The Analysis of interval censoring and double censoring via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

L'Anàlisi de la supervivència s'utilitza en diferents camps per analitzar el temps transcorregut entre dos esdeveniments. El que distingeix l'anàlisi de la supervivència d'altres àrees de l'estadística és que les dades normalment estan censurades. La censura en un interval apareix quan l'esdeveniment final d'interès no és directament observable i només se sap que el temps de fallada està en un interval concret. Un esquema de censura més complex encara apareix quan tant el temps inicial com el temps final estan censurats en un interval. Aquesta situació s'anomena doble censura. En aquest article donem una descripció formal d'un mètode bayesà paramètric per a l'anàlisi de dades censurades en un interval i dades doblement censurades així com unes indicacions clares de la seva utilització o pràctica. La metodologia proposada s'ilustra amb dades d'una cohort de pacients hemofílics que es varen infectar amb el virus VIH a principis dels anys 1980's.

Conjugacy of piecewise linear Lorenz map that expand on average

For piecewise linear Lorenz map that expand on average, we show that it admits a dichotomy: it is either periodic renormalizable or prime. As a result, such a map is conjugate to a ß-transformation.

Exponentially small splitting of separatrices in the perturbed McMillan map

The McMillan map is a one-parameter family of integrable symplectic maps of the plane, for which the origin is a hyperbolic fixed point with a homoclinic loop, with small Lyapunov exponent when the parameter is small. We consider a perturbation of the McMillan map for which we show that the loop breaks in two invariant curves which are exponentially close one to the other and which intersect transversely along two primary homoclinic orbits. We compute the asymptotic expansion of several quantities related to the splitting, namely the Lazutkin invariant and the area of the lobe between two consecutive primary homoclinic points. Complex matching techniques are in the core of this work. The coefficients involved in the expansion have a resurgent origin, as shown in [MSS08].

Resurgence of inner solutions for perturbations of the McMillan map

A sequence of “inner equations” attached to certain perturbations of the McMillan map was considered in [MSS09], their solutions were used in that article to measure an exponentially small separatrix splitting. We prove here all the results relative to these equations which are necessary to complete the proof of the main result of [MSS09]. The present work relies on ideas from resurgence theory: we describe the formal solutions, study the analyticity of their Borel transforms and use ´Ecalle’s alien derivations to measure the discrepancy between different Borel-Laplace sums.

Creació automàtica de gràfics estadístics a partir de dades de soroll d’Europa amb tecnologies Open Source en el visor Noise Map Viewer de l’ETC-LUSI

El projecte ha consistit en la creació de gràfics estadístics de soroll d’Europa de forma automàtica amb tecnologies Open Source dins el visor Noise Map Viewer per Europa de l’ETC-LUSI. La llibreria utilitzada per fer aquest procés ha estat JFreeChart i el llenguatge de programació utilitzat ha estat Java (programació orientada a objectes) dins l’entorn de desenvolupament integrat Eclipse. La base de dades utilitzada ha estat PostgreSQL. Com a servidors s’han fet servir Apache (servidor HTTP) i Tomcat (servidor contenidor d’aplicacions). Un cop acabat el procés s’ha integrat dins de MapFish canviant el codi JavaScript corresponent de la web original.

Diseño, Desarrollo e Implementación de una aplicación WEB-MAP para la visualización y consulta de los proyectos ejecutados por AudingIntraesa

Consiste en el desarrollo de una aplicación WEB-MAP para la visualización y consulta de los proyectos ejecutados por AudingIntraesa. La tecnología utilizada fue MySQL como sistema de gestión de bases de datos, HTTP Apache como servidor web y Adobe Flex como entorno de desarrollo. Se creó una base de datos. Se diseñó una interfaz de usuario intuitiva, eficiente y atractiva. Se desarrollaron rutinas en AS3 para dotar de funcionalidades a la aplicación. Incluyen la consulta y actualización en tiempo de ejecución, descarga de ficheros externos, la fácil navegación por el mapa con capacidades de zoom, pan, cambio de mapas.

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

Markov chain montecarlo method applied to rounding zeros of compositional data: first approach

As stated in Aitchison (1986), a proper study of relative variation in a compositional data set should be based on logratios, and dealing with logratios excludes dealing with zeros. Nevertheless, it is clear that zero observations might be present in real data sets, either because the corresponding part is completelyabsent –essential zeros– or because it is below detection limit –rounded zeros. Because the second kind of zeros is usually understood as “a trace too small to measure”, it seems reasonable to replace them by a suitable small value, and this has been the traditional approach. As stated, e.g. by Tauber (1999) and byMartín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000), the principal problem in compositional data analysis is related to rounded zeros. One should be careful to use a replacement strategy that does not seriously distort the general structure of the data. In particular, the covariance structure of the involvedparts –and thus the metric properties– should be preserved, as otherwise further analysis on subpopulations could be misleading. Following this point of view, a non-parametric imputation method isintroduced in Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000). This method is analyzed in depth by Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2003) where it is shown that thetheoretical drawbacks of the additive zero replacement method proposed in Aitchison (1986) can be overcome using a new multiplicative approach on the non-zero parts of a composition. The new approachhas reasonable properties from a compositional point of view. In particular, it is “natural” in the sense thatit recovers the “true” composition if replacement values are identical to the missing values, and it is coherent with the basic operations on the simplex. This coherence implies that the covariance structure of subcompositions with no zeros is preserved. As a generalization of the multiplicative replacement, in thesame paper a substitution method for missing values on compositional data sets is introduced

Multiple non-collinear TF-map alignments of promoter regions

Background: The analysis of the promoter sequence of genes with similar expression patterns isa basic tool to annotate common regulatory elements. Multiple sequence alignments are on thebasis of most comparative approaches. The characterization of regulatory regions from coexpressedgenes at the sequence level, however, does not yield satisfactory results in manyoccasions as promoter regions of genes sharing similar expression programs often do not shownucleotide sequence conservation.Results: In a recent approach to circumvent this limitation, we proposed to align the maps ofpredicted transcription factors (referred as TF-maps) instead of the nucleotide sequence of tworelated promoters, taking into account the label of the corresponding factor and the position in theprimary sequence. We have now extended the basic algorithm to permit multiple promotercomparisons using the progressive alignment paradigm. In addition, non-collinear conservationblocks might now be identified in the resulting alignments. We have optimized the parameters ofthe algorithm in a small, but well-characterized collection of human-mouse-chicken-zebrafishorthologous gene promoters.Conclusion: Results in this dataset indicate that TF-map alignments are able to detect high-levelregulatory conservation at the promoter and the 3'UTR gene regions, which cannot be detectedby the typical sequence alignments. Three particular examples are introduced here to illustrate thepower of the multiple TF-map alignments to characterize conserved regulatory elements inabsence of sequence similarity. We consider this kind of approach can be extremely useful in thefuture to annotate potential transcription factor binding sites on sets of co-regulated genes fromhigh-throughput expression experiments.

Transcription factor map alignment of promoter regions

We address the problem of comparing and characterizing the promoter regions of genes with similar expression patterns. This remains a challenging problem in sequence analysis, because often the promoter regions of co-expressed genes do not show discernible sequence conservation. In our approach, thus, we have not directly compared the nucleotide sequence of promoters. Instead, we have obtained predictions of transcription factor binding sites, annotated the predicted sites with the labels of the corresponding binding factors, and aligned the resulting sequences of labels—to which we refer here as transcription factor maps (TF-maps). To obtain the global pairwise alignment of two TF-maps, we have adapted an algorithm initially developed to align restriction enzyme maps. We have optimized the parameters of the algorithm in a small, but well-curated, collection of human–mouse orthologous gene pairs. Results in this dataset, as well as in an independent much larger dataset from the CISRED database, indicate that TF-map alignments are able to uncover conserved regulatory elements, which cannot be detected by the typical sequence alignments.

Lifespan extension by calorie restriction relies on the Sty1 MAP kinase stress pathway

Either calorie restriction, loss of function of the nutrient-dependent PKA or TOR/SCH9 pathways, or activation of stress defences improves longevity in different eukaryotes. However, the molecular links between glucose depletion, nutrient-dependent pathways and stress responses are unknown. Here we show that either calorie restriction or inactivation of nutrient-dependent pathways induces life-span extension in fission yeast, and that such effect is dependent on the activation of the stress-dependent Sty1 MAP kinase. During transition to stationary phase in glucose-limiting conditions, Sty1 becomes activated and triggers a transcriptional stress program, whereas such activation does not occur under glucose-rich conditions. Deletion of the genes coding for the SCH9-homologue Sck2 or the Pka1 kinases, or mutations leading to constitutive activation of the Sty1 stress pathway increase life span under glucose-rich conditions, and importantly such beneficial effects depend ultimately on Sty1. Furthermore, cells lacking Pka1 display enhanced oxygen consumption and Sty1 activation under glucose-rich conditions. We conclude that calorie restriction favours oxidative metabolism, reactive oxygen species production and Sty1 MAP kinase activation, and this stress pathway favours life-span extension.

The Brauer group and the second Abel-Jacobi map for 0-cycles on algebraic varieties

This paper focuses on the connection between the Brauer group and the 0-cycles of an algebraic variety. We give an alternative construction of the second l-adic Abel-Jacobi map for such cycles, linked to the algebraic geometry of Severi-Brauer varieties on X. This allows us then to relate this Abel-Jacobi map to the standard pairing between 0-cycles and Brauer groups (see [M], [L]), completing results from [M] in this direction. Second, for surfaces, it allows us to present this map according to the more geometrical approach devised by M. Green in the framework of (arithmetic) mixed Hodge structures (see [G]). Needless to say, this paper owes much to the work of U. Jannsen and, especially, to his recently published older letter [J4] to B. Gross.

Stochastic processes induced by dichotomous markov noise: Some exact dynamical results

Stochastic processes defined by a general Langevin equation of motion where the noise is the non-Gaussian dichotomous Markov noise are studied. A non-FokkerPlanck master differential equation is deduced for the probability density of these processes. Two different models are exactly solved. In the second one, a nonequilibrium bimodal distribution induced by the noise is observed for a critical value of its correlation time. Critical slowing down does not appear in this point but in another one.

Self-organized criticality and synchronization in a coupled map lattice model of integrate-and-fire oscillators

We introduce two coupled map lattice models with nonconservative interactions and a continuous nonlinear driving. Depending on both the degree of conservation and the convexity of the driving we find different behaviors, ranging from self-organized criticality, in the sense that the distribution of events (avalanches) obeys a power law, to a macroscopic synchronization of the population of oscillators, with avalanches of the size of the system.