A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

A new compact linear programming formulation for choice network revenue management

The choice network revenue management model incorporates customer purchase behavioras a function of the offered products, and is the appropriate model for airline and hotel networkrevenue management, dynamic sales of bundles, and dynamic assortment optimization.The optimization problem is a stochastic dynamic program and is intractable. A certainty-equivalencerelaxation of the dynamic program, called the choice deterministic linear program(CDLP) is usually used to generate dyamic controls. Recently, a compact linear programmingformulation of this linear program was given for the multi-segment multinomial-logit (MNL)model of customer choice with non-overlapping consideration sets. Our objective is to obtaina tighter bound than this formulation while retaining the appealing properties of a compactlinear programming representation. To this end, it is natural to consider the affine relaxationof the dynamic program. We first show that the affine relaxation is NP-complete even for asingle-segment MNL model. Nevertheless, by analyzing the affine relaxation we derive a newcompact linear program that approximates the dynamic programming value function betterthan CDLP, provably between the CDLP value and the affine relaxation, and often comingclose to the latter in our numerical experiments. When the segment consideration sets overlap,we show that some strong equalities called product cuts developed for the CDLP remain validfor our new formulation. Finally we perform extensive numerical comparisons on the variousbounds to evaluate their performance.

Gestió forestal de masses d'arboç (Arbutus unedo) en regeneració després de foc al terme municipal d'Esparreguera

Els incendis forestals són una pertorbació amb un paper decisiu en l’estructura i dinàmica dels ecosistemes mediterranis. La majoria de les seves espècies vegetals presenten mecanismes de resposta al foc, com la germinació de llavors i la rebrotada d’individus cremats. Les masses forestals regenerades a partir de rebrots assoleixen densitats massa altes i una baixa producció, i, per tant, és fonamental dur a terme una gestió mitjançant tractaments silvícoles. El principal objectiu d’aquest projecte és quantificar l’efecte de la selecció de rebrots i la selecció de rebrots més la desbrossada sobre el creixement de l’Arbutus unedo. S’han estudiat 12 parcel—les en regeneració després dels incendis de 1985, 1986 i 1994 al terme municipal d’Esparreguera. Els resultats mostren que els dos tractaments afavoreixen de la mateixa manera el creixement dels peus d’Arbutus unedo, a causa de la disminució de la competència intraespecífica i interespecífica. La desbrossada (a nivell de parcel—la, no d’individu), no obstant, provoca un increment probablement perjudicial de l’alçada dels rebrots, per la major disponibilitat de llum. Per tal de proposar un model de gestió forestal, s’ha realitzat una anàlisi multicriterial dels diferents escenaris, on s’han considerat altres criteris, com són el model de combustible, la possibilitat de pastura i el cost econòmic. L’alternativa preferida en els boscos d’Arbutus unedo és la selecció de rebrots i la desbrossada.

AgilITIL : creación de una wiki semántica de soporte a los procesos de control

Este trabajo tiene como objetivo crear una Wiki Semántica que sirva de soporte para un modelo de gestión de servicios ágil, colaborativo y fácilmente implantable en las organizaciones denominadas pymes. En este tipo de organizaciones el posicionamiento inicial, ante la adopción de políticas como las sugeridas en ITIL, suele ser de rechazo, por la cantidad de trabajo añadido que previsiblemente genera. La Web Semántica aporta al conjunto la capacidad para establecer reglas de gestión del conocimiento, factor determinante para el crecimiento de una organización. El marco de recomendaciones ITIL es muy extenso y en este trabajo se pretende dar respuesta a los procesos de control pertenecientes a la fase del ciclo de vida denominada "Transición del Servicio". Estos procesos son: la gestión de la configuración, la gestión del cambio y la gestión de la entrega y despliegue.

L'emprenedoria femenina i la immigració a Osona. El suport dels serveis municipals

En la literatura sobre creació d’empreses, les dones empresàries són considerades un re· servori de desenvolupament econòmic i un model de gestió empresarial alternatiu. D’al· tra banda, els immigrants posseeixen un fort esperit emprenedor. El paper de les adminis· tracions locals per donar suport a aquests col· lectius en la creació d’empreses és rellevant. L’intens procés migratori viscut a Osona en els darrers anys mereix una anàlisi des de la perspectiva de l’emprenedoria de gènere. Aquest estudi fa una comparació de les em· presàries autòctones i immigrades de la co· marca, així com de les polítiques de suport realitzades pels ajuntaments.

Evaluación y plan de actuación en materia de Prevención de Riesgos Laborales del Hotel Tanit (Benidorm)

El presente documento es un proyecto de intervención en el marco de la prevención de riesgos laborales en un hotel de tres estrellas de la localidad turística de Benidorm. A partir de un análisis exhaustivo de las necesidades de la organización, sus características intrínsecas, su modelo de gestión de la prevención de riesgos laborales, y una evaluación específica de cuatro puestos de trabajo, se pretende comprobar el funcionamiento de la gestión de la prevención, con el objetivo de proponer aquellas actuaciones que puedan mejorarlo. Para llevar a cabo dicha labor, se empleará una metodología analítica extraída de las guías técnicas del Instituto Nacional de Seguridad e Higiene en el trabajo (INSHT en adelante), que contemplan modelos y metodologías de evaluación ampliamente contrastados como el modelo de demanda-control-apoyo social de Robert Karasek, desarrollado por la metodología ISTAS21 de la NTP 604 del INSHT, o la Guía Técnica de pantallas de visualización de datos (PVD) del INSHT desarrolladora del RD 488/1997.El proyecto pretende de esta manera alcanzar unas conclusiones acordes a la fiabilidad de la metodología empleada, y de esta forma proponer actuaciones preventivas correctoras para los factores de riesgo hallados durante la evaluación de los puestos de trabajo, y que se ajusten en todo momento a los requerimientos legales vigentes en materia de prevención de riesgos laborales.Finalmente, el proyecto propondrá a modo de conclusiones la actualización del Plan preventivo con el que cuenta la empresa, en base a los descubrimientos hallados durante la investigación, así como una serie de acciones dirigidas a la satisfactoria integración de la actividad preventiva dentro del modelo de gestión de la empresa.

Gestió del turisme cultural a les comarques de Girona: anàlisis i propostes dels Consells Comarcals i les oficines de turisme municipals

L’objectiu principal d’aquest treball és analitzar el model de gestió actual dels Consells Comarcals i de les oficines de turisme municipals de les diferents comarques gironines pel què fa al turisme cultural

Estudio de las metodologías de gestión de proyectos para la integración de sistemas de información en entornos fabriles de mediano tamaño

El trabajo ha consistido en una investigación sobre las metodologías de gestión de proyectos de integración de sistemas de información, con el objetivo de sintetizar una metodología específica alineada con el modelo de gestión de proyectos definido en el PMBOK y su aplicación para la definición de un proyecto de integración de sistemas de una fábrica.

La gestión del regadío catalán: entre eficiencia, compatibilidad de usos y legitimidad

In previous years, irrigation and its management have become protagonists of a social debate that questions their economic, environmental and territorial limits in space and time. The hydraulic constructions as irrigation canals have played a central role in the attempt to “dominate” the water resources and so control the territory. However and after some time, both the modernization of traditional irrigation as the promotion of new irrigation projects are called into question due to the rise of environmental demands and promoting governance as a mechanism favourable to agreements between stakeholders. In Catalonia, the irrigation management must deal both efficiency requirements as to the compatibility between consumptive and non-consumptive water uses well as the social legitimacy of projects that exceed sectoral interest. The situation analysis of Bajo Ter and Muga historic irrigation canals and the running project of Segarra-Garrigues irrigation canal emphasize the need to promote a territorial management model capable of integrating and legitimize different competing water views

La gestió del regadiu a Catalunya: plans, actors i reptes de futur

Irrigation has traditionally constituted one of the most characteristic and emblematic agricultural mosaics of the Mediterranean as a key factor of socio-economic dynamism of the territorial matrix. In recent years there has been an important scientific, intellectual and social environment mobilization around water uses and, in particular, around the main socio-economic use of resource: irrigation, which is undergoing an intense and accelerated transformation process. Thus, in parallel with the decline of traditional irrigation systems, located in areas with natural availability of water, fertile soil and appropriate topographic conditions, the socio-economic changes in the last decade have stimulated the appearance of new irrigated areas with environmental, social and economic disparate characteristics. As a result, the irrigation management model has been conditioned to respond to the new parameters of water scarcity and resource efficiency. In addition, policies and actors have evolved over time as a consequence of disparate priorities –and often conflicting– in terms of irrigation, making necessary the gear of different discourses. In this context, the Model of social commitment of irrigation proposed by the Institutional and Social Innovations in Irrigation Mediterranean Management (ISIIMM) can become a starting example

A multi-objective model for a multi-period distribution management problem

The problems arising in commercial distribution are complex and involve several players and decision levels. One important decision is relatedwith the design of the routes to distribute the products, in an efficient and inexpensive way.This article deals with a complex vehicle routing problem that can beseen as a new extension of the basic vehicle routing problem. The proposed model is a multi-objective combinatorial optimization problemthat considers three objectives and multiple periods, which models in a closer way the real distribution problems. The first objective is costminimization, the second is balancing work levels and the third is amarketing objective. An application of the model on a small example, with5 clients and 3 days, is presented. The results of the model show the complexity of solving multi-objective combinatorial optimization problems and the contradiction between the several distribution management objective.

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk managementbased on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interestrates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that defaultfree discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and twofactors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between thelong-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several newmeasures of ``generalized duration" are presented and applied in differentsituations in order to manage market risk and yield curve risk. By means ofthese measures, we are able to compute the hedging ratios that allows us toimmunize a bond portfolio by means of options on bonds. Focusing on thehedging problem, it is shown that these new measures allow us to immunize abond portfolio against changes (parallel and/or in the slope) in the yieldcurve. Finally, a proposal of solution of the limitations of conventionalduration by means of these new measures is presented and illustratednumerically.

A fuzzy-based decision model application on strategic management

In this article, the objective is to demonstrate the effects of different decision styles on strategic decisions and likewise, on an organization. The technique that was presented in the study is based on the transformation of linguistic variables to numerical value intervals. In this model, the study benefits from fuzzy logic methodology and fuzzy numbers. This fuzzy methodology approach allows us to examine the relations between decision making styles and strategic management processes when there is uncertainty. The purpose is to provide results to companies that may help them to exercise the most appropriate decision making style for its different strategic management processes. The study is leaving more research topics for further studies that may be applied to other decision making areas within the strategic management process.

'Heures' a bio-economic model for Mediterranean fisheries, towards the evaluation of management strategies

The bio-economic model "Heures" is a first attempt to develop a simulation procedure to understand the Northwestern Mediterranean fisheries, to evaluate management strategies and to analyze the feasibility of implementing an adaptative management. The model is built on the interaction among three boxes simulating the dynamics of each of the basic actors of a fishery: the stock, the market and the fishermen. A fourth actor, the manager, imposes or modifies the rules, or, in terms of the model, modifies some particular parameters. Thus, the model allows us to simulate and evaluate the mid-term biologic and economic effects of particular management measures. The bio-economic nature of the model is given by the interaction among the three boxes, by the market simulation and, particularly, by the fishermen behaviour. This last element confers to the model its Mediterranean"selfregulated" character. The fishermen allocate their investments to maximize fishing mortality but, having a legal effort limit, they invest in maintenance and technology in order to increase the catchability, which, as a consequence. will be function of the invested capital.