Meteotek08: sonda meteorològica

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit cientí­fic del Jovent l'any 2009. El projecte Meteotek08, s'inicia durant el mes de febrer del curs 07/08 i es deu a tres fets: la passió per l'electrònica i la informàtica, per la meteorologia i per l'espai. Així va sorgir la idea de la possibilitat de realitzar algun projecte que relacionés aquestes idees: una sonda meteorològica, capaç d'assolir altituds de més de 30.000m, fer un registre de les condicions atmosfèriques i, fins i tot, captar fotografies. Era una idea complexa de dur a terme, ja que es partia del res, excepte de l'experiència d'algun dels integrants en el camp de l'electrònica i la informàtica. Durant els primers mesos es van començar a crear els primers prototips i a aplicar les primeres idees, fins que malauradament el crèdit es va acabar el juny. Tot i això, el treball va continuar durant l'estiu, durant el qual es va deixar el projecte gairebé enllestit. Diversos problemes amb el mòdul de comunicacions via ràdio van comportar l'endarreriment del projecte fins el passat febrer de 2009. El llançament es va dur a terme el dia 28 de febrer. La població escollida va ser Bujaraloz, situada als Monegros, degut a la seva bona posició geogràfica. El llançament es va dur a terme amb èxit i el seguiment i recepció de dades es va fer amb 2 cotxes. Al cap de 2 hores i 10 minuts la sonda tocava terra de nou, i poca estona després era localitzada. Els resultats van ser totalment satisfactoris, i es van obtenir també bones fotografies.

Stationarity analysis of historical flood series in France and Spain (14th-20th centuries)

Interdisciplinary frameworks for studying natural hazards and their temporal trends have an important potential in data generation for risk assessment, land use planning, and therefore the sustainable management of resources. This paper focuses on the adjustments required because of the wide variety of scientific fields involved in the reconstruction and characterisation of flood events for the past 1000 years. The aim of this paper is to describe various methodological aspects of the study of flood events in their historical dimension, including the critical evaluation of old documentary and instrumental sources, flood-event classification and hydraulic modelling, and homogeneity and quality control tests. Standardized criteria for flood classification have been defined and applied to the Isère and Drac floods in France, from 1600 to 1950, and to the Ter, the Llobregat and the Segre floods, in Spain, from 1300 to 1980. The analysis on the Drac and Isère data series from 1600 to the present day showed that extraordinary and catastrophic floods were not distributed uniformly in time. However, the largest floods (general catastrophic floods) were homogeneously distributed in time within the period 1600¿1900. No major flood occurred during the 20th century in these rivers. From 1300 to the present day, no homogeneous behaviour was observed for extraordinary floods in the Spanish rivers. The largest floods were uniformly distributed in time within the period 1300-1900, for the Segre and Ter rivers.

A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Enhanced radar precipitation estimates using a combined clutter and beam blockage correction technique

Weather radar observations are currently the most reliable method for remote sensing of precipitation. However, a number of factors affect the quality of radar observations and may limit seriously automated quantitative applications of radar precipitation estimates such as those required in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data assimilation or in hydrological models. In this paper, a technique to correct two different problems typically present in radar data is presented and evaluated. The aspects dealt with are non-precipitating echoes - caused either by permanent ground clutter or by anomalous propagation of the radar beam (anaprop echoes) - and also topographical beam blockage. The correction technique is based in the computation of realistic beam propagation trajectories based upon recent radiosonde observations instead of assuming standard radio propagation conditions. The correction consists of three different steps: 1) calculation of a Dynamic Elevation Map which provides the minimum clutter-free antenna elevation for each pixel within the radar coverage; 2) correction for residual anaprop, checking the vertical reflectivity gradients within the radar volume; and 3) topographical beam blockage estimation and correction using a geometric optics approach. The technique is evaluated with four case studies in the region of the Po Valley (N Italy) using a C-band Doppler radar and a network of raingauges providing hourly precipitation measurements. The case studies cover different seasons, different radio propagation conditions and also stratiform and convective precipitation type events. After applying the proposed correction, a comparison of the radar precipitation estimates with raingauges indicates a general reduction in both the root mean squared error and the fractional error variance indicating the efficiency and robustness of the procedure. Moreover, the technique presented is not computationally expensive so it seems well suited to be implemented in an operational environment.

Analysis of warm season thunderstorms using an object-oriented tracking method based on radar and total lightning data

Monitoring thunderstorms activity is an essential part of operational weather surveillance given their potential hazards, including lightning, hail, heavy rainfall, strong winds or even tornadoes. This study has two main objectives: firstly, the description of a methodology, based on radar and total lightning data to characterise thunderstorms in real-time; secondly, the application of this methodology to 66 thunderstorms that affected Catalonia (NE Spain) in the summer of 2006. An object-oriented tracking procedure is employed, where different observation data types generate four different types of objects (radar 1-km CAPPI reflectivity composites, radar reflectivity volumetric data, cloud-to-ground lightning data and intra-cloud lightning data). In the framework proposed, these objects are the building blocks of a higher level object, the thunderstorm. The methodology is demonstrated with a dataset of thunderstorms whose main characteristics, along the complete life cycle of the convective structures (development, maturity and dissipation), are described statistically. The development and dissipation stages present similar durations in most cases examined. On the contrary, the duration of the maturity phase is much more variable and related to the thunderstorm intensity, defined here in terms of lightning flash rate. Most of the activity of IC and CG flashes is registered in the maturity stage. In the development stage little CG flashes are observed (2% to 5%), while for the dissipation phase is possible to observe a few more CG flashes (10% to 15%). Additionally, a selection of thunderstorms is used to examine general life cycle patterns, obtained from the analysis of normalized (with respect to thunderstorm total duration and maximum value of variables considered) thunderstorm parameters. Among other findings, the study indicates that the normalized duration of the three stages of thunderstorm life cycle is similar in most thunderstorms, with the longest duration corresponding to the maturity stage (approximately 80% of the total time).

Tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (1950-2009)

This paper presents a preliminary climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). A database spanning 60 yr (1950-2009) has been developed on the basis of information collected from various sources such as weather reports, insurance companies, newspapers and damage surveys. This database has been subjected to a rigorous validation process, and the climatology describes its main features: timing, spatial pattern, and trends in the tornado and waterspout distribution. Results show the highest concentration of tornadoes from August to October, the highest density in the heavily populated coastal areas and a growing positive trend that is likely more closely linked to an increase in observation and perception rather than a real climatic trend.

Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively characterize the climatology of daily precipitation indices in Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003. This work has been performed analyzing a subset of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices calculated from a new interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution (around 20 km) and from two high-quality stations: the Ebro and Fabra observatories. Using a jack-knife technique, we have found that the sampling error of the SPAIN02 regional averaged is relatively low. The trend analysis has been implemented using a Circular Block Bootstrap procedure applicable to non-normal distributions and autocorrelated series. A running trend analysis has been applied to analyze the trend persistence. No general trends at a regional scale are observed, considering the annual or the seasonal regional averaged series of all the indices for all the time windows considered. Only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern; around 30% of the Catalonia area has experienced an increase of around 2¿3 days decade¿1. The Ebro and Fabra observatories show a similar CDD trend, mainly due to the summer contribution. Besides this, a significant decrease in total precipitation (around ¿10 mm decade¿1) and in the index "highest precipitation amount in five-day period" (RX5DAY, around ¿5 mm decade¿1), have been found in summer for the Ebro observatory.

Climatic and land use changes in the NW of Iberian Peninsula recorded in a 1,500-year record from Lake Sanabria

L'estudi de diversos descriptors paleoambientals com ara el pol·len, les diatomees i la sedimentologia, realitzat en sediments procedents del llac de Sanabria (NO de la península Ibèrica), ha aportat informació sobre les oscil·lacions climàtiques atribuïdes als períodes càlids tardoromà i medieval, així com a la petita edat del gel. Entre els anys 440 i 950 dC, el clima es caracteritzà per temperatures suaus i un règim de precipitacions mediterrani, malgrat l¿existència de pulsacions més fredes vers els anys 530 i 700 dC. Les evidències pol·líniques dels usos del sòl indiquen l'extensió d¿activitats ramaderes i agrícoles. Aquesta fase correspon al final del període càlid romà i al període càlid medieval. El canvi de condicions climàtiques es produeix entre els anys 950 i 1100 dC, moment en què els valors mínims de matèria orgànica, pol·len arbori, concentració de diatomees, nitrogen total (TN) i mida del gra indiquen temperatures més baixes i un règim de precipitacions més regular. Aquest període correspon a

Rapid and sudden advection of warm and dry air in the Mediterranean Basin

Rapid advection of extremely warm and dry air is studied during two events in the Mediterranean Basin. On 27 August 2010 a rapid advection of extremely warm and dry air affected the northeast Iberian Peninsula during a few hours. At the Barcelona city center, the temperature reached 39.3 ° C, which is the maximum temperature value recorded during 230 yr of daily data series. On 23 March 2008 a rapid increase of temperature and drop of relative humidity were recorded for a few hours in Heraklion (Crete). During the morning on that day, the recorded temperature reached 34 °C for several hours on the northern coastline of this island.According to the World Meteorological Organization none of these events can be classified as a heat wave, which requires at least two days of abnormally high temperatures; neither are they a heat burst as defined by the American Meteorological Society, where abnormal temperatures take place during a few minutes. For this reason, we suggest naming this type of event flash heat. By using data from automatic weather stations in the Barcelona and Heraklion area and WRF mesoscale numerical simulations, these events are analyzed. Additionally, the primary risks and possible impacts on several fields are presented.

Linear and nonlinear terrain deformation maps from a reduced set of interferometric SAR images

In this paper, an advanced technique for the generation of deformation maps using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data is presented. The algorithm estimates the linear and nonlinear components of the displacement, the error of the digital elevation model (DEM) used to cancel the topographic terms, and the atmospheric artifacts from a reduced set of low spatial resolution interferograms. The pixel candidates are selected from those presenting a good coherence level in the whole set of interferograms and the resulting nonuniform mesh tessellated with the Delauney triangulation to establish connections among them. The linear component of movement and DEM error are estimated adjusting a linear model to the data only on the connections. Later on, this information, once unwrapped to retrieve the absolute values, is used to calculate the nonlinear component of movement and atmospheric artifacts with alternate filtering techniques in both the temporal and spatial domains. The method presents high flexibility with respect to the required number of images and the baselines length. However, better results are obtained with large datasets of short baseline interferograms. The technique has been tested with European Remote Sensing SAR data from an area of Catalonia (Spain) and validated with on-field precise leveling measurements.

Polarimetric radar interferometry for improved mine detection and surface clutter rejection

A recently developed technique, polarimetric radar interferometry, is applied to tackle the problem of the detection of buried objects embedded in surface clutter. An experiment with a fully polarimetric radar in an anechoic chamber has been carried out using different frequency bands and baselines. The processed results show the ability of this technique to detect buried plastic mines and to measure their depth. This technique enables the detection of plastic mines even if their backscatter response is much lower than that of the surface clutter.

Preface: Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events: uncertainties and propagation on environment (the MEDUP project)

The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, partly due to its quite unique character that results both from physiographic conditions and societal development. The region features indeed a near-closed sea surrounded by very urbanised littorals and mountains from which numerous rivers originate. This results in a lot of interactions and feedbacks between oceanic-atmospheric-hydrological processes that play a predominant role on climate and extreme events that frequently cause heavy dam- ages and human losses in the Mediterranean ...

Preface: Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning

This special issue of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) contains eight papers presented as oral or poster contributions in the Natural Hazards NH-1.2 session on"Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning", held at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, on 13-18 April 2008. The aim of the session was to provide an international forum for presenting new results and for discussing innovative ideas and concepts on extreme hydro-meteorological events, including: (i) the assessment of the risk posed by the extreme events, (ii) the expected changes in the frequency and intensity of the events driven by a changing climate and by multiple human- induced causes, (iii) new modelling approaches and original forecasting methods to predict extreme events and their consequences, and (iv) strategies for hazard mitigation and risk reduction, and for a improved adaptation to extreme hydro-meteorological events ...

Spatiotemporal variability in radial growth of trees in the Central Pyrenees: climatic and site influences.

To understand how tree growth has responded to recent climate warming, an understanding of the tree-climate-site complex is necessary. To achieve this, radial growth variability among 204 trees established before 1850 was studied in relation to both climatic and site factors. Seventeen forest stands were sampled in the Spanish Central Pyrenees. Three species were studied: Pinus uncinata, Abies alba, and Pinus sylvestris. For each tree, a ring-width residual chronology was built. All trees cross-dated well, indicating a common influence of the regional climate. For the 1952-1993 period, the radial growth of all species, especially P. uncinata, was positively correlated with warm Novembers during the year before ring formation and warm Mays of the year the annual ring formed. Differences in species-stand elevation modulated the growth-climate associations. Radial growth in P. uncinata at high elevation sites was reduced when May temperatures were colder and May precipitation more abundant. In the 20th century, two contrasting periods in radial growth were observed: one (1900-1949) with low frequency of narrow and wide rings, low mean annual sensitivity, and low common growth variation; and another (1950-1994) with the reverse characteristics. The increased variability in radial growth since the 1950s was observed for all species and sites, which suggests a climatic cause. The low shared variance among tree chronologies during the first half of the 20th century may result from a"relaxation" of the elevation gradient, allowing local site conditions to dominate macroclimatic influence. These temporal trends may be related to the recently reported increase of climatic variability and warmer conditions. This study emphasizes the need to carefully assess the relationships between radial growth and site conditions along ecological gradients to improve dendroclimatic reconstructions.

Characteristics of 2D convective structures in Catalonia (NE Spain): an analysis using radar data and GIS

Flood simulation studies use spatial-temporal rainfall data input into distributed hydrological models. A correct description of rainfall in space and in time contributes to improvements on hydrological modelling and design. This work is focused on the analysis of 2-D convective structures (rain cells), whose contribution is especially significant in most flood events. The objective of this paper is to provide statistical descriptors and distribution functions for convective structure characteristics of precipitation systems producing floods in Catalonia (NE Spain). To achieve this purpose heavy rainfall events recorded between 1996 and 2000 have been analysed. By means of weather radar, and applying 2-D radar algorithms a distinction between convective and stratiform precipitation is made. These data are introduced and analyzed with a GIS. In a first step different groups of connected pixels with convective precipitation are identified. Only convective structures with an area greater than 32 km2 are selected. Then, geometric characteristics (area, perimeter, orientation and dimensions of the ellipse), and rainfall statistics (maximum, mean, minimum, range, standard deviation, and sum) of these structures are obtained and stored in a database. Finally, descriptive statistics for selected characteristics are calculated and statistical distributions are fitted to the observed frequency distributions. Statistical analyses reveal that the Generalized Pareto distribution for the area and the Generalized Extreme Value distribution for the perimeter, dimensions, orientation and mean areal precipitation are the statistical distributions that best fit the observed ones of these parameters. The statistical descriptors and the probability distribution functions obtained are of direct use as an input in spatial rainfall generators.