The illusion of control, the structures of prizes and the demand for football pools in Spain

Using data for all the fixtures for the seasons from 1972-73 to 2002-03, we estimate a dynamic model of demand for football pools in Spain paying attention to whether their main economic explanatory variable is the effective price of a ticket or the jackpot. Additionally, we evaluate the importance of the composition of the list of games in terms of whether First Division matches are included or not. Results show that the jackpot model is preferred to the effective price model, having important implications in terms of how the structure of the game should be changed in order to increase demand.

Can You Home Again? Desertion and Control of Hometowns in Civil Wars

What allows an armed group in a civil war to prevent desertion? This paper addresses this question with a focus on control in the rearguard. Most past studies focus on motivations for desertion. They explain desertion in terms of where soldiers stand in relation to the macro themes of the war, or in terms of an inability to provide positive incentives to overcome the collective action problem. However, since individuals decide whether and how to participate in civil wars for multiple reasons, responding to a variety of local conditions in an environment of threat and violence, a focus only on macro-level motivations is incomplete. The opportunities side of the ledger deserves more attention. I therefore turn my attention to how control by an armed group eliminates soldiers’ opportunities to desert. In particular, I consider the control that an armed group maintains over soldiers’ hometowns, treating geographic terrain as an important exogenous indicator of the ease of control. Rough terrain at home affords soldiers and their families and friends advantages in ease of hiding, the difficulty of using force, and local knowledge. Based on an original dataset of soldiers from Santander Province in the Spanish Civil War, gathered from archival sources, I find statistical evidence that the rougher the terrain in a soldier’s home municipality, the more likely he is to desert. I find complementary qualitative evidence indicating that soldiers from rough-terrain communities took active advantage of their greater opportunities for evasion. This finding has important implications for the way observers interpret different soldiers’ decisions to desert or remain fighting, for the prospect that structural factors may shape the cohesion of armed groups, and for the possibility that local knowledge may be a double-edged sword, making soldiers simultaneously good at fighting and good at deserting.

Predictive motion control of a mirosot mobile robot

This paper discusses predictive motion control of a MiRoSoT robot. The dynamic model of the robot is deduced by taking into account the whole process - robot, vision, control and transmission systems. Based on the obtained dynamic model, an integrated predictive control algorithm is proposed to position precisely with either stationary or moving obstacle avoidance. This objective is achieved automatically by introducing distant constraints into the open-loop optimization of control inputs. Simulation results demonstrate the feasibility of such control strategy for the deduced dynamic model

Modeling and control of electromechanical systems

The material presented in the these notes covers the sessions Modelling of electromechanical systems, Passive control theory I and Passive control theory II of the II EURON/GEOPLEX Summer School on Modelling and Control of Complex Dynamical Systems.We start with a general description of what an electromechanical system is from a network modelling point of view. Next, a general formulation in terms of PHDS is introduced, and some of the previous electromechanical systems are rewritten in this formalism. Power converters, which are variable structure systems (VSS), can also be given a PHDS form.We conclude the modelling part of these lectures with a rather complex example, showing the interconnection of subsystems from several domains, namely an arrangement to temporally store the surplus energy in a section of a metropolitan transportation system based on dc motor vehicles, using either arrays of supercapacitors or an electric poweredflywheel. The second part of the lectures addresses control of PHD systems. We first present the idea of control as power connection of a plant and a controller. Next we discuss how to circumvent this obstacle and present the basic ideas of Interconnection and Damping Assignment (IDA) passivity-based control of PHD systems.

Reactive Recruitment of Attentional Control in Math Anxiety: An ERP Study of Numeric Conflict Monitoring and Adaptation

This study uses event-related brain potentials (ERPs) to investigate the electrophysiological correlates of numeric conflict monitoring in math-anxious individuals, by analyzing whether math anxiety is related to abnormal processing in early conflict detection (as shown by the N450 component) and/or in a later, response-related stage of processing (as shown by the conflict sustained potential; Conflict-SP). Conflict adaptation effects were also studied by analyzing the effect of the previous trial"s congruence in current interference. To this end, 17 low math-anxious (LMA)and 17 high math-anxious (HMA) individuals were presented with a numerical Stroop task. Groups were extreme in math anxiety but did not differ in trait or state anxiety or in simple math ability. The interference effect of the current trial (incongruent-congruent) and the interference effect preceded by congruence and by incongruity were analyzed both for behavioral measures and for ERPs. A greater interference effect was found for response times in the HMA group than in the LMA one. Regarding ERPs, the LMA group showed a greater N450 component for the interference effect preceded by congruence than when preceded by incongruity, while the HMA group showed greater Conflict-SP amplitude for the interference effect preceded by congruence than when preceded by incongruity. Our study showed that the electrophysiological correlates of numeric interference in HMA individuals comprise the absence of a conflict adaptation effect in the first stage of conflict processing (N450) and an abnormal subsequent up-regulation of cognitive control in order to overcome the conflict (Conflict-SP). More concretely, our study shows that math anxiety is related to a reactive and compensatory recruitment of control resources that is implemented only when previously exposed to a stimuli presenting conflicting information

Supervisió i control de la lectura: anàlisi de procediments, judicis metacognitius i resultats de comprensió en estudiants d'Educació Secundària Obligatòria

Els processos de comprensió lectora són complexes, i requereixen de l’ús autorregulat, conscient i deliberat de la metacognició en les seves dues vessants: supervisió i control. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte és analitzar les relacions entre aquests dos components, i la seva repercussió en la comprensió lectora que finalment s’assoleix. Per tal de tractar aquesta qüestió s’han analitzat els processos de lectura seguits per 60 alumnes d’Educació Secundària Obligatòria. La presència i el tipus de relectura ha estat considerada com a mesura de control (estratègia emprada per millorar la pròpia comprensió), mentre que els judicis metacognitius són considerats com a mesura de supervisió. També es va elaborar una prova de comprensió lectora incloent preguntes que requerissin diferents nivells de processament cognitiu, de més superficial a més profund. Els nostres resultats preliminars mostren una relació entre l’ajust dels judicis metacognitius i la comprensió lectora assolida; els lectors que millor entenen el text tendeixen a ser els que millor supervisen la seva comprensió. La relectura també s’ha mostrat útil per millorar la comprensió, ja que els participants obtenen millors resultats després de rellegir. Per últim, s’ha trobat una relació significativa entre l’ajust dels judicis metacognitius i la relectura. D’una banda, aquests resultats subratllen la importància de la supervisió i el control en la comprensió lectora, i ofereixen evidències per explicar les complexes relacions entre supervisió, control, i resultats de comprensió. A més, els processos de lectura i els objectius amb què hom rellegeix apareixen com a temes rellevants que requereixen ser investigats per comprendre millor la interacció entre els processos de supervisió i control en la comprensió lectora. D’altra banda, els resultats tenen valuoses implicacions educatives, ja que proporcionen evidències de la importància d’ensenyar processos metacognitius des d’un punt de vista estratègic, en contraposició a les “tècniques”, per tal de millorar la comprensió lectora.

Mission control system for dam inspection with an AUV

This paper presents a complete control architecture that has been designed to fulfill predefined missions with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). The control architecture has three levels of control: mission level, task level and vehicle level. The novelty of the work resides in the mission level, which is built with a Petri network that defines the sequence of tasks that are executed depending on the unpredictable situations that may occur. The task control system is composed of a set of active behaviours and a coordinator that selects the most appropriate vehicle action at each moment. The paper focuses on the design of the mission controller and its interaction with the task controller. Simulations, inspired on an industrial underwater inspection of a dam grate, show the effectiveness of the control architecture

Counterexamples to some pointwise estimates of the maximal Cauchy transform in terms of the Cauchy transform

Motivated by the work of Mateu, Orobitg, Pérez and Verdera, who proved inequalities of the form $T_*f\lesssim M(Tf)$ or $T_*f\lesssim M^2(Tf)$ for certain singular integral operators $T$, such as the Hilbert or the Beurling transforms, we study the possibility of establishing this type of control for the Cauchy transform along a Lipschitz graph. We show that this is not possible in general, and we give a partial positive result when the graph is substituted by a Jordan curve.

Social capital and the equilibrium number of entrepreneurs

Social capital is viewed either as a proprietary asset that serves private interests, including those of entrepreneurs, or as a collective asset that supports trust-based transactions saving on transaction costs both in markets and within the boundaries of firms, and benefiting society as a whole. This paper explains the relative specialization between entrepreneurs and market-governed exchanges as a result of the interaction between social capital that lowers transaction costs, and the scale economies of ability in managerial jobs (Lucas 1978). The main hypothesis formulated in the paper is that higher social capital will benefit the hierarchy relatively more than the market as a governance mechanism, and therefore in economies with higher social capital, the equilibrium number of entrepreneurs will be lower and their average span of control larger than in economies with lower social capital. The empirical evidence, with data from the Spanish Autonomous Communities, is consistent with this prediction.

Proving the performance of a new revenue management system

Revenue management (RM) is a complicated business process that can best be described ascontrol of sales (using prices, restrictions, or capacity), usually using software as a tool to aiddecisions. RM software can play a mere informative role, supplying analysts with formatted andsummarized data who use it to make control decisions (setting a price or allocating capacity fora price point), or, play a deeper role, automating the decisions process completely, at the otherextreme. The RM models and algorithms in the academic literature by and large concentrateon the latter, completely automated, level of functionality.A firm considering using a new RM model or RM system needs to evaluate its performance.Academic papers justify the performance of their models using simulations, where customerbooking requests are simulated according to some process and model, and the revenue perfor-mance of the algorithm compared to an alternate set of algorithms. Such simulations, whilean accepted part of the academic literature, and indeed providing research insight, often lackcredibility with management. Even methodologically, they are usually awed, as the simula-tions only test \within-model" performance, and say nothing as to the appropriateness of themodel in the first place. Even simulations that test against alternate models or competition arelimited by their inherent necessity on fixing some model as the universe for their testing. Theseproblems are exacerbated with RM models that attempt to model customer purchase behav-ior or competition, as the right models for competitive actions or customer purchases remainsomewhat of a mystery, or at least with no consensus on their validity.How then to validate a model? Putting it another way, we want to show that a particularmodel or algorithm is the cause of a certain improvement to the RM process compared to theexisting process. We take care to emphasize that we want to prove the said model as the causeof performance, and to compare against a (incumbent) process rather than against an alternatemodel.In this paper we describe a \live" testing experiment that we conducted at Iberia Airlineson a set of flights. A set of competing algorithms control a set of flights during adjacentweeks, and their behavior and results are observed over a relatively long period of time (9months). In parallel, a group of control flights were managed using the traditional mix of manualand algorithmic control (incumbent system). Such \sandbox" testing, while common at manylarge internet search and e-commerce companies is relatively rare in the revenue managementarea. Sandbox testing has an undisputable model of customer behavior but the experimentaldesign and analysis of results is less clear. In this paper we describe the philosophy behind theexperiment, the organizational challenges, the design and setup of the experiment, and outlinethe analysis of the results. This paper is a complement to a (more technical) related paper thatdescribes the econometrics and statistical analysis of the results.

Auditing the management of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks: the need for a tool

Public health activities, especially infectious disease control, depend on effective teamwork. We present the results of a pilot audit questionnaire aimed at assessing the quality of public health services in the management of VPD outbreaks. Audit questionnaire with three main areas indicators (structure, process and results) was developed. Guidelines were set and each indicator was assessed by three auditors. Differences in indicator scores according to median size of outbreaks were determined by ANOVA (significance at p (greater than or equal to) 0.05). Of 154 outbreaks; eighteen indicators had a satisfactory mean score, indicator "updated guidelines" and "timely reporting" had a poor mean score (2.84±106 and 2.44±1.67, respectively). Statistically significant differences were found according to outbreak size, in the indicators "availability of guidelines/protocol updated less than 3 years ago" (p = 0.03) and "days needed for outbreak control" (p = 0.04). Improving availability of updated guidelines, enhancing timely reporting and adequate recording of control procedures taken is needed to allow for management assessment and improvement.

Cellular and molecular evidence for a role of tumor necrosis factor alpha in the ovulatory mechanism of trout

Background: The relevance of immune-endocrine interactions to the regulation of ovarian function in teleosts is virtually unexplored. As part of the innate immune response during infection, a number of cytokines such as tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF alpha) and other immune factors, are produced and act on the reproductive system. However, TNF alpha is also an important physiological player in the ovulatory process in mammals. In the present study, we have examined for the first time the effects of TNF alpha in vitro in preovulatory ovarian follicles of a teleost fish, the brown trout (Salmo trutta). Methods: To determine the in vivo regulation of TNF alpha expression in the ovary, preovulatory brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) were injected intraperitoneally with either saline or bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS). In control and recombinant trout TNF alpha (rtTNF alpha)-treated brown trout granulosa cells, we examined the percentage of apoptosis by flow cytometry analysis and cell viability by propidium iodide (PI) staining. Furthermore, we determined the in vitro effects of rtTNF alpha on follicle contraction and testosterone production in preovulatory brown trout ovarian follicles. In addition, we analyzed the gene expression profiles of control and rtTNF alpha-treated ovarian tissue by microarray and real-time PCR (qPCR) analyses. Results: LPS administration in vivo causes a significant induction of the ovarian expression of TNF alpha. Treatment with rtTNF alpha induces granulosa cell apoptosis, decreases granulosa cell viability and stimulates the expression of genes known to be involved in the normal ovulatory process in trout. In addition, rtTNF alpha causes a significant increase in follicle contraction and testosterone production. Also, using a salmonid-specific microarray platform (SFA2.0 immunochip) we observed that rtTNF alpha induces the expression of genes known to be involved in inflammation, proteolysis and tissue remodeling. Furthermore, the expression of kallikrein, TOP-2, serine protease 23 and ADAM 22, genes that have been postulated to be involved in proteolytic and tissue remodeling processes during ovulation in trout, increases in follicles incubated in the presence of rtTNF alpha. Conclusions In view of these results, we propose that TNF alpha could have an important role in the biomechanics of follicle weakening, ovarian rupture and oocyte expulsion during ovulation in trout, primarily through its stimulation of follicular cell apoptosis and the expression of genes involved in follicle wall proteolysis and contraction.

Local model predictive control experiences with differential driven wheeled mobile robots

This work extends a previously developed research concerning about the use of local model predictive control in differential driven mobile robots. Hence, experimental results are presented as a way to improve the methodology by considering aspects as trajectory accuracy and time performance. In this sense, the cost function and the prediction horizon are important aspects to be considered. The aim of the present work is to test the control method by measuring trajectory tracking accuracy and time performance. Moreover, strategies for the integration with perception system and path planning are briefly introduced. In this sense, monocular image data can be used to plan safety trajectories by using goal attraction potential fields

Mobile robot experimental modeling and control strategies using sensor fusion

This research work deals with the problem of modeling and design of low level speed controller for the mobile robot PRIM. The main objective is to develop an effective educational, and research tool. On one hand, the interests in using the open mobile platform PRIM consist in integrating several highly related subjects to the automatic control theory in an educational context, by embracing the subjects of communications, signal processing, sensor fusion and hardware design, amongst others. On the other hand, the idea is to implement useful navigation strategies such that the robot can be served as a mobile multimedia information point. It is in this context, when navigation strategies are oriented to goal achievement, that a local model predictive control is attained. Hence, such studies are presented as a very interesting control strategy in order to develop the future capabilities of the system. In this context the research developed includes the visual information as a meaningful source that allows detecting the obstacle position coordinates as well as planning the free obstacle trajectory that should be reached by the robot

Reconfigurable Architecture To Estimate The Motion Of An Underwater Vehicle

This work proposes a parallel architecture for a motion estimation algorithm. It is well known that image processing requires a huge amount of computation, mainly at low level processing where the algorithms are dealing with a great numbers of data-pixel. One of the solutions to estimate motions involves detection of the correspondences between two images. Due to its regular processing scheme, parallel implementation of correspondence problem can be an adequate approach to reduce the computation time. This work introduces parallel and real-time implementation of such low-level tasks to be carried out from the moment that the current image is acquired by the camera until the pairs of point-matchings are detected