Differential effects of two virtual reality interventions: distraction versus pain control

There is evidence that virtual reality (VR) pain distraction is effective at improving pain-related outcomes. However, more research is needed to investigate VR environments with other pain-related goals. The main aim of this study was to compare the differential effects of two VR environments on a set of pain-related and cognitive variables during a cold pressor experiment. One of these environments aimed to distract attention away from pain (VRD), whereas the other was designed to enhance pain control (VRC). Participants were 77 psychology students, who were randomly assigned to one of the following three conditions during the cold pressor experiment: (a) VRD, (b) VRC, or (c) Non-VR (control condition). Data were collected regarding both pain-related variables (intensity, tolerance, threshold, time perception, and pain sensitivity range) and cognitive variables (self-efficacy and catastrophizing). Results showed that in comparison with the control condition, the VRC intervention significantly increased pain tolerance, the pain sensitivity range, and the degree of time underestimation. It also increased self-efficacy in tolerating pain and led to a reduction in reported helplessness. The VRD intervention significantly increased the pain threshold and pain tolerance in comparison with the control condition, but it did not affect any of the cognitive variables. Overall, the intervention designed to enhance control seems to have a greater effect on the cognitive variables assessed. Although these results need to be replicated in further studies, the findings suggest that the VRC intervention has considerable potential in terms of increasing self-efficacy and modifying the negative thoughts that commonly accompany pain problems.

Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach

We use a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification to assess whether the Central and East European countries (CEECs) are synchronized in their business cycles to the Euro-area. This specification is useful in two ways: First, it takes into account the common institutional factors and the similarities across CEECs in their process of economic transition. Second, it captures business cycle asymmetries by allowing for the presence of two distinct regimes for the CEECs. As the CEECs are strongly affected by the Euro-area these regimes may be associated with Euro-area expansions and contractions. We discuss representation, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference. The methodology is illustrated by using monthly industrial production in 8 CEECs. The results show that apart from Lithuania the rest of the CEECs experience “normal” growth when the Euro-area contracts and “high” growth when the Euro-area expands. Given that the CEECs are “catching up” with the Euro-area this result shows that most CEECs seem synchronized to the Euro-area cycle. Keywords: Threshold SURE; asymmetry; business cycles; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; C50; E32.

A nonlinear threshold model for the dependence of extremes of stationary sequences

One of the main implications of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is that expected future returns on financial assets are not predictable if investors are risk neutral. In this paper we argue that financial time series offer more information than that this hypothesis seems to supply. In particular we postulate that runs of very large returns can be predictable for small time periods. In order to prove this we propose a TAR(3,1)-GARCH(1,1) model that is able to describe two different types of extreme events: a first type generated by large uncertainty regimes where runs of extremes are not predictable and a second type where extremes come from isolated dread/joy events. This model is new in the literature in nonlinear processes. Its novelty resides on two features of the model that make it different from previous TAR methodologies. The regimes are motivated by the occurrence of extreme values and the threshold variable is defined by the shock affecting the process in the preceding period. In this way this model is able to uncover dependence and clustering of extremes in high as well as in low volatility periods. This model is tested with data from General Motors stocks prices corresponding to two crises that had a substantial impact in financial markets worldwide; the Black Monday of October 1987 and September 11th, 2001. By analyzing the periods around these crises we find evidence of statistical significance of our model and thereby of predictability of extremes for September 11th but not for Black Monday. These findings support the hypotheses of a big negative event producing runs of negative returns in the first case, and of the burst of a worldwide stock market bubble in the second example. JEL classification: C12; C15; C22; C51 Keywords and Phrases: asymmetries, crises, extreme values, hypothesis testing, leverage effect, nonlinearities, threshold models

El Théâtre de La Mie de Pain, un exemple del teatre de l’actor-creador

L’autora del treball, Élisabeth Cauchetiez, va formar part del grup Théâtre de La Mie de Pain des del setembre 1979 al febrer 1989, La intenció de la recerca és de fer de l’experiència subjectiva un objecte d’observació. Desprès de definir què és el teatre de l’actor creador, en un moment de la història del teatre on la creació col•lectiva va assolir la dimensió de fascinació. fa esment als fonaments sociològics del Théâtre de La Mie de Pain i analitza les programacions dels festivals i gires, així com la recepció que la crítica teatral va fer dels seus espectacles. Explica el procés d’elaboració dels espectacles : “Blanche-Neige au royaume de Fantochie”, “Séance-Friction”, “Seul ... Les requins ! “, “Terminus Hôpital ” i “Starjob”.

Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models

This paper proposes a contemporaneous-threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. A key feature of the model is that the transition function depends on all the parameters of the model as well as on the data. Since the mixing weights are also a function of the regime-specific innovation covariance matrix, the model can account for contemporaneous regime-specific co-movements of the variables. The stability and distributional properties of the proposed model are discussed, as well as issues of estimation, testing and forecasting. The practical usefulness of the C-MSTAR model is illustrated by examining the relationship between US stock prices and interest rates.

State-dependent threshold STAR models

In this paper we consider extensions of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to situations where the threshold is a time-varying function of variables that affect the separation of regimes of the time series under consideration. Our specification is motivated by the observation that unusually high/low values for an economic variable may sometimes be best thought of in relative terms. State-dependent logistic STAR and contemporaneous-threshold STAR models are introduced and discussed. These models are also used to investigate the dynamics of U.S. short-term interest rates, where the threshold is allowed to be a function of past output growth and inflation.

Reconstruction threshold for the hardcore model

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Modelling world investment markets using threshold conditional correlation models

In this paper we propose a parsimonious regime-switching approach to model the correlations between assets, the threshold conditional correlation (TCC) model. This method allows the dynamics of the correlations to change from one state (or regime) to another as a function of observable transition variables. Our model is similar in spirit to Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2009) and Pelletier (2006) but with the appealing feature that it does not suffer from the course of dimensionality. In particular, estimation of the parameters of the TCC involves a simple grid search procedure. In addition, it is easy to guarantee a positive definite correlation matrix because the TCC estimator is given by the sample correlation matrix, which is positive definite by construction. The methodology is illustrated by evaluating the behaviour of international equities, govenrment bonds and major exchange rates, first separately and then jointly. We also test and allow for different parts in the correlation matrix to be governed by different transition variables. For this, we estimate a multi-threshold TCC specification. Further, we evaluate the economic performance of the TCC model against a constant conditional correlation (CCC) estimator using a Diebold-Mariano type test. We conclude that threshold correlation modelling gives rise to a significant reduction in portfolio´s variance.

On the throughput-WIP trade-off in queueing systems, diminishing returns and the threshold property: A linear programming approach

We present a new unifying framework for investigating throughput-WIP(Work-in-Process) optimal control problems in queueing systems,based on reformulating them as linear programming (LP) problems withspecial structure: We show that if a throughput-WIP performance pairin a stochastic system satisfies the Threshold Property we introducein this paper, then we can reformulate the problem of optimizing alinear objective of throughput-WIP performance as a (semi-infinite)LP problem over a polygon with special structure (a thresholdpolygon). The strong structural properties of such polygones explainthe optimality of threshold policies for optimizing linearperformance objectives: their vertices correspond to the performancepairs of threshold policies. We analyze in this framework theversatile input-output queueing intensity control model introduced byChen and Yao (1990), obtaining a variety of new results, including (a)an exact reformulation of the control problem as an LP problem over athreshold polygon; (b) an analytical characterization of the Min WIPfunction (giving the minimum WIP level required to attain a targetthroughput level); (c) an LP Value Decomposition Theorem that relatesthe objective value under an arbitrary policy with that of a giventhreshold policy (thus revealing the LP interpretation of Chen andYao's optimality conditions); (d) diminishing returns and invarianceproperties of throughput-WIP performance, which underlie thresholdoptimality; (e) a unified treatment of the time-discounted andtime-average cases.

Subsampling inference in threshold autoregressive models

This paper discusses inference in self exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR)models. Of main interest is inference for the threshold parameter. It iswell-known that the asymptotics of the corresponding estimator depend uponwhether the SETAR model is continuous or not. In the continuous case, thelimiting distribution is normal and standard inference is possible. Inthe discontinuous case, the limiting distribution is non-normal and cannotbe estimated consistently. We show valid inference can be drawn by theuse of the subsampling method. Moreover, the method can even be extendedto situations where the (dis)continuity of the model is unknown. In thiscase, also the inference for the regression parameters of the modelbecomes difficult and subsampling can be used advantageously there aswell. In addition, we consider an hypothesis test for the continuity ofthe SETAR model. A simulation study examines small sample performance.

Surviving in a competitive spatial market: The threshold capture model

Most facility location decision models ignore the fact that for a facility to survive it needs a minimum demand level to cover costs. In this paper we present a decision model for a firm thatwishes to enter a spatial market where there are several competitors already located. This market is such that for each outlet there is a demand threshold level that has to be achievedin order to survive. The firm wishes to know where to locate itsoutlets so as to maximize its market share taking into account the threshold level. It may happen that due to this new entrance, some competitors will not be able to meet the threshold and therefore will disappear. A formulation is presented together with a heuristic solution method and computational experience.

Psychometric characteristics of the Spanish version of instruments to measure neck pain disability

Background: The NDI, COM and NPQ are evaluation instruments for disability due to NP. There was no Spanish version of NDI or COM for which psychometric characteristics were known. The objectives of this study were to translate and culturally adapt the Spanish version of the Neck Disability Index Questionnaire (NDI), and the Core Outcome Measure (COM), to validate its use in Spanish speaking patients with non-specific neck pain (NP), and to compare their psychometric characteristics with those of the Spanish version of the Northwick Pain Questionnaire (NPQ).Methods: Translation/re-translation of the English versions of the NDI and the COM was done blindly and independently by a multidisciplinary team. The study was done in 9 primary care Centers and 12 specialty services from 9 regions in Spain, with 221 acute, subacute and chronic patients who visited their physician for NP: 54 in the pilot phase and 167 in the validation phase. Neck pain (VAS), referred pain (VAS), disability (NDI, COM and NPQ), catastrophizing (CSQ) and quality of life (SF-12) were measured on their first visit and 14 days later. Patients' self-assessment was used as the external criterion for pain and disability. In the pilot phase, patients' understanding of each item in the NDI and COM was assessed, and on day 1 test-retest reliability was estimated by giving a second NDI and COM in which the name of the questionnaires and the order of the items had been changed.Results: Comprehensibility of NDI and COM were good. Minutes needed to fill out the questionnaires [median, (P25, P75)]: NDI. 4 (2.2, 10.0), COM: 2.1 (1.0, 4.9). Reliability: [ICC, (95%CI)]: NDI: 0.88 (0.80, 0.93). COM: 0.85 (0.75,0.91). Sensitivity to change: Effect size for patients having worsened, not changed and improved between days 1 and 15, according to the external criterion for disability: NDI: -0.24, 0.15, 0.66; NPQ: -0.14, 0.06, 0.67; COM: 0.05, 0.19, 0.92. Validity: Results of NDI, NPQ and COM were consistent with the external criterion for disability, whereas only those from NDI were consistent with the one for pain. Correlations with VAS, CSQ and SF-12 were similar for NDI and NPQ (absolute values between 0.36 and 0.50 on day 1, between 0.38 and 0.70 on day 15), and slightly lower for COM (between 0.36 and 0.48 on day 1, and between 0.33 and 0.61 on day 15). Correlation between NDI and NPQ: r = 0.84 on day 1, r = 0.91 on day 15. Correlation between COM and NPQ: r = 0.63 on day 1, r = 0.71 on day 15.Conclusion: Although most psychometric characteristics of NDI, NPQ and COM are similar, those from the latter one are worse and its use may lead to patients' evolution seeming more positive than it actually is. NDI seems to be the best instrument for measuring NP-related disability, since its results are the most consistent with patient's assessment of their own clinical status and evolution. It takes two more minutes to answer the NDI than to answer the COM, but it can be reliably filled out by the patient without assistance.

The Effect of a threshold proportional reinsurance strategy on ruin probabilities

[spa] En un modelo de Poisson compuesto, definimos una estrategia de reaseguro proporcional de umbral : se aplica un nivel de retención k1 siempre que las reservas sean inferiores a un determinado umbral b, y un nivel de retención k2 en caso contrario. Obtenemos la ecuación íntegro-diferencial para la función Gerber-Shiu, definida en Gerber-Shiu -1998- en este modelo, que nos permite obtener las expresiones de la probabilidad de ruina y de la transformada de Laplace del momento de ruina para distintas distribuciones de la cuantía individual de los siniestros. Finalmente presentamos algunos resultados numéricos.

Threshold effects on heavy quark production in gamma gamma interactions

The exchange of gluons between heavy quarks produced in e+e- interactions results in an enhancement of their production near threshold. We study QCD threshold effects in collisions. The results are relevant to heavy quark production by beamstrahlung and laser backscattering in future linear collider experiments. Detailed predictions for top-, bottom-, and charm-quark production are presented.

Absence of epidemic threshold in scale free networks with degree correlations

Random scale-free networks have the peculiar property of being prone to the spreading of infections. Here we provide for the susceptible-infected-susceptible model an exact result showing that a scale-free degree distribution with diverging second moment is a sufficient condition to have null epidemic threshold in unstructured networks with either assortative or disassortative mixing. Degree correlations result therefore irrelevant for the epidemic spreading picture in these scale-free networks. The present result is related to the divergence of the average nearest neighbors degree, enforced by the degree detailed balance condition.