Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

Methods and representativeness of European surveys in children and adolescents: the KIDSCREEN study

Background: The objective of the present study was to compare three different sampling and questionnaire administration methods used in the international KIDSCREEN study in terms of participation, response rates, and external validity. Methods: Children and adolescents aged 8–18 years were surveyed in 13 European countries using either telephone sampling and mail administration, random sampling of school listings followed by classroom or mail administration, or multistage random sampling of communities and households with self-administration of the survey materials at home. Cooperation, completion, and response rates were compared across countries and survey methods. Data on non-respondents was collected in 8 countries. The population fraction (PF, respondents in each sex-age, or educational level category, divided by the population in the same category from Eurostat census data) and population fraction ratio (PFR, ratio of PF) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals were used to analyze differences by country between the KIDSCREEN samples and a reference Eurostat population. Results: Response rates by country ranged from 18.9% to 91.2%. Response rates were highest in the school-based surveys (69.0%–91.2%). Sample proportions by age and gender were similar to the reference Eurostat population in most countries, although boys and adolescents were slightly underrepresented (PFR <1). Parents in lower educational categories were less likely to participate (PFR <1 in 5 countries). Parents in higher educational categories were overrepresented when the school and household sampling strategies were used (PFR = 1.78–2.97). Conclusion: School-based sampling achieved the highest overall response rates but also produced slightly more biased samples than the other methods. The results suggest that the samples were sufficiently representative to provide reference population values for the KIDSCREEN instrument.

Predictability of drug expenditures: An application using morbidity data

The growth of pharmaceutical expenditure and its prediction is a major concern for policy makers and health care managers. This paper explores different predictive models to estimate future drug expenses, using demographic and morbidity individual information from an integrated healthcare delivery organization in Catalonia for years 2002 and 2003. The morbidity information consists of codified health encounters grouped through the Clinical Risk Groups (CRGs). We estimate pharmaceutical costs using several model specifications, and CRGs as risk adjusters, providing an alternative way of obtaining high predictive power comparable to other estimations of drug expenditures in the literature. These results have clear implications for the use of risk adjustment and CRGs in setting the premiums for pharmaceutical benefits.

Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.

Estimates of patient costs related with population morbidity: Can indirect costs affect the results?

A number of health economics works require patient cost estimates as a basic information input.However the accuracy of cost estimates remains in general unspecified. We propose to investigate howthe allocation of indirect costs or overheads can affect the estimation of patient costs in order to allow forimprovements in the analysis of patient costs estimates. Instead of focusing on the costing method, thispaper proposes to highlight changes in variance explained observed when a methodology is chosen. Wecompare three overhead allocation methods for a specific Spanish population adjusted using the ClinicalRisk Groups (CRG), and we obtain different series of full-cost group estimates. As a result, there aresignificant gains in the proportion of the variance explained, depending upon the methodology used.Furthermore, we find that the global amount of variation explained by risk adjustment models dependsmainly on direct costs and is independent of the level of aggregation used in the classification system.

The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

Are we living longer but less healthy? Trends in mortality and morbidity in Catalonia (Spain), 1994-2011

Evidence on trends in prevalence of disease and disability can clarify whether countries are experiencing a compression or expansion of morbidity. An expansion of morbidity as indicated by disease have appeared in Europe and other developed regions. It is likely that better treatment, preventive measures and increases in education levels have contributed to the declines in mortality and increments in life expectancy. This paper examines whether there has been an expansion of morbidity in Catalonia (Spain). It uses trends in mortality and morbidity from major causes of death and links of these with survival to provide estimates of life expectancy with and without diseases and functioning loss. We use a repeated cross-sectional health survey carried out in 1994 and 2011 for measures of morbidity; mortality information comes from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Our findings show that at age 65 the percentage of life with disease increased from 52% to 70% for men, and from 56% to 72% for women; the expectation of life unable to function increased from 24% to 30% for men and 40% to 47% for women between 1994 and 2011. These changes were attributable to increases in the prevalences of diseases and moderate functional limitation. Overall, we find an expansion of morbidity along the period. Increasing survival among people with diseases can lead to a higher prevalence of diseases in the older population. Higher prevalence of health problems can lead to greater pressure on the health care system and a growing burden of disease for individuals.

Effect of maternal clinical chorioamnionitis on neonatal morbidity in very-low birthweight infants: a case control study

Aims: To assess the relationship between maternal clinical chorioamnionitis and neonatal outcome in preterm very-low birthweight (VLBW) infants. Methods: An observational case-control study was conducted in the Neonatology Services of 12 acute-care teaching hospitals in Spain. Between January 2004 and December 2006, all consecutive VLBW (F1500 g) infants born to a mother with clinical chorioamnionitis were enrolled. Controls were infants without chorioamnionitis matched by gestational age who were born immediately after each index case. Results: There were 165 cases and 163 controls. A significantly higher percentage of cases than controls required intubation (53% vs. 35.8%), had normal intrauterine growth (98.1% vs. 84.7%), were born in a tertiary center (inborn) (95.1% vs. 89.1%), from single gestations (76.4% vs. 65.6%) and vaginal delivery (47.3% vs. 33.3%), showed a lowerApgar score at 5 min, and presented a higher rate of earlyonset sepsis (10.4% vs. 1.2%). Older maternal age (32.5 vs. 30.8 years), premature labor (67.3% vs. 25.8%), premature rupture of membranes (61.3% vs. 25.8%), and antibiotic treatment (88.5% vs. 52.3%) were significantly more frequent among cases than controls. Conclusions: After controlling by gestational age, maternal chorioamnionitis was associated with neonatal depression and early sepsis but not with other prematurity-related complications.

Effect of maternal clinical chorioamnionitis on neonatal morbidity in very-low birthweight infants: a case control study

Aims: To assess the relationship between maternal clinical chorioamnionitis and neonatal outcome in preterm very-low birthweight (VLBW) infants. Methods: An observational case-control study was conducted in the Neonatology Services of 12 acute-care teaching hospitals in Spain. Between January 2004 and December 2006, all consecutive VLBW (F1500 g) infants born to a mother with clinical chorioamnionitis were enrolled. Controls were infants without chorioamnionitis matched by gestational age who were born immediately after each index case. Results: There were 165 cases and 163 controls. A significantly higher percentage of cases than controls required intubation (53% vs. 35.8%), had normal intrauterine growth (98.1% vs. 84.7%), were born in a tertiary center (inborn) (95.1% vs. 89.1%), from single gestations (76.4% vs. 65.6%) and vaginal delivery (47.3% vs. 33.3%), showed a lowerApgar score at 5 min, and presented a higher rate of earlyonset sepsis (10.4% vs. 1.2%). Older maternal age (32.5 vs. 30.8 years), premature labor (67.3% vs. 25.8%), premature rupture of membranes (61.3% vs. 25.8%), and antibiotic treatment (88.5% vs. 52.3%) were significantly more frequent among cases than controls. Conclusions: After controlling by gestational age, maternal chorioamnionitis was associated with neonatal depression and early sepsis but not with other prematurity-related complications.

Effect of maternal clinical chorioamnionitis on neonatal morbidity in very-low birthweight infants: a case control study

Aims: To assess the relationship between maternal clinical chorioamnionitis and neonatal outcome in preterm very-low birthweight (VLBW) infants. Methods: An observational case-control study was conducted in the Neonatology Services of 12 acute-care teaching hospitals in Spain. Between January 2004 and December 2006, all consecutive VLBW (F1500 g) infants born to a mother with clinical chorioamnionitis were enrolled. Controls were infants without chorioamnionitis matched by gestational age who were born immediately after each index case. Results: There were 165 cases and 163 controls. A significantly higher percentage of cases than controls required intubation (53% vs. 35.8%), had normal intrauterine growth (98.1% vs. 84.7%), were born in a tertiary center (inborn) (95.1% vs. 89.1%), from single gestations (76.4% vs. 65.6%) and vaginal delivery (47.3% vs. 33.3%), showed a lowerApgar score at 5 min, and presented a higher rate of earlyonset sepsis (10.4% vs. 1.2%). Older maternal age (32.5 vs. 30.8 years), premature labor (67.3% vs. 25.8%), premature rupture of membranes (61.3% vs. 25.8%), and antibiotic treatment (88.5% vs. 52.3%) were significantly more frequent among cases than controls. Conclusions: After controlling by gestational age, maternal chorioamnionitis was associated with neonatal depression and early sepsis but not with other prematurity-related complications.

Serological and virological surveys of the influenza A viruses in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic penguins

To evaluate the avian influenza virus (AIV) circulation in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic penguins we carried out a serosurvey on six species from Livingston, Marion and Gough islands. Seropositivity against AIV was performed on serum samples using a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and haemagglutination and neuraminidase inhibition assays. Some oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs were also assayed to detect influenza virus genomes by real time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Overall, 12.1% (n = 140) penguins were seropositive to AIV. By species, we detected 5% (n = 19) and 11% (n = 18) seroprevalence in sub-Antarctic rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes spp.) from Gough and Marion islands, respectively, 42% (n = 33) seroprevalence in macaroni penguins (Eudyptes chysolophus Brandt), but no positives in the three other species, gentoo (Pygoscelis papua Forster; n = 25) and chinstrap penguins (P. antarctica Forster; n = 16), from Livingston Island and king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus Miller; n = 27) from Marion Island. While seropositivity reflected previous exposure to the AIV, the influenza genome was not detected. Our results indicate that AIV strains have circulated in penguin species in the sub-Antarctic region, but further studies are necessary to determine the precise role that such penguin species play in AIV epidemiology and if this circulation is species (or genus) specific.

Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated.