Growth variability of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along a West-East gradient across northern Fennoscandia: a dendroclimatic approach

We performed a spatiotemporal analysis of a network of 21 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) ring-width chronologies in northern Fennoscandia by means of chronology statistics and multivariate analyses. Chronologies are located on both sides (western and eastern) of the Scandes Mountains (67°N-70°N, 15°E-29°E). Growth relationships with temperature, precipitation, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices were calculated for the period 1880-1991. We also assessed their temporal stability. Current July temperature and, to a lesser degree, May precipitation are the main growth limiting factors in the whole area of study. However, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and mean interseries correlation revealed differences in radial growth between both sides of the Scandes Mountains, attributed to the Oceanic-Continental climatic gradient in the area. The gradient signal is temporally variable and has strengthened during the second half of the 20th century. Northern Fennoscandia Scots pine growth is positively related to early winter NAO indices previous to the growth season and to late spring NAO. NAO/growth relationships are unstable and have dropped in the second half of the 20th century. Moreover, they are noncontinuous through the range of NAO values: for early winter, only positive NAO indices enhance tree growth in the next growing season, while negative NAO does not. For spring, only negative NAO is correlated with radial growth.

Spatiotemporal variability in radial growth of trees in the Central Pyrenees: climatic and site influences.

To understand how tree growth has responded to recent climate warming, an understanding of the tree-climate-site complex is necessary. To achieve this, radial growth variability among 204 trees established before 1850 was studied in relation to both climatic and site factors. Seventeen forest stands were sampled in the Spanish Central Pyrenees. Three species were studied: Pinus uncinata, Abies alba, and Pinus sylvestris. For each tree, a ring-width residual chronology was built. All trees cross-dated well, indicating a common influence of the regional climate. For the 1952-1993 period, the radial growth of all species, especially P. uncinata, was positively correlated with warm Novembers during the year before ring formation and warm Mays of the year the annual ring formed. Differences in species-stand elevation modulated the growth-climate associations. Radial growth in P. uncinata at high elevation sites was reduced when May temperatures were colder and May precipitation more abundant. In the 20th century, two contrasting periods in radial growth were observed: one (1900-1949) with low frequency of narrow and wide rings, low mean annual sensitivity, and low common growth variation; and another (1950-1994) with the reverse characteristics. The increased variability in radial growth since the 1950s was observed for all species and sites, which suggests a climatic cause. The low shared variance among tree chronologies during the first half of the 20th century may result from a"relaxation" of the elevation gradient, allowing local site conditions to dominate macroclimatic influence. These temporal trends may be related to the recently reported increase of climatic variability and warmer conditions. This study emphasizes the need to carefully assess the relationships between radial growth and site conditions along ecological gradients to improve dendroclimatic reconstructions.

Commuters' valuation of travel time variability in Barcelona

The value given by commuters to the variability of travel times is empirically analysed using stated preference data from Barcelona (Spain). Respondents are asked to choose between alternatives that differ in terms of cost, average travel time, variability of travel times and departure time. Different specifications of a scheduling choice model are used to measure the influence of various socioeconomic characteristics. Our results show that travel time variability.

Variability of North Atlantic hurricanes: seasonal versus individual-event features

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the sudden activation of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990’s. We provide first a swift overview on previous work by diverse authors about these annual metrics for the North-Atlantic basin, where the natural variability of the phenomenon, the existence of trends, the drawbacks of the records, and the influence of global warming have been the subject of interesting debates. Next, we present an alternative approach that does not focus on seasonal features but on the characteristics of single events [Corral et al., Nature Phys. 6, 693 (2010)]. It is argued that the individual-storm power dissipation index (PDI) constitutes a natural way to describe each event, and further, that the PDI statistics yields a robust law for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in terms of a power law. In this context, methods of fitting these distributions are discussed. As an important extension to this work we introduce a distribution function that models the whole range of the PDI density (excluding incompleteness effects at the smallest values), the gamma distribution, consisting in a powerlaw with an exponential decay at the tail. The characteristic scale of this decay, represented by the cutoff parameter, provides very valuable information on the finiteness size of the basin, via the largest values of the PDIs that the basin can sustain. We use the gamma fit to evaluate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the occurrence of extreme PDI values, for which we find an increase around 50 % in the values of these basin-wide events for a 0.49 C SST average difference. Similar findings are observed for the effects of the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the number of hurricanes in a season on the PDI distribution. In the case of the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), positive and negative values of the multivariate ENSO index do not have a significant effect on the PDI distribution; however, when only extreme values of the index are used, it is found that the presence of El Niño decreases the PDI of the most extreme hurricanes.

Exploration of geological variability and possible processes through the use of compositional data analysis: an example using scottish metamorphosed

Developments in the statistical analysis of compositional data over the last twodecades have made possible a much deeper exploration of the nature of variability,and the possible processes associated with compositional data sets from manydisciplines. In this paper we concentrate on geochemical data sets. First we explainhow hypotheses of compositional variability may be formulated within the naturalsample space, the unit simplex, including useful hypotheses of subcompositionaldiscrimination and specific perturbational change. Then we develop through standardmethodology, such as generalised likelihood ratio tests, statistical tools to allow thesystematic investigation of a complete lattice of such hypotheses. Some of these tests are simple adaptations of existing multivariate tests but others require specialconstruction. We comment on the use of graphical methods in compositional dataanalysis and on the ordination of specimens. The recent development of the conceptof compositional processes is then explained together with the necessary tools for astaying- in-the-simplex approach, namely compositional singular value decompositions. All these statistical techniques are illustrated for a substantial compositional data set, consisting of 209 major-oxide and rare-element compositions of metamorphosed limestones from the Northeast and Central Highlands of Scotland.Finally we point out a number of unresolved problems in the statistical analysis ofcompositional processes

The chemical variability at the surface of Mars: implications for exogenic processes

The chemical composition of sediments and rocks, as well as their distribution at theMartian surface, represent a long term archive of processes, which have formed theplanetary surface. A survey of chemical compositions by means of Compositional DataAnalysis represents a valuable tool to extract direct evidence for weathering processesand allows to quantify weathering and sedimentation rates. clr-biplot techniques areapplied for visualization of chemical relationships across the surface (“chemical maps”).The variability among individual suites of data is further analyzed by means of clr-PCA,in order to extract chemical alteration vectors between fresh rocks and their crusts andfor an assessment of different source reservoirs accessible to soil formation. Bothtechniques are applied to elucidate the influence of remote weathering by combinedanalysis of several soil forming branches. Vector analysis in the Simplex provides theopportunity to study atmosphere surface interactions, including the role andcomposition of volcanic gases

Temporal variability and trends of the downward solar radiation over Europe during the 20th century, with regional focus in the dimming/brightening phenomena on the Iberian Peninsula

Proyecto de investigación elaborado a partir de una estancia en el Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, a Alemanya, entre 2010 y 2012. La radiación solar que alcanza la superficie terrestre es un factor clave entre los procesos que controlan el clima de la Tierra, dado el papel que desempeñan en el balance energético y el ciclo hidrológico. Establecer su contribución al cambio climático reciente supone una gran dificultad debido a la complejidad de los procesos implicados, la gran cantidad de información requerida, y la incertidumbre de las bases de datos disponibles en la actualidad. Así, el objetivo principal del proyecto ha consistido en generar una base de datos de insolación incluyendo las series más largas (desde finales del siglo XIX) disponibles en toda Europa. Esta base de datos complementa para nuestro continente el Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) que mantiene y gestiona el grupo que ha acogido al receptor de la ayuda postdoctoral, y permite extender espacial (especialmente en países del sur de Europa) y temporalmente las series climáticas disponibles de mediciones de irradiancia solar. Como la insolación es un proxy de la irradiancia solar, el proyecto actual también ha tratado de calibrar de forma exhaustiva ambas variables, a fin de generar una nueva base de datos reconstruida de esta segunda variable que esté disponible desde finales del siglo XIX en Europa. Un segundo objetivo del proyecto ha consistido en continuar trabajando a escala de mayor detalle sobre la Península Ibérica, con el fin de proporcionar una mejor comprensión del fenómeno del “global dimming/brightening” y su impacto en el ciclo hidrológico y balance energético. Finalmente, un tercer objetivo del presente proyecto postdoctoral ha consistido en continuar estudiando los posibles ciclos semanales a gran escala de diferentes variables climáticas, línea de investigación de interés para la detección de posibles efectos de los aerosoles antrópicos en el clima a escalas temporales breves, y consecuentemente estrechamente vinculado al fenómeno del “global dimming/brightening”.

Altered brain-derived neurotrophic factor blood levels and gene variability are associated with anorexia and bulimia

Murine models and association studies in eating disorder (ED) patients have shown a role for the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) in eating behavior. Some studies have shown association of BDNF -270C/T single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) with bulimia nervosa (BN), while BDNF Val66Met variant has been shown to be associated with both BN and anorexia nervosa (AN). To further test the role of this neurotrophin in humans, we screened 36 SNPs in the BDNF gene and tested for their association with ED and plasma BDNF levels as a quantitative trait. We performed a family-based association study in 106 ED nuclear families and analyzed BDNF blood levels in 110 ED patients and in 50 sib pairs discordant for ED. The rs7124442T/rs11030102C/rs11030119G haplotype was found associated with high BDNF levels (mean BDNF TCG haplotype carriers = 43.6 ng/ml vs. mean others 23.0 ng/ml, P = 0.016) and BN (Z = 2.64; P recessive = 0.008), and the rs7934165A/270T haplotype was associated with AN (Z =-2.64; P additive = 0.008). The comparison of BDNF levels in 50 ED discordant sib pairs showed elevated plasma BDNF levels for the ED group (mean controls = 41.0 vs. mean ED = 52.7; P = 0.004). Our data strongly suggest that altered BDNF levels modulated by BDNF gene variability are associated with the susceptibility to ED, providing physiological evidence that BDNF plays a role in the development of AN and BN, and strongly arguing for its involvement in eating behavior and body weight regulation.

The variability of money velocity in a generalized cash-in-advance model

This paper presents a general equilibrium model of money demand wherethe velocity of money changes in response to endogenous fluctuations in the interest rate. The parameter space can be divided into two subsets: one where velocity is constant and equal to one as in cash-in-advance models, and another one where velocity fluctuates as in Baumol (1952). Despite its simplicity, in terms of paramaters to calibrate, the model performs surprisingly well. In particular, it approximates the variability of money velocity observed in the U.S. for the post-war period. The model is then used to analyze the welfare costs of inflation under uncertainty. This application calculates the errors derived from computing the costs of inflation with deterministic models. It turns out that the size of this difference is small, at least for the levels of uncertainty estimated for the U.S. economy.

Study of the variability in chemical composition of bark layers of Quercus Suber L. from different production areas

Cork is the bark of the cork oak tree (Quercus suber L), a renewable and biodegradable raw bioresource concentrated mainly in the Mediterranean region. Development of its potential uses as a biosorbent will require the investigation of its chemical composition; such information can be of help to understand its interactions with organic pollutants. The present study investigates the summative chemical composition of three bark layers (back, cork, and belly) of five Spanish cork samples and one cork sample from Portugal. Suberin was the main component in all the samples (21.1 to 53.1%), followed by lignin (14.8 to 31%), holocellulose (2.3 to 33.6%), extractives (7.3 to 20.4%), and ash (0.4 to 3.3%). The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to determine whether the variations in chemical composition with respect to the production area and bark layers were significant. The results indicate that, with respect to the bark layer, significant differences were found only for suberin and holocellulose contents: they were higher in the belly and cork than in the back. Based on the results presented, cork is a material with a lot of potential because of its heterogeneity in chemical composition

Enhanced radar precipitation estimates using a combined clutter and beam blockage correction technique

Weather radar observations are currently the most reliable method for remote sensing of precipitation. However, a number of factors affect the quality of radar observations and may limit seriously automated quantitative applications of radar precipitation estimates such as those required in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data assimilation or in hydrological models. In this paper, a technique to correct two different problems typically present in radar data is presented and evaluated. The aspects dealt with are non-precipitating echoes - caused either by permanent ground clutter or by anomalous propagation of the radar beam (anaprop echoes) - and also topographical beam blockage. The correction technique is based in the computation of realistic beam propagation trajectories based upon recent radiosonde observations instead of assuming standard radio propagation conditions. The correction consists of three different steps: 1) calculation of a Dynamic Elevation Map which provides the minimum clutter-free antenna elevation for each pixel within the radar coverage; 2) correction for residual anaprop, checking the vertical reflectivity gradients within the radar volume; and 3) topographical beam blockage estimation and correction using a geometric optics approach. The technique is evaluated with four case studies in the region of the Po Valley (N Italy) using a C-band Doppler radar and a network of raingauges providing hourly precipitation measurements. The case studies cover different seasons, different radio propagation conditions and also stratiform and convective precipitation type events. After applying the proposed correction, a comparison of the radar precipitation estimates with raingauges indicates a general reduction in both the root mean squared error and the fractional error variance indicating the efficiency and robustness of the procedure. Moreover, the technique presented is not computationally expensive so it seems well suited to be implemented in an operational environment.

Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively characterize the climatology of daily precipitation indices in Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003. This work has been performed analyzing a subset of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices calculated from a new interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution (around 20 km) and from two high-quality stations: the Ebro and Fabra observatories. Using a jack-knife technique, we have found that the sampling error of the SPAIN02 regional averaged is relatively low. The trend analysis has been implemented using a Circular Block Bootstrap procedure applicable to non-normal distributions and autocorrelated series. A running trend analysis has been applied to analyze the trend persistence. No general trends at a regional scale are observed, considering the annual or the seasonal regional averaged series of all the indices for all the time windows considered. Only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern; around 30% of the Catalonia area has experienced an increase of around 2¿3 days decade¿1. The Ebro and Fabra observatories show a similar CDD trend, mainly due to the summer contribution. Besides this, a significant decrease in total precipitation (around ¿10 mm decade¿1) and in the index "highest precipitation amount in five-day period" (RX5DAY, around ¿5 mm decade¿1), have been found in summer for the Ebro observatory.