A subsampling approach to estimating the distribution of diversing statistics with application to assessing financial market risks

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution ofstatistics diverging at either known rates when the underlying timeseries in strictly stationary abd strong mixing. Based on our results weprovide a detailed discussion how to estimate extreme order statisticswith dependent data and present two applications to assessing financialmarket risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk andprovides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizingSafety First portofolio selection.

Contracting with free software communities

Industry and large Agencies needs ¿agile¿ programming resources, to reinforce their own development staff and take advantage of innovative approaches produced by ¿fresh minds¿ all over the world. At the same time they may be reluctant to engage in classical software development call for tenders and contracts. Such contracts are often ¿trusted¿ by large ICT firms, which will deliver according to their own rigid frameworks (often based on alliances with proprietary software vendors), may propose comfortable quality assurances, but will cover their (real) risks and liability with high contingency costs and will charge for any change request in case the original specifications have not fixed all possible issues. Introducing FLOSS in business implies a new contracting philosophy, based on incentives rather than penalties and liability. Based on 2011 experience with a large Space Agency, Patrice-Emmanuel Schmitz pictures the needed legal instruments for a novel approach.