Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Generic drugs in Spain: price competition vs. moral hazard

This paper examines competition between generic and brand-name drugs in the regulated Spanish pharmaceutical market. A nested logit demand model is specified for the three most consumed therapeutic subgroups in Spain: statins (anticholesterol), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (antidepressants) and proton pump inhibitors (antiulcers). The model is estimated with instrumental variables from a panel of monthly prescription data from 1999 to 2005. The dataset distinguishes between three different levels of patients’ copayments within the prescriptions and the results show that the greater the level of insurance that the patient has (and therefore the lower the patient’s copayment), the lower the proportion of generic prescriptions made by physicians. It seems that the low level of copayment has delayed the penetration of generics into the Spanish market. Additionally, the estimation of the demand model suggests that the substitution rules and promotional efforts associated with the reference pricing system have increased generic market share, and that being among the first generic entrants has an additional positive effect.

Eliciting preferences for collectively financed health programmes : the "willingness to assign" approach

Improving public involvement in health system decision making stands as a primary goal in health systems reform. However, still limited evidence is found on how best to elicit preferences for health care programs. This paper examines a contingent choice technique to elicit preferences among health programs so called, willingness to assign (WTAS): Moreover, we elicited contingents rankings as well as the willingness to pay extra taxes for comparative purposes. We argue that WTAS reveals relative ( monetary-based) values of a set of competing public programmes under a hypothetical healthcare budget assessment. Experimental evidence is reported from a delibertive empirical study valuing ten health programmes in the context of the Catalan Health Services. Evidence from a our experimental study reveals that perferences are internally more consistent and slightly less affected by "preference reversals" as compared to values revealed from the willingness to pay (WTP) extra taxes approach. Consistent with prior studies, we find that the deliberative approach helped to avoid possible misunderstandings. Interestingly, although programmes promoting health received the higher relative valuation, those promoting other health benefits also ranked highly

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Evaluación económica de la determinación del propéptido natriurético cerebral N-terminal (NT-proBNP) en pacientes con disnea en los servicios de urgencias españoles

Introducción: Analizar la eficiencia de añadir la determinación NT-proBNP al examen clínico convencional (ECC) para el diagnóstico de insuficiencia cardíaca (IC) en pacientes con disnea que acuden a servicios de urgencias (SU) españoles. Material y métodos: Se desarrolló un árbol de decisión para evaluar los resultados clínicos y económicos de ambas alternativas durante 60 días de seguimiento desde la visita al SU en pacientes hospitalizados y no hospitalizados. Los parámetros clínicos fueron principalmente obtenidos del estudio PRIDE y validados por médicos de SU y cardiólogos. El punto de corte de la determinación NT-proBNP fue de 900 pg/mL (sensibilidad del 90% y especificidad del 85%). En base a datos espa noles publicados, se asumió que el 65% de pacientes con disnea sufrían IC. El uso de recursos fue identificado mediante opinión de expertos y evaluado desde la perspectiva del Sistema Nacional de Salud (SNS). El análisis comparó el diagnóstico final del paciente con el diagnóstico realizado en el SU. Se realizaron diversos análisis de sensibilidad para evaluar la incertidumbre del modelo. Resultados: El diagnóstico incorporando la determinación NT-proBNP fue correcto en el 91,96% de los pacientes (59,09% verdaderos positivos y 32,87% verdaderos negativos) frente al 85,53% mediante ECC (50,79% verdaderos positivos y 34,74% verdaderos negativos). La incorporación de la determinación NT-proBNP resultó tener un coste menor (3.720 versus 5.188 ). Los análisis de sensibilidad realizados confirmaron los resultados.

Eliciting preferences for collectively financed health programmes : the "willingness to assign" approach

Improving public involvement in health system decision making stands as a primary goal in health systems reform. However, still limited evidence is found on how best to elicit preferences for health care programs. This paper examines a contingent choice technique to elicit preferences among health programs so called, willingness to assign (WTAS): Moreover, we elicited contingents rankings as well as the willingness to pay extra taxes for comparative purposes. We argue that WTAS reveals relative ( monetary-based) values of a set of competing public programmes under a hypothetical healthcare budget assessment. Experimental evidence is reported from a delibertive empirical study valuing ten health programmes in the context of the Catalan Health Services. Evidence from a our experimental study reveals that perferences are internally more consistent and slightly less affected by "preference reversals" as compared to values revealed from the willingness to pay (WTP) extra taxes approach. Consistent with prior studies, we find that the deliberative approach helped to avoid possible misunderstandings. Interestingly, although programmes promoting health received the higher relative valuation, those promoting other health benefits also ranked highly

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Evaluación económica de los impactos del cambio climático sobre la salud

El Informe Stern, realizado a instancias del Gobierno Británico, se ha convertido en el documento paradigmático de la economía del cambio climático. No solo proporciona una estimación de los costes del cambio climático, sino que resulta ser una aportación fundamental a la evaluación de los datos existentes y al fomento de un mayor conocimiento de los aspectos económicos del cambio climático. El informe tiene una perspectiva internacional, por cuanto el cambio climático es un problema mundial, tanto en sus causas como en sus consecuencias. La adopción de medidas colectivas a nivel internacional es crucial para conseguir una respuesta eficaz, eficiente y equitativa. Así, se insta a la comunidad internacional a actuar con fuerza y de forma inmediata en la toma de decisiones que permitan reducir las emisiones (de CO2) para que los efectos del cambio climático no comiencen a ser irremediables. De hecho, la principal conclusión del informe es que los beneficios de la adopción de medidas prontas y firmes sobre el cambio climático superarán con creces los costes

Evaluación económica de la determinación del propéptido natriurético cerebral N-terminal (NT-proBNP) en pacientes con disnea en los servicios de urgencias españoles

Introducción: Analizar la eficiencia de añadir la determinación NT-proBNP al examen clínico convencional (ECC) para el diagnóstico de insuficiencia cardíaca (IC) en pacientes con disnea que acuden a servicios de urgencias (SU) españoles. Material y métodos: Se desarrolló un árbol de decisión para evaluar los resultados clínicos y económicos de ambas alternativas durante 60 días de seguimiento desde la visita al SU en pacientes hospitalizados y no hospitalizados. Los parámetros clínicos fueron principalmente obtenidos del estudio PRIDE y validados por médicos de SU y cardiólogos. El punto de corte de la determinación NT-proBNP fue de 900 pg/mL (sensibilidad del 90% y especificidad del 85%). En base a datos espa noles publicados, se asumió que el 65% de pacientes con disnea sufrían IC. El uso de recursos fue identificado mediante opinión de expertos y evaluado desde la perspectiva del Sistema Nacional de Salud (SNS). El análisis comparó el diagnóstico final del paciente con el diagnóstico realizado en el SU. Se realizaron diversos análisis de sensibilidad para evaluar la incertidumbre del modelo. Resultados: El diagnóstico incorporando la determinación NT-proBNP fue correcto en el 91,96% de los pacientes (59,09% verdaderos positivos y 32,87% verdaderos negativos) frente al 85,53% mediante ECC (50,79% verdaderos positivos y 34,74% verdaderos negativos). La incorporación de la determinación NT-proBNP resultó tener un coste menor (3.720 versus 5.188 ). Los análisis de sensibilidad realizados confirmaron los resultados.

Pharmacoeconomics of Cyclamen europaeum in the management of Acute Rhinosinusitis

Objective. To carry out a pharmacoeconomic analysis of Cyclamen europaeum (CE) in the management of acute rhinosinusitis (ARS) in Spain using data from the PROSINUS study. Study Design. This was a prospective observational study to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness between therapies including CE vs. other therapies in the management of ARS. Methods. The study was carried out as a secondary analysis of the PROSINUS, combining healthcare resource use, productivity loses, and health outcomes from the observational study with costs representative of the Spanish Health System. Results. CE given as monotherapy appears to be more effective (cure rate) than other monotherapies (15.3% higher, p<0.05) and combination (10.3% higher, p<0.05) therapies. The addition of CE to other single-drug or combination therapies showed a statistically significant improvement in terms of cure rates when adding CE to 2-drug combinations (93.9% vs. 76.5%; p<0.05), and no significant effect when added to combinations of three or more drugs (81.1% vs. 79.8; NS). CE based therapies generally showed lower indirect costs, although only the comparison of CE alone vs. other monotherapies, with a net cost savings of 101 per patient, reached statistical significance (331 vs. 432 , p<0.05). In addition, CE-based therapies show lower cost per cured patient in all comparisons except when CE was used in combination with three or more other drugs. Conclusions. The use of Cyclamen europaeum may be associated to better clinical outcomes at no additional cost for the healthcare system, respect to treatments commonly used for ARS in clinical practice.

Generic utilities in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients stratified according to different staging systems.

Background To determine generic utilities for Spanish chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients stratified by different classifications: GOLD 2007, GOLD 2013, GesEPOC 2012 and BODEx index. Methods Multicentre, observational, cross-sectional study. Patients were aged ≥40 years, with spirometrically confirmed COPD. Utility values were derived from EQ-5D-3 L. Means, standard deviations (SD), medians and interquartile ranges (IQR) were computed based on the different classifications. Differences in median utilities between groups were assessed by non-parametric tests. Results 346 patients were included, of which 85.5% were male with a mean age of 67.9 (SD = 9.7) years and a mean duration of COPD of 7.6 (SD = 5.8) years; 80.3% were ex-smokers and the mean smoking history was 54.2 (SD = 33.2) pack-years. Median utilities (IQR) by GOLD 2007 were 0.87 (0.22) for moderate; 0.80 (0.26) for severe and 0.67 (0.42) for very-severe patients (p < 0.001 for all comparisons). Median utilities by GOLD 2013 were group A: 1.0 (0.09); group B: 0.87 (0.13); group C: 1.0 (0.16); group D: 0.74 (0.29); comparisons were statistically significant (p < 0.001) except A vs C. Median utilities by GesEPOC phenotypes were 0.84 (0.33) for non exacerbator; 0.80 (0.26) for COPD-asthma overlap; 0.71 (0.62) for exacerbator with emphysema; 0.72 (0.57) for exacerbator with chronic bronchitis (p < 0.001). Comparisons between patients with or without exacerbations and between patients with COPD-asthma overlap and exacerbator with chronic bronchitis were statistically-significant (p < 0.001). Median utilities by BODEx index were: group 02: 0.89 (0.20); group 34: 0.80 (0.27); group 56: 0.67 (0.29); group 79: 0.41 (0.31). All comparisons were significant (p < 0.001) except between groups 34 and 56. Conclusion Irrespective of the classification used utilities were associated to disease severity. Some clinical phenotypes were associated with worse utilities, probably related to a higher frequency of exacerbations. GOLD 2007 guidelines and BODEx index better discriminated patients with a worse health status than GOLD 2013 guidelines, while GOLD 2013 guidelines were better able to identify a smaller group of patients with the best health.

Ownership, Incentives and Hospitals

This article analyzes hospital privatization by comparing costs and quality between different ownership forms. We put the attention on the distinction between public hospitals and private hospitals with public funding. Using information about Spanish hospitals, we have found that private hospitals provide services at a lower cost at expenses of lower quality. We observe that property rights theory is fulfilled at least for the Spanish hospital market. The way that Heath Authorities finance publicly funded hospitals may be responsible for the differences in incentives between public and private centers. We argue that the trade-off between costs and quality could be minimized by designing financing contracts with fixed and variable components.

The use of cost per life year gained as a measurement of cost-effectiveness in Spain: a systematic review of recent publications

The objective of this study was to evaluate the methodological characteristics of cost-effectiveness evaluations carried out in Spain, since 1990, which include LYG as an outcome to measure the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. METHODS: A systematic review of published studies was conducted describing their characteristics and methodological quality. We analyse the cost per LYG results in relation with a commonly accepted Spanish cost-effectiveness threshold and the possible relation with the cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained when they both were calculated for the same economic evaluation. RESULTS: A total of 62 economic evaluations fulfilled the selection criteria, 24 of them including the cost per QALY gained result as well. The methodological quality of the studies was good (55%) or very good (26%). A total of 124 cost per LYG results were obtained with a mean ratio of 49,529 and a median of 11,490 (standard deviation of 183,080). Since 2003, a commonly accepted Spanish threshold has been referenced by 66% of studies. A significant correlation was found between the cost per LYG and cost per QALY gained results (0.89 Spearman-Rho, 0.91 Pearson). CONCLUSIONS: There is an increasing interest for economic health care evaluations in Spain, and the quality of the studies is also improving. Although a commonly accepted threshold exists, further information is needed for decision-making as well as to identify the relationship between the costs per LYG and per QALY gained.

Development of a population-based cost-effectiveness model of chronic graft versus host disease in Spain

Chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD) is the leading cause of late nonrelapse mortality (transplant-related mortality) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant. Given that there are a wide range of treatment options for cGvHD, assessment of the associated costs and efficacy can help clinicians and health care providers allocate health care resources more efficiently. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) compared with rituximab (Rmb) and with imatinib (Imt) in patients with cGvHD at 5 years from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. METHODS: The model assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness/utility ratio of ECP versus Rmb or Imt for 1000 hypothetical patients by using microsimulation cost-effectiveness techniques. Model probabilities were obtained from the literature. Treatment pathways and adverse events were evaluated taking clinical opinion and published reports into consideration. Local data on costs (2010 Euros) and health care resources utilization were validated by the clinical authors. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the model. RESULTS: The greater efficacy of ECP resulted in a gain of 0.011 to 0.024 quality-adjusted life-year in the first year and 0.062 to 0.094 at year 5 compared with Rmb or Imt. The results showed that the higher acquisition cost of ECP versus Imt was compensated for at 9 months by greater efficacy; this higher cost was partially compensated for ( 517) by year 5 versus Rmb. After 9 months, ECP was dominant (cheaper and more effective) compared with Imt. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ECP versus Rmb was 29,646 per life-year gained and 24,442 per quality-adjusted life-year gained at year 2.5. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the results. The main study limitation was that to assess relative treatment effects, only small studies were available for indirect comparison. CONCLUSION: ECP as a third-line therapy for cGvHD is a more cost-effective strategy than Rmb or Imt.