Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case

Bodily injury claims have the greatest impact on the claim costs of motor insurance companies. The disability severity of motor claims is assessed in numerous European countries by means of score systems. In this paper a zero inflated generalized Poisson regression model is implemented to estimate the disability severity score of victims in-volved in motor accidents on Spanish roads. We show that the injury severity estimates may be automatically converted into financial terms by insurers at any point of the claim handling process. As such, the methodology described may be used by motor insurers operating in the Spanish market to monitor the size of bodily injury claims. By using insurance data, various applications are presented in which the score estimate of disability severity is of value to insurers, either for computing the claim compensation or for claim reserve purposes.

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Influence of the claimant’s behavioural features on motor compensation outcomes

The decision to settle a motor insurance claim by either negotiation or trial is analysed. This decision may depend on how risk and confrontation adverse or pessimistic the claimant is. The extent to which these behavioural features of the claimant might influence the final compensation amount are examined. An empirical analysis, fitting a switching regression model to a Spanish database, is conducted in order to analyze whether the choice of the conflict resolution procedure is endogenous to the compensation outcomes. The results show that compensations awarded by courts are always higher, although 95% of cases are settled by negotiation. We show that this is because claimants are adverse to risk and confrontation, and are pessimistic about their chances at trial. By contrast, insurers are risk - confrontation neutral and more objective in relation to the expected trial compensation. During the negotiation insurers accept to pay the subjective compensation values of claimants, since these values are lower than their estimates of compensations at trial.

Determinants of the decision to appeal against motor bodily injury settlements awarded by Spanish trial courts

Automobile bodily injury disputes represent one of the main causes of litigation faced by Spanish Courts. In this paper a multinomial model is implemented to analyse which factors determine the decision to appeal against the verdicts of trial courts. Use of a dataset of motor insurance claims revealed differences between the determinants of a claimant’s decision to appeal and those of insurers. Among other results it is shown that discrepancies regarding the permanent disability sustained affect the insurer’s decision to appeal. In contrast, the claimant pays more attention to differences in the stated temporary disability. Conclusions are drawn regarding which factors could reduce the percentage of appealed cases.

Individual prediction of automobile bodily injury claims liabilities

[spa] La mayoría de siniestros con daños corporales se liquidan mediante negociación, llegando a juicio menos del 5% de los casos. Una estrategia de negociación bien definida es, por tanto, fundamental para las compañías aseguradoras. En este artículo asumimos que la compensación monetaria concedida en juicio es la máxima cuantía que debería ser ofrecida por el asegurador en el proceso de negociación. Usando una base de datos real, implementamos un modelo log-lineal para estimar la máxima oferta de negociación. Perturbaciones no-esféricas son detectadas. Correlación ocurre cuando más de una siniestro se liquida en la misma sentencia judicial. Heterocedasticidad por grupos se debe a la influencia de la valoración del forense en la indemnización final.

Individual prediction of automobile bodily injury claims liabilities

[spa] La mayoría de siniestros con daños corporales se liquidan mediante negociación, llegando a juicio menos del 5% de los casos. Una estrategia de negociación bien definida es, por tanto, fundamental para las compañías aseguradoras. En este artículo asumimos que la compensación monetaria concedida en juicio es la máxima cuantía que debería ser ofrecida por el asegurador en el proceso de negociación. Usando una base de datos real, implementamos un modelo log-lineal para estimar la máxima oferta de negociación. Perturbaciones no-esféricas son detectadas. Correlación ocurre cuando más de una siniestro se liquida en la misma sentencia judicial. Heterocedasticidad por grupos se debe a la influencia de la valoración del forense en la indemnización final.

Estimation of parametric and nonparametric models for univariate claim severity distributions - an approach using R

This paper presents an analysis of motor vehicle insurance claims relating to vehicle damage and to associated medical expenses. We use univariate severity distributions estimated with parametric and non-parametric methods. The methods are implemented using the statistical package R. Parametric analysis is limited to estimation of normal and lognormal distributions for each of the two claim types. The nonparametric analysis presented involves kernel density estimation. We illustrate the benefits of applying transformations to data prior to employing kernel based methods. We use a log-transformation and an optimal transformation amongst a class of transformations that produces symmetry in the data. The central aim of this paper is to provide educators with material that can be used in the classroom to teach statistical estimation methods, goodness of fit analysis and importantly statistical computing in the context of insurance and risk management. To this end, we have included in the Appendix of this paper all the R code that has been used in the analysis so that readers, both students and educators, can fully explore the techniques described

Factors affecting hospital admission and recovery stay duration of in-patient motor victims in Spain

Hospital expenses are a major cost driver of healthcare systems in Europe, with motor injuries being the leading mechanism of hospitalizations. This paper investigates the injury characteristics which explain the hospitalization of victims of traffic accidents that took place in Spain. Using a motor insurance database with 16.081 observations a generalized Tobit regression model is applied to analyse the factors that influence both the likelihood of being admitted to hospital after a motor collision and the length of hospital stay in the event of admission. The consistency of Tobit estimates relies on the normality of perturbation terms. Here a semi-parametric regression model was fitted to test the consistency of estimates, concluding that a normal distribution of errors cannot be rejected. Among other results, it was found that older men with fractures and injuries located in the head and lower torso are more likely to be hospitalized after the collision, and that they also have a longer expected length of hospital recovery stay.

Discrete distributions when modeling the disability severity score of motor victims

Many European states apply score systems to evaluate the disability severity of non-fatal motor victims under the law of third-party liability. The score is a non-negative integer with an upper bound at 100 that increases with severity. It may be automatically converted into financial terms and thus also reflects the compensation cost for disability. In this paper, discrete regression models are applied to analyze the factors that influence the disability severity score of victims. Standard and zero-altered regression models are compared from two perspectives: an interpretation of the data generating process and the level of statistical fit. The results have implications for traffic safety policy decisions aimed at reducing accident severity. An application using data from Spain is provided.

Mortalidad atribuible al alcohol en Cataluña: 1994

Fundamento: El objetivo de este estudio es evaluar la contribución del consumo de alcohol a la mortalidad en Cataluña durante 1994, así como su contribución a las muertes prematuras. Métodos: En este estudio se han utilizado los datos de las causas de muerte en Cataluña durante 1994 del Servei d’Informació i Estudis de la Direcció General de Recursos Sanitaris del Departament de Sanitat I Seguretat Social de Catalunya. Las fracciones atribuibles al alcohol están basadas en las utilizadas en el estudio de la mortalidad relacionada con el alcohol en Estados Unidos en 1987. Resultados: El 5,3% de las muertes en Cataluña durante 1994 estuvieron relacionadas con el consumo de alcohol. Esta mortalidad fue del 6,5% entre los hombres y del 3,9% entre las mujeres. La categoría diagnóstica que más contribuyó al número de muertes fue la de las neoplasias malignas (29,3%). El estudio de las muertes prematuras muestra que los accidentes no intencionales son la causa más importante (52,3%). En esta categoría diagnóstica los accidentes con vehículos a motor son los principales responsables de los años potenciales de vida perdidos (APVP). La media de APVP por cada muerte atribuible al alcohol hasta la edad de 65 fue de 7,5. Conclusiones: Este estudio muestra la magnitud que tiene el alcohol como problema de salud pública en Cataluña.

Lipid rafts act as specialised domains for tetanus toxin binding and internalisation in neurons

Tetanus (TeNT) is a zinc protease that blocks neurotransmission by cleaving the synaptic protein vesicle-associated membrane protein/synaptobrevin. Although its intracellular catalytic activity is well established, the mechanism by which this neurotoxin interacts with the neuronal surface is not known. In this study, we characterize p15s, the first plasma membrane TeNT binding proteins and we show that they are glycosylphosphatidylinositol-anchored glycoproteins in nerve growth factor (NGF)-differentiated PC12 cells, spinal cord cells, and purified motor neurons. We identify p15 as neuronal Thy-1 in NGF-differentiated PC12 cells. Fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy measurements confirm the close association of the binding domain of TeNT and Thy-1 at the plasma membrane. We find that TeNT is recruited to detergent-insoluble lipid microdomains on the surface of neuronal cells. Finally, we show that cholesterol depletion affects a raft subpool and blocks the internalization and intracellular activity of the toxin. Our results indicate that TeNT interacts with target cells by binding to lipid rafts and that cholesterol is required for TeNT internalization and/or trafficking in neurons.

Forecasting the maximum compensation offer in the automobile BI claims negotiation process

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Group wise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.

'Situaciones problema' y desarrollo de la competencia motriz en educación física escolar: cuestiones didácticas = Problem situations and developing motor competence in Physical Education at school: didactic questions

From the areas of motor learning and the teaching of Physical Education we promote coherent methodological orientationswith the present curricular guide that are focused in such a way so that the student is able to act independently. In thissense we may consider the problem situations as a good example for methodological proposals. So as to determine its useand adequateness for Physical Education it is conveniente to analyse the characteristics of the motor tasks that areproposed as well as the features of the teaching intervention in such a way as to ease the adquisition and development ofthe motor competence of the students