Elections in 2009? Progress and obstacles in the construction of peace in the Ivory Coast

In 2002 in the Ivory Coast three months of armed conflict ended with the division of the country. Two regions were separated by an interposition line controlled by the French Forces Licorne. This significant peace process was maintained over time, but characterized for lack of mutual confidence and political immobility, which led to an impasse and the continuation of Laurent Gbagbo in the presidency. Moreover, the peace building process was less successful because the different political agreements failed to address some of the main national problems, such as land property and identity issues. The following paper aims first to analyze the main facts and causes that instigated the conflict since the coup d’état in 2002. Secondly, the paper will analyze the peace process and point out the key elements of the Ouagadougou Peace Agreement (2007): the creation of a new and unique armed forces structure, as well as the identification of the population and implementation of an electoral process. The main goal is to provide the International Catalan Institute for Peace (ICIP) a working tool in order to send an electoral observation mission to this African country by November 2009.

Can You Home Again? Desertion and Control of Hometowns in Civil Wars

What allows an armed group in a civil war to prevent desertion? This paper addresses this question with a focus on control in the rearguard. Most past studies focus on motivations for desertion. They explain desertion in terms of where soldiers stand in relation to the macro themes of the war, or in terms of an inability to provide positive incentives to overcome the collective action problem. However, since individuals decide whether and how to participate in civil wars for multiple reasons, responding to a variety of local conditions in an environment of threat and violence, a focus only on macro-level motivations is incomplete. The opportunities side of the ledger deserves more attention. I therefore turn my attention to how control by an armed group eliminates soldiers’ opportunities to desert. In particular, I consider the control that an armed group maintains over soldiers’ hometowns, treating geographic terrain as an important exogenous indicator of the ease of control. Rough terrain at home affords soldiers and their families and friends advantages in ease of hiding, the difficulty of using force, and local knowledge. Based on an original dataset of soldiers from Santander Province in the Spanish Civil War, gathered from archival sources, I find statistical evidence that the rougher the terrain in a soldier’s home municipality, the more likely he is to desert. I find complementary qualitative evidence indicating that soldiers from rough-terrain communities took active advantage of their greater opportunities for evasion. This finding has important implications for the way observers interpret different soldiers’ decisions to desert or remain fighting, for the prospect that structural factors may shape the cohesion of armed groups, and for the possibility that local knowledge may be a double-edged sword, making soldiers simultaneously good at fighting and good at deserting.

Protein phosphatase inhibition assays for okadaic acid detection in shellfish: matrix effects, applicability and comparison with LC-MS/MS analysis

The applicability of the protein phosphatase inhibition assay (PPIA) to the determination of okadaic acid (OA) and its acyl derivatives in shellfish samples has been investigated, using a recombinant PP2A and a commercial one. Mediterranean mussel, wedge clam, Pacific oyster and flat oyster have been chosen as model species. Shellfish matrix loading limits for the PPIA have been established, according to the shellfish species and the enzyme source. A synergistic inhibitory effect has been observed in the presence of OA and shellfish matrix, which has been overcome by the application of a correction factor (0.48). Finally, Mediterranean mussel samples obtained from Rı´a de Arousa during a DSP closure associated to Dinophysis acuminata, determined as positive by the mouse bioassay, have been analysed with the PPIAs. The OA equivalent contents provided by the PPIAs correlate satisfactorily with those obtained by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry (LC–MS/MS).

Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars

This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.

Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars

This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.

A methodology for the classification of convective structures using meteorological radar: Application to heavy rainfall events on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula

During the period 1996-2000, forty-three heavy rainfall events have been detected in the Internal Basins of Catalonia (Northeastern of Spain). Most of these events caused floods and serious damage. This high number leads to the need for a methodology to classify them, on the basis of their surface rainfall distribution, their internal organization and their physical features. The aim of this paper is to show a methodology to analyze systematically the convective structures responsible of those heavy rainfall events on the basis of the information supplied by the meteorological radar. The proposed methodology is as follows. Firstly, the rainfall intensity and the surface rainfall pattern are analyzed on the basis of the raingauge data. Secondly, the convective structures at the lowest level are identified and characterized by using a 2-D algorithm, and the convective cells are identified by using a 3-D procedure that looks for the reflectivity cores in every radar volume. Thirdly, the convective cells (3-D) are associated with the 2-D structures (convective rainfall areas). This methodology has been applied to the 43 heavy rainfall events using the meteorological radar located near Barcelona and the SAIH automatic raingauge network.

A review of the Tripterygion tripteronotus (Risso, 1810) complex, with a description of a new species from the Mediterranean Sea (Teleostei: Tripterygiidae)

We compared specimens of Tripterygion tripteronotus from 52 localities of the Mediterranean Sea and adjacent waters, using four gene sequences (12S rRNA, tRNA-valine, 16S rRNA and COI) and morphological characters. Two well-differentiated clades with a mean genetic divergence of 6.89±0.73% were found with molecular data, indicating the existence of two different species. These two species have disjunctive geographic distribution areas without any molecular hybrid populations. Subtle but diagnostic morphological differences were also present between the two species. T. tripteronotus is restricted to the northern Mediterranean basin, from the NE coast of Spain to Greece and Turkey, including the islands of Malta and Cyprus. T. tartessicum n. sp. is geographically distributed along the southern coast of Spain, from Cape of La Nao to the Gulf of Cadiz, the Balearic Islands and northern Africa, from Morocco to Tunisia. According to molecular data, these two species could have diverged during the Pliocene glaciations 2.7-3.6 Mya.

A Reply to comments by D. Bar-Yosef M. Stiner on "Prehistoric exploitation of marine resources in Southern Africa with particular reference to shellfish gathering: opportunities and continuities"

I am very grateful to Daniella E. Bar-Yosef Mayer and Mary Stiner for their comments on an article I published in the previous issue of Pyrenae. Having spent many years working with coastal sites in South Africa and now settling in the Mediterranean academic landscape, I value the feedback from these two well-known archaeologists who have dedicated years of hard work in this later part of the world. Their opinions are very much appreciated for they allow me to bring new contexts to some of the (old) questions I have pursued in South Africa, an exercise that would help me with the process of broadening my research interests to the Mediterranean region.

Proposal of three thermodynamic variables to discriminate between storms associated with hail and storms with intense rainfall in Catalonia (Proposta de tres variables termodinàmiques per discriminar entre tempestes amb pedregades i tempestes amb pluges intenses)

Between late spring and early fall, the development of storms is common in Catalonia. Despite the fact that they usually produce heavy showers of short duration, they can also involve severe weather with ice pellets or hail. While the latter usually affect inland regions, and there are numerous publications on these cases; the analysis of events affecting the coast and causing damage to public and private properties is not so well developed. The aim of this study is to provide additional thermodynamic indicators that help differentiate storms with hail from storms without hail, considering cases that have affected various regions of Catalonia, mainly coastal areas. The aim is to give more information to improve prognosis and the ability to detail information in these situations. The procedure developed involved the study of several episodes of heavy rainfall and hail that hit Catalonia during the 2003-2009 period, mainly in the province of Girona, and validated the proposal during the campaign of late summer and fall of 2009, as well as 2012. For each case, several variables related to temperature, humidity and wind were analyzed at different levels of the atmosphere, while the information provided by the radio sounding in Barcelona was also taken into account. From this study, it can be concluded that the temperature difference between 500 hPa and 850 hPa, the humidity in the lower layers of the atmosphere and the LI index are good indicators for the detection of storms with associated hail.

Gone with the Wind and the Southern Way of Life: the Civil War as described in Margaret Mitchell’s Novel

This essay examines the American Civil War of 1861 – 1865, which is also known as the bloodiest war that the United States has ever experienced. The pretext for the war was the abolition of slavery in the South, and after many battles the Southern states lost: as a consequence, they experienced major changes in their economic and social life. This interesting piece from American history can be traced out throughout the characters’ lives in the novel Gone with the Wind which has been thoroughly analyzed in order to draw nearer and to comprehend the changes in the Southern way of life before and after the war. The author, Margaret Mitchell, was born in Atlanta, Georgia, and grew up with the stories about the war. As a result, Gone with the Wind studies not only its causes, but also the years after its end – a period which is not generally a subject of history and receives little attention – and the effects that such reversals have on former planters and slaves. From the position of contemporaneity, the reader can see that such changes in a society do not end with the laying down of an act, or in this case the end of the war, but they continue during many years; thus, the modern world can draw conclusions and lessons for events that are happening at the moment.

Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Short communication. SNP analyses of the 5HT1R and STAT genes in Pacific white shrimp, Litopenaeus vannamei

La industria de la producción de camarón es una de las industrias acuícolas que se encuentra en más crecimiento en la actualidad. Los estudios para encontrar marcadores genéticos son muy efectivos para la mejora de sus propiedades y de gran interés para los productores de camarón. En este trabajo se utilizaron seis individuos de una población de Litopenaeus vannamei, donde se encontraron cuatro polimorfismos de nucleótido único (SNPs) en el gen 5HT1R (5-hidroxitriptamina receptor1) y un SNP en el gen STAT (transductor de señal y activador de la transcripción). Sin embargo, el polimorfismo en el gen STAT resultó ser homocigoto en una población diferente utilizada para análisis de asociación. Los presentes análisis revelaron que el alelo C, en dos polimorfismos SNP (C109T y C395G) del gen 5HT1R, tiende a estar asociado con el aumento del peso corporal. Consideramos que hay necesidad de hacer nuevos estudios utilizando una muestra más amplia y diversa de la población en cuestión.

Time and space: genetic structure of the common sea urchin paracentrotus lividus in the south-eastern iberian coast

Spatio-temporal variability in settlement and recruitment, high mortality during the first life-history stages, and selection may determine the genetic structure of cohorts of long-lived marine invertebrates at small scales. We conducted a spatial and temporal analysis of the common Mediterranean Sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus to determine the genetic structure of cohorts at different scales. In Tossa de Mar (NW Mediterranean), recruitment was followed over 5 consecutive springs (2006-2010). In spring 2008, recruits and two-year-old individuals were collected at 6 locations along East and South Iberian coasts separated from 200 to over 1,100 km. All cohorts presented a high genetic diversity based on a fragment of mtCOI. Our results showed a marked genetic homogeneity in the temporal monitoring and a low degree of spatial structure in 2006. In 2008, coupled with an abnormality in the usual circulation patterns in the area, the genetic structure of the southern populations studied changed markedly, with arrival of many private haplotypes. This fact highlights the importance of point events in renewing the genetic makeup of populations, which can only be detected through analysis of the cohort structure coupling temporal and spatial perspectives.

Land use changes, landscape ecology and their socioeconomic driving forces in the Spanish Mediterranean coast (the Maresme County, 1850-2005)

[cat] Utilitzem un conjunt de mètriques del paisatge per estudiar l'evolució a llarg termini seguida en una típica zona costanera del Mediterrani des de 1850 fins a 2005, que mostren una greu deterioració del medi ambient entre 1950 i 2005. Les principals forces motores d'aquesta degradació del paisatge han estat el creixement urbà experimentat a les antigues zones agrícoles situades a les planes litorals, juntament amb l'abandonament i la reforestació dels vessants dels pujols interceptats per àrees residencials de baixa densitat, carreteres i altres infraestructures lineals. Duem a terme una anàlisi estadística de redundància (RDA) amb la finalitat d'identificar els que considerem com alguns agents rectors socioeconòmics i polítics d'última instància d'aquests impactes ambientals. Els resultats confirmen les nostres hipòtesis interpretatives, que són que: 1) els canvis en les cobertes i usos del sòl determinen canvis en les propietats dels paisatge, tant estructurals com funcionals; 2) aquests canvis no es produeixen per atzar, sinó que estan relacionats amb factors geogràfics i forces socioeconòmiques i polítiques.

Land use changes, landscape ecology and their socioeconomic driving forces in the Spanish Mediterranean coast (the Maresme County, 1850-2005)

[cat] Utilitzem un conjunt de mètriques del paisatge per estudiar l'evolució a llarg termini seguida en una típica zona costanera del Mediterrani des de 1850 fins a 2005, que mostren una greu deterioració del medi ambient entre 1950 i 2005. Les principals forces motores d'aquesta degradació del paisatge han estat el creixement urbà experimentat a les antigues zones agrícoles situades a les planes litorals, juntament amb l'abandonament i la reforestació dels vessants dels pujols interceptats per àrees residencials de baixa densitat, carreteres i altres infraestructures lineals. Duem a terme una anàlisi estadística de redundància (RDA) amb la finalitat d'identificar els que considerem com alguns agents rectors socioeconòmics i polítics d'última instància d'aquests impactes ambientals. Els resultats confirmen les nostres hipòtesis interpretatives, que són que: 1) els canvis en les cobertes i usos del sòl determinen canvis en les propietats dels paisatge, tant estructurals com funcionals; 2) aquests canvis no es produeixen per atzar, sinó que estan relacionats amb factors geogràfics i forces socioeconòmiques i polítiques.