with an increased risk of depression in humans. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms of depression and its dependence on aging, here we study signs of depression in male SAMP8 mice. For this purpose, we used the forced swimming test (FST). The total floating time in the FST was greater in SAMP8 than in SAMR1 mice at 9 months of age; however, this difference was not observed in 12-month-old mice, when both strains are considered elderly. Of the two strains, only the SAMP8 animals responded to imipramine treatment. We also applied the dexamethasone suppression test (DST) and studied changes in the dopamine and serotonin (5-HT) uptake systems, the 5-HT2a/2c receptor density in the cortex, and levels of TPH2. The DST showed a significant difference between SAMR1 and SAMP8 mice at old age. SAMP8 exhibits an increase in 5-HT transporter density, with slight changes in 5-HT2a/2c receptor density. In conclusion, SAMP8 mice presented depression-like behavior that is dependent on senescence process, because it differs from SAMR1, senescence resistant strain.