Low birthweight, preterm, and small for gestational age babies in Scotland, 1981-1984.

The aim was to examine the effect of maternal age, gravidity, marital status, previous perinatal deaths, and parental social class on babies born low birthweight, preterm, and small for gestational age. DESIGN--The study used data on discharge summaries from all maternity hospitals in Scotland. SETTING--The study was based on all singleton deliveries in Scotland. PARTICIPANTS--The analysis involved information on 259,462 singleton babies born during the four years 1981-84 in Scotland. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Previous perinatal death was found to be the strongest predictor for both preterm and low birthweight. Single mothers were at particularly high risk of having a small for gestational age baby and those who were previously married of having a preterm baby. Women aged less than 20 years old, those over 34 years old, nulligravidae, and those of parity 3 or more were also at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. Mothers and fathers in manual social classes and those who could not be assigned a social class on the basis of their occupation were at increased risk for all three adverse outcomes studied. The babies of parents who were in manual occupations were twice as likely as those of parents in non-manual occupations to be small for gestational age and almost twice as likely to be low birthweight. CONCLUSIONS--Mother's social class is a risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcome independent of maternal age, parity, and adverse reproductive history, and also independent of father's social class. Information on both parents' occupations should be collected in maternity discharge systems.

On the sources of business cycles in the G-7

This paper examines sources of cyclical movements in output, inflation and the term structure of interest rates. It employs a novel identification approach which uses the sign of the cross correlation function in response to shocks to catalog orthogonal disturbances. We find that demand shocks are the dominant source output, inflation and term structure fluctuations in six of the G-7 countries. Within the class of demand disturbances, nominal shocks are dominant, but their importance declined after 1982. Furthermore, there are no significant differences in the proportion of term structure variability explained by different structural sources at different horizons.

Firm Size and Short-Term Dynamics in Aggregate Entry and Exit

Much of the research on industry dynamics focuses on the interdependence between the sectorial rates of entry and exit. This paper argues that the size of firms and the reaction-adjustment period are important conditions missed in this literature. I illustrate the effects of this omission using data from the Spanish manufacturing industries between 1994 and 2001. Estimates from systems of equations models provide evidence of a conical revolving door phenomenon and of partial adjustments in the replacement-displacement of large firms. KEYWORDS: aggregation, industry dynamics, panel data, symmetry, simultaneity. JEL CLASSIFICATION: C33, C52, L60, L11

Longer-term impacts of mentoring, educational services, and incentives to learn: evidence from a randomized trial in the United States

This paper is the first to use a randomized trial in the US to analyze the short- and long-term educational and employment impacts of an afterschool program that offered disadvantaged high-school youth: mentoring, educational services, and financial rewards with the objective to improve high-school graduation and postsecondary schooling enrollment. The short-term hefty beneficial average impacts quickly faded away. Heterogeneity matters. While encouraging results are found for younger youth, and when the program is implemented in relatively small communities of 9th graders; detrimental longlived outcomes are found for males, and when case managers are partially compensated by incentive payments and students receive more regular reminders of incentives.

Mentoring, educational services, and economic incentives longer-term evidence on risky behaviors from a randomized trial

This paper is the first to use a randomized trial in the US to analyze the short- and long- term impacts of an afterschool program that offered disadvantaged high-school youth: mentoring, educational services, and financial rewards to attend program activities, complete high-school and enroll in post-secondary education on youths' engagement in risky behaviors, such as substance abuse, criminal activity, and teenage childbearing. Outcomes were measured at three different points in time, when youths were in their late-teens, and when they were in their early- and their latetwenties. Overall the program was unsuccessful at reducing risky behaviors. Heterogeneity matters in that perverse effects are concentrated among certain subgroups, such as males, older youths, and youths from sites where youths received higher amount of stipends. We claim that this evidence is consistent with different models of youths' behavioral response to economic incentives. In addition, beneficial effects found in those sites in which QOP youths represented a large fraction of the entering class of 9th graders provides hope for these type of programs when operated in small communities and supports the hypothesis of peer effects.

Optimal coexistence of long-term and short-term contracts in labor Markets

We consider a market where firms hire workers to run their projects and such projects differ in profitability. At any period, each firm needs two workers to successfully run its project: a junior agent, with no specific skills, and a senior worker, whose effort is not verifiable. Senior workers differ in ability and their competence is revealed after they have worked as juniors in the market. We study the length of the contractual relationships between firms and workers in an environment where the matching between firms and workers is the result of market interaction. We show that, despite in a one-firm-one-worker set-up long-term contracts are the optimal choice for firms, market forces often induce firms to use short-term contracts. Unless the market only consists of firms with very profitable projects, firms operating highly profitable projects offer short-term contracts to ensure the service of high-ability workers and those with less lucrative projects also use short-term contracts to save on the junior workers' wage. Intermediate firms may (or may not) hire workers through long-term contracts.

Long-term azithromycin therapy in patients with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and repeated pulmonary exacerbations

L’objectiu es determinar si el tractament amb azitromicina a llarg termini redueix la freqüència d’exacerbacions respiratòries en pacients amb malaltia pulmonar obstructiva crònica (MPOC) greu. Estudi retrospectiu observacional que avalua els beneficis clínics del tractament amb azitromicina a llarg termini (500 mg per via oral tres vegades per setmana) durant 12 mesos en pacients amb MPOC greu amb un mínim de 4 exacerbacions agudes (EAMPOC) per any o colonitzats per Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Es comparen amb els 12 mesos previs a l’introducció de l’azitromicina: nombre de EAMPOC, hospitalitzacions i dies d'estada hospitalària. L’azitromicina a llarg termini s’associa a una reducció significativa de EAMPOC, hospitalitzacions i dies d’estada hospitalària en pacients amb EPOC greu independentment de la colonització basal.

The effect of counterpoise correction and relaxation energy term to the internal rotation barriers: application to the BF3 ...NH3 and C2H4 ...SO2 dimers

The relevance of the fragment relaxation energy term and the effect of the basis set superposition error on the geometry of the BF3⋯NH3 and C2H4⋯SO2 van der Waals dimers have been analyzed. Second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory calculations with the d95(d,p) basis set have been used to calculate the counterpoise-corrected barrier height for the internal rotations. These barriers have been obtained by relocating the stationary points on the counterpoise-corrected potential energy surface of the processes involved. The fragment relaxation energy can have a large influence on both the intermolecular parameters and barrier height. The counterpoise correction has proved to be important for these systems

Impairment of mossy fiber long-term potentiation and associative learning in pituitary adenylate cyclase activating polypeptide type I receptor-deficient Mice

The pituitary adenylate cyclase activating polypeptide (PACAP) type I receptor (PAC1) is a G-protein-coupled receptor binding the strongly conserved neuropeptide PACAP with 1000-fold higher affinity than the related peptide vasoactive intestinal peptide. PAC1-mediated signaling has been implicated in neuronal differentiation and synaptic plasticity. To gain further insight into the biological significance of PAC1-mediated signaling in vivo, we generated two different mutant mouse strains, harboring either a complete or a forebrain-specific inactivation of PAC1. Mutants from both strains show a deficit in contextual fear conditioning, a hippocampus-dependent associative learning paradigm. In sharp contrast, amygdala-dependent cued fear conditioning remains intact. Interestingly, no deficits in other hippocampus-dependent tasks modeling declarative learning such as the Morris water maze or the social transmission of food preference are observed. At the cellular level, the deficit in hippocampus-dependent associative learning is accompanied by an impairment of mossy fiber long-term potentiation (LTP). Because the hippocampal expression of PAC1 is restricted to mossy fiber terminals, we conclude that presynaptic PAC1-mediated signaling at the mossy fiber synapse is involved in both LTP and hippocampus-dependent associative learning.

Civil conflict and human capital accumulation: The long-term effects of political violence in Perú

This paper provides empirical evidence of the persistent effect of exposure to political violence on humancapital accumulation. I exploit the variation in conflict location and birth cohorts to identify the longandshort-term effects of the civil war on educational attainment. Conditional on being exposed toviolence, the average person accumulates 0.31 less years of education as an adult. In the short-term,the effects are stronger than in the long-run; these results hold when comparing children within thesame household. Further, exposure to violence during early childhood leads to permanent losses. I alsoexplore the potential causal mechanisms.

On the term structure of Interbank interest rates: Jump-diffusion processes and option pricing

In this paper we study the dynamic behavior of the term structureof Interbank interest rates and the pricing of options on interest ratesensitive securities. We posit a generalized single factor model withjumps to take into account external influences in the market. Daily datais used to test for jump effects. Qualitative examination of the linkagebetween Monetary Authorities' interventions and jumps are studied. Pricingresults suggests a systematic underpricing in bonds and call options ifthe jumps component is not included. However, the pricing of put optionson bonds presents indeterminacies.

Fixed-term contracts and the duration distribution of unemployment

In the mid-1980s, many European countries introduced fixed-term contracts.Since then their labor markets have become more dynamic. This paper studiesthe implications of such reforms for the duration distribution ofunemployment, with particular emphasis on the changes in the durationdependence. I estimate a parametric duration model using cross-sectionaldata drawn from the Spanish Labor Force Survey from 1980 to 1994 to analyzethe chances of leaving unemployment before and after the introduction offixed-term contracts. I find that duration dependence has increased sincesuch reform. Semi-parametric estimation of the model also shows that forlong spells, the probability of leaving unemployment has decreased sincesuch reform.

Short-term investment and equilibrium multiplicity

I study the effects of the heterogeneity of traders'horizon in the context of a 2-period NREE model whereall traders are risk averse. Owing to inventory effects,myopic trading behavior generates multiplicity ofequilibria. In particular, two distinct patterns arise.Along the first equilibrium, short term tradersanticipate higher second period price reaction toinformation arrival and, owing to risk aversion,scale back their trading intensity. This, in turn,reduces both risk sharing and information impoundinginto prices enforcing a high returns' volatility-lowprice informativeness equilibrium. In the second one,the opposite happens and a low volatility-high priceinformativeness equilibrium arises.

Stock returns, term structure, inflation and real activity: An international perspective

This paper analyses the empirical interdependences among assetreturns, real activity and inflation from a multicountry and internationalpoint of view. We find that nominal stock returns are significantly relatedto inflation only in the US, that the US term structure of interest ratespredicts both domestic and foreign inflation rates while foreign termstructures do not have this predictive power and that innovations in inflationand exchange rates induce insignificant responses of real and financialvariables. An interpretation of the dynamics and some policy implicationsof the results are provided.

Hiring and firing costs, adverse selection and long-term unemployment

In this paper, we present a matching model with adverse selection that explains why flows into and out of unemployment are much lower in Europe compared to North America, while employment-to-employment flows are similar in the two continents. In the model,firms use discretion in terms of whom to fire and, thus, low quality workers are more likely to be dismissed than high quality workers. Moreover, as hiring and firing costs increase, firms find it more costly to hire a bad worker and, thus, they prefer to hire out of the pool of employed job seekers rather than out of the pool of the unemployed, who are more likely to turn out to be 'lemons'. We use microdata for Spain and the U.S. and find that the ratio of the job finding probability of the unemployed to the job finding probability of employed job seekers was smaller in Spain than in the U.S. Furthermore, using U.S. data, we find that the discrimination of the unemployed increased over the 1980's in those states that raised firing costs by introducing exceptions to the employment-at-will doctrine.