Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Hausman tests for inefficient estimators: application to demand for health care service (revised)

The Hausman (1978) test is based on the vector of differences of two estimators. It is usually assumed that one of the estimators is fully efficient, since this simplifies calculation of the test statistic. However, this assumption limits the applicability of the test, since widely used estimators such as the generalized method of moments (GMM) or quasi maximum likelihood (QML) are often not fully efficient. This paper shows that the test may easily be implemented, using well-known methods, when neither estimator is efficient. To illustrate, we present both simulation results as well as empirical results for utilization of health care services.

The black-white test score gap widens with age?

We re-examine the theoretical concept of a production function for cognitive achievement, and argue that an indirect production function that depends upon the variables that constrain parents' choices is both moretractable from an econometric point of view, and more interesting from an economic point of view than is a direct production function that depends upon a detailed list of direct inputs such as number of books in the household. We estimate flexible econometric models of indirect production functions for two achievement measures from the Woodcock-Johnson Revised battery, using data from two waves of the Child Development Supplement to the PSID. Elasticities of achievement measures with respect to family income and parents' educational levels are positive and significant. Gaps between scores of black and white children narrow or remain constant as children grow older, a result that differs from previous findings in the literature. The elasticities of achievement scores with respect to family income are substantially higher for children of black families, and there are some notable difference in elasticities with respect to parents' educational levels across blacks and whites.

¿Qué Calidad de Vida tienen nuestros asmáticos? Aplicación de la Versión Española Reducida del “Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire” (AQLQ) o mini-AQLQ.

Estudio descriptivo transversal llevado a cabo en un centro urbano de atención primaria, con una muestra de 250 asmáticos, de entre 536 registrados en el centro, que pretende estudiar su calidad de vida y su relación con diferentes variables (edad, sexo, tabaquismo, patologías crónicas más prevalentes, ansiedad y/o depresión, rinitis alérgica, tipo de asma y grado de control). Para ello se les aplicó el test Mini-AQLQ, que valora la calidad de vida en una escala del 1 al 7 (15 preguntas), donde 1 supone el mayor grado de discapacidad y 7 el mayor grado de autonomía.

Replacement therapy for iron deficiency improves exercise capacity and quality of life in patients with cyanotic congenital heart disease and/or the Eisenmenger syndrome

La teràpia suplementària de ferro millora la capacitat d’exercici i la qualitat de vida en malalts amb una cardiopatia congènita cianòtica i/ o síndrome d’Eisenmenger El dèficit de ferro és una troballa comú en la cardiopatia congènita cianòtica, i pot ser la causa d’una reducció en la capacitat d’exercici. Actualment, està indicada la reposició dels dipòsits de ferro en aquest grup de malalts, éssent les evidències científiques escasses. En el present treball investiguem la seguretat i eficàcia del tractament amb ferro en malalts amb una cardiopatia congènita cianòtica. Per tal motiu, vint-i-cinc malalts amb una cardiopatia congenita cianòtica i dèficit de ferro van ser inclosos de forma prospectiva entre Agost del 2008 i Gener del 2009. El tractament utilitzat fou fumarat ferròs oral, fins a una dosi màxima de 200 mg tres vegades al dia. En l’anàlisi basal i als tres mesos de seguiment es va utilitzar el test de qualitat de vida “CAMPHOR”, el test de la marxa dels 6 minuts i la prova d’esforç amb consum d’oxigen. L’edat mitja fou 39.9+/-10.9 anys, 80% dones. Catorze malalts tenien la síndrome d’Eisenmenger, sis una malaltia cianòtica complexa i cinc circulació de Fontan. Cap d’ells va haver d'interrompre el tractament degut a efectes adversos. Després de tres mesos de tractament, l’hemoglobina (19.0+/-2.9g/dL a 20.4+/-2.7g/dL, p&0.001), ferritina (13.3+/-4.7mug/L a 54.1+/-24.2mug/L, p&0.001) i saturació de transferrina (17.8+/-9.6% a 34.8+/-23.4%, p&0.001) van augmentar significativament. També hi va haver una millora significativa en la puntuació del test de qualitat de vida (20.7+/-10.9 a 16.2+/-10.4, p=0.001) i el test de la marxa (371.7+/-84.7m a 402.8.0+/-74.9m, p=0.001). No es van evidenciar canvis significatius en els valors de consum d’oxigen (40.7+/-9.2% a 43.8+/-12.4%, p=0.15). En definitiva, la teràpia suplementària amb ferro en els malats amb una cardiopatia congènita cianòtica i dèficit de ferro és segura i millora la qualitat de vida i la capacitat funcional. En aquest grup de malalts, per tant, és aconsellable identificar el dèficit de ferro i restaurar-ne els seus dipòsits.

Job satisfaction and life satisfaction: Analysis of a reciprocal model with social demographic moderators

The general objective of the study was to empirically test a reciprocal model of job satisfaction and life satisfaction while controlling for some social demographic variables. 827 employees working in 34 car dealerships in Northern Quebec (56% responses rate) were surveyed. The multiple item questionnaires were analysed using correlation analysis, chi square and ANOVAs. Results show interesting patterns emerging for the relationships between job and life satisfaction of which 49.2% of all individuals have spillover, 43.5% compensation, and 7.3% segmentation type of relationships. Results, nonetheless, are far richer and the model becomes much more refined when social demographic indicators are taken into account. Globally, social demographic variables demonstrate some effects on each satisfaction individually but also on the interrelation (nature of the relations) between life and work satisfaction.

Promoting rule compliance in daily-life: Evidence from a randomized field experiment in the public libraries of Barcelona

We study how to promote compliance with rules in everyday situations. Having access to unique data on the universe of users of all public libraries inBarcelona, we test the effect of sending email messages with dierent contents.We find that users return their items earlier if asked to do so in a simple email.Emails reminding users of the penalties associated with late returns are more effective than emails with only a generic reminder. We find differential treatmenteffects by user types. The characteristics we analyze are previous compliance,gender, age, and nationality.

Sustainability of EU fiscal policies. A panel test

The fiscal policy rule implicit in the Stability and Growth Pact, has been rationalised as a way to ensure that national fiscal policies remain sustainable within the EU, thereby endorsing the independence of the ECB. We empirically examine the sustainability of European fiscal policies over the period 1970-2001. The intertemporal government budget constraint provides a test based on the cointegration relation between government revenues, expenditures and interest payments. Sustainability is analysed at both the national level and for a European panel. Results show that European fiscal policy has been sustainable overall, yet national experiences differ considerably.

Is the influence of quality of life on urban growth non-stationary in space? A case study of Barcelona

There are several determinants that influence household location decisions. More concretely, recent economic literature assigns an increasingly important role to the variables governing quality of life. Nevertheless, the spatial stationarity of the parameters is implicitly assumed in most studies. Here we analyse the role of quality of life in urban economics and test for the spatial stationarity of the relationship between city growth and quality of life.

Validation of an instrument to evaluate quality of life in the aging population: WHOQOL-AGE.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for short, specific instruments that assess quality of life (QOL) adequately in the older adult population. The aims of the present study were to obtain evidence on the validity of the inferences that could be drawn from an instrument to measure QOL in the aging population (people 50+ years old), and to test its psychometric properties. METHODS: The instrument, WHOQOL-AGE, comprised 13 positive items, assessed on a five-point rating scale, and was administered to nationally representative samples (n = 9987) from Finland, Poland, and Spain. Cronbach's alpha was employed to assess internal consistency reliability, whereas the validity of the questionnaire was assessed by means of factor analysis, graded response model, Pearson's correlation coefficient and unpaired t-test. Normative values were calculated across countries and for different age groups. RESULTS: The satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices confirmed that the factorial structure of WHOQOL-AGE comprises two first-order factors. Cronbach's alpha was 0.88 for factor 1, and 0.84 for factor 2. Evidence supporting a global score was found with a second-order factor model, according to the goodness-of-fit indices: CFI = 0.93, TLI = 0.91, RMSEA = 0.073. Convergent validity was estimated at r = 0.75 and adequate discriminant validity was also found. Significant differences were found between healthy individuals (74.19 ± 13.21) and individuals with at least one chronic condition (64.29 ± 16.29), supporting adequate known-groups validity. CONCLUSIONS: WHOQOL-AGE has shown good psychometric properties in Finland, Poland, and Spain. Therefore, considerable support is provided to using the WHOQOL-AGE to measure QOL in older adults in these countries, and to compare the QOL of older and younger adults.