Els agrocombustibles a Catalunya : proposta d'avaluació d'escenaris de futur

En els darrers temps el debat dels agrocombustibles s’ha caracteritzat per l’aparició d’incerteses científiques i la discussió dels impactes ambientals i socioeconòmics, sovint difícils de mesurar i quantificar, que es podrien derivar de la implementació de la política pública d’impuls d’aquesta nova font energètica. Els sistemes tradicionals d’avaluació experta i les eines de decisió polítiques es veuen limitats per trobar solucions als problemes ambientals complexes com és el dels agrocombustibles, ja que es basen en el coneixement disciplinari i la previsió, sense considerar de forma explícita les incerteses. En l’estudi del debat i del procés d’elaboració de la política pública s’ha percebut una manca d’espais de comunicació i presa de decisions estructurats i integradors. Davant d’aquest context, en aquest treball s’ha dissenyat un procés participatiu d’avaluació de la implementació de la política pública. La proposta elaborada consta d’uns escenaris de futur sobre l’aplicació dels agrocombustibles a Catalunya, que han de ser valorats de forma participativa en grups de discussió. La identificació de les variables determinants i els nous escenaris de futur que resulten del procés, esdevindrien la informació per a reiniciar un nou procés d’avaluació. L’aplicació de nous procediments i noves eines d’anàlisi pot ser útil per reestructurar el problema i fonamentar les decisions polítiques, per tal d’augmentar-ne l’eficàcia,la legitimitat, i assegurar-ne criteris social i ambientalment justos.

Efficient knowledge retrieval to calibrate input variables in forest fire prediction

Forest fires are a serious threat to humans and nature from an ecological, social and economic point of view. Predicting their behaviour by simulation still delivers unreliable results and remains a challenging task. Latest approaches try to calibrate input variables, often tainted with imprecision, using optimisation techniques like Genetic Algorithms. To converge faster towards fitter solutions, the GA is guided with knowledge obtained from historical or synthetical fires. We developed a robust and efficient knowledge storage and retrieval method. Nearest neighbour search is applied to find the fire configuration from knowledge base most similar to the current configuration. Therefore, a distance measure was elaborated and implemented in several ways. Experiments show the performance of the different implementations regarding occupied storage and retrieval time with overly satisfactory results.

Like milk or wine: Does firm performance improve with age?

Our empirical literature review shows that little is known about how firm performance changes with age, presumably because of the paucity of data on firm age. For Spanish manufacturing firms, we analyse the firm performance related to firm age between 1998 and 2006. We find evidence that firms improve with age, because ageing firms are observed to have steadily increasing levels of productivity, higher profits, larger size, lower debt ratios, and higher equity ratios. Furthermore, older firms are better able to convert sales growth into subsequent growth of profits and productivity. On the other hand, we also found evidence that firm performance deteriorates with age. Older firms have lower expected growth rates of sales, profits and productivity, they have lower profitability levels (when other variables such as size are controlled for), and also that they appear to be less capable to convert employment growth into growth of sales, profits and productivity.

Like milk or wine: Does firm performance improve with age?

Our empirical literature review shows that little is known about how firm performance changes with age, presumably because of the paucity of data on firm age. For Spanish manufacturing firms, we analyse the firm performance related to firm age between 1998 and 2006. We find evidence that firms improve with age, because ageing firms are observed to have steadily increasing levels of productivity, higher profits, larger size, lower debt ratios, and higher equity ratios. Furthermore, older firms are better able to convert sales growth into subsequent growth of profits and productivity. On the other hand, we also found evidence that firm performance deteriorates with age. Older firms have lower expected growth rates of sales, profits and productivity, they have lower profitability levels (when other variables such as size are controlled for), and also that they appear to be less capable to convert employment growth into growth of sales, profits and productivity. Keywords: firm age, firm growth, LAD, financial structure, vector autoregression JEL CODES: L25, L20

What should a virtual University Library environment look like?

Over the past year, the Open University of Catalonia library has been designing its new website with this question in mind. Our main concern has been how to integrate the library in the student day to day study routine to not to be only a satellite tool. We present the design of the website that, in a virtual library like ours, it is not only a website but the whole library itself. The central point of the web is my library, a space that associates the library resources with the student's curriculum and their course subjects. There the students can save the resources as favourites, comment or share them. They have also access to all the services the library offers them. The resources are imported from multiple tools such as Millennium, SFX, Metalib and Dspace to the Drupal CMS. Then the resources' metadata can be enriched with other contextual information from other sources, for example the course subjects. And finally they can be exported in standard, open data formats making them available for linked data applications.

What other sciences look like

In order to have references for discussing mathematical menus in political science, Ireview the most common types of mathematical formulae used in physics andchemistry, as well as some mathematical advances in economics. Several issues appearrelevant: variables should be well defined and measurable; the relationships betweenvariables may be non-linear; the direction of causality should be clearly identified andnot assumed on a priori grounds. On these bases, theoretically-driven equations onpolitical matters can be validated by empirical tests and can predict observablephenomena.