Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

Occurrence and bioaccumulation study of PCDD and PCDF from mineral feed additives

Occurrence of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) was evaluated in sepiolite as a widely employed binder and anti-caking agent for animal feed. Also, naturally contaminated kaolinitic clay was used for comparative purposes. Since sepiolite shows remarkable adsorption properties, particular interest was paid to the extraction steps as they become critical for the final determination of these pollutants in such matrixes. Furthermore, classical Soxhlet extraction using different extracting strategies as well as acid treatment were carried out with simultaneous liquid-liquid extraction. Results obtained depended on the extraction procedure applied. Acid treatment or Soxhlet extraction using a mixture of toluene:ethanol as solvent allowed to reach the minimum requirements of recovery rates. However, Soxhlet extraction using a mixture cyclohexane:toluene as extracting solvent did not allow to comply with minimum specifications for recovery. Significant differences were obtained in TEQ units when acid treatment was applied in comparison to Soxhlet extraction. This fact can be explained because the use of drastic acid conditions allows removing strongly adsorbed analytes which can be uniquely extracted after a total destruction of the crystalline structure of sepiolite. On the contrary, Soxhlet extraction was not able to destroy the structure of sepiolite and as a consequence the PCDDs/Fs were strongly adsorbed in the internal structure of the mineral. From biological point of view the availability of these toxicants constitutes a critical aspect playing an important role in the final decision choosing particular analytical procedures. Then, acid conditions in the digestive tract should be taken into account. In this scenario, a bioaccumulation study was conducted to evaluate the transference of PCDDs/PCDFs from the sepiolite into the animal tissues when fed with feed containing sepiolite. To this end, chickens were used as a model to examine the bioavailability of PCDDs/PCDFs. Four groups of chickens were exposed through their diet to a control feed, feed with 3% w/w sepiolite as additive, feed contaminated with PCDDs/PCDFs at concentration around 2.8 pg WHO-TEQ/g and feed with 2% of a contaminated kaolinitic clay (460 pg TEQ/g mineral). Livers of the four studied groups were analyzed throughout the exposure period. Results of this trial showed that the performance of broilers was not affected by the presence of dioxins at levels tested, and chickens did not show any abnormal behaviour. Dioxins intentionally added to the diet were absorbed and accumulated in the liver in a significant manner, whereas the PCDDs/Fs from sepiolite were not available for chickens since livers from broilers fed 3% sepiolite presented similar WHO-TEQ values than those from broilers fed control diet.

Effect of magnesium sulphate and L-tryptophan and genotype on the feed intake, behaviour and meat quality of pigs

Sixty-nine entire male pigs with different halothane genotype (homozygous halothane positive – nn –, n=36; and homozygous halothane negative – NN-, n=33) were fed with a supplementation of magnesium sulphate (Mg) and/or L-tryptophan (Trp) in the diet for 5 days before slaughter. Animals were housed individually and were submitted to stressful ante mortem conditions (mixed in the lorry according to treatments and transported 1 hour on rough roads). Individual feed intake was recorded during the 5-d treatment. At the abattoir, pig behaviour was assessed in the raceway to the stunning system and during the stunning period by exposure to CO2. Muscle pH, colour, water holding capacity, texture and cathepsin activities were determined to assess meat quality. The number of pigs with an individual feed intake lower than 2 kg/d was significantly different among diets (P&0.05; Control: 8.7 %; Mg&Trp: 43.5 %; Trp: 17.4 %) and they were considered to have inadequate supplement intake. During the ante mortem period, 15.2 % of pigs included in the experiment died, and this percentage decreased to 8.7 % in those pigs with a feed intake & 2kg/day, all of them from the stress-sensitive pigs (nn). In general, no differences were observed in the behaviour of pigs along the corridor leading to the stunning system and inside the CO2 stunning system. During the stunning procedure, Trp diet showed shorter periods of muscular excitation than control and Mg&Trp diets. The combination of a stressful ante mortem treatment and Mg&Trp supplementation led to carcasses with high incidence of severe skin lesions. Different meat quality results were found when considering all pigs or considering only those with adequate supplement intake. In this later case, Trp increased pH45 (6.15) vs Control diet (5.96) in the Longissimus thoracis (LT) muscle (P&0.05) and pH at 24h (Trp: 5.59 vs C: 5.47) led to a higher incidence of dark, firm and exudative (DFD) traits in SM muscle (P&0.05). Genotype affected negatively all the meat quality traits. Seventy-five percent of LT and 60.0 % of the SM muscles from nn pigs were classified as pale, soft and exudative (PSE), while none of the NN pigs showed these traits (P&0.0001). No significant differences were found between genotypes on the incidence of DFD meat. Due to the negative effects observed in the Mg&Trp group in feed intake and carcass quality, the utilization of a mixture of magnesium sulphate and tryptophan is not recommended.

Measures of fit in multiple correspondence analysis of crisp and fuzzy coded data

When continuous data are coded to categorical variables, two types of coding are possible: crisp coding in the form of indicator, or dummy, variables with values either 0 or 1; or fuzzy coding where each observation is transformed to a set of "degrees of membership" between 0 and 1, using co-called membership functions. It is well known that the correspondence analysis of crisp coded data, namely multiple correspondence analysis, yields principal inertias (eigenvalues) that considerably underestimate the quality of the solution in a low-dimensional space. Since the crisp data only code the categories to which each individual case belongs, an alternative measure of fit is simply to count how well these categories are predicted by the solution. Another approach is to consider multiple correspondence analysis equivalently as the analysis of the Burt matrix (i.e., the matrix of all two-way cross-tabulations of the categorical variables), and then perform a joint correspondence analysis to fit just the off-diagonal tables of the Burt matrix - the measure of fit is then computed as the quality of explaining these tables only. The correspondence analysis of fuzzy coded data, called "fuzzy multiple correspondence analysis", suffers from the same problem, albeit attenuated. Again, one can count how many correct predictions are made of the categories which have highest degree of membership. But here one can also defuzzify the results of the analysis to obtain estimated values of the original data, and then calculate a measure of fit in the familiar percentage form, thanks to the resultant orthogonal decomposition of variance. Furthermore, if one thinks of fuzzy multiple correspondence analysis as explaining the two-way associations between variables, a fuzzy Burt matrix can be computed and the same strategy as in the crisp case can be applied to analyse the off-diagonal part of this matrix. In this paper these alternative measures of fit are defined and applied to a data set of continuous meteorological variables, which are coded crisply and fuzzily into three categories. Measuring the fit is further discussed when the data set consists of a mixture of discrete and continuous variables.

The role of role uncertainty in modified dictator games

We compare behavior in modified dictator games with and without role uncertainty. Subjectschoose between a selfish action, a costly surplus creating action (altruistic behavior) and acostly surplus destroying action (spiteful behavior). While costly surplus creating actions are themost frequent under role uncertainty (64%), selfish actions become the most frequent withoutrole uncertainty (69%). Also, the frequency of surplus destroying choices is negligible with roleuncertainty (1%) but not so without it (11%). A classification of subjects into four differenttypes of interdependent preferences (Selfish, Social Welfare maximizing, Inequity Averse andCompetitive) shows that the use of role uncertainty overestimates the prevalence of SocialWelfare maximizing preferences in the subject population (from 74% with role uncertainty to21% without it) and underestimates Selfish and Inequity Averse preferences. An additionaltreatment, in which subjects undertake an understanding test before participating in theexperiment with role uncertainty, shows that the vast majority of subjects (93%) correctlyunderstand the payoff mechanism with role uncertainty, but yet surplus creating actions weremost frequent. Our results warn against the use of role uncertainty in experiments that aim tomeasure the prevalence of interdependent preferences.

Atomic structure of the nanocrystalline Si particles appearing in nanostructured Si thin films produced in low-temperature radiofrequency plasmas

Nanostructured Si thin films, also referred as polymorphous, were grown by plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition. The term "polymorphous" is used to define silicon material that consists of a two-phase mixture of amorphous and ordered Si. The plasma conditions were set to obtain Si thin films from the simultaneous deposition of radical and ordered nanoparticles. Here, a careful analysis by electron transmission microscopy and electron diffraction is reported with the aim to clarify the specific atomic structure of the nanocrystalline particles embedded in the films. Whatever the plasma conditions, the electron diffraction images always revealed the existence of a well-defined crystalline structure different from the diamondlike structure of Si. The formation of nanocrystallinelike films at low temperature is discussed. A Si face-cubic-centered structure is demonstrated here in nanocrystalline particles produced in low-pressure silane plasma at room temperature.

Distribution of the transposable elements bilbo and gypsy in original and colonizing populations of Drosophila subobscura

Background: Transposable elements (TEs) constitute a substantial amount of all eukaryotic genomes. They induce an important proportion of deleterious mutations by insertion into genes or gene regulatory regions. However, their mutational capabilities are not always adverse but can contribute to the genetic diversity and evolution of organisms. Knowledge of their distribution and activity in the genomes of populations under different environmental and demographic regimes, is important to understand their role in species evolution. In this work we study the chromosomaldistribution of two TEs, gypsy and bilbo, in original and colonizing populations of Drosophilasubobscura to reveal the putative effect of colonization on their insertion profile.Results: Chromosomal frequency distribution of two TEs in one original and three colonizingpopulations of D. subobscura, is different. Whereas the original population shows a low insertionfrequency in most TE sites, colonizing populations have a mixture of high (frequency ¿ 10%) andlow insertion sites for both TEs. Most highly occupied sites are coincident among colonizingpopulations and some of them are correlated to chromosomal arrangements. Comparisons of TEcopy number between the X chromosome and autosomes show that gypsy occupancy seems to becontrolled by negative selection, but bilbo one does not. Conclusion: These results are in accordance that TEs in Drosophila subobscura colonizing populations are submitted to a founder effect followed by genetic drift as a consequence of colonization. This would explain the high insertion frequencies of bilbo and gypsy in coincident sites of colonizing populations. High occupancy sites would represent insertion events prior to colonization. Sites of low frequency would be insertions that occurred after colonization and/orcopies from the original population whose frequency is decreasing in colonizing populations. Thiswork is a pioneer attempt to explain the chromosomal distribution of TEs in a colonizing specieswith high inversion polymorphism to reveal the putative effect of arrangements in TE insertionprofiles. In general no associations between arrangements and TE have been found, except in a fewcases where the association is very strong. Alternatively, founder drift effects, seem to play aleading role in TE genome distribution in colonizing populations.

Convenient synthesis of C75, an inhibitor of FAS and CPT1

C75 is a synthetic racemic α-methylene-γ-butyrolactone exhibiting anti-tumoral properties in vitro and in vivo as well as inducing hypophagia and weight loss in rodents. These interesting properties are thought to be a consequence of the inhibition of the key enzymes FAS and CPT1 involved in lipid metabolism. The need for larger amounts of this compound for biological evaluation prompted us to develop a convenient and reliable route to multigram quantities of C75 from easily available ethyl penta-3,4-dienoate 6. A recently described protocol for the addition of 6 to a mixture of dicyclohexylborane and nonanal followed by acidic treatment of the crude afforded lactone 8, as a mixture of cis and trans isomers, in good yield. The DBU-catalyzed isomerization of the methyl esters 9 arising from 8 gave a 10:1 trans/cis mixture from which the trans isomer was isolated and easily transformed into C75. The temporary transformation of C75 into a phenylseleno ether derivative makes its purification, manipulation and storage easier.

A study of the effects of PVAC on works of art on paper and wood: pH and colour change

This paper presents the preliminary findings of pH and colour measurements carried out on artworks on paperand on wood that had been treated with a poly(vinyl acetate) (PVAC) based adhesive in the 1980s. In both cases, areas treated with PVAC proved to be less acidic than untreated areas. Contrary to expectations, the conservation treatments have not, as yet, increased acidity levels in the objects under study. Colour measurements of the works on paper showed that those that had been backed with a cotton fabric using a mixture of methylcellulose and PVAC were less yellow than those from the same print run that had not been backed. This finding suggests that the backing somehow prevented the natural degradation of the support. In view of these preliminary results, further research is clearly needed. This study forms part of a broader ongoing project to assess the role of PVAC in the conservation of a range of cultural assets.

A study of the effects of PVAC on works of art on paper and wood: pH and colour change

This paper presents the preliminary findings of pH and colour measurements carried out on artworks on paperand on wood that had been treated with a poly(vinyl acetate) (PVAC) based adhesive in the 1980s. In both cases, areas treated with PVAC proved to be less acidic than untreated areas. Contrary to expectations, the conservation treatments have not, as yet, increased acidity levels in the objects under study. Colour measurements of the works on paper showed that those that had been backed with a cotton fabric using a mixture of methylcellulose and PVAC were less yellow than those from the same print run that had not been backed. This finding suggests that the backing somehow prevented the natural degradation of the support. In view of these preliminary results, further research is clearly needed. This study forms part of a broader ongoing project to assess the role of PVAC in the conservation of a range of cultural assets.

Weakly linked binary mixtures of F = 1 87Rb Bose-Einstein condensates

We present a study of binary mixtures of Bose-Einstein condensates confined in a double-well potential within the framework of the mean field Gross-Pitaevskii (GP) equation. We re-examine both the single component and the binary mixture cases for such a potential, and we investigate what are the situations in which a simpler two-mode approach leads to an accurate description of their dynamics. We also estimate the validity of the most usual dimensionality reductions used to solve the GP equations. To this end, we compare both the semi-analytical two-mode approaches and the numerical simulations of the one-dimensional (1D) reductions with the full 3D numerical solutions of the GP equation. Our analysis provides a guide to clarify the validity of several simplified models that describe mean-field nonlinear dynamics, using an experimentally feasible binary mixture of an F = 1 spinor condensate with two of its Zeeman manifolds populated, m = ±1.

Weakly linked binary mixtures of F = 1 87Rb Bose-Einstein condensates

We present a study of binary mixtures of Bose-Einstein condensates confined in a double-well potential within the framework of the mean field Gross-Pitaevskii (GP) equation. We re-examine both the single component and the binary mixture cases for such a potential, and we investigate what are the situations in which a simpler two-mode approach leads to an accurate description of their dynamics. We also estimate the validity of the most usual dimensionality reductions used to solve the GP equations. To this end, we compare both the semi-analytical two-mode approaches and the numerical simulations of the one-dimensional (1D) reductions with the full 3D numerical solutions of the GP equation. Our analysis provides a guide to clarify the validity of several simplified models that describe mean-field nonlinear dynamics, using an experimentally feasible binary mixture of an F = 1 spinor condensate with two of its Zeeman manifolds populated, m = ±1.

Convenient synthesis of C75, an inhibitor of FAS and CPT1

C75 is a synthetic racemic α-methylene-γ-butyrolactone exhibiting anti-tumoral properties in vitro and in vivo as well as inducing hypophagia and weight loss in rodents. These interesting properties are thought to be a consequence of the inhibition of the key enzymes FAS and CPT1 involved in lipid metabolism. The need for larger amounts of this compound for biological evaluation prompted us to develop a convenient and reliable route to multigram quantities of C75 from easily available ethyl penta-3,4-dienoate 6. A recently described protocol for the addition of 6 to a mixture of dicyclohexylborane and nonanal followed by acidic treatment of the crude afforded lactone 8, as a mixture of cis and trans isomers, in good yield. The DBU-catalyzed isomerization of the methyl esters 9 arising from 8 gave a 10:1 trans/cis mixture from which the trans isomer was isolated and easily transformed into C75. The temporary transformation of C75 into a phenylseleno ether derivative makes its purification, manipulation and storage easier.

A study of the effects of PVAC on works of art on paper and wood: pH and colour change

This paper presents the preliminary findings of pH and colour measurements carried out on artworks on paperand on wood that had been treated with a poly(vinyl acetate) (PVAC) based adhesive in the 1980s. In both cases, areas treated with PVAC proved to be less acidic than untreated areas. Contrary to expectations, the conservation treatments have not, as yet, increased acidity levels in the objects under study. Colour measurements of the works on paper showed that those that had been backed with a cotton fabric using a mixture of methylcellulose and PVAC were less yellow than those from the same print run that had not been backed. This finding suggests that the backing somehow prevented the natural degradation of the support. In view of these preliminary results, further research is clearly needed. This study forms part of a broader ongoing project to assess the role of PVAC in the conservation of a range of cultural assets.

A study of the effects of PVAC on works of art on paper and wood: pH and colour change

This paper presents the preliminary findings of pH and colour measurements carried out on artworks on paperand on wood that had been treated with a poly(vinyl acetate) (PVAC) based adhesive in the 1980s. In both cases, areas treated with PVAC proved to be less acidic than untreated areas. Contrary to expectations, the conservation treatments have not, as yet, increased acidity levels in the objects under study. Colour measurements of the works on paper showed that those that had been backed with a cotton fabric using a mixture of methylcellulose and PVAC were less yellow than those from the same print run that had not been backed. This finding suggests that the backing somehow prevented the natural degradation of the support. In view of these preliminary results, further research is clearly needed. This study forms part of a broader ongoing project to assess the role of PVAC in the conservation of a range of cultural assets.