Eficàcia predictiva de l’HCR-20 i del PCL:SV en contexts institucionals

L’estudi es dirigeix a avaluar la capacitat predictiva sobre la violència dels instruments de judici clínic estructurat, amb una metodologia que aporti resultats comparables a estudis de l’àmbit internacional. La investigació es va portar a terme en un hospital civil de salut mental i la mostra està composta per 114 pacients de les unitats de crònics i subaguts. A l’avaluació inicial, l’HCR-20, el PCL:SV i el Protocol 7 van ser els instruments utilitzats per a la recollida d’informació de les variables predictors. La variable depenent o resultat va ser registrada prospectivament per part de l’equip d’infermeria amb un instrument observacional de fàcil ús, el MOAS. Mitjançant índexs de correlació, càlcul de riscos relatius, i anàlisis de regressió logística i corbes ROC va ser possible conèixer que l’HCR-20 i el PCL-SV són mesures vàlides per a la predicció de la violència intrahospitalària en el curt i mig termini en una mostra espanyola de persones amb malaltia mental severa. L’HCR-20 i particularment els ítems clínics van ser els millors predictors de la violència física envers a persones i objectes. Tant la puntuació numèrica de l’HCR-20 com el judici clínic estructurat van demostrar una precisió predictiva alta i comparable a l'obtinguda amb la versió original de l'instrument. El PCL:SV va arribar una precisió predictiva moderada que va anar disminuint al llarg del seguiment. Altres factors de risc com les agressions o la ira prèvies a l’avaluació també van augmentar significativament el risc de violència durant l’any de seguiment.

Estudio de la extracción química del fe en madera arqueológica subacuatica tratada previamente con peg 4000

Debido a la gran cantidad de muestras arqueológicas impregnadas con PEG que se encuentran contaminadas por compuestos insolubles de hierro, se plantea la posible extracción y formación de complejos Fe-L (L=PBTC) y sus efectos en (i) la estructura de la matriz orgánica, (ii) la estructura y propiedades físicas del PEG y (iii) el comportamiento de la muestra en la etapa posterior de almacenamiento. El proyecto analiza la formación de compuestos químicos y posibles modificaciones estructurales en el proceso de extracción del hierro. Consiste en un estudio sistemático de un sistema químico y su influencia en los procesos de precipitación de Fe3+ en medio acuoso. El proyecto se fundamenta en: (1) desarrollar un proceso experimental de optimización para la extracción de las sales contaminantes y (2) encontrar las técnicas analíticas óptimas que permitan apreciar modificaciones estructurales de los diferentes sistemas. Se determina la cantidad de hierro extraído mediante A.A. Las interacciones entre PBTC y PEG se analizan por IR. Las modificaciones de determinadas propiedades físicas se determinan por DSC y las estructurales mediante SEM. En las condiciones termodinámicas óptimas se obtiene una extracción superficial del hierro (30-35%). La disolución del PEG origina modificaciones de la masa y el volumen de la muestra

Lamellarin D bioconjugates I: synthesis and cellular internalization of PEG-derivatives

Herein is reported the design and synthesis of poly(ethylene glycol) derivatives of Lamellarin D with the aim of modulating their physicochemical properties, and improving the biological activity. Mono-, di- and tri-PEG conjugates with improved solubility were obtained in 18-57% overall yields from the corresponding partially protected phenolic derivatives of Lamellarin D. Conjugates 1-9 were tested in a panel of three human tumor cell lines (MDA-MB-231 breast, A-549 lung and HT-29 colon) to evaluate their cytotoxicity. Several compounds exhibited enhanced cellular internalization, and more than 85% of the derivatives showed a lower GI50 than Lam-D. Furthermore, cell cycle arrest at G2 phase, and apoptotic cell-death pathways were determined for Lamellarin D and these derivatives.

Lamellarin D bioconjugates I: synthesis and cellular internalization of PEG-derivatives

Herein is reported the design and synthesis of poly(ethylene glycol) derivatives of Lamellarin D with the aim of modulating their physicochemical properties, and improving the biological activity. Mono-, di- and tri-PEG conjugates with improved solubility were obtained in 18-57% overall yields from the corresponding partially protected phenolic derivatives of Lamellarin D. Conjugates 1-9 were tested in a panel of three human tumor cell lines (MDA-MB-231 breast, A-549 lung and HT-29 colon) to evaluate their cytotoxicity. Several compounds exhibited enhanced cellular internalization, and more than 85% of the derivatives showed a lower GI50 than Lam-D. Furthermore, cell cycle arrest at G2 phase, and apoptotic cell-death pathways were determined for Lamellarin D and these derivatives.

Phase behavior and rheological analysis of reverse liquid crystals and W/I2, W/H2 gel emulsions using an amphiphilic block copolymer.

This article reports the phase behavior determi- nation of a system forming reverse liquid crystals and the formation of novel disperse systems in the two-phase region. The studied system is formed by water, cyclohexane, and Pluronic L-121, an amphiphilic block copolymer considered of special interest due to its aggregation and structural proper- ties. This system forms reverse cubic (I2) and reverse hexagonal (H2) phases at high polymer concentrations. These reverse phases are of particular interest since in the two-phase region, stable high internal phase reverse emulsions can be formed. The characterization of the I2 and H2 phases and of the derived gel emulsions was performed with small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and rheometry, and the influence of temperature and water content was studied. TheH2 phase experimented a thermal transition to an I2 phase when temperature was increased, which presented an Fd3m structure. All samples showed a strong shear thinning behavior from low shear rates. The elasticmodulus (G0) in the I2 phase was around 1 order of magnitude higher than in theH2 phase. G0 was predominantly higher than the viscousmodulus (G00). In the gel emulsions,G0 was nearly frequency-independent, indicating their gel type nature. Contrarily to water-in-oil (W/O) normal emulsions, in W/I2 and W/H2 gel emulsions, G0, the complex viscosity (|η*|), and the yield stress (τ0) decreased with increasing water content, since the highly viscous microstructure of the con- tinuous phase was responsible for the high viscosity and elastic behavior of the emulsions, instead of the volumefraction of dispersed phase and droplet size. A rheological analysis, in which the cooperative flow theory, the soft glass rheology model, and the slip plane model were analyzed and compared, was performed to obtain one single model that could describe the non-Maxwellian behavior of both reverse phases and highly concentrated emulsions and to characterize their microstructure with the rheological properties.

Tomato response to a high light transmission greenhouse film

Increasing greenhouse light transmission has a positive effect not only in Northern latitudes but in Mediterranean countries as well. A greenhouse, H2, with a tetrafluoroethylene copolymer 60 microns film, (Asahi Glass company, Aflex) characterised by its high light transmission and durability was compared to another greenhouse with a co-extruded film considered as a control, H1. Tomato crop response to the increase in light during winter and summer with high temperature and light was evaluated. Light transmission in H2 remained very high in spite of the observed dust accumulation and the low angle of incidence of the winter solar radiation. Transmissivity was clearly higher for H2 (81 to 83 % throughout the season) than in the control (around 63 %). The rest of the climatic parameters were similar in both greenhouses, either in the winter or in the summer evaluations. In spite of the high solar radiation in H2, the summer temperature could be maintained at the desired levels by using evaporative cooling. Accumulated tomato yield and quality was better in the H2 greenhouse (15 % more for the winter crop and 27% more for the summer crop). Fruit size was bigger in the winter crop. As an overall conclusion, the use of high light transmissive films in Mediterranean areas is very convenient for many vegetable crops. This is valid not only in winter but in summer, provided the greenhouse has good ventilation or evaporative cooling to overcome the increase in sensible heat caused by this increase in light..

The Monetary policy rules and the inflation process in open emerging

This paper has three objectives. First, it aims at revealing the logic of interest rate setting pursued by monetary authorities of 12 new EU members. Using estimation of an augmented Taylor rule, we find that this setting was not always consistent with the official monetary policy. Second, we seek to shed light on the inflation process of these countries. To this end, we carry out an estimation of an open economy Philips curve (PC). Our main finding is that inflation rates were not only driven by backward persistency but also held a forward-looking component. Finally, we assess the viability of existing monetary arrangements for price stability. The analysis of the conditional inflation variance obtained from GARCH estimation of PC is used for this purpose. We conclude that inflation targeting is preferable to an exchange rate peg because it allowed decreasing the inflation rate and anchored its volatility.

Desenvolupament de vacunes peptídiques y dendrímers basats en polietilenglicol per al tractament del càncer

El principal problema de les teràpies actuals contra el càncer es la baixa especificitat envers les cèl•lules tumorals, cosa que comporta gran quantitat d’efectes secundaris. Per això es important el desenvolupament de nous tipus de teràpies i sistemes d’alliberament efectius per als fàrmacs ja existents al mercat. En la immunoteràpia contra el càncer es pretén estimular el sistema immunològic per a eliminar les cèl•lules canceroses de manera selectiva. En aquest projecte s’han sintetitzat derivats de l’antigen peptídic de melanoma NY-ESO1 i s’ha estudiat la seva capacitat per a estimular el sistema immunològic com a vacunes contra el càncer. També s’han encapsulat el antígens peptídics en liposomes com a adjuvants i sistemes d’alliberament. De totes les variants peptídiques la que resultà més immunogènica fou la que contenia el grup palmitoil i el fragment toxoide tetànic en la seva estructura. La utilització de liposomes com a sistema adjuvant sembla una estratègia interessant per al disseny de vacunes contra el càncer donat que l’encapsulació del pèptid en liposomes va augmentar notablement la resposta immunològica de l’antigen. Per altra banda, s’han desenvolupat dendrímers basats en polietilenglicol com a sistemes alliberadors de fàrmacs per al tractament de tumors. El polietilenglicol és àmpliament utilitzat com a sistema d’alliberament de fàrmacs degut a les seves interessants propietats, augment de la solubilitat i dels temps de residència en plasma, entre d’altres. La metodologia química descrita permet la diferenciació controlada de varies posicions en la superfície del dendrímer a més del creixement del dendrímer fins a una segona generació. S’ha sintetitzat la primera generació del dendrímer contenint el fàrmac antitumoral 5-fluorouracil i s’han realitzat estudis de citotoxicitat comprovant que l’activitat del nanoconjugat és del mateix ordre de magnitud que el 5-fluorouracil sense conjugar.

Factores predictores del riesgo en los agresores violentos encarcelados

La finalidad de este estudio cuasi-experimental fue fue identificar los factores de riesgo para la reincidencia en los delitos violentos, sexuales y delitos de violencia doméstica y evaluar la eficacia del tratamiento. Se seleccionó una muestra de 120 internos del Centre Penitenciari Ponent condenados por delitos violentos, sexuales y de violencia doméstica que obtuvieron la libertad entre los años 2001 y 2006; el período de seguimiento osciló entre 3 y 8 años. Se analizaron veintisiete variables agrupadas en factores de riesgo y la reincidencia. Los datos se obtuvieron de la administración del HCR-20, de la SVR-20, de la S.A.R.A., de la PCL-R, del IPDE y del MMPI-2 y de las bases de datos del Departamento de justicia de Cataluña. Los internos con trastorno mental reincidieron más en delitos sexuales y de violencia doméstica y aquellos con trastornos de personalidad reincidieron más en delitos violentos. Una puntuación elevada en HCR-20, SVR-20, S.A.R.A. y PCL-R incrementó el riesgo de reincidencia. Al contrario, superar el tratamiento reduce la reincidencia pero presentar trastornos mentales, trastornos de personalidad, toxicomanías y puntuar alto en el HCR-20 y en la PCL-R dificultaron superar el tratamiento. A mayor período de seguimiento menor capacidad predictiva de los instrumentos de evaluación del riesgo y del tratamiento.

Validació i quantificació del trastorn psicopàtic de la personalitat en l'àmbit de la medicina forense de Catalunya

El treball avalua amb PCL:SV 18 subjectes imputats per delictes de robatoris amb intimidació, homicidi, violació en sèrie, assassinat, lesions, assetjament sexual. Es mostren els resultats descriptius de la PCL:SV aplicada: puntuacions, mitjanes, distribució de mesura.

Beyond Smith's rule: An optimal dynamic index, rule for single machine stochastic scheduling with convex holding costs

Most research on single machine scheduling has assumedthe linearity of job holding costs, which is arguablynot appropriate in some applications. This motivates ourstudy of a model for scheduling $n$ classes of stochasticjobs on a single machine, with the objective of minimizingthe total expected holding cost (discounted or undiscounted). We allow general holding cost rates that are separable,nondecreasing and convex on the number of jobs in eachclass. We formulate the problem as a linear program overa certain greedoid polytope, and establish that it issolved optimally by a dynamic (priority) index rule,whichextends the classical Smith's rule (1956) for the linearcase. Unlike Smith's indices, defined for each class, ournew indices are defined for each extended class, consistingof a class and a number of jobs in that class, and yieldan optimal dynamic index rule: work at each time on a jobwhose current extended class has larger index. We furthershow that the indices possess a decomposition property,as they are computed separately for each class, andinterpret them in economic terms as marginal expected cost rate reductions per unit of expected processing time.We establish the results by deploying a methodology recentlyintroduced by us [J. Niño-Mora (1999). "Restless bandits,partial conservation laws, and indexability. "Forthcomingin Advances in Applied Probability Vol. 33 No. 1, 2001],based on the satisfaction by performance measures of partialconservation laws (PCL) (which extend the generalizedconservation laws of Bertsimas and Niño-Mora (1996)):PCL provide a polyhedral framework for establishing theoptimality of index policies with special structure inscheduling problems under admissible objectives, which weapply to the model of concern.

Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, which relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information delays the attack on the currency past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals the peg, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations.

Restless bandits, partial conservation laws and indexability

We show that if performance measures in a stochastic scheduling problem satisfy a set of so-called partial conservation laws (PCL), which extend previously studied generalized conservation laws (GCL), then the problem is solved optimally by a priority-index policy for an appropriate range of linear performance objectives, where the optimal indices are computed by a one-pass adaptive-greedy algorithm, based on Klimov's. We further apply this framework to investigate the indexability property of restless bandits introduced by Whittle, obtaining the following results: (1) we identify a class of restless bandits (PCL-indexable) which are indexable; membership in this class is tested through a single run of the adaptive-greedy algorithm, which also computes the Whittle indices when the test is positive; this provides a tractable sufficient condition for indexability; (2) we further indentify the class of GCL-indexable bandits, which includes classical bandits, having the property that they are indexable under any linear reward objective. The analysis is based on the so-called achievable region method, as the results follow fromnew linear programming formulations for the problems investigated.

Constant interest rate projections without the curse of indeterminacy

Constant interest rate (CIR) projections are often criticized on the grounds that they are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in a variety of forward-looking models. This note shows howto construct CIR projections that are not subject to that criticism, using a standard New Keynesian model as a reference framework.

Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy

We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyze the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rule-based policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference amongthese regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.