Optimal feedback control rules sensitive to controlled endogenous risk-aversion

The objective of this paper is to correct and improve the results obtained by Van der Ploeg (1984a, 1984b) and utilized in the theoretical literature related to feedback stochastic optimal control sensitive to constant exogenous risk-aversion (see, Jacobson, 1973, Karp, 1987 and Whittle, 1981, 1989, 1990, among others) or to the classic context of risk-neutral decision-makers (see, Chow, 1973, 1976a, 1976b, 1977, 1978, 1981, 1993). More realistic and attractive, this new approach is placed in the context of a time-varying endogenous risk-aversion which is under the control of the decision-maker. It has strong qualitative implications on the agent's optimal policy during the entire planning horizon.

Dynamic stackelberg game with risk-averse players: optimal risk-sharing under asymmetric information

The objective of this paper is to clarify the interactive nature of the leader-follower relationship when both players are endogenously risk-averse. The analysis is placed in the context of a dynamic closed-loop Stackelberg game with private information. The case of a risk-neutral leader, very often discussed in the literature, is only a borderline possibility in the present study. Each player in the game is characterized by a risk-averse type which is unknown to his opponent. The goal of the leader is to implement an optimal incentive compatible risk-sharing contract. The proposed approach provides a qualitative analysis of adaptive risk behavior profiles for asymmetrically informed players in the context of dynamic strategic interactions modelled as incentive Stackelberg games.

Nash equilibrium strategies in discrete-time finite-horizon dynamic games with risk-and effort-averse players

The objective of this paper is to re-examine the risk-and effort attitude in the context of strategic dynamic interactions stated as a discrete-time finite-horizon Nash game. The analysis is based on the assumption that players are endogenously risk-and effort-averse. Each player is characterized by distinct risk-and effort-aversion types that are unknown to his opponent. The goal of the game is the optimal risk-and effort-sharing between the players. It generally depends on the individual strategies adopted and, implicitly, on the the players' types or characteristics.

Loss risk through fraud in car insurance

Our objective is to analyse fraud as an operational risk for the insurance company. We study the effect of a fraud detection policy on the insurer's results account, quantifying the loss risk from the perspective of claims auditing. From the point of view of operational risk, the study aims to analyse the effect of failing to detect fraudulent claims after investigation. We have chosen VAR as the risk measure with a non-parametric estimation of the loss risk involved in the detection or non-detection of fraudulent claims. The most relevant conclusion is that auditing claims reduces loss risk in the insurance company.

Polyphenol-rich foods in the Mediterranean diet are associated with better cognitive function in elderly subjects at high cardiovascular risk

Brain oxidative processes play a major role in age-related cognitive decline, thus consumption of antioxidant-rich foods might help preserve cognition. Our aim was to assess whether consumption of antioxidant-rich foods in the Mediterranean diet relates to cognitive function in the elderly. In asymptomatic subjects at high cardiovascular risk (n = 447; 52% women; age 5580 y) enrolled in the PREDIMED study, a primary prevention dietary-intervention trial, we assessed food intake and cardiovascular risk profile, determined apolipoprotein E genotype, and used neuropsychological tests to evaluate cognitive function.We also measured urinary polyphenols as an objective biomarker of intake. Associations between energy-adjusted food consumption, urinary polyphenols, and cognitive scores were assessed by multiple linear regression models adjusted for potential confounders. Consumption of some foods was independently related to better cognitive function. The specific associations [regression coefficients (95% confidence intervals)] were: total olive oil with immediate verbal memory [0.755 (0.1511.358)]; virgin olive oil and coffee with delayed verbal memory [0.163 (0.0100.316) and 0.294 (0.0550.534), respectively];walnuts with working memory [1.191 (0.0612.322)]; and wine with Mini-Mental State Examination scores [0.252 (0.0060.496)]. Urinary polyphenols were associated with better scores in immediate verbal memory [1.208 (0.2362.180)]. Increased consumption of antioxidant-rich foods in general and of polyphenols in particular is associated with better cognitive performance in elderly subjects at high cardiovascular risk. The results reinforce the notion that Mediterranean diet components might counteract age-related cognitive decline.

Solvencia en un Reaseguro Finite Risk

One of the characteristics of the finite risk reinsurance is the existence of an found of experience, which is constituted by the premiums charged by the reinsurer, together with his financial incomes, and his objective is to finance the claims to be satisfied to the insurer in the specified period. The objective of this work is to design a model that allows us to determinate the reserve that the found of experience should have in every annual period in order to guarantee its dynamic solvency, taking into the experience of the claims of the reinsurer"s portfolio and of each insurance company.

Evaluación de los factores de riesgo y los tipos de superficie para el desarrollo de las úlceras por presión en el enfermo crítico = Assessment of risk factors and the types of surface for the development of pressure ulcers on critical ill patients

The main objective of this article is to assess the risk factors and the types of surface for the development of pressure ulcers (PU) on critical ill patients in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU)

Risk of hypoglycemia in newborns from mothers with gestacional diabetes

There are not enough previous publications which are focused on mothers withwell-controlled gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) as a risk factor that determines the occurrence of neonatal hypoglycemia. In addition, approaches to blood glucose monitoring have been inconsistent and poorly defined. Our objective is to determine if being a newborn from a mother with well-controlled gestational diabetes (regardless insulin treatment) have a higher risk to develop hypoglycemia than a healthy newborn, using a defined and strict protocol. The project will take place in a regional hospital of Girona. We will recruit from 2014 to 2015 a cohort of 623 infants born in this center without any malformation or any perinatal pathology or complication, selected with a consecutive sampling. We will record sex, ethnicity and gestational age information. We will measure blood glucose levels and anthropometric measurements in newborns always taking into account the presence of well-controlled maternal gestational diabetes or not. Patients will be followed up during 24 hours to determine the incidence of hypoglycemia. We will analyze the contribution between exposure factors that we have studied and the incidence of the outcome using a multivariate analysis

Polyphenol-rich foods in the Mediterranean diet are associated with better cognitive function in elderly subjects at high cardiovascular risk

Brain oxidative processes play a major role in age-related cognitive decline, thus consumption of antioxidant-rich foods might help preserve cognition. Our aim was to assess whether consumption of antioxidant-rich foods in the Mediterranean diet relates to cognitive function in the elderly. In asymptomatic subjects at high cardiovascular risk (n = 447; 52% women; age 55-80 y) enrolled in the PREDIMED study, a primary prevention dietary-intervention trial, we assessed food intake and cardiovascular risk profile, determined apolipoprotein E genotype, and used neuropsychological tests to evaluate cognitive function.We also measured urinary polyphenols as an objective biomarker of intake. Associations between energy-adjusted food consumption, urinary polyphenols, and cognitive scores were assessed by multiple linear regression models adjusted for potential confounders. Consumption of some foods was independently related to better cognitive function. The specific associations [regression coefficients (95% confidence intervals)] were: total olive oil with immediate verbal memory [0.755 (0.151-1.358)]; virgin olive oil and coffee with delayed verbal memory [0.163 (0.010-0.316) and 0.294 (0.055-0.534), respectively];walnuts with working memory [1.191 (0.061-2.322)]; and wine with Mini-Mental State Examination scores [0.252 (0.006-0.496)]. Urinary polyphenols were associated with better scores in immediate verbal memory [1.208 (0.236-2.180)]. Increased consumption of antioxidant-rich foods in general and of polyphenols in particular is associated with better cognitive performance in elderly subjects at high cardiovascular risk. The results reinforce the notion that Mediterranean diet components might counteract age-related cognitive decline.

Risk Prediction Scores for Recurrence and Progression of Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer: An International Validation in Primary Tumours

Abstract Objective: We aimed to determine the validity of two risk scores for patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer in different European settings, in patients with primary tumours. Methods: We included 1,892 patients with primary stage Ta or T1 non-muscle invasive bladder cancer who underwent a transurethral resection in Spain (n = 973), the Netherlands (n = 639), or Denmark (n = 280). We evaluated recurrence-free survival and progression-free survival according to the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and the Spanish Urological Club for Oncological Treatment (CUETO) risk scores for each patient and used the concordance index (c-index) to indicate discriminative ability. Results: The 3 cohorts were comparable according to age and sex, but patients from Denmark had a larger proportion of patients with the high stage and grade at diagnosis (p,0.01). At least one recurrence occurred in 839 (44%) patients and 258 (14%) patients had a progression during a median follow-up of 74 months. Patients from Denmark had the highest 10- year recurrence and progression rates (75% and 24%, respectively), whereas patients from Spain had the lowest rates (34% and 10%, respectively). The EORTC and CUETO risk scores both predicted progression better than recurrence with c-indices ranging from 0.72 to 0.82 while for recurrence, those ranged from 0.55 to 0.61. Conclusion: The EORTC and CUETO risk scores can reasonably predict progression, while prediction of recurrence is more difficult. New prognostic markers are needed to better predict recurrence of tumours in primary non-muscle invasive bladder cancer patients.

A 14-item Mediterranean diet assessment tool and obesity indexes among high-risk subjects: the PREDIMED trial

Objective: Independently of total caloric intake, a better quality of the diet (for example, conformity to the Mediterranean diet) is associated with lower obesity risk. It is unclear whether a brief dietary assessment tool, instead of full-length comprehensive methods, can also capture this association. In addition to reduced costs, a brief tool has the interesting advantage of allowing immediate feedback to participants in interventional studies. Another relevant question is which individual items of such a brief tool are responsible for this association. We examined these associations using a 14-item tool of adherence to the Mediterranean diet as exposure and body mass index, waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) as outcomes. Design: Cross-sectional assessment of all participants in the"PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea" (PREDIMED) trial. Subjects: 7,447 participants (55-80 years, 57% women) free of cardiovascular disease, but with either type 2 diabetes or $3 cardiovascular risk factors. Trained dietitians used both a validated 14-item questionnaire and a full-length validated 137-item food frequency questionnaire to assess dietary habits. Trained nurses measured weight, height and waist circumference. Results: Strong inverse linear associations between the 14-item tool and all adiposity indexes were found. For a two-point increment in the 14-item score, the multivariable-adjusted differences in WHtR were 20.0066 (95% confidence interval,- 0.0088 to 20.0049) for women and-0.0059 (-0.0079 to-0.0038) for men. The multivariable-adjusted odds ratio for a WHtR.0.6 in participants scoring $10 points versus #7 points was 0.68 (0.57 to 0.80) for women and 0.66 (0.54 to 0.80) for men. High consumption of nuts and low consumption of sweetened/carbonated beverages presented the strongest inverse associations with abdominal obesity. Conclusions: A brief 14-item tool was able to capture a strong monotonic inverse association between adherence to a good quality dietary pattern (Mediterranean diet) and obesity indexes in a population of adults at high cardiovascular risk.

Polymorphisms cyclooxygenase-2 -765G>C and interleukin-6 -174G>C are associated with serum inflammation markers in a high cardiovascular risk population and do not modify the response to a Mediterranean diet supplemented with virgin olive oil or nuts

Inflammation is involved in cardiovascular diseases. Some studies have found that the Mediterranean diet (MD) can reduce serum concentrations of inflammation markers. However, none of these studies have analyzed the influence of genetic variability in such a response. Our objective was to study the effect of the -765G.C polymorphism in the cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) gene and the -174G.C polymorphism in the interleukin-6 (IL-6) gene on serum concentrations of IL-6, C-reactive protein, intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1) and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 as well as their influence on the response toa nutritional interventionwithMD.An intervention study ina high cardiovascular riskMediterranean population (314 men and 407 women) was undertaken. Participants were randomly assigned to consume a low-fat control diet or a MD supplementedwith virgin olive oil ornuts.Measureswereobtained at baseline and after a 3-mointervention period.At baseline, the COX-2 -765G.C polymorphismwas associated with lower serum IL-6 (5.85 6 4.82 in GG vs. 4.74 6 4.14 ng/L in C-allele carriers; P ¼ 0.002) and ICAM-1 (265.8 6 114.8 in GG vs. 243.0 6 107.1 mg/L in C-carriers; P ¼ 0.018) concentrations. These differences remained significant aftermultivariate adjustment. The IL-6 -174G.C polymorphism was associatedwith higher (CC vs. G-carriers) serumICAM-1concentrations in bothmenandwomenandwithhigherserumIL-6 concentrations inmen.Following the dietary intervention, no significant gene x diet interactions were found. In conclusion, although COX-2 -765G.C and IL-6 -174G.C polymorphismswere associatedwith inflammation, consuming aMD(either supplemented with virgin olive oil or nuts) reduced the concentration of inflammation markers regardless of these polymorphisms.

Effect of cocoa powder on the modulation of inflammatory biomarkers in patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease

Background: Epidemiologic studies have suggested that flavonoid intake plays a critical role in the prevention of coronary heart disease. Because atherosclerosis is considered a low-grade inflammatory disease, some feeding trials have analyzed the effects of cocoa (an important source of flavonoids) on inflammatory biomarkers, but the results have been controversial. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the effects of chronic cocoa consumption on cellular and serum biomarkers related to atherosclerosis in high-risk patients. Design: Forty-two high-risk volunteers (19 men and 23 women; mean 6 SD age: 69.7 6 11.5 y) were included in a randomized crossover feeding trial. All subjects received 40 g cocoa powder with 500 mL skim milk/d (C+M) or only 500 mL skim milk/d (M) for 4 wk. Before and after each intervention period, cellular and serum inflammatory biomarkers related to atherosclerosis were evaluated. Results: Adherence to the dietary protocol was excellent. No significant changes in the expression of adhesion molecules on T lymphocyte surfaces were found between the C+M and M groups. However, in monocytes, the expression of VLA-4, CD40, and CD36 was significantly lower (P = 0.005, 0.028, and 0.001, respectively) after C+M intake than after M intake. In addition, serum concentrations of the soluble endothelium-derived adhesion molecules P-selectin and intercellular adhesion molecule-1 were significantly lower (both P = 0.007) after C+M intake than after M intake. Conclusions: These results suggest that the intake of cocoa polyphenols may modulate inflammatory mediators in patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease. These antiinflammatory effects may contribute to the overall benefits of cocoa consumption against atherosclerosis. This trial was registered in the Current Controlled Trials at London, International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number, at controlled-trials.com as ISRCTN75176807.

Risk of hypoglycemia in newborns from mothers with gestacional diabetes

There are not enough previous publications which are focused on mothers with well-controlled gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) as a risk factor that determines the occurrence of neonatal hypoglycemia. In addition, approaches to blood glucose monitoring have been inconsistent and poorly defined. Our objective is to determine if being a newborn from a mother with well-controlled gestational diabetes (regardless insulin treatment) have a higher risk to develop hypoglycemia than a healthy newborn, using a defined and strict protocol. The project will take place in a regional hospital of Girona. We will recruit from 2014 to 2015 a cohort of 623 infants born in this center without any malformation or any perinatal pathology or complication, selected with a consecutive sampling. We will record sex, ethnicity and gestational age information. We will measure blood glucose levels and anthropometric measurements in newborns always taking into account the presence of well-controlled maternal gestational diabetes or not. Patients will be followed up during 24 hours to determine the incidence of hypoglycemia. We will analyze the contribution between exposure factors that we have studied and the incidence of the outcome using a multivariate analysis