The role of different factors related to social impact of heavy events: considerations about the intensity thresholds in densely populated areas

In the assessment of social impact caused by meteorological events, factors of different natures need to be considered. Not only does hazard itself determine the impact that a severe weather event has on society, but also other features related to vulnerability and exposure. The requests of data related to insurance claims received in meteorological services proved to be a good indicator of the social impact that a weather event causes, according to studies carried out by the Social Impact Research Group, created within the framework of the MEDEX project. Taking these requests as proxy data, diverse aspects connected to the impact of heavy rain events have been studied. The rainfall intensity, in conjunction with the population density, has established itself as one of the key factors in social impact studies. One of the conclusions we obtained is that various thresholds of rainfall should be applied for areas of varying populations. In this study, the role of rainfall intensity has been analysed for a highly populated urban area like Barcelona. A period without significant population changes has been selected for the study to minimise the effects linked to vulnerability and exposure modifications. First, correlations between rainfall recorded in different time intervals and requests were carried out. Afterwards, a method to include the intensity factor in the social impact index was suggested based on return periods given by intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves.

Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

Inter-American Court, Crimes Against Humanity and Peacebuilding in South America

The present work contains a general overview of the sentences of the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACtHR), which have recognised that crimes against humanity are pre-existing in customary law, and do not prescribe, nor can they be subject to amnesty or pardon. Specific attention is paid to the consequent restrictions and opportunities offered by said verdicts to countries such as Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and Peru, which find themselves in postconflict transition processes and where peace has been negotiated with certain groups and state structures that are responsible for carrying out crimes against humanity. In doing so, special attention is paid to the impact of the recognition of the nature of crimes against humanity on the notion of the principle of legality, stricto sensu; on the development and evolution of the doctrine and the practice of international human rights law in the inter-American context; and finally on the aforementioned processes of transitional justice.

Estimation of parametric and nonparametric models for univariate claim severity distributions - an approach using R

This paper presents an analysis of motor vehicle insurance claims relating to vehicle damage and to associated medical expenses. We use univariate severity distributions estimated with parametric and non-parametric methods. The methods are implemented using the statistical package R. Parametric analysis is limited to estimation of normal and lognormal distributions for each of the two claim types. The nonparametric analysis presented involves kernel density estimation. We illustrate the benefits of applying transformations to data prior to employing kernel based methods. We use a log-transformation and an optimal transformation amongst a class of transformations that produces symmetry in the data. The central aim of this paper is to provide educators with material that can be used in the classroom to teach statistical estimation methods, goodness of fit analysis and importantly statistical computing in the context of insurance and risk management. To this end, we have included in the Appendix of this paper all the R code that has been used in the analysis so that readers, both students and educators, can fully explore the techniques described

The Network Company in Catalonia : ICT, Productivity, Competitiveness, Salaries and Performance in Catalonia's Companies. Research report (synthesis document)

Resum en anglès del projecte de recerca L'empresa xarxa a Catalunya. TIC, productivitat, competitivitat, salaris i beneficis a l'empresa catalana té com a objectiu principal constatar que la consolidació d'un nou model estratègic, organitzatiu i d'activitat empresarial, vinculat amb la inversió i l'ús de les TIC (o empresa xarxa), modifica substancialment els patrons de comportament dels resultats empresarials, en especial la productivitat, la competitivitat, les retribucions dels treballadors i el benefici. La contrastació empírica de les hipòtesis de treball l'hem feta per mitjà de les dades d'una enquesta a una mostra representativa de 2.038 empreses catalanes. Amb la perspectiva de l'impacte de la inversió i l'ús de les TIC no s'aprecia una relació directa entre els processos d'innovació digital i els resultats de l'activitat de l'empresa catalana. En aquest sentit, hem hagut de segmentar el teixit productiu català per a buscar les organitzacions en què el procés de coinnovació tecnològica digital i organitzativa és més present i en què la intensitat de l'ús del coneixement és un recurs molt freqüent per a poder copsar impactes rellevants en els principals resultats empresarials. Això és així perquè l'economia catalana, avui, presenta una estructura productiva dual.

La freqüentació dels parcs naturals a Catalunya

This article offers a series of reflections and proposals concerning the visitors usage of Catalonia's Natural Parks. The basis of these affirmations is the analysis of the parks which exist at the present in Catalonia, as well as the study of the current legislation in Catalonia and in Spain. Although the article deals exclusively with protected natural areas, it must be remembered that people's recreational activities affect the entire natural environment. It is therefore necessary to extend planning to the impact of such activities in all natural areas. The author proposes as a possible solution a hierarchy of leisure zones in natural spaces, divided into three different levels: Municipal Parks, Regional Parks as well as Natural and National Parks

Desarrollo y validación de ensayos rápidos para la detección de aeroalérgenos ocupacionales/ambientales: soja i proteinas séricas de paloma

Tanto el asma ocupacional como la neumonitis por hipersensibilidad, como es el pulmón del cuidador de aves, son patologías respiratorias que se pueden prevenir o disminuir su aparición mediante la evitación de la fuente antigénica. Para poder actuar de forma preventiva es de utilidad el disponer de ensayos rápidos que sean capaces de estimar la presencia de alérgeno de forma inmediata. En el marco de este proyecto de dos años de duración tenemos por objeto el desarrollar y estandarizar dos métodos rápidos, inmunocromatográficos, para la determinación de alérgenos de soja y de proteínas séricas de paloma. Alérgenos que han sido seleccionados por su importancia en el medio como agentes causales de asma y neumonitis por hipersensibilidad, respectivamente. También tenemos por objeto determinar la carga de alérgeno de soja en la fracción de partículas menores de 10 micrómetros (PM10) en los alrededores del puerto de Barcelona y comprarla con los niveles en los filtros de partículas suspendidas totales (TSP). Como pasos previos al desarrollo de los ensayos rápidos se han producido anticuerpos específicos frente al extracto de cáscara de soja de bajo peso molecular y frente al suero de paloma, se ha desarrollado un ELISA tipo sándwich para cada alérgeno y parte de los anticuerpos se ha conjugado con oro coloidal. El ensayo inmunocromatográfico para la soja presenta un límite de detección de 6.25ng/ml y ha sido validado mediante el análisis de 119 muestras ambientales, presentando una elevada especificidad y sensibilidad. El ensayo inmunocromatográfico para la determinación de antígenos séricos de paloma requiere ser validado. Mediante un métodos de ELISA de inhibición se han determinado los niveles de alérgeno de soja en filtros PM10 y TSP. A pesar de la buena correlación entre los niveles de alérgeno en ambos filtros, se observó una amplia variación en la proporción PM10/TSP entre días.

Biodiversity and global change in Mediterranean benthic communities: perspectives over large spatial and long temporal scales

Many terrestrial and marine systems are experiencing accelerating decline due to the effects of global change. This situation has raised concern about the consequences of biodiversity losses for ecosystem function, ecosystem service provision, and human well-being. Coastal marine habitats are a main focus of attention because they harbour a high biological diversity, are among the most productive systems of the world and present high anthropogenic interaction levels. The accelerating degradation of many terrestrial and marine systems highlights the urgent need to evaluate the consequence of biodiversity loss. Because marine biodiversity is a dynamic entity and this study was interested global change impacts, this study focused on benthic biodiversity trends over large spatial and long temporal scales. The main aim of this project was to investigate the current extent of biodiversity of the high diverse benthic coralligenous community in the Mediterranean Sea, detect its changes, and predict its future changes over broad spatial and long temporal scales. These marine communities are characterized by structural species with low growth rates and long life spans; therefore they are considered particularly sensitive to disturbances. For this purpose, this project analyzed permanent photographic plots over time at four locations in the NW Mediterranean Sea. The spatial scale of this study provided information on the level of species similarity between these locations, thus offering a solid background on the amount of large scale variability in coralligenous communities; whereas the temporal scale was fundamental to determine the natural variability in order to discriminate between changes observed due to natural factors and those related to the impact of disturbances (e.g. mass mortality events related to positive thermal temperatures, extreme catastrophic events). This study directly addressed the challenging task of analyzing quantitative biodiversity data of these high diverse marine benthic communities. Overall, the scientific knowledge gained with this research project will improve our understanding in the function of marine ecosystems and their trajectories related to global change.

An economic theory of church strictness

This paper makes several contributions to the growing literatureon the economics of religion. First, we explicitly introduce spatial-location models into the economics of religion. Second, we offer a newexplanation for the observed tendency of state (monopoly) churches tolocate toward the "low-tension" end of the "strictness continuum" (ina one-dimensional product space): This result is obtained through theconjunction of "benevolent preferences" (denominations care about theaggregate utility of members) and asymmetric costs of going to a moreor less strict church than one prefers.We also derive implications regarding the relationship between religiousstrictness and membership. The driving forces of our analysis, religiousmarket interactions and asymmetric costs of membership, high-light newexplanations for some well-established stylized facts. The analysis opensthe way to new empirical tests, aimed at confronting the implications ofour model against more traditional explanations.

Effects of employment protection and product market regulations on the Italian labor market

Labor market regulations have often being blamed for high and persistentunemployment in Europe, but evidence on their impact remains mixed. Morerecently, attention has turned to the impact of product market regulationson employment growth. This paper analyzes how labor and product marketregulations interact to affect turnover and employment. We present a matchingmodel which illustrates how barriers to entry in the product market mitigatethe impact of labor market deregulation. We, then, use the Italian SocialSecurity employer-employee panel to study the interaction between barriersto entry and dismissal costs. We exploit the fact that costs for unjustdismissals in Italy increased for firms below 15 employees relative to biggerfirms after 1990. We find that the increase in dismissal costs after 1990decreased accessions and separations in small relative to big firms,especially for women. Moreover, consistent with our model, we find evidencethat the increase in dismissal costs had smaller effects on turnover for womenin sectors faced with strict product market regulations.

Lipid reserves of red mullet (Mullus barbatus) during pre-spawning in the northwestern Mediterranean

Lipid reserves are a particularly important attribute of fishes because they have a large influence on growth, reproduction and survival. This study analyses the lipid content of red mullet (Mullus barbatus) pre-spawners in three different areas of the northwestern Mediterranean in relation to trawling activities and river runoff. The muscle lipid was considered as an indicator of the somatic condition of individuals whilst the gonad lipid was used as a proxy of the energy invested in reproduction. The results show that fish with the highest muscle lipid levels inhabited the area where fishing impact was lowest. Since the abundance and biomass of polychaetes, which represent the main food source for red mullet, were found to be lower in trawled zones than in unfished ones, we suggest that differences in the muscle lipid levels between areas might be attributed to variation in prey abundance in relation to fishing impact. However, no impact of river runoff on lipid reserves of red mullet was observed. The results also show that muscle and gonad lipid reserves are not related to each other during pre-spawning

A press database on natural risks and its application in the study of floods in Northeastern Spain

The aim of this work is to introduce a systematic press database on natural hazards and climate change in Catalonia (NE of Spain) and to analyze its potential application to social-impact studies. For this reason, a review of the concepts of risk, hazard, vulnerability and social perception is also included. This database has been built for the period 1982¿2007 and contains all the news related with those issues published by the oldest still-active newspaper in Catalonia. Some parameters are registered for each article and for each event, including criteria that enable us to determine the importance accorded to it by the newspaper, and a compilation of information about it. This ACCESS data base allows each article to be classified on the basis of the seven defined topics and key words, as well as summary information about the format and structuring of the new itself, the social impact of the event and data about the magnitude or intensity of the event. The coverage given to this type of news has been assessed because of its influence on construction of the social perception of natural risk and climate change, and as a potential source of information about them. The treatment accorded by the press to different risks is also considered. More than 14 000 press articles have been classified. Results show that the largest number of news items for the period 1982¿2007 relates to forest fires and droughts, followed by floods and heavy rainfalls, although floods are the major risk in the region of study. Two flood events recorded in 2002 have been analyzed in order to show an example of the role of the press information as indicator of risk perception.

Impacts on the deep-sea ecosystem by a severe coastal storm

Major coastal storms, associated with strong winds, high waves and intensified currents, and occasionally with heavy rains and flash floods, are mostly known because of the serious damage they can cause along the shoreline and the threats they pose to navigation. However, there is a profound lack of knowledge on the deep-sea impacts of severe coastal storms. Concurrent measurements of key parameters along the coast and in the deep-sea are extremely rare. Here we present a unique data set showing how one of the most extreme coastal storms of the last decades lashing the Western Mediterranean Sea rapidly impacted the deep-sea ecosystem. The storm peaked the 26th of December 2008 leading to the remobilization of a shallow-water reservoir of marine organic carbon associated with fine particles and resulting in its redistribution across the deep basin. The storm also initiated the movement of large amounts of coarse shelf sediment, which abraded and buried benthic communities. Our findings demonstrate, first, that severe coastal storms are highly efficient in transporting organic carbon from shallow water to deep water, thus contributing to its sequestration and, second, that natural, intermittent atmospheric drivers sensitive to global climate change have the potential to tremendously impact the largest and least known ecosystem on Earth, the deep-sea ecosystem.

Charged-particle interaction with liquids: Ripplon excitations

We calculate the ripplon field contribution to the self-energy of an electron exterior to a liquid for planar and spherical geometries. We compare the full dielectric calculation of the electron-liquid interaction with the simpler alternative method consisting of integrating the electron-atom static-induced-dipolar potential through the whole liquid volume. We obtain good agreement between both methods for a nonpolar liquid such as 4He but differences up to 40% for a polar liquid such as water. We study the conditions under which the ripplon contribution to the self-energy is a perturbation. For an electron moving parallel to a planar liquid surface, we calculate the ripplon contribution to its stopping power. For this dynamical case, we conclude that the alternative method is a good approximation even for polar liquids.

Backflow-induced asymmetric collapse of disclination lines in liquid crystals

We present experiments where opposed pairs of planar parallel disclination lines of topological strength s=±1 move due to their mutual attraction. Our measurements show that their motion is clearly asymmetric, with +1 defects moving up to twice as fast as -1 ones. This is a clear indication of backflow, given the intrinsic isotropic elasticity of our system. A phenomenological model is able to account for the experimental observations by renormalizing the orientational diffusivity estimated from the velocity of each defect.