Sequencing lifeline repairs after an earthquake: an economic approach

Recoveries after recent earthquakes in the U.S. and Japan have shown that large welfare gains can be achieved by reshaping current emergency plans as incentive-compatible contracts. We apply tools from the mechanisms design literature to show ways to integrate economic incentives into the management of natural disasters and discuss issues related to the application to seismic event recovery. The focus is on restoring lifeline services such as the water, gas, transportation, and electric power networks. We put forward decisional procedures that an uninformed planner could employ to set repair priorities and help to coordinate lifeline firms in the post-earthquake reconstruction.

La repercussió de l'onada de calor de 2003 en la població major de 65 anys de Barcelona i l'àrea metropolitana

Les onades de calor eren un fenomen desconegut per la població fins fa pocs anys, i tot i que avui dia ja son més populars, les seves conseqüències passen molt més desapercebudes que la d’altres catàstrofes naturals. En aquest estudi, a partir de l’episodi que va patir la península durant l’agost de 2003, es pretén aprofundir en els factors que van fer propiciar que la mortalitat entre les persones majors de 65 anys augmentés de manera notable en comparació amb anys anteriors. Els resultats de l’estudi mostren que un dels grups més vulnerables son les persones grans que viuen soles i per tant caldria tenir en compte aquest factor a l’hora de fer plans d’acció, així com també que els pics de màxima mortalitat es corresponen amb dies posteriors als de la pujada de temperatura, ja que aquesta agreuja patologies prèvies de les persones i moren temps després. També seria interessant un consens internacional a l’hora d’establir uns criteris estàndards per tal de tenir així uns registres més fiables que permetin extreure noves mesures per lluitar contra les onades de calor.

Anàlisi de la modelització hidrològica com a eina per la predicció d'inundacions i la gestió del territori

Les inundacions són actualment les catàstrofes naturals més recurrents i les que generen un major nombre de danys i víctimes arreu del món. L'ocupació de les zones inundables a les lleres del riu és la causa principal d’aquests desastres naturals. En aquest article es descriu la realització de models hidrològics com a mecanisme per la predicció d’inundacions i la gestió del territori. S’han estudiat les conques de la Riera de Santa Coloma (Catalunya) i del riu San Francisco (Guatemala) mitjançant els programes HEC-HMS i HEC-RAS, dels quals s’avalua la seva capacitat com eina per a la gestió del territori. S’ha analitzat l’efecte de la urbanització en el risc d’inundació en el cas de la Riera de Santa Coloma en base a la previsió del Plà d’Ordenament Urbanístic Municipal. S’han determinat les zones inundables resultants de episodis de precipitació extrems al Riu San Francisco per als episodis de les tempestes Stan(2005) i Agatha(2010).

Insuring California earthquakes and the role for catastrophe bonds

The 1994 Northridge earthquake sent ripples to insurance conpanieseverywhere. This was one in a series of natural disasters such asHurricane Andrew which together with the problems in Lloyd's of Londonhave insurance companies running for cover. This paper presents a calibration of the U.S. economy in a model with financial markets forinsurance derivatives that suggests the U.S. economy can deal with thedamage of natural catastrophe far better than one might think.

Vulnerabilitat i adaptació al risc d'inundació a la ciutat de Girona: una perspectiva històrica

En aquest article ens proposem estudiar, des d'una perspectiva històrica, un delsaspectes de la problemàtica mediambiental que més afecten les societats humanes materialmenti emotiva: les catàstrofes naturals i, més concretament, les inundacions fluvials.L'hmbit d'estudi escollit és Girona, ciutat on la complexa hidrologia de superfície (quatrerius, el Ter, l'Onyar, el Güell i el Galligans, a més d'altres cursos menors d'aigua,travessen la ciutat) i, sobretot, la vulnerabilitat creixent de la societat gironina al riscd'avingudes com a resultat de la important ocupació de les planes al.luvials, han fet deles inundacions una constant histbrica de la qual tenim multitud d'exemples des queexisteixen documents escrits

Towards a database on societal impact of Mediterranean floods in the framework of the HYMEX project

The NW Mediterranean region experiences every year heavy rainfall and flash floods that occasionally produce catastrophic damages. Less frequent are floods that affect large regions. Although a large number of databases devoted exclusively to floods or considering all kind of natural hazards do exist, usually they only record catastrophic flood events. This paper deals with the new flood database that is being developed within the framework of HYMEX project. Results are focused on four regions representative of the NW sector of Mediterranean Europe: Catalonia, Spain; the Balearic Islands, Spain; Calabria, Italy; and Languedoc-Roussillon, Midi-Pyrenées and PACA, France. The common available 30-yr period starts in 1981 and ends in 2010. The paper shows the database structure and criteria, the comparison with other flood databases, some statistics on spatial and temporal distribution, and an identification of the most important events. The paper also provides a table that includes the date and affected region of all the catastrophic events identified in the regions of study, in order to make this information available for all audiences.

Distribución espacio-temporal de los desprendimientos de rocas en la Montaña de Montserrat

La montaña de Montserrat se encuentra afectada por desprendimientos de rocas. Estos desprendimientos conforman un peligro importante para todas las estructuras expuestas en la montaña. Entre ellas el Monasterio de Montserrat y sus accesos por carretera y ferrocarril. En el presente estudio se analiza la distribución espacial y temporal de los desprendimientos en la montaña a partir de la identificación de indicadores geomorfológicos de desprendimientos antecedentes (como canchales y conos de derrubios, bloques caídos de más de 3 m3 y trayectorias) en fotografías aéreas y ortofotos de diferentes años (1978, 1992, 2009). En cuanto al análisis espacial los resultados muestran que hay ciertos sectores de la montaña con un claro alto nivel de afección, mientras que existen otros con una afección casi nula, y que por lo tanto la distribución de la peligrosidad en la montaña es bastante heterogénea. Por otra parte, el análisis temporal muestra como el número de desprendimientos de rocas ha aumentado en las dos últimas décadas.

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).

Assessing trends in insured losses from floods in Spain 1971-2008

Economic impacts from floods have been increasing over recent decades, a fact often attributed to a changing climate. On the other hand, there is now a significant body of scientific scholarship all pointing towards increasing concentrations and values of assets as the principle cause of the increasing cost of natural disasters. This holds true for a variety of perils and across different jurisdictions. With this in mind, this paper examines the time history of insured losses from floods in Spain between 1971 and 2008. It as- sesses whether any discernible residual signal remains after adjusting the data for the increase in the number and value of insured assets over this period of time. Data on insured losses from floods were sourced from Consorcio de Com- pensacíon de Seguros (CCS). Although a public institution, CCS compensates homeowners for the damage produced by floods, and thus plays a role similar to that of a private insurance company. Insured losses were adjusted using two proxy measures: first, changes in the total amount of annual surcharges (premiums) paid by customers to CCS, and secondly, changes in the total value of dwellings per year. The adjusted data reveals no significant trend over the period 1971-2008 and serves again to confirm that at this juncture, societal in- fluences remain the prime factors driving insured and economic losses from natural disasters.

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).

Simulando catástrofes : recursos para la enseñanza de los riesgos naturales

Los riesgos naturales son abordados por distintas asignaturas de ciencias naturalesa lo largo de la ESO y el bachillerato. Su tratamiento en el aula es una evidencia del interés y el carácter aplicado de muchos aspectos de las ciencias de la tierra. Para facilitar su enfoque didáctico se proponen algunas actividades prácticas

Los Riesgos geológicos: algunas consideraciones didácticas

From the development of concepts related with Natural and Geological Hazards different exercises and activities are proposed. All of them can be used as didactic recourses in order to study such a subject for the most appropriate educative levels