Macroeconomic shocks and the business cycle: evidence from a structural factor model

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and inflation. (ii) Policy matters, Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks have sizeable effects on output and prices, with little evidence of crowding out; both monetary and fiscal authorities implement important systematic countercyclical policies reacting to demand shocks. (iii) Negative demand shocks have a large long-run positive effect on productivity, consistently with the Schumpeterian "cleansing" view of recessions.

Determinants of Decentralization within the Firm: Some Empirical Evidence from Spanish Small and Medium- Sized Enterprise

This paper examines empirically the determinants of decentralization of decision- making in the firm for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that tend to be highly centralized. By decentralization of decisions we mean the delegation of decision rights from the owner or manager to the plant supervisor or even to floor workers. Our findings show that the allocation of authority to basic workers or a team of workers depends on firm characteristics such as firm size, the use of internal networks or the number of workplaces, and workers characteristics, in particular, the composition of the laborforce in terms of education and seniority and whether or not workers receive pay incentives. External factors such as the intensity of competition and the firm s export intensity are also important determinants of the allocation of authority.

Credit Constraints, Firms' Precautionary Investment, and the Business Cycle

This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of firms' precautionary investment behavior in response to the anticipation of future financing constraints. Firms increase their demand for liquid and safe investments in order to alleviate future borrowing constraints and decrease the probability of having to forego future profitable investment opportunities. This results in an increase in the share of short-term projects that produces a temporary increase in output, at the expense of lower long-run investment and future output. I show in a calibrated model that this behavior is at the source of a novel and powerful channel of shock transmission of productivity shocks that produces short-run dampening and long-run propagation. Furthermore, it can account for the observed business cycle patterns of the aggregate and firm-level composition of investment.

Targeting fertility and female participation through the income tax

We evaluate the effect of a 2003 reform in the Spanish income tax on fertility and the employment of mothers with small children. The reform introduced a tax credit for working mothers with children under the age of three, while also increasing child deductions for all households with children. Theoretically, given the interplay of these two components, the expected effect of the reform is ambiguous on both outcomes. We find that the combined reforms significantly increased both fertility (by almost five percent) and the employment rate of mothers with children under three (by two percent). These effects were more pronounced among less-educated women. In addition, to disentangle the impact of the two reform components, we use an earlier reform that increased child deductions in 1999. We find that the child deductions affect mothers employment negatively, which implies that the 2003 tax credit would have increased employment even more (up to five percent) in the absence of the change in child deductions.

Disability, capacity for work and the business cycle: An international perspective

An important policy issue in recent years concerns the number of people claimingdisability benefits for reasons of incapacity for work. We distinguish between workdisability , which may have its roots in economic and social circumstances, and healthdisability which arises from clear diagnosed medical conditions. Although there is a linkbetween work and health disability, economic conditions, and in particular the businesscycle and variations in the risk of unemployment over time and across localities, mayplay an important part in explaining both the stock of disability benefit claimants andinflows to and outflow from that stock. We employ a variety of cross?country andcountry?specific household panel data sets, as well as administrative data, to testwhether disability benefit claims rise when unemployment is higher, and also toinvestigate the impact of unemployment rates on flows on and off the benefit rolls. Wefind strong evidence that local variations in unemployment have an importantexplanatory role for disability benefit receipt, with higher total enrolments, loweroutflows from rolls and, often, higher inflows into disability rolls in regions and periodsof above?average unemployment. Although general subjective measures of selfreporteddisability and longstanding illness are also positively associated withunemployment rates, inclusion of self?reported health measures does not eliminate thestatistical relationship between unemployment rates and disability benefit receipt;indeed including general measures of health often strengthens that underlyingrelationship. Intriguingly, we also find some evidence from the United Kingdom and theUnited States that the prevalence of self?reported objective specific indicators ofdisability are often pro?cyclical that is, the incidence of specific forms of disability arepro?cyclical whereas claims for disability benefits given specific health conditions arecounter?cyclical. Overall, the analysis suggests that, for a range of countries and datasets, levels of claims for disability benefits are not simply related to changes in theincidence of health disability in the population and are strongly influenced by prevailingeconomic conditions. We discuss the policy implications of these various findings.

Skill-biased technological change and the business cycle

Over the past two decades, technological progress in the United States hasbeen biased towards skilled labor. What does this imply for business cycles?We construct a quarterly skill premium from the CPS and use it to identifyskill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run restrictions. Hours fallin response to skill-biased technology shocks, indicating that at least part of thetechnology-induced fall in total hours is due to a compositional shift in labordemand. Skill-biased technology shocks have no effect on the relative price ofinvestment, suggesting that capital and skill are not complementary in aggregateproduction.

Endogenous labor market participation and the business cycle

Existing models of equilibrium unemployment with endogenous labor market participation are complex, generate procyclical unemployment rates and cannot match unemployment variability relative to GDP. We embed endogenous participation in a simple, tractable job market matching model, show analytically how variations in the participation rate are driven by the cross-sectional density of home productivity near the participation threshold, andhow this density translates into an extensive-margin labor supply elasticity. A calibration of the model to macro data not only matches employment and participation variabilities but also generates strongly countercyclical unemployment rates. With some wage rigidity the model also matches unemployment variations well. Furthermore, the labor supply elasticity implied by our calibration is consistent with microeconometric evidence for the US.

Credit constraints, firms' precautionary investment and the business cycle

This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of firms' investment composition choices in the presence of credit constraints. Following a negative andpersistent aggregate productivity shock, firms shift into short-term investments because they produce more pledgeable output and because they help alleviate futureborrowing constraints. This produces a short-run dampening of the effects of theshock, at the expense of lower long-term investment and future output, relativeto an economy with no credit market imperfections. The effects are exacerbatedby a steepening of the term structure of interest rates that further encourages ashift towards short-term investments in the short-run. Small temporary shocks tothe severity of financing frictions generate large and long-lasting effects on outputthrough their impact on the composition of investment. A positive financial shockproduces much stronger effects than an identical negative shock, while the responsesto positive and negative shocks to aggregate productivity are roughly symmetric.Finally, the paper introduces a novel explanation for the countercyclicality of financing constraints of firms.

Technology, business models and network structure in the airline industry

Network airlines have been increasingly focusing their operations on hub airports through the exploitation of connecting traffic, allowing them to take advantage of economies of traffic density, which are unequivocal in the airline industry. Less attention has been devoted to airlines? decisions on point-to-point thin routes, which could be served using different aircraft technologies and different business models. This paper examines, both theoretically and empirically, the impact on airlines ?networks of the two major innovations in the airline industry in the last two decades: the regional jet technology and the low-cost business model. We show that, under certain circumstances, direct services on point-to-point thin routes can be viable and thus airlines may be interested in deviating passengers out of the hub.

A cognitive attempt to understanding female entrepreneurial potential: the role of social norms and culture

This article analyzes the different perceptions of both male and female potential entrepreneurs from three European regions differing in their respective level of economic development and entrepreneurial culture. We use an extended cognitive model of entrepreneurial intentions based on the theory of planned behaviour, the theory of normative social behaviour and social capital literature. Results show females have lower self-efficacy and entrepreneurial attraction than males, thus leading to lower entrepreneurial intention. Differences between the three subsamples are small when males are studied. However, female entrepreneurial intentions and perceptions are more affected by the cultural context.

Technology, business models and network structure in the airline industry

Network airlines have been increasingly focusing their operations on hub airports through the exploitation of connecting traffic, allowing them to take advantage of economies of traffic density, which are unequivocal in the airline industry. Less attention has been devoted to airlines' decisions on point-to-point thin routes, which could be served using different aircraft technologies and different business models. This paper examines, both theoretically and empirically, the impact on airlines' networks of the two major innovations in the airline industry in the last two decades: the regional jet technology and the low-cost business model. We show that, under certain circumstances, direct services on point-to-point thin routes can be viable and thus airlines may be interested in deviating passengers out of the hub. Keywords: regional jet technology; low-cost business model; point-to-point network; hub-and-spoke network JEL Classi…fication Numbers: L13; L2; L93

Male vs Female Lupus. A comparison of ethnicity, clinical features, serology and outcome over a 30 year period

Un estudi observacional de pacients amb LES, atesos al University College de London Hospital entre 1976 i 2005, es va dur a terme per revisar les diferències entre homes i dones amb lupus pel que fa a les característiques clíniques, serologia i resultats. 439 dones i 45 homes van ser identificats. L'edat mitjana al diagnòstic va ser de 29,3 anys (12,6), sense diferències significatives entre homes i dones. El sexe femení es va associar significativament amb la presència d'úlceres orals i Ig M ACA. No hi va haver diferències significatives en la comparació de les altres variables. Durant aquest període de seguiment de trenta anys, relativament poques diferències han sorgit al comparar les freqüències de les característiques clíniques i serològiques en homes y dones amb lupus.

Endogeneous matching in university-industry collaboration: Theory and empirical evidence from the UK

We develop a two-sided matching model to analyze collaboration between heterogeneousacademics and firms. We predict a positive assortative matching in terms of both scientificability and affinity for type of research, but negative assortative in terms of ability on one sideand affinity in the other. In addition, the most able and most applied academics and the mostable and most basic firms shall collaborate rather than stay independent. Our predictionsreceive strong support from the analysis of the teams of academics and firms that proposeresearch projects to the UK's Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

What works best for getting the unemployed back to work: employment services or small-business assistance programs? evidence from Romania

Recent empirical evidence has found that employment services and small-business assistance programmes are often successful at getting the unemployed back to work. Â One important concern of policy makers is to decide which of these two programmes is more effective and for whom. Â Using unusually rich (for transition economies) survey data and matching methods, I evaluate the relative effectiveness of these two programmes in Romania. Â While I find that employment services (ES) are, on average, more successful than a small-business assistance programme (SBA), estimation of heterogeneity effects reveals that, compared to non-participation, ES are effective for workers with little access to informal search channels, and SBA works for less-qualified workers and those living in rural areas. Â When comparing ES to SBA, I find that ES tend to be more efficient than SBA for workers without a high-school degree, and that the opposite holds for the more educated workers.

Vigilance behavior of Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica): Effect of sex and position in the herd

The Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica) is a mountain-dwelling ungulate with an extensive presence in open areas. Optimal group size results from the trade off between advantages (a reduction in the risk of predation) and disadvantages (competition between members of the herd) of group living. In addition, advantages and disadvantages of group living may vary depending on the position of each individual within the herd. Our objective was to study the effect of central vs. peripheral position in the herd on feeding and vigilance behavior in male and female Pyrenean chamois and to ascertain if a group size effect existed. We used focal animal sampling and recorded social interactions when a focal animal was involved. With males, vigilance rate was higher in the central part of the group than at the periphery, probably due to a higher density of animals in the central part of the herd and a higher probability of being disturbed by conspecifics. With females, vigilance rate did not differ according to position in the herd. Females spent more time feeding than males, and males showed a higher frequency of the vigilance behavior than females. We did not observe a clear relationship between group size and vigilance behavior. The differences in vigilance behavior might be due to social interactions.