Human capital as a factor of growth and employment at the regional level. The case of Spain

We use statistical techniques to quantify the effects of school attainment on individual wages, participation rates and employment probabilities in Spain, and to measure the contribution of education to labour productivity at the regional level. These estimates are then combined with data on private and public expenditure on education and with information on taxes and social benefits to construct measures of the private and social returns to schooling, to explore the effects of public policies on private incentives to invest in human capital, and to analyse the long-term effects of schooling on public finances. The results are used, together with estimates of the returns to alternative assets, to draw some tentative conclusions regarding the adequacy of the aggregate investment patterns observed in the regions of Spain, and to identify changes in the design of national and EU cohesion and growth policies that may help enhance their effectiveness.

Personal redistribution and the regional allocation of public investment

How should an equity-motivated policy-marker allocate public capital (infrastructure) across regions. Should it aim at reducing interregional differences in per capita output, or at maximizing total output? Such a normative question is examined in a model where the policy-marker is exclusively concerned about personal inequality and has access to two policy instruments. (i) a personal tax-transfer system (taxation is distortionary), and (ii) the regional allocation of public investment. I show that the case for public investment as a significant instrument for interpersonal redistribution is rather weak. In the most favorable case, when the tax code is constrained to be uniform across regions, it is optimal to distort the allocation of public investment in favor of the poor regions, but only to a limited extent. The reason is that poor individuals are relatively more sensitive to public trans fers, which are maximized by allocating public investment efficiently. If! the tax code can vary across regions then the optimal policy may involve an allocation of public investment distorted in favor of the rich regions.

On the regional impact of public capital formation in Spain

The objective of this paper is to investigate, in a methodologically consistent manner, the regional effects of public capital formation and the possible existence of regional spillover effects in Spain. The empirical results are based on VAR estimates at both the aggregate and regional levels using output, employment, and private capital, as well as different measures of public capital. Empirical results suggest that public capital affects output positively at the aggregate level as well as in all but one region. For most regions, the effects of public capital installed in the region itself are important but the spillover effects induced from public capital installed elsewhere are also very important. In fact, the spillover effects account for over half of the total effects of public capital formation in Spain. Furthermore, these spillover effects have a clear geographical pattern in that they tend to be more important in the peripheral regions of the country. We also find that relative to their share of the Spanish output, the biggest beneficiaries of public capital formation are the largest regions in the country. This suggests that public capital formation has contributed to concentration of output in these regions. Finally, in terms of the effects of public capital formation on the private inputs we find that both private capital and employment are affected positively at the aggregate level as well as for most of the regions. Nevertheless, the effects on private capital seem to be larger. Also, the spillover effects are very important for private capital but not for employment. This reflects a great degree of dynamism and mobility in the capital markets as opposed to the labor markets.

Regional decomposition of CO2 emissions in the world: a cluster analysis

The purpose of this paper is to study the possible differences among countries as CO2 emitters and to examine the underlying causes of these differences. The starting point of the analysis is the Kaya identity, which allows us to break down per capita emissions in four components: an index of carbon intensity, transformation efficiency, energy intensity and social wealth. Through a cluster analysis we have identified five groups of countries with different behavior according to these four factors. One significant finding is that these groups are stable for the period analyzed. This suggests that a study based on these components can characterize quite accurately the polluting behavior of individual countries, that is to say, the classification found in the analysis could be used in other studies which look to study the behavior of countries in terms of CO2 emissions in homogeneous groups. In this sense, it supposes an advance over the traditional regional or rich-poor countries classifications .

Regional income inequalities in Europe: an updated measurement and some decomposition results

In this paper well-known summary inequality indexes are used to explore interregional income inequalities in Europe. In particular, we mainly employ Theils’population-weighted index because of its appealing properties. Two decomposition analysis are applied. First, regional inequalities are decomposed by regional subgroups (countries). Second, intertemporal inequality changes are separated into income and population changes. The main results can be summarized as follows. First, data confirm a reduction in crossregional inequality during 1982-97. Second, this reduction is basically due to real convergence among countries. Third, currently the greater part of European interregional disparities is within-country by nature, which introduce an important challenge for the European policy. Fourth, inequality changes are due mainly to income variations, population changes playing a minor role.

Knowledge, networks of cities and growth in regional urban systems

The objective of this paper is to measure the impact of different kinds of knowledge and external economies on urban growth in an intraregional context. The main hypothesis is that knowledge leads to growth, and that this knowledge is related to the existence of agglomeration and network externalities in cities. We develop a three-tage methodology: first, we measure the amount and growth of knowledge in cities using the OCDE (2003) classification and employment data; second, we identify the spatial structure of the area of analysis (networks of cities); third, we combine the Glaeser - Henderson - De Lucio models with spatial econometric specifications in order to contrast the existence of spatially static (agglomeration) and spatially dynamic (network) external economies in an urban growth model. Results suggest that higher growth rates are associated to higher levels of technology and knowledge. The growth of the different kinds of knowledge is related to local and spatial factors (agglomeration and network externalities) and each knowledge intensity shows a particular response to these factors. These results have implications for policy design, since we can forecast and intervene on local knowledge development paths.

La Inversión española en el extranjero (1993-2005). Origen regional: análisis y evolución

A nivel mundial, en las últimas tres décadas, la inversión directa ha experimentado un desarrollo espectacular. Los datos de la UNCTAD muestran como, entre 1970 y 2005, los flujos de inversión emitida crecieron más de un quinientos por cien. A pesar que, para el conjunto del periodo estos incrementos inversión fueron continuados, hay que diferenciar cuatro etapas. Hasta principios de los ochenta, el volumen no era excesivamente elevado, pero las tasas de incremento mostraban una tendencia cada vez mayor en el desarrollo de la inversión a nivel mundial. Entre mediados de los ochenta y noventa, los flujos empezaron a crecer de forma más notable y sostenida. El boom inversor se produjo, sobretodo, a partir de los cuatro últimos años del siglo veinte, cuando la inversión creció a un ritmo espectacular; con tasas de incremento anual que en algunos años (como el de 1999) rozaron el sesenta por ciento. Tras el inicio del siglo XXI, la inversión directa se ralentizó. Entre los años 2001 y 2005 las salidas de capital disminuyeron y, aunque se mantuvieron en niveles ciertamente altos en comparación con el conjunto del periodo, fueron sensiblemente más bajos que los registrados a finales de la década de los noventa. El incremento general de este tipo de movimientos internacionales de capital, iniciado, sobretodo, a partir de la década de los ochenta y eclosionado a mediados de los noventa tuvo origen en un contexto de progresiva y paulatina liberalización de las relaciones económicas a nivel mundial; en transformaciones institucionales de gran calado en prácticamente todas las economías del mundo, y en un contexto de fuerte crecimiento económico impulsado, en gran parte, por el desarrollo tecnológico de la llamada "nueva economía".

Inversión en infraestructuras, crecimiento y convergencia regional

This paper presents estimates of the contribution of infrastructure investment to the growth of output and employment in Spain and its regions and investigates the impact of this factor on the process of regional convergence in income per capita during the period 1965-2004.

El Orden regional de Asia oriental en materia de seguridad

El trabajo analiza los procesos de gestación y evolución del orden regional de Asia oriental en materia de seguridad, así como la estructura normativa del mismo. En estos procesos las iniciativas bilaterales de los Estados tradicionalmente han jugado un papel determinante. Las últimas dos décadas, no obstante, han sido testigo del creciente peso de otros actores no estatales en el marco del llamado second track y del impulso de iniciativas multilaterales. En cuanto a la estructura de este orden, por otra parte, ésta se compone de unos principios y normas constitucionales y de unas instituciones fundamentales que delimitan un orden diferente de y compatible con el orden internacional actual.

El Nuevo acuerdo de financiación regional: un análisis de urgencia

El pasado 15 de julio el Consejo de Política Fiscal y Financiera (CPPF) aprobó un nuevo acuerdo de financiación para las comunidades autónomas de régimen común. El documento en el que se recoge el acuerdo no es precisamente un prodigio de claridad expositiva y describe además un modelo complejo. Como resultado de ambos factores, las descripciones del nuevo sistema que han aparecido en la prensa reciente y en el material "informativo" distribuido por algunas administraciones resultan bastante confusas y no reflejan correctamente, a mi entender, el funcionamiento del modelo o su previsible incidencia sobre la distribución territorial de los recursos públicos. Con el fin de facilitar un debate más informado sobre el tema, en este trabajo se intenta clarificar el funcionamiento del nuevo modelo, ofreciendo una descripción sistemática del mismo, un análisis de sus propiedades dinámicas y una primera estimación de sus resultados iniciales. Por otra parte, en el trabajo se realiza también una valoración crítica del nuevo sistema y se identifican ciertos aspectos del mismo que pueden ser problemáticos. Algunos de ellos son de carácter técnico y podrían corregirse durante el proceso de elaboración de la normativa en la que ha de plasmarse el nuevo acuerdo sin alterar la esencia de éste.

El Nuevo acuerdo de financiación regional: un análisis de urgencia ADENDA

This note contains some addenda to a recent paper (de la Fuente, 2009) that analyzed the new Spanish system of regional financing on the basis of the agreement between the central and regional Governments reached last July. The note updates my previous discussion after examining the bill that has been recently sent to Parliament by the Government and identifies some technical problems of the Government's proposal.

Inter-regional redistribution through infrastructure investment: tactical or programmatic?

In this paper we analyze the effects of both tactical and programmatic politics on the inter-regional allocation of infrastructure investment. We use a panel of data for the Spanish electoral districts during the period 1964-2004 to estimate an equation where investment depends both on economic and political variables. The results show that tactical politics do matter since, after controlling for economic traits, the districts with more ‘Political power’ still receive more investment. These districts are those where the incumbents’ Vote margin of victory/ defeat in the past election is low, where the Marginal seat price is low, where there is Partisan alignment between the executives at the central and regional layers of government, and where there are Pivotal regional parties which are influential in the formation of the central executive. However, the results also show that programmatic politics matter, since inter-regional redistribution (measured as the elasticity of investment to per capita income) is shown to increase with the arrival of the Democracy and EU Funds, with Left governments, and to decrease the higher is the correlation between a measure of ‘Political power’ and per capita income.

Human capital spillovers, productivity and regional convergence in Spain

This paper analyses the differential impact of human capital, in terms of different levels of schooling, on regional productivity and convergence. The potential existence of geographical spillovers of human capital is also considered by applying spatial panel data techniques. The empirical analysis of Spanish provinces between 1980 and 2007 confirms the positive impact of human capital on regional productivity and convergence, but reveals no evidence of any positive geographical spillovers of human capital. In fact, in some specifications the spatial lag presented by tertiary studies has a negative effect on the variables under consideration.

Los Actores económicos y la dimensión regional : la Cambra de Comerç de Barcelona y Foment del Treball Nacional (1997-2007)

Esta investigación trata de esclarecer qué opinión merece y cómo repercute la existencia de gobiernos regionales en las organizaciones empresariales de ámbito regional. Ello lo observamos mediante el análisis de dos organizaciones empresariales catalanas: Foment del Treball Nacional y la Cambra de Comerç, Indústria i Navegació de Barcelona. Desafortunadamente, como sucede para el caso español, tras más de veinticinco años de experiencia regional existe un vacío en la literatura académica, tan sólo unos pocos estudios referenciados, tanto de organizaciones empresariales regionales como de su opinión sobre el Estado de las Autonomías y sus implicaciones para un determinado modelo económico y proyecto político.