Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

The effects of poor financial information systems on the long term sustainability of local public services. Empirical evidence from the Catalan Municipalities

In this paper we describe the existence of financial illusion in public accountingand we comment on its effects for the future sustainability of local publicservices. We relate these features to the lack of incentives amongst publicmanagers for improving the financial reporting and thus management of publicassets. Financial illusion pays off for politicians and managers since it allowsfor larger public expenditure increases and managerial slack, these beingarguments in their utility functions. This preference is strengthen by the shorttime perspective of politically appointed public managers. Both factors runagainst public accountability. This hypothesis is tested for Spain by using anunique sample. We take data from around forty Catalan local authorities withpopulation above 20,000 for the financial years 1993-98. We build this databasis from the Catalan Auditing Office Reports in a way that it can be linkedto some other local social and economic variables in order to test ourassumptions. The results confirm that there is a statistical relationship between the financialillusion index (FI as constructed in the paper) and higher current expenditure.This reflects on important overruns and increases of the delay in payingsuppliers, as well as on a higher difficulties to face capital finance. Mechanismsfor FI creation have to do among other factors, with delays in paying suppliers(and thereafter higher future financial costs per unit of service), no adequateprovision for bad debts and lack of appropriate capital funding either forreposition or for new equipments. For this, it is crucial to monitor the way inwhich capital transfers are accounted in local public sheet balances. As a result,for most of the Municipalities we analyse, the funds for guaranteeing continuityand sustainability of public services provision are today at risk.Given managerial incentives at present in public institutions, we conclude thatpublic regulation recently enforced for assuring better information systems inlocal public management may not be enough to change the current state of affairs.

The impact of interest-rate subsidies on long-term household debt: Evidence from a large program

The responsiveness of long-term household debt to the interest rate is acrucial parameter for assessing the effectiveness of public policies aimedat promoting specific types of saving. This paper estimates the effect ofa reform of Credito Bonificado, a large program in Portugal that subsidizedmortgage interest rates, on long-term household debt. The reform establisheda ceiling in the price of the house that could be financed through theprogram, and provides plausibly exogenous variation in incentives. Usinga unique dataset of matched household survey data and administrative recordsof debt, we document a large decrease in the probability of signing a newloan after the removal of the subsidy.

Hiring and firing costs, adverse selection and long-term unemployment

In this paper, we present a matching model with adverse selection that explains why flows into and out of unemployment are much lower in Europe compared to North America, while employment-to-employment flows are similar in the two continents. In the model,firms use discretion in terms of whom to fire and, thus, low quality workers are more likely to be dismissed than high quality workers. Moreover, as hiring and firing costs increase, firms find it more costly to hire a bad worker and, thus, they prefer to hire out of the pool of employed job seekers rather than out of the pool of the unemployed, who are more likely to turn out to be 'lemons'. We use microdata for Spain and the U.S. and find that the ratio of the job finding probability of the unemployed to the job finding probability of employed job seekers was smaller in Spain than in the U.S. Furthermore, using U.S. data, we find that the discrimination of the unemployed increased over the 1980's in those states that raised firing costs by introducing exceptions to the employment-at-will doctrine.

Regulation of GABA(A) and glutamate receptor expression, synaptic facilitation and long-term potentiation in the hippocampus of prion mutant mice

Background: Prionopathies are characterized by spongiform brain degeneration, myoclonia, dementia, and periodic electroencephalographic (EEG) disturbances. The hallmark of prioniopathies is the presence of an abnormal conformational isoform (PrP(sc)) of the natural cellular prion protein (PrP(c)) encoded by the Prnp gene. Although several roles have been attributed to PrP(c), its putative functions in neuronal excitability are unknown. Although early studies of the behavior of Prnp knockout mice described minor changes, later studies report altered behavior. To date, most functional PrP(c) studies on synaptic plasticity have been performed in vitro. To our knowledge, only one electrophysiological study has been performed in vivo in anesthetized mice, by Curtis and coworkers. They reported no significant differences in paired-pulse facilitation or LTP in the CA1 region after Schaffer collateral/commissural pathway stimulation. Principal Findings: Here we explore the role of PrP(c) expression in neurotransmission and neural excitability using wild-type, Prnp -/- and PrP(c)-overexpressing mice (Tg20 strain). By correlating histopathology with electrophysiology in living behaving mice, we demonstrate that both Prnp -/- mice but, more relevantly Tg20 mice show increased susceptibility to KA, leading to significant cell death in the hippocampus. This finding correlates with enhanced synaptic facilitation in paired-pulse experiments and hippocampal LTP in living behaving mutant mice. Gene expression profiling using Illumina microarrays and Ingenuity pathways analysis showed that 129 genes involved in canonical pathways such as Ubiquitination or Neurotransmission were co-regulated in Prnp -/- and Tg20 mice. Lastly, RT-qPCR of neurotransmission-related genes indicated that subunits of GABA(A) and AMPA-kainate receptors are co-regulated in both Prnp -/- and Tg20 mice. Conclusions/Significance: Present results demonstrate that PrP(c) is necessary for the proper homeostatic functioning of hippocampal circuits, because of its relationships with GABA(A) and AMPA-Kainate neurotransmission. New PrP(c) functions have recently been described, which point to PrP(c) as a target for putative therapies in Alzheimer's disease. However, our results indicate that a "gain of function" strategy in Alzheimer's disease, or a "loss of function" in prionopathies, may impair PrP(c) function, with devastating effects. In conclusion, we believe that present data should be taken into account in the development of future therapies.

Agglomeration and labour productivity in Spanish industry: a long-term analysis

This paper analyzes the relationship between spatial density of economic activity and interregional differences in the productivity of industrial labour in Spain during the period 1860-1999. In the spirit of Ciccone and Hall (1996) and Ciccone (2002), we analyze the evolution of this relationship over the long term in Spain. Using data on the period 1860-1999 we show the existence of an agglomeration effect linking the density of economic activity with labour productivity in the industry. This effect was present since the beginning of the industrialization process in the middle of the 19th century but has been decreasing over time. The estimated elasticity of labour productivity with respect to employment density was close to 8% in the subperiod 1860-1900, reduces to a value of around 7% in the subperiod 1914-1930, to 4% in the subperiod 1965-1979 and becomes insignificant in the final subperiod 1985-1999. At the end of the period analyzed there is no evidence of the existence of net agglomeration effects in the industry. This result could be explained by an important increase in the congestion effects in large industrial metropolitan areas that would have compensated the centripetal or agglomeration forces at work. Furthermore, this result is also consistent with the evidence of a dispersion of industrial activity in Spain during the last decades.

Agglomeration and labour productivity in Spanish industry: a long-term analysis

This paper analyzes the relationship between spatial density of economic activity and interregional differences in the productivity of industrial labour in Spain during the period 1860-1999. In the spirit of Ciccone and Hall (1996) and Ciccone (2002), we analyze the evolution of this relationship over the long term in Spain. Using data on the period 1860-1999 we show the existence of an agglomeration effect linking the density of economic activity with labour productivity in the industry. This effect was present since the beginning of the industrialization process in the middle of the 19th century but has been decreasing over time. The estimated elasticity of labour productivity with respect to employment density was close to 8% in the subperiod 1860-1900, reduces to a value of around 7% in the subperiod 1914-1930, to 4% in the subperiod 1965-1979 and becomes insignificant in the final subperiod 1985-1999. At the end of the period analyzed there is no evidence of the existence of net agglomeration effects in the industry. This result could be explained by an important increase in the congestion effects in large industrial metropolitan areas that would have compensated the centripetal or agglomeration forces at work. Furthermore, this result is also consistent with the evidence of a dispersion of industrial activity in Spain during the last decades.

Agglomeration and labour productivity in Spanish industry: a long-term analysis

This paper analyzes the relationship between spatial density of economic activity and interregional differences in the productivity of industrial labour in Spain during the period 1860-1999. In the spirit of Ciccone and Hall (1996) and Ciccone (2002), we analyze the evolution of this relationship over the long term in Spain. Using data on the period 1860-1999 we show the existence of an agglomeration effect linking the density of economic activity with labour productivity in the industry. This effect was present since the beginning of the industrialization process in the middle of the 19th century but has been decreasing over time. The estimated elasticity of labour productivity with respect to employment density was close to 8% in the subperiod 1860-1900, reduces to a value of around 7% in the subperiod 1914-1930, to 4% in the subperiod 1965-1979 and becomes insignificant in the final subperiod 1985-1999. At the end of the period analyzed there is no evidence of the existence of net agglomeration effects in the industry. This result could be explained by an important increase in the congestion effects in large industrial metropolitan areas that would have compensated the centripetal or agglomeration forces at work. Furthermore, this result is also consistent with the evidence of a dispersion of industrial activity in Spain during the last decades.

Ten years after the Prestige Oil Spill: seabird trophic ecology as indicator of long-term effects on the coastal marine ecosystem

Major oil spills can have long-term impacts since oil pollution does not only result in acute mortality of marine organisms, but also affects productivity levels, predator-prey dynamics, and damages habitats that support marine communities. However, despite the conservation implications of oil accidents, the monitoring and assessment of its lasting impacts still remains a difficult and daunting task. Here, we used European shags to evaluate the overall, lasting effects of the Prestige oil spill (2002) on the affected marine ecosystem. Using δ15N and Hg analysis, we trace temporal changes in feeding ecology potentially related to alterations of the food web due to the spill. Using climatic and oceanic data, we also investigate the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the sea surface temperature (SST) and the chlorophyll a (Chl a) on the observed changes. Analysis of δ15N and Hg concentrations revealed that after the Prestige oil spill, shag chicks abruptly switched their trophic level from a diet based on a high percentage of demersal-benthic fish to a higher proportion of pelagic/semi-pelagic species. There was no evidence that Chl a, SST and NAO reflected any particular changes or severity in environmental conditions for any year or season that may explain the sudden change observed in trophic level. Thus, this study highlighted an impact on the marine food web for at least three years. Our results provide the best evidence to date of the long-term consequences of the Prestige oil spill. They also show how, regardless of wider oceanographic variability, lasting impacts on predator-prey dynamics can be assessed using biochemical markers. This is particularly useful if larger scale and longer term monitoring of all trophic levels is unfeasible due to limited funding or high ecosystem complexity.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Long-term treatment with insulin induces apoptosis in brown adipocytes: role of oxidative stress

Trying to define the precise role played by insulin regulating the survival of brown adipocytes, we have used rat fetal brown adipocytes maintained in primary culture. The effect of insulin on apoptosis and the mechanisms involved were assessed. Different from the known effects of insulin as a survival factor, we have found that long-term treatment (72 h) with insulin induces apoptosis in rat fetal brown adipocytes. This process is dependent on the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/mammalian target of rapamycin/p70 S6 kinase pathway. Short-term treatment with the conditioned medium from brown adipocytes treated with insulin for 72 h mimicked the apoptotic effect of insulin. During the process, caspase 8 activation, Bid cleavage, cytochrome c release, and activation of caspases 9 and 3 are sequentially produced. Treatment with the caspase inhibitor, benzyloxycarbonyl-Val-Ala-Asp (Z-VAD), prevents activation of this apoptotic cascade. The antioxidants, ascorbic acid and superoxide dismutase, also impair this process of apoptosis. Moreover, generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), probably through reduced nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate oxidases, and a late decrease in reduced glutathione content are produced. According to this, antioxidants prevent caspase 8 activation and Bid cleavage, suggesting that ROS production is an important event mediating this process of apoptosis. However, the participation of uncoupling protein-1, -2, and -3 regulating ROS is unclear because their levels remain unchanged upon insulin treatment for 72 h. Our data suggest that the prolonged hyperinsulinemia might cause insulin resistance through the loss of brown adipose tissue.

Emergence and development of a financial cluster: the evolution of Andorra’s banking deposits in the long-term, 1931-2007

This paper explores the origins of Andorra’s financial cluster. It shows that the free movement of currency, the protection of infant industry, and geographical concentration lie at the foundation of the cluster’s competitive advantage. Drawing on a new set of data, the paper also provides for the first time an estimate of the total deposits held by Andorra’s banks between 1931 and 2007. Based on this new information, the paper reaches the conclusion that the development of the cluster went through four distinct phases in which large companies, acting as leaders, played an important role in enhancing the cluster’s business capabilities.

Association between Long-Term Exposure to Traffic-Related Air Pollution and Subclinical Atherosclerosis: The REGICOR Study

Background: Epidemiological evidence of the effects of long-term exposure to air pollu tion on the chronic processes of athero genesis is limited. Objective: We investigated the association of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollu tion with subclinical atherosclerosis, measured by carotid intima media thickness (IMT) and ankle–brachial index (ABI). Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis using data collected during the reexamination (2007–2010) of 2,780 participants in the REGICOR (Registre Gironí del Cor: the Gerona Heart Register) study, a population-based prospective cohort in Girona, Spain. Long-term exposure across residences was calculated as the last 10 years’ time-weighted average of residential nitrogen dioxide (NO2) estimates (based on a local-scale land-use regression model), traffic intensity in the nearest street, and traffic intensity in a 100 m buffer. Associations with IMT and ABI were estimated using linear regression and multinomial logistic regression, respectively, controlling for sex, age, smoking status, education, marital status, and several other potential confounders or intermediates. Results: Exposure contrasts between the 5th and 95th percentiles for NO2 (25 μg/m), traffic intensity in the nearest street (15,000 vehicles/day), and traffic load within 100 m (7,200,000 vehicle-m/day) were associated with differences of 0.56% (95% CI: –1.5, 2.6%), 2.32% (95% CI: 0.48, 4.17%), and 1.91% (95% CI: –0.24, 4.06) percent difference in IMT, respectively. Exposures were positively associated with an ABI of > 1.3, but not an ABI of < 0.9. Stronger associations were observed among those with a high level of education and in men ≥ 60 years of age. Conclusions: Long-term traffic-related exposures were associated with subclinical markers of atherosclerosis. Prospective studies are needed to confirm associations and further examine differences among population subgroups.key words: ankle–brachial index, average daily traffic, cardiovascular disease, exposure assessment, exposure to tailpipe emissions, intima media thickness, land use regression model, Mediterranean diet, nitrogen dioxide

Long-term functional improvements in the 2-year treatment of schizophrenia outpatients with olanzapine long-acting injection

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the long-term changes in the functioning of schizophrenia patients receiving maintenance therapy with olanzapine long-acting injection (LAI), and whether observed changes differ from those seen with oral olanzapine. METHODS: This study describes changes in the levels of functioning among outpatients with schizophrenia treated with olanzapine-LAI compared with oral olanzapine over 2 years. This was a secondary analysis of data from a multicenter, randomized, open-label, 2-year study comparing the long-term treatment effectiveness of monthly olanzapine-LAI (405 mg/4 weeks; n=264) with daily oral olanzapine (10 mg/day; n=260). Levels of functioning were assessed with the Heinrichs-Carpenter Quality of Life Scale. Functional status was also classified as 'good', 'moderate', or 'poor', using a previous data-driven approach. Changes in functional levels were assessed with McNemar's test and comparisons between olanzapine-LAI and oral olanzapine employed the Student's t-test. RESULTS: Over the 2-year study, the patients treated with olanzapine-LAI improved their level of functioning (per Quality of Life total score) from 64.0-70.8 (P<0.001). Patients on oral olanzapine also increased their level of functioning from 62.1-70.1 (P<0.001). At baseline, 19.2% of the olanzapine-LAI-treated patients had a 'good' level of functioning, which increased to 27.5% (P<0.05). The figures for oral olanzapine were 14.2% and 24.5%, respectively (P<0.001). Results did not significantly differ between olanzapine-LAI and oral olanzapine. CONCLUSION: In this 2-year, open-label, randomized study of olanzapine-LAI, outpatients with schizophrenia maintained or improved their favorable baseline level of functioning over time. Results did not significantly differ between olanzapine-LAI and oral olanzapine.

Optimal coexistence of long-term and short-term contracts in labor Markets

We consider a market where firms hire workers to run their projects and such projects differ in profitability. At any period, each firm needs two workers to successfully run its project: a junior agent, with no specific skills, and a senior worker, whose effort is not verifiable. Senior workers differ in ability and their competence is revealed after they have worked as juniors in the market. We study the length of the contractual relationships between firms and workers in an environment where the matching between firms and workers is the result of market interaction. We show that, despite in a one-firm-one-worker set-up long-term contracts are the optimal choice for firms, market forces often induce firms to use short-term contracts. Unless the market only consists of firms with very profitable projects, firms operating highly profitable projects offer short-term contracts to ensure the service of high-ability workers and those with less lucrative projects also use short-term contracts to save on the junior workers' wage. Intermediate firms may (or may not) hire workers through long-term contracts.