Forward induction and the excess capacity puzzle: An experimental investigation.

While the theoretical industrial organization literature has long argued that excess capacity can be used to deter entry into markets, there is little empirical evidence that incumbent firms effectively behave in this way. Bagwell and Ramey (1996) propose a game with a specific sequence of moves and partially-recoverable capacity costs in which forward induction provides a theoretical rationalization for firm behavior in the field. We conduct an experiment with a game inspired by their work. In our data the incumbent tends to keep the market, in contrast to what the forward induction argument of Bagwell and Ramey would suggest. The results indicate that players perceive that the first mover has an advantage without having to pre-commit capacity. In our game, evolution and learning do not drive out this perception. We back these claims with data analysis, a theoretical framework for dynamics, and simulation results.

Disentangling the Housing Satisfaction Puzzle: Does Homeownership Really Matter?

There is a general consensus that homeownership has beneficial effects for both individuals and society in many outcomes. However, research regarding the effect of homeownership on individuals' subjective well-being remains inconclusive. In this paper, for the first time, we provide empirical evidence for the link between homeownership and housing satisfaction using panel data. We use the eight waves of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) covering the period 1994-2001. We observe that renters who become homeowners not only experience a significant increase in housing satisfaction, but also after changing their tenure status, they obtain a different utility from the same housing context. This evidence might provide support to the hypothesis that a share of the differences in the perceived utility derived from housing can be attributed to (un)fulfilled expectations or aspirations regarding homeownership. Keywords: Housing satisfaction, subjective well-being, homeownership, fixed-effects, housing aspirations JEL classification: D1, R2.

Hours worked - Productivity puzzle: identification in fractional integration settings

A recent finding of the structural VAR literature is that the response of hours worked to a technology shock depends on the assumption on the order of integration of the hours. In this work we relax this assumption, allowing for fractional integration and long memory in the process for hours and productivity. We find that the sign and magnitude of the estimated impulse responses of hours to a positive technology shock depend crucially on the assumptions applied to identify them. Responses estimated with short-run identification are positive and statistically significant in all datasets analyzed. Long-run identification results in negative often not statistically significant responses. We check validity of these assumptions with the Sims (1989) procedure, concluding that both types of assumptions are appropriate to recover the impulse responses of hours in a fractionally integrated VAR. However, the application of longrun identification results in a substantial increase of the sampling uncertainty. JEL Classification numbers: C22, E32. Keywords: technology shock, fractional integration, hours worked, structural VAR, identification

The post-communist fertility puzzle

Fertility has unanimously declined across the entire post-communist region. This study explores the variation in fertility trends over time among these countries and assesses to what degree three explanations are applicable: second demographic transition (SDT), postponement transition (PPT) or reaction to the economic crisis. Moreover, on the basis of SDT and PPT theoretical tenets, as well as descriptive evidence, the economic context is hypothesized to be linked to two processes of fertility decline conversely. The results show that no one theoretical explanation is sufficient to explain the complex fertility declines across the entire post-communist region from 1990 to 2003. In some countries, a great part of the decline in fertility occurred before significant postponement of childbearing began, which indicates that the dramatic decline was due to stopping behavior or postponement of higher order births. Postponement of first births, either through PPT or SDT processes, greatly contributed to fertility decline in a small number of countries. Pooled cross-sectional time-series analyses of age-specific birthrates confirm that these two distinct processes are present and show that the economic crisis explanation has explanatory power for declining birth rates. In contrast, logistic regressions show that the likelihood of postponing childbirth increases with improved economic conditions. These results confirm the importance of taking the economic context into account when discussing explanations for fertility decline. More specifically, the results indicate that the severity and duration of economic crisis, or absence thereof, influenced the extent and manner in which fertility declined.

El Reto de la traducción: la transferencia del puzzle lingüístico de Andrea Camilleri al castellano y al catalán

El presente estudio versa sobre las problemáticas derivadas de la traducción, al castellano y al catalán, del divertido pastiche lingüístico del escritor siciliano Andrea Camilleri. Para indagar el problema, hemos escogido las novelas Il birraio di Preston (1995) e Il cane di terracotta (1995), como muestra significativa de los dos géneros cultivados por nuestro autor, respectivamente la novela policial y la novela histórica. Se trata de textos que ponen al traductor frente a la empresa seductora y, a la vez, titánica de encontrar en su lengua una forma de devolver acertadamente la “sicilianidad” y el mosaico de dialectos italianos: para los teóricos y los traductores el lenguaje no estándar representa un reto que pone frente a problemáticas todavía no resueltas. Con este estudio descriptivo nos proponemos arrojar luz sobre este complejo asunto y tratar de indicar unas posibles pautas a seguir para el que quiera continuar con esta dialéctica.

Forward induction and the excess capacity puzzle: An experimental investigation

While the theoretical industrial organization literature has long arguedthat excess capacity can be used to deter entry into markets, there islittle empirical evidence that incumbent firms effectively behave in thisway. Bagwell and Ramey (1996) propose a game with a specific sequence ofmoves and partially-recoverable capacity costs in which forward inductionprovides a theoretical rationalization for firm behavior in the field. Weconduct an experiment with a game inspired by their work. In our data theincumbent tends to keep the market, in contrast to what the forwardinduction argument of Bagwell and Ramey would suggest. The results indicatethat players perceive that the first mover has an advantage without havingto pre-commit capacity. In our game, evolution and learning do not driveout this perception. We back these claims with data analysis, atheoretical framework for dynamics, and simulation results.

How hard is a commercial puzzle: the eternity II challenge

Recently, edge matching puzzles, an NP-complete problem, have received, thanks to money-prized contests, considerable attention from wide audiences. We consider these competitions not only a challenge for SAT/CSP solving techniques but also as an opportunity to showcase the advances in the SAT/CSP community to a general audience. This paper studies the NP-complete problem of edge matching puzzles focusing on providing generation models of problem instances of variable hardness and on its resolution through the application of SAT and CSP techniques. From the generation side, we also identify the phase transition phenomena for each model. As solving methods, we employ both; SAT solvers through the translation to a SAT formula, and two ad-hoc CSP solvers we have developed, with different levels of consistency, employing several generic and specialized heuristics. Finally, we conducted an extensive experimental investigation to identify the hardest generation models and the best performing solving techniques.

Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: Influence of Macro-Finance Factors

In this paper, we scrutinize the cross-sectional relation between idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns. As a novelty, the idiosyncratic volatility is obtained by conditioning upon macro-finance factors as well as upon traditional asset pricing factors. The macro-finance factors are constructed from a large pool of macroeconomic and financial variables. Cleaning for macro-finance e§ects reverses the puzzling negative relation between returns and idiosyncratic volatility documented previously. Portfolio analysis shows that the effects from macro-finance factors are economically strong. The relation between idiosyncratic volatility and returns does not vary with the NBER business cycles. The empirical results are highly robust. Keywords: Idiosyncratic volatility puzzle; Macro-finance predictors; Factor analysis; Business cycle. JEL Classifications: G12; G14

Technical innovations at the service of cheaper labour in pre-industrial Europe. The Enlightened agenda to transform the gender division of labour in silk manufacturing

In 1749, Jacques de Vaucanson patented his or tour pour tirer la soie or spindle for silk reeling. In that same year he presented his invention to the Academy of the Sciences in Paris, of which he was a member1. Jacques de Vaucanson was born in Grenoble, France, in 1709, and died in Paris in 1782. In 1741 he had been appointed inspector of silk manufactures by Louis XV. He set about reorganizing the silk industry in France, in considerable difficulty at the time due to foreign competition. Given Vaucanson’s position, his invention was intended to replace the traditional Piémontes method, and had an immediate impact upon the silk industry in France and all over Europe.

The Appraisal of projects with environmental impacts. Efficiency and Sustainability

It is usually assumed that the appraisal of the impacts experienced by present generations does not entail any difficulty. However, this is not true. Moreover, there is not a widely accepted methodology for taking these impacts into account. Some of the controversial issues are: the appropriate value for the discount rate, the choice of the units for expressing the impacts, physical or monetary units -income, consumption or investment- and the valuation of tangible and intangible goods. When approaching the problem of very long term impacts, there is also the problem of valuing the impacts experienced by future generations, through e.g., the use of an intergenerational discount rate. However, if this were the case, the present generation perspective would prevail, as if all the property rights on the resources were owned by them. Therefore, the sustainability requirement should also be incorporated into the analysis. We will analyze these problems in this article and show some possible solutions.

A public-key cryptosystem based on second order linear sequences

Based on Lucas functions, an improved version of the Diffie-Hellman distribution key scheme and to the ElGamal public key cryptosystem scheme are proposed, together with an implementation and computational cost. The security relies on the difficulty of factoring an RSA integer and on the difficulty of computing the discrete logarithm.

L' Aprenentatge basat en problemes a través de casos clínics simulats. Una proposta metodològica de disseny i avaluació docent

RESUM Les exigències actuals de la professió de d’infermeria requereixen que la docència vagi orientada a interrelacionar els diferents rols a desenvolupar enla pràctica diària, per adquirir experiència en l’aprenentatge i així augmentar la qualitat de les cures d’infermeria. Per assolir aquest objectiu és important l’aprenentatge basat enproblemes. Aquest pretén en primer lloc que els estudiants aprenguin allò que permet desenvolupar-se enla vida professional de la manera més natural possible a partir d’una idea clara i profunda de l’evidència sobre la que s’ha d’actuar. Amb aquesta finalitat es vandissenyar casos clínics amb uns objectius que requerien la integració de coneixements, actituds i valors, en diferents fases a desenvolupar en un període de temps predeterminat. També ens vam proposar una estratègia docent que permetés a l’estudiant incorporar el coneixement científic que dóna suport a la pràctica assistencial per aproximar teoria i pràctica. Es pretén que els estudiants busquin una resposta basada en la millor evidència científica disponible, per prendre una decisió respecte a les cures del pacient. Els objectius de l’estudi són: Avaluar globalment l’aprenentatge basat en la simulació de casos Avaluar com els estudiants valoren la integració del model d’infermeria i del procés d’atenció en l’aprenentatge basat en la simulació de casos. Valorar les sensacions percebudes per l’estudiant durant la simulació del cas. Valorar l’actitud d el’estudiant en relació a la incorporació de l’evidència científica per una millora en la pràctica clínica. Avaluar el grau de dificultat manifestat per l’estudiant en relació al procés de documentació. Avaluar la idonietat de l’argumentació i la decisió de l’estudiant a la pregunta formulada en el cas clínic. Metodologia: L’assignatura d’Infermeria Medicoquirúrgica. Adult I del Departament d’Infermeria de la Universitat de Vic, va iniciar una experiència d’aprenentatge basat en la resolució de problemes, amb estudiants de 2on curs. Les professores responsables dels seminaris van realitzar una avaluació de l’experiència a través d’una enquesta. Aquesta es responia al cap d’un mes de la simulació al laboratori, quan es contrastaven els resultats obtinguts en aquesta entre professores i estudiants després de visualitzar la gravació feta durant el mateix. En el context del seminari de simulació de casos, es va introduir una pregunta/problema, a partir de la que els estudiants, en grup, havien de documentar-se amb el suport d’una guia. Per valorar l’actitud davant aquesta pregunta/problema es va dissenyar un qustionari tipus Likert. L’avaluació del grau de dificultat s’ha registrat a través d’unes escales de puntuació. Per a l’avaluació de la decisió presa, es van valorar les síntesis resum entregades en els treballs escrits pels diferents grups. Resultats: La realització de la simulació en el laboratori va ser avaluada per un alt percentatge d’estudiants (68,8%) amb puntuacions entre 6 i 8 mentre que un 26,6% la van situar en tre 9 i 10, només un 4,7 % la van puntuar amb 5. La integració del model d’infermeria va ser valorada pel 86% amb una puntuació entre 7 i 10. La valoració global de la simulació va ser qualificada pels estudiants amb una puntuació de 8 (34,4%) seguida d’un 28,1% amb una consideració de 7. Un 7,2% van puntuar entre 9 i 10. El 93,3% van assegurar que conèixer les fonts documentals els serviria per millorar l’assistència, el 86,7% esperen obtenir arguments sòlids respecte les seves desicions si la documentació consultada és de qualitat. Un 77,8% dels estudiants consideren estar més satisfets al saber incorporar la presa de decisions basada en evidències. Respecte el grau de dificultat en el procés de documentació la dificultat més gran la presenten en com buscar en les bases de dades de referències bibliogràfiques. Conclusions: L’aprenentatge dels estudiants a través de la simulació de casos és una estratègia vàlida que l’estudiant valora positivament al mateix temps que permet desenvolupar habilitats per a la pràctica professional. L’estratègia docent dissenyada per integrar les evidències en la presa de decisions es considera positiva, no obstant, després d’analitzar els resultats, s’han de modificar alguns aspectes per a la seva millora; tutoritzar per a millorar el procés de documentació i incidir més en la crítica i reflexió, de manera que les troballes de la investigació siguin canalitzades cap a la pràctica.

Individual Aspirations and Satisfaction:Quantifying the Importance of Homeownership

Residential satisfaction is often used as a barometer to assess the performance of public policy and programmes designed to raise individuals' well-being. However, the fact that responses elicited from residents might be biased by subjective, non-observable factors casts doubt on whether these responses can be taken as trustable indicators of the individuals' housing situation. Emotional factors such as aspirations or expectations might affect individuals' cognitions of their true residential situation. To disentangle this puzzle, we investigated whether identical residential attributes can be perceived differently depending on tenure status. Our results indicate that tenure status is crucial not only in determining the level of housing satisfaction, but also regarding how dwellers perceive their housing characteristics. Keywords: Housing satisfaction, subjective well-being, homeownership. JEL classification: D1, R2.

Modelling of bird distribution under complex mediterranean landscape dynamics: open habitat birds and fire (MEDFIRE)

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Simon Fraser University, Canada, from July to September 2007. General context: landscape change during the last years is having significant impacts on biodiversity in many Mediterranean areas. Land abandonment, urbanisation and specially fire are profoundly transforming large areas in the Western Mediterranean basin and we know little on how these changes influence species distribution and in particular how these species will respond to further change in a context of global change including climate. General objectives: integrate landscape and population dynamics models in a platform allowing capturing species distribution responses to landscape changes and assessing impact on species distribution of different scenarios of further change. Specific objective 1: develop a landscape dynamic model capturing fire and forest succession dynamics in Catalonia and linked to a stochastic landscape occupancy (SLOM) (or spatially explicit population, SEPM) model for the Ortolan bunting, a species strongly linked to fire related habitat in the region. Predictions from the occupancy or spatially explicit population Ortolan bunting model (SEPM) should be evaluated using data from the DINDIS database. This database tracks bird colonisation of recently burnt big areas (&50 ha). Through a number of different SEPM scenarios with different values for a number of parameter, we should be able to assess different hypothesis in factors driving bird colonisation in new burnt patches. These factors to be mainly, landscape context (i.e. difficulty to reach the patch, and potential presence of coloniser sources), dispersal constraints, type of regenerating vegetation after fire, and species characteristics (niche breadth, etc).

Extensió de l'entorn SMARD per permetre la depuració d'aplicacions basades en agents mòbils

Un dels principals obstacles per l’adopció dels agents mòbils, fins i tot per tasques per les quals s’ha demostrat la seva idoneïtat, és la dificultat de desenvolupar-los. Aquest projecte aporta solucions per ajudar en aquest procés. Més concretament, per provar agents i observar-ne el seu comportament en un entorn de simulació, abans d’executar-los en un escenari real. Hem afegit un depurador i un constructor d’agents mòbils a la interfície gràfica de disseny d’itineraris de l’entorn SMARD. Fent servir afegit aquests nous components, el programador pot dissenyar, construir i fer proves d’un agent mòbil des d’aquesta aplicació.