Índexos indicadors de l'estat de l'ecosistema costaner: influència dels factors físoco-químics en l'ecologia del plàncton

La tesi en projecte aborda l’estudi multiescala de la relació entre la variabilitat de la turbulència i els nutrients, i l’estructura i la dinàmica de l’ecosistema costaner en el Mediterrani noroccidental. A partir d’experiments al laboratori i de diferents campanyes al mar, es pretén generar indicadors de funcionament de l’ecosistema planctònic sensibles a variacions hidrodinàmiques. L’efecte conjunt de la turbulència i els nutrients es preveu condicionat no únicament per la magnitud d’ambdues variables, sino també per la relació temporal entre els episodis de turbulència i els aports de nutrients. Per tal de tenir una casuística més àmplia de validació dels indicadors, s’han seleccionat tres àrees d’estudi properes a les desembocadures de rius amb aports de nutrients de concentracions relatives molt variables. La finalitat última del treball és millorar la comprensió del funcionament de l’ecosistema costaner en la interfase terra-mar per a una gestió més eficaç dels recursos.

Simulation methods with extended stability for stiff biochemical kinetics

Background: With increasing computer power, simulating the dynamics of complex systems in chemistry and biology is becoming increasingly routine. The modelling of individual reactions in (bio)chemical systems involves a large number of random events that can be simulated by the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The key quantity is the step size, or waiting time, τ, whose value inversely depends on the size of the propensities of the different channel reactions and which needs to be re-evaluated after every firing event. Such a discrete event simulation may be extremely expensive, in particular for stiff systems where τ can be very short due to the fast kinetics of some of the channel reactions. Several alternative methods have been put forward to increase the integration step size. The so-called τ-leap approach takes a larger step size by allowing all the reactions to fire, from a Poisson or Binomial distribution, within that step. Although the expected value for the different species in the reactive system is maintained with respect to more precise methods, the variance at steady state can suffer from large errors as τ grows. Results: In this paper we extend Poisson τ-leap methods to a general class of Runge-Kutta (RK) τ-leap methods. We show that with the proper selection of the coefficients, the variance of the extended τ-leap can be well-behaved, leading to significantly larger step sizes.Conclusions: The benefit of adapting the extended method to the use of RK frameworks is clear in terms of speed of calculation, as the number of evaluations of the Poisson distribution is still one set per time step, as in the original τ-leap method. The approach paves the way to explore new multiscale methods to simulate (bio)chemical systems.

Evaluating the Performance of a Regional-Scale Photochemical Modelling System: Part I Ozone Predictions

We present a detailed evaluation of the seasonal performance of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system and the PSU/NCAR meteorological model coupled to a new Numerical Emission Model for Air Quality (MNEQA). The combined system simulates air quality at a fine resolution (3 km as horizontal resolution and 1 h as temporal resolution) in north-eastern Spain, where problems of ozone pollution are frequent. An extensive database compiled over two periods, from May to September 2009 and 2010, is used to evaluate meteorological simulations and chemical outputs. Our results indicate that the model accurately reproduces hourly and 1-h and 8-h maximum ozone surface concentrations measured at the air quality stations, as statistical values fall within the EPA and EU recommendations. However, to further improve forecast accuracy, three simple bias-adjustment techniques mean subtraction (MS), ratio adjustment (RA), and hybrid forecast (HF) based on 10 days of available comparisons are applied. The results show that the MS technique performed better than RA or HF, although all the bias-adjustment techniques significantly reduce the systematic errors in ozone forecasts.

A look to the HyMeX program (Una mirada al programa HyMeX)

The international HyMeX (Hydrological Mediterranean Experiment) program aims to improve our understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean, using a multidisciplinary and multiscale approach and with emphasis on extreme events. This program will improve our understanding and our predictive ability of hydrometeorological hazards including their evolution within the next century. One of the most important results of the program will be its observational campaigns, which will greatly improve the data available, leading to significant scientific results. The interest of the program for the Spanish research groups is described, as the active participation of some of them in the design and execution of the observational activities. At the same time, due to its location, Spain is key to the program, being a good observation platform. HyMeX will enrich the work of the Spanish research groups, it will improve the predictive ability of the weather services, will help us to have a better understanding of the impacts of hydrometeorological extremes on our society and will lead to better strategies for adapting to climate change.