Testing of stair climbing point-of-choice prompts in Barcelona at an outdoor set of stairs and scalators on the Montjuïc site

Regular stair climbing has well-documented health dividends, such as increased fitness and strength, weight loss and reduced body fat, improved lipid profiles and reduced risk of osteoporosis. The general absence of barriers to participation makes stair climbing an ideal physical activity (PA) for health promotion. Studies in the US and the UK have consistently shown that interventions to increase the accumulation of lifestyle PA by climbing stairs rather than using the escalators are effective. However, there are no previous in Catalonia. This project tested one message for their ability to prompt travelers on the Montjuïc site to choose the stairs rather than the escalator when climbing up the Monjuïc hill. One standard message, " Take the stairs! 7 minutes of stair climbing a day protects your heart" provided a comparison with previous research done in the UK. Translated into Catalan and Spanish, it was presented on a poster positioned at the point of choice between the stairs and the escalator. The study used a quasi-experimental, interrupted time series design. Travelers, during several and specific hours on two days of the week, were coded for stair or escalator use, gender, age, ethnic status, presence of accompanying children or bags by one observer. Overall, the intervention resulted in a 81% increase in stair climbing. In the follow-up period without messages, stair climbing dropped out to baseline levels. This preliminary study showed a significant effect on stair use. However, caution is needed since results are based on a small sample and, only a low percentage of the sample took the stairs at baseline or the intervention phase . Future research on stair use in Catalonia should focus on using bigger samples, different sites (metro stations, airports, shopping centers, etc) , different messages and techniques to promote stair climbing.

Freedom of choice as control over outcomes

As interactions between individuals are introduced into the freedom of choice literature by the mean of game forms, new issues appear. In particular, in this paper it is argued that individuals face uncertainty with respect to outcomes as they lose the control they implicitely exert over options in the opportunity set framework. A criterion is proposed as to compare alternative game forms in terms of the control they offer to individuals. The CardMin criterion suggests that any game form should be judged on the basis of the strategy offering the lowest number of pairwise different outcomes. An axiomatic characterization is provided in the case of two individuals.

Estimation of the probability of congestion using Monte Carlo method in OPS networks

In networks with small buffers, such as optical packet switching based networks, the convolution approach is presented as one of the most accurate method used for the connection admission control. Admission control and resource management have been addressed in other works oriented to bursty traffic and ATM. This paper focuses on heterogeneous traffic in OPS based networks. Using heterogeneous traffic and bufferless networks the enhanced convolution approach is a good solution. However, both methods (CA and ECA) present a high computational cost for high number of connections. Two new mechanisms (UMCA and ISCA) based on Monte Carlo method are proposed to overcome this drawback. Simulation results show that our proposals achieve lower computational cost compared to enhanced convolution approach with an small stochastic error in the probability estimation

Salience theory of choice under risk

We present a theory of choice among lotteries in which the decision maker's attention is drawn to (precisely defined) salient payoffs. This leads the decision maker to a context-dependent representation of lotteries in which true probabilities are replaced by decision weights distorted in favor of salient payoffs. By endogenizing decision weights as a function of payoffs, our model provides a novel and unified account of many empirical phenomena, including frequent risk-seeking behavior, invariance failures such as the Allais paradox, and preference reversals. It also yields new predictions, including some that distinguish it from Prospect Theory, which we test.

Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data

We propose a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probabilityof leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-sectiondata, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. Theproposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two important features:(1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and(2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflowcomposition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposedestimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changesin distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a periodof labor market reform. We find that the relative probability of leavingunemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployedbecomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

Optimal magnitude and probability of fines

The economic literature on crime and punishment focuses on the trade-off between probability and severity of punishment, and suggests that detection probability and fines are substitutes. In this paper it is shown that, in presence of substantial underdeterrence caused by costly detection and punishment, these instruments may become complements. When offenders are poor, the deterrent value of monetary sanctions is low. Thus, the government does not invest a lot in detection. If offenders are rich, however, the deterrent value of monetary sanctions is high, so it is more profitable to prosecute them.

Satisfaction in choice as a function of the number of alternatives: When "goods satiate" but "bads escalate"

Whereas people are typically thought to be better off with more choices, studiesshow that they often prefer to choose from small as opposed to large sets of alternatives.We propose that satisfaction from choice is an inverted U-shaped function of thenumber of alternatives. This proposition is derived theoretically by considering thebenefits and costs of different numbers of alternatives and is supported by fourexperimental studies. We also manipulate the perceptual costs of information processingand demonstrate how this affects the resulting satisfaction function. We furtherindicate that satisfaction when choosing from a given set is diminished if people aremade aware of the existence of other choice sets. The role of individual differences insatisfaction from choice is documented by noting effects due to gender and culture. Weconclude by emphasizing the need to have an explicit rationale for knowing how muchchoice is enough.

How tight should one's hands be tied? Fear of floating and credibility of exchange rate regimes

This paper analyzes the linkages between the credibility of a target zone regime, the volatility of the exchange rate, and the width of the band where the exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate. These three concepts should be related since the band width induces a trade-off between credibility and volatility. Narrower bands should give less scope for the exchange rate to fluctuate but may make agents perceive a larger probability of realignment which by itself should increase the volatility of the exchange rate. We build a model where this trade-off is made explicit. The model is used to understand the reduction in volatility experienced by most EMS countries after their target zones were widened on August 1993. As a natural extension, the model also rationalizes the existence of non-official, implicit target zones (or fear of floating), suggested by some authors.

Does persistence of social exclusion exist in Spain?

The aim of this paper is to analyze the causes leading to social exclusion dynamics. In particular, we wish to understand why any individual experiencing social exclusion today is much more likely to experience it again. In fact, there are two distinct processes that may generate a persistence of social exclusion: heterogeneity (individuals are heterogeneous with respect to some observed and/or unobserved adverse characteristics that are relevant for the chance of experiencing social exclusion and persistence over time) and true state of dependence (experiencing social exclusion in a specific time period, in itself, increases the probability of undergoing social exclusion in subsequent periods). Distinguishing between the two processes is crucial since the policy implications are very different.

Diseño cooperativo de un sistema de comunicaciones por satélite basado en diversidad espacial

En este proyecto se han presentado los modelos de distribución de canal más comunes que se puede encontrar una señal en una transmisión. Seguidamente se ha presentado el concepto de diversidad en comunicaciones inalámbricas terrestres y se ha trasladado el escenario a comunicaciones por satélite. Para analizar la calidad de los enlaces con diversidad se ha realizado un simulador, con Matlab, que modele la estructura básica de un sistema de comunicaciones (emisor, canal y receptor). Simulando las comunicaciones entre los diferentes sistemas de diversidad se ha podido comparar la calidad de cada enlace. El modelo Alamouti ha presentado una robustez y una baja probabilidad de error que hacen que sea la mejor elección a la hora de diseñar un sistema de diversidad para comunicaciones por satélite. Utiliza la diversidad de canal para aprovechar cada pizca de señal que recibe y así poder descifrar el mensaje enviado.

Analyzing the effects of transient faults into applications

As computer chips implementation technologies evolve to obtain more performance, those computer chips are using smaller components, with bigger density of transistors and working with lower power voltages. All these factors turn the computer chips less robust and increase the probability of a transient fault. Transient faults may occur once and never more happen the same way in a computer system lifetime. There are distinct consequences when a transient fault occurs: the operating system might abort the execution if the change produced by the fault is detected by bad behavior of the application, but the biggest risk is that the fault produces an undetected data corruption that modifies the application final result without warnings (for example a bit flip in some crucial data). With the objective of researching transient faults in computer system’s processor registers and memory we have developed an extension of HP’s and AMD joint full system simulation environment, named COTSon. This extension allows the injection of faults that change a single bit in processor registers and memory of the simulated computer. The developed fault injection system makes it possible to: evaluate the effects of single bit flip transient faults in an application, analyze an application robustness against single bit flip transient faults and validate fault detection mechanism and strategies.

Vigilance behavior of Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica): Effect of sex and position in the herd

The Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica) is a mountain-dwelling ungulate with an extensive presence in open areas. Optimal group size results from the trade off between advantages (a reduction in the risk of predation) and disadvantages (competition between members of the herd) of group living. In addition, advantages and disadvantages of group living may vary depending on the position of each individual within the herd. Our objective was to study the effect of central vs. peripheral position in the herd on feeding and vigilance behavior in male and female Pyrenean chamois and to ascertain if a group size effect existed. We used focal animal sampling and recorded social interactions when a focal animal was involved. With males, vigilance rate was higher in the central part of the group than at the periphery, probably due to a higher density of animals in the central part of the herd and a higher probability of being disturbed by conspecifics. With females, vigilance rate did not differ according to position in the herd. Females spent more time feeding than males, and males showed a higher frequency of the vigilance behavior than females. We did not observe a clear relationship between group size and vigilance behavior. The differences in vigilance behavior might be due to social interactions.

Work, risk and health: differences between immigrants and natives in Spain

We analyze the impact of working and contractual conditions, particularly exposure to job risks, on the probability of acquiring a disability. We postulate a model in which this impact is mediated by the choice of occupation, with a level of risk associated to it. We assume this choice is endogenous, and that it depends on preferences and opportunities in the labour market, both of which may differ between immigrants and natives. To test this hypothesis we use data from the Continuous Sample of Working Lives of the Spanish SS system. It contains individual, job and firm information of over a million workers, including a representative sample of immigrants. We find that risk exposure increases the probability of permanent disability by 5.3%; temporary employment also influences health. Migrant status -with differences among regions of origin- significantly affects both disability and the probability of being employed in a risky occupation. Most groups of immigrants work in riskier jobs, but have lower probability of becoming disabled. Nevertheless, our theoretical hypothesis that disability and risk are jointly determined is not valid for immigrants: i.e. for them working conditions is not a matter of choice in terms of health.

Quantitative analysis of image factors in a cultural heritage tourist destination

The tourism consumer’s purchase decision process is, to a great extent, conditioned by the image the tourist has of the different destinations that make up his or her choice set. In a highly competitive international tourist market, those responsible for destinations’ promotion and development policies seek differentiation strategies so that they may position the destinations in the most suitable market segments for their product in order to improve their attractiveness to visitors and increase or consolidate the economic benefits that tourism activity generates in their territory. To this end, the main objective we set ourselves in this paper is the empirical analysis of the factors that determine the image formation of Tarragona city as a cultural heritage destination. Without a doubt, UNESCO’s declaration of Tarragona’s artistic and monumental legacies as World Heritage site in the year 2000 meant important international recognition of the quality of the cultural and patrimonial elements offered by the city to the visitors who choose it as a tourist destination. It also represents a strategic opportunity to boost the city’s promotion of tourism and its consolidation as a unique destination given its cultural and patrimonial characteristics. Our work is based on the use of structured and unstructured techniques to identify the factors that determine Tarragona’s tourist destination image and that have a decisive influence on visitors’ process of choice of destination. In addition to being able to ascertain Tarragona’s global tourist image, we consider that the heterogeneity of its visitors requires a more detailed study that enables us to segment visitor typology. We consider that the information provided by these results may prove of great interest to those responsible for local tourism policy, both when designing products and when promoting the destination.

Hilbert space on probability density functions with Aitchison geometry

Compositional data analysis motivated the introduction of a complete Euclidean structure in the simplex of D parts. This was based on the early work of J. Aitchison (1986) and completed recently when Aitchinson distance in the simplex was associated with an inner product and orthonormal bases were identified (Aitchison and others, 2002; Egozcue and others, 2003). A partition of the support of a random variable generates a composition by assigning the probability of each interval to a part of the composition. One can imagine that the partition can be refined and the probability density would represent a kind of continuous composition of probabilities in a simplex of infinitely many parts. This intuitive idea would lead to a Hilbert-space of probability densitiesby generalizing the Aitchison geometry for compositions in the simplex into the set probability densities