A Multi-state model for the analysis of functional decline and mortality of frail elderly patients

L’objectiu d’aquest estudi, que correspon a un projecte de recerca sobre la pèrdua funcional i la mortalitat de persones grans fràgils, és construir un procés de supervivència predictiu que tingui en compte l’evolució funcional i nutricional dels pacients al llarg del temps. En aquest estudi ens enfrontem a l’anàlisi de dades de supervivència i mesures repetides però els mètodes estadístics habituals per al tractament conjunt d’aquest tipus de dades no són apropiats en aquest cas. Com a alternativa utilitzem els models de supervivència multi-estats per avaluar l’associació entre mortalitat i recuperació, o no, dels nivells funcionals i nutricionals considerats normals. Després d’estimar el model i d’identificar els factors pronòstics de mortalitat és possible obtenir un procés predictiu que permet fer prediccions de la supervivència dels pacients en funció de la seva història concreta fins a un determinat moment. Això permet realitzar un pronòstic més precís de cada grup de pacients, la qual cosa pot ser molt útil per als professionals sanitaris a l’hora de prendre decisions clíniques.

Relation between temperature and mortality in thirteen Spanish cities

In this study we examined the shape of the association between temperature and mortality in 13 Spanish cities representing a wide range of climatic and socio demographic conditions. The temperature value linked with minimum mortality (MMT) and the slopes before and after the turning point (MMT) were calculated. Most cities showed a V-shaped temperature-mortality relationship. MMTs were generally higher in cities with warmer climates. Cold and heat effects also depended on climate: effects were greater in hotter cities but lesser in cities with higher variability. The effect of heat was greater than the effect of cold. The effect of cold and MMT was, in general, greater for cardio-respiratory mortality than for total mortality, while the effect of heat was, in general, greater among the elderly

The burden of hospital malnutrition in Spain: methods and development of the PREDyCES® study

It is well known that hospital malnutrition is a highly prevalent condition associated to increase morbidity and mortality as well as related healthcare costs. Although previous studies have already measured the prevalence and/or costs of hospital nutrition in our country, their local focus (at regional or even hospital level) make that the true prevalence and economic impact of hospital malnutrition for the National Health System remain unknown in Spain. The PREDyCES® (Prevalence of hospital malnutrition and associated costs in Spain) study was aimed to assess the prevalence of hospital malnutrition in Spain and to estimate related costs. Some aspects made this study unique: a) It was the first study in a representative sample of hospitals of Spain; b) different measures to assess hospital malnutrition (NRS2002, MNA as well as anthropometric and biochemical markers) where used both at admission and discharge and, c) the economic consequences of malnutrition where estimated using the perspective of the Spanish National Health System.

Pneumococcal penumonia presenting with septic shock: host-ant pathogen-related factors and outcomes

BACKGROUND: Host- and pathogen-related factors associated with septic shock in pneumococcal pneumonia are not well defined. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for septic shock and to ascertain patient outcomes. Serotypes, genotypes and antibiotic resistance of isolated strains were also analysed. METHODS: Observational analysis of a prospective cohort of non-severely immunosuppressed hospitalised adults with pneumococcal pneumonia. Septic shock was defined as a systolic blood pressure of <90 mm Hg and peripheral hypoperfusion with the need for vasopressors for >4 h after fluid replacement. RESULTS: 1041 patients with pneumococcal pneumonia diagnosed by Gram stain and culture of appropriate samples and/or urine antigen test were documented, of whom 114 (10.9%) had septic shock at admission. After adjustment, independent risk factors for shock were current tobacco smoking (OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.02 to 4.34; p = 0.044), chronic corticosteroid treatment (OR, 4.45; 95% CI, 1.75 to 11.32; p = 0.002) and serotype 3 (OR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.12 to 4.475; p = 0.022). No significant differences were found in genotypes and rates of antibiotic resistance. Compared with the remaining patients, patients with septic shock required mechanical ventilation more frequently (37% vs 4%; p<0.001) and had longer length of stay (11 vs 8 days; p<0.001). The early (10% vs 1%; p<0.001) and overall case fatality rates (25% vs 5%; p<0.001) were higher in patients with shock. CONCLUSIONS: Septic shock is a frequent complication of pneumococcal pneumonia and causes high morbidity and mortality. Current tobacco smoking, chronic corticosteroid treatment and infection caused by serotype 3 are independent risk factors for this complication.

Inflammatory and coagulation biomarkers and mortality in patients with HIV infection.

Background In the Strategies for Management of Anti-Retroviral Therapy trial, all-cause mortality was higher for participants randomized to intermittent, CD4-guided antiretroviral treatment (ART) (drug conservation [DC]) than continuous ART (viral suppression [VS]). We hypothesized that increased HIV-RNA levels following ART interruption induced activation of tissue factor pathways, thrombosis, and fibrinolysis. Methods and Findings Stored samples were used to measure six biomarkers: high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), amyloid A, amyloid P, D-dimer, and prothrombin fragment 1þ2. Two studies were conducted: (1) a nested case-control study for studying biomarker associations with mortality, and (2) a study to compare DC and VS participants for biomarker changes. For (1), markers were determined at study entry and before death (latest level) for 85 deaths and for two controls (n¼170) matched on country, age, sex, and date of randomization. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated with logistic regression. For each biomarker, each of the three upper quartiles was compared to the lowest quartile. For (2), the biomarkers were assessed for 249 DC and 250 VS participants at study entry and 1 mo following randomization. Higher levels of hsCRP, IL-6, and D-dimer at study entry were significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. Unadjusted ORs (highest versus lowest quartile) were 2.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-4.1; p¼0.05), 8.3 (95% CI, 3.3-20.8; p , 0.0001), and 12.4 (95% CI, 4.2-37.0; p , 0.0001), respectively. Associations were significant after adjustment, when the DC and VS groups were analyzed separately, and when latest levels were assessed. IL-6 and D-dimer increased at 1 mo by 30% and 16% in the DC group and by 0% and 5% in the VS group (p , 0.0001 for treatment difference for both biomarkers); increases in the DC group were related to HIV-RNA levels at 1 mo (p , 0.0001). In an expanded case-control analysis (four controls per case), the OR (DC/VS) for mortality was reduced from 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1-3.1; p¼0.02) to 1.5 (95% CI, 0.8-2.8) and 1.4 (95% CI, 0.8-2.5) after adjustment for latest levels of IL-6 and D-dimer, respectively. Conclusions IL-6 and D-dimer were strongly related to all-cause mortality. Interrupting ART may further increase the risk of death by raising IL-6 and D-dimer levels. Therapies that reduce the inflammatory response to HIV and decrease IL-6 and D-dimer levels may warrant investigation.

Incidence, prevalence and clinical significance of abnormal hematological indices in compensated cirrhosis.

Background & Aims: Patients with cirrhosis develop abnormal hematologic indices (HI) from multiple factors, including hypersplenism. We aimed to analyze the sequence of events and determine whether abnormal HI has prog-nostic significance. Methods: We analyzed a database of 213 subjects with compensated cirrhosis without esopha-geal varices. Subjects were followed for approximately 9 years until the development of varices or variceal bleeding or completion of the study; 84 subjects developed varices. Abnormal HI was defined as anemia at baseline (hemoglo-bin,<13.5 g/dL for men and 11.5 g/dL for women), leuko-penia (white blood cell counts,<4000/mm 3 ), or thrombo-cytopenia (platelet counts, < 150,000/mm 3 ). The primary end points were death or transplant surgery. Results: Most subjects had thrombocytopenia at baseline. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that leukopenia occurred by 30 months (95% confidence interval, 18.5-53.6), and anemia occurred by 39.6 months (95% confidence interval, 24.1-49.9). Baseline thrombocytopenia (P .0191) and leukope-nia (P.0383) were predictors of death or transplant, after adjusting for baseline hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), and Child-Pugh scores. After a median of 5 years,a significant difference in death or transplant, mortality,and clinical decompensation was observed in patients who had leukopenia combined with thrombocytopenia at base- line compared with patients with normal HI (P < .0001). HVPG correlated with hemoglobin and white blood cell count (hemoglobin, r 0.35, P < .0001; white blood cell count, r 0.31, P < .0001). Conclusions: Thrombocy-topenia is the most common and first abnormal HI to occurin patients with cirrhosis, followed by leukopenia and anemia. A combination of leukopenia and thrombocytopenia at baselin predicted increased morbidity and mortality.

Non-invasive diagnostic and prognostic evaluation of liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension.

Cirrhosis is the final stage of most of chronic liver diseases, and is almost invariably complicated by portal hypertension, which is the most important cause of morbidity and mortality in these patients. This review will focus on the non-invasive methods currently used in clinical practice for diagnosing liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension. The first-line techniques include physical examination, laboratory parameters, transient elastography and Doppler-US. More sophisticated imaging methods which are less commonly employed are CT scan and MRI, and new technologies which are currently under evaluation are MR elastography and acoustic radiation force imaging (ARFI). Even if none of them can replace the invasive measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient and the endoscopic screening of gastroesophageal varices, they notably facilitate the clinical management of patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension, and provide valuable prognostic information.

Wine, beer, alcohol and polyphenols on cardiovascular disease and cancer

Abstract: Since ancient times, people have attributed a variety of health benefits to moderate consumption of fermented beverages such as wine and beer, often without any scientific basis. There is evidence that excessive or binge alcohol consumption is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, as well as with work related and traffic accidents. On the contrary, at the moment, several epidemiological studies have suggested that moderate consumption of alcohol reduces overall mortality, mainly from coronary diseases. However, there are discrepancies regarding the specific effects of different types of beverages (wine, beer and spirits) on the cardiovascular system and cancer, and also whether the possible protective effects of alcoholic beverages are due to their alcoholic content (ethanol) or to their non-alcoholic components (mainly polyphenols). Epidemiological and clinical studies have pointed out that regular and moderate wine consumption (one to two glasses a day) is associated with decreased incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), hypertension, diabetes, and certain types of cancer, including colon, basal cell, ovarian, and prostate carcinoma. Moderate beer consumption has also been associated with these effects, but to a lesser degree, probably because of beer"s lower phenolic content. These health benefits have mainly been attributed to an increase in antioxidant capacity, changes in lipid profiles, and the anti-inflammatory effects produced by these alcoholic beverages. This review summarizes the main protective effects on the cardiovascular system and cancer resulting from moderate wine and beer intake due mainly to their common components, alcohol and polyphenols.

HPV & head and neck cancer: a descriptive update

The incidence of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) has been gradually increasing over the last three decades. Recent data have now attributed a viral aetiology to a subset of head and neck cancers. Several studies indicate that oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is likely to be sexually acquired. The dominance of HPV 16 in HPV+ HNSCC is even greater than that seen in cervical carcinoma of total worldwide cases. Strong evidence suggests that HPV+ status is an important prognostic factor associated with a favourable outcome in head and neck cancers. Approximately 30 to 40% of HNSCC patients with present with early stage I/II disease. These patients are treated with curative intent using single modality treatments either radiation or surgery alone. A non-operative approach is favored for patients in which surgery followed by either radiation alone or radiochemotherapy may lead to severe functional impairment. Cetuximab, a humanized mouse anti-EGFR IgG1 monoclonal antibody, improved locoregional control and overall survival in combination with radiotherapy in locally advanced tumours but at the cost of some increased cardiac morbidity and mortality. Finally, the improved prognosis and treatment responses to chemotherapy and radiotherapy by HPV+ tumours may suggest that HPV status detection is required to better plan and individualize patient treatment regimes.

Polyphenol intake and mortality risk: a re-analysis of the PREDIMED trial

Background: Polyphenols may lower the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and other chronic diseases due to their antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties, as well as their beneficial effects on blood pressure, lipids and insulin resistance. However, no previous epidemiological studies have evaluated the relationship between the intake of total polyphenols intake and polyphenol subclasses with overall mortality. Our aim was to evaluate whether polyphenol intake is associated with all-cause mortality in subjects at high cardiovascular risk. Methods: We used data from the PREDIMED study, a 7,447-participant, parallel-group, randomized, multicenter, controlled five-year feeding trial aimed at assessing the effects of the Mediterranean Diet in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Polyphenol intake was calculated by matching food consumption data from repeated food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) with the Phenol-Explorer database on the polyphenol content of each reported food. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) between polyphenol intake and mortality were estimated using time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Over an average of 4.8 years of follow-up, we observed 327 deaths. After multivariate adjustment, we found a 37% relative reduction in all-cause mortality comparing the highest versus the lowest quintiles of total polyphenol intake (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.63; 95% CI 0.41 to 0.97; P for trend = 0.12). Among the polyphenol subclasses, stilbenes and lignans were significantly associated with reduced all-cause mortality (HR =0.48; 95% CI 0.25 to 0.91; P for trend = 0.04 and HR = 0.60; 95% CI 0.37 to 0.97; P for trend = 0.03, respectively), with no significant associations apparent in the rest (flavonoids or phenolic acids). Conclusions: Among high-risk subjects, those who reported a high polyphenol intake, especially of stilbenes and lignans, showed a reduced risk of overall mortality compared to those with lower intakes. These results may be useful to determine optimal polyphenol intake or specific food sources of polyphenols that may reduce the risk of all-cause mortality.

Wine, alcohol, polyphenols and cardiovascular disease

Abstract. Excessive alcohol consumption is associated with increased morbidity and mortality as well as with labour and traffic accidents. However, current evidence suggests beneficial effects of moderate drinking on cardiovascular events including coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, peripheral arterial disease and congestive heart failure. The underlying mechanisms to explain these protective effects against coronary heart disease include an increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and an increase in insulin sensitivity, and a decrease in platelet aggregation and circulating concentrations of fibrinogen. However, there are discrepancies regarding the specific effects of different types of beverages on the cardiovascular system, and also whether the possible protective effects of alcoholic beverages are due to their alcohol component (ethanol) or non-alcoholic products containing, mainly polyphenols. Recent randomised clinical trials have shown that wine, a polyphenol-rich alcoholic beverage, provides higher antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects than some spirits such as gin, a polyphenol-free alcoholic beverage. In addition, dealcoholized red wine decreases blood pressure through a nitric oxide mediated mechanism, suggesting a protective effect of polyphenols on vascular function. Other studies performed in women have observed that daily doses of 1520 g of alcohol as red wine are sufficient to elicit protective effects similar to those observed in men who consumed higher doses of wine. In conclusion, moderate consumption of wine exerts a protective effect on biomarkers related to the progression and development of atherosclerosis due to its alcoholic (ethanol) and non-alcoholic (polyphenols) content. Women are more sensitive to the beneficial effects of wine.

Case-Crossover Analysis of Air Pollution Health Effects: A Systematic Review of Methodology and Application

Case-crossover is one of the most used designs for analyzing the health-related effects of air pollution. Nevertheless, no one has reviewed its application and methodology in this context. Objective: We conducted a systematic review of case-crossover (CCO) designs used to study the relationship between air pollution and morbidity and mortality, from the standpoint of methodology and application.Data sources and extraction: A search was made of the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases.Reports were classified as methodologic or applied. From the latter, the following information was extracted: author, study location, year, type of population (general or patients), dependent variable(s), independent variable(s), type of CCO design, and whether effect modification was analyzed for variables at the individual level. Data synthesis: The review covered 105 reports that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Of these, 24 addressed methodological aspects, and the remainder involved the design’s application. In the methodological reports, the designs that yielded the best results in simulation were symmetric bidirectional CCO and time-stratified CCO. Furthermore, we observed an increase across time in the use of certain CCO designs, mainly symmetric bidirectional and time-stratified CCO. The dependent variables most frequently analyzed were those relating to hospital morbidity; the pollutants most often studied were those linked to particulate matter. Among the CCO-application reports, 13.6% studied effect modification for variables at the individual level.Conclusions: The use of CCO designs has undergone considerable growth; the most widely used designs were those that yielded better results in simulation studies: symmetric bidirectional and time-stratified CCO. However, the advantages of CCO as a method of analysis of variables at the individual level are put to little use

Clinical application of differential time to positivity of blood cultures as a diagnostic method for catheter-related bloodstream infection.

La sospita de bacterièmia relacionada a catèter (BRC) necessita la retirada d’aquest, confirmant-se a posteriori només en un 15-25%. La diferencia en el temps de positivització d´ hemocultius (DTP) ha demostrat ser un mètode fiable per el diagnòstic de BRC evitant la retirada del catèter. Amb la intenció de comprovar la utilitat clínica de la DTP, l’hem comparada amb un mètode diagnòstic estàndard. Hem inclòs 133 pacients ingressats a una unitat de cures intensives portadors de catèters venosos centrals. 56 pacients s’han aleatoritzats. No hem trobat diferències significatives en quant a morbi-mortalitat en els 2 grups havent evitat 70% de retirada innecessària de catèters en el grup de DTP.