Gerontocracy, retirement, and social security

Why are the old politically successful? We build a simple interest group model in which political pressure is time-intensive, showing that in the political competitive equilibrium each group lobbies for government policies that lower their own value of time but the old do so to a greater extent and as a result are net gainers from the political process. What distinguishes the elderly from other political groups (and what makes them more succesful) is that they have lower labor productivity and/or that we are all likely to become elderly at some point, while we are relatively unlikely to change gender, race, sexual orientation, or even ocupation, The model has a variety of implications for the design of social security programs, which we test using data from the Social Security Administration. For example, the model predicts that social security programs with retirement incentives are larger and that the old are more "single-minded" in their politics, implications which we verify using cross-country government finance data and cross-country political participation surveys. Finally, we show that the forced savings programs intended to "reform" the social security system may increase the amount of intergenerational redistribution. As a model for evaluating policy reforms, ours has the attractive feature that reforms must be time time consistent from a political point of view rather than a public interest point of view.

Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank(two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economyhave asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. Weassume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct fordifferent sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model ofthe economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs througha statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study theshort-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularlywith respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learningcan generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behaviorof the variables in the model in a significant way. Our simulations do not convergeto a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source thatinvalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identifya novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communicationcan be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified.

The Farm, the city, and the emergence of social security

We study the social, demographic and economic origins of social security. The data for the U.S. and for a cross section of countries suggest that urbanization and industrialization are associated with the rise of social insurance. We describe an OLG model in which demographics, technology, and social security are linked together in a political economy equilibrium. In the model economy, there are two locations (sectors), the farm (agricultural) and the city (industrial) and the decision to migrate from rural to urban locations is endogenous and linked to productivity differences between the two locations and survival probabilities. Farmers rely on land inheritance for their old age and do not support a pay-as-you-go social security system. With structural change, people migrate to the city, the land loses its importance and support for social security arises. We show that a calibrated version of this economy, where social security taxes are determined by majority voting, is consistent with the historical transformation in the United States.

Pay-as-you-go social security and the distribution of bequests

This paper studies the impact of an unfunded social security system on the distribution of bequests in a framework where savings are due both by life cycle and by random altruistic motivations. We show that the impact of social security on the distribution of bequests depends crucially on the importance of the bequest motive in explaining savings behavior. If the bequest motive is strong, then an increase in the social security tax raises the bequests left by altruistic parents. On the other hand, when the importance of bequests in motivating savings is sufficiently low, theincrease in the social security tax could result in a reduction of the bequests left by altruistic parents under some conditions on the attitude of individuals toward risk and on the relative returns associated with private saving and social security. Some implications concerning the transitional effects of introducing an unfunded social security scheme are also discussed.

Social security and democracy

Many political economic theories use and emphasize the process of votingin their explanation of the growth of Social Security, governmentspending, and other public policies. But is there an empirical connectionbetween democracy and Social Security program size or design? Using somenew international data sets to produce both country-panel econometricestimates as well as case studies of South American and southern Europeancountries, we find that Social Security policy varies according toeconomic and demographic factors, but that very different politicalhistories can result in the same Social Security policy. We find littlepartial effect of democracy on the size of Social Security budgets, onhow those budgets are allocated, or how economic and demographic factorsaffect Social Security. If there is any observed difference, democraciesspend a little less of their GDP on Social Security, grow their budgetsa bit more slowly, and cap their payroll tax more often, than doeconomically and demographically similar nondemocracies. Democracies andnondemocracies are equally likely to have benefit formulas inducingretirement and, conditional on GDP per capita, equally likely to induceretirement with a retirement test vs. an earnings test.

Personality, social values, and marital satisfaction as predictors of parents’ rearing styles

Los estilos de crianza parentales pueden afectar la conducta y socialización de los adolescentes, por lo que es de interés conocer cómo algunas variables psicológicas de los padres se relacionan con los estilos de crianza. Este estudio tiene el objetivo de analizar los estilos de crianza de los padres, valores sociales (prestigio social, orden, benevolencia, y conservadurismo-liberalismo), los cinco grandes factores de personalidad, y la satisfacción de pareja (acuerdo general, afecto, satisfacción, y cohesión) en los padres de adolescentes. Este es un estudio prospectivo basado en método de análisis correlacional. Se encontró que los estilos educativos definidos por el cariño y aceptación se relacionan con los rasgos de personalidad como responsabilidad y estabilidad emocional, alta satisfacción de pareja y preferencia por valores prosociales. Al contrario, los estilos de crianza de sobreprotección y favoritismo se relacionan con baja amabilidad y baja apertura el poco ajuste de pareja con falta de cohesión y valores sociales definidos por falta de benevolencia y preferencia por valores de prestigio social.

Confirmatory factor analysis of an inventory of perception of insecurity and fear of crime

This paper focuses on the study of the factorial structure of an inventory to estimate the subjective perception of insecurity and fear of crime. Made from the review of the literature on the subject and the results obtained in previous works, this factor structure shows that this attitude towards insecurity and fear of crime is identified through a number of latent factors which are schematically summarized in (a) personal safety, (b) the perception of personal and social control, (c) the presence of threatening people or situations, (d) the processes of identity and space appropriation, (e) satisfaction with the environment, and (f) the environmental and the use of space. Such factors are relevant dimensions to analyze the phenomenon. Method: A sample of 571 participants in a neighborhood of Barcelona was evaluated with the proposed inventory, which yielded data from the distributions of all the items provided. The administration was conducted by researchers specially trained for it and the results were analyzed by using standard procedures in the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) from the hypothesized theoretical structure. The analysis was performed by decatypes according to the different response scales prepared in the inventory and their ordinal nature, and by estimating the polychoric correlation coefficients. The results show an acceptable fit of the proposed model, an appropriate behavior of the residuals and statistically significant estimates of the factor loadings. This would indicate the goodness of the proposed factor structure.

Electrical signature of modern and ancient tectonic processes in the crust of the Atlas mountains of Morocco.

The Atlas Mountains in Morocco are considered as type examples of intracontinental chains, with high topography that contrasts with moderate crustal shortening and thickening. Whereas recent geological studies and geodynamic modeling have suggested the existence of dynamic topography to explain this apparent contradiction, there is a lack of modern geophysical data at the crustal scale to corroborate this hypothesis. Newly-acquired magnetotelluric data image the electrical resistivity distribution of the crust from the Middle Atlas to the Anti-Atlas, crossing the tabular Moulouya Plain and the High Atlas. All the units show different and unique electrical signatures throughout the crust reflecting the tectonic history of development of each one. In the upper crust electrical resistivity values may be associated to sediment sequences in the Moulouya and Anti-Atlas and to crustal scale fault systems in the High Atlas developed during the Cenozoic times. In the lower crust the low resistivity anomaly found below the Mouluya plain, together with other geophysical (low velocity anomaly, lack of earthquakes and minimum Bouguer anomaly) and geochemical (Neogene-Quaternary intraplate alkaline volcanic fields) evidence, infer the existence of a small degree of partial melt at the base of the lower crust. The low resistivity anomaly found below the Anti-Atlas may be associated with a relict subduction of Precambrian oceanic sediments, or to precipitated minerals during the release of fluids from the mantle during the accretion of the Anti-Atlas to the West African Supercontinent during the Panafrican orogeny ca. 685 Ma).

From room for books to room for users: an old infantry barrack as an answer to the lack of space

At the beginning of the 21st century, some Catalan university libraries detected a need stemming from the lack of space and the reconversion of physical libraries within the new European educational panorama. With the same cooperative spirit that characterized previous CBUC (Consortium of Academic Libraries of Catalonia) programs and services, the Consortium set in motion a project to address this need. An initial study was commissioned in 2002, and in 2003 a suitable building (old infantry barracks) was found in Lleida. The official opening took place in 2008. GEPA (Guaranteed Space for the Preservation of Access) facility is a cooperative repository, whose objectives are to store and preserve low use documents, ensuring their future access when needed, to convert room for books into room for library users, and doing it saving both space and money. The paper presents a brief historical introduction about the physical management of collections in libraries, and a short overview about high density library repositories all over the world, as an answer to the pressing problem of lack of spaces. The main goals of the communication are to comment the architectural project and its librarian issues, and to show how the GEPA facility allowed to change the spaces in university libraries in Catalonia. On the one hand, the paper deals with the selection of an old building to be renovated, the determination of the librarian needs, the compact shelving system chosen to store the documents in the building, the relation between physical space and information management, and the logistics involved in the load of low use documents from the libraries into the facility. On the other hand, we will show some examples of physical changes in Catalan libraries after large loads of documents to GEPA.

Electrical signature of modern and ancient tectonic processes in the crust of the Atlas mountains of Morocco.

The Atlas Mountains in Morocco are considered as type examples of intracontinental chains, with high topography that contrasts with moderate crustal shortening and thickening. Whereas recent geological studies and geodynamic modeling have suggested the existence of dynamic topography to explain this apparent contradiction, there is a lack of modern geophysical data at the crustal scale to corroborate this hypothesis. Newly-acquired magnetotelluric data image the electrical resistivity distribution of the crust from the Middle Atlas to the Anti-Atlas, crossing the tabular Moulouya Plain and the High Atlas. All the units show different and unique electrical signatures throughout the crust reflecting the tectonic history of development of each one. In the upper crust electrical resistivity values may be associated to sediment sequences in the Moulouya and Anti-Atlas and to crustal scale fault systems in the High Atlas developed during the Cenozoic times. In the lower crust the low resistivity anomaly found below the Mouluya plain, together with other geophysical (low velocity anomaly, lack of earthquakes and minimum Bouguer anomaly) and geochemical (Neogene-Quaternary intraplate alkaline volcanic fields) evidence, infer the existence of a small degree of partial melt at the base of the lower crust. The low resistivity anomaly found below the Anti-Atlas may be associated with a relict subduction of Precambrian oceanic sediments, or to precipitated minerals during the release of fluids from the mantle during the accretion of the Anti-Atlas to the West African Supercontinent during the Panafrican orogeny ca. 685 Ma).

La Inspiració de Van Gogh

La Inspiració de Van Gogh ofereix una reflexió entre les similituds i coincidències de dues societats (la societat de finals del sXIX, i la societat actual) separades pel temps, però unides per la necessitat de trobar una sortida a tanta incomprensió artística i social.

Social security, retirement, and the single-mindedness of the electorate

We propose a positive theory that is consistent with two important featuresof social security programs around the world: (1) they redistributeincome from young to old and (2) they induce retirement. We construct avoting model that includes a political campaign or debate prior to theelection. The model incorporates single-mindedness of the groups that donot work: while the workers divide their political capital between their age concerns and occupational concerns , the retired concentrate alltheir political capital to support their age group. In our model, theelderly end up getting transfers from the government (paid by the young)and distortionary labor income taxes induce the retirement of the elderly.In addition, our model predicts that occupational groups that work morewill tend to have more political power. The opposite is true fornon-occupational groups (such as the elderly). We provide some evidencethat supports these additional predictions.

The Security Council and the Legitimacy of the Use of Force: Legal, Normative, and Social Aspects.

Tal i com estableix la Carta de les Nacions Unides, el Consell de Seguretat determina l’existència d’una amenaça a la pau, un trencament de la pau o un acte d’agressió i decideix les mesures que han de fer-se servir per restaurar la pau i seguretat internacionals, també l’ús de la força. L’objectiu d’aquest article és explorar la legitimitat d’aquest ús de la força. Amb aquest objectiu, el text parteix d’una definició centrada en les seves dimensions legal, normativa i social. En segon lloc, s’analitzarà com aquestes dimensions estan representades als debats del Consell de Seguretat de la guerra d’Irak de 2003, un dels usos de la força més controvertits i que més debat ha generat als darrers anys. Finalment, l’anàlisi proposat permet treure algunes conclusions sobre les bases canviants de la legitimitat de l’ús de la força.

Social Security in Theory and Practice (II): Efficiency Theories, Narrative Theories, and Implications for Reform

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forces create and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (1999b) document several of the internationally and historically common features of social security programs, and explore "political" theories of Social Security. This paper discusses the "efficiency theories", which view creation of the SS program as a full of partial solution to some market failure. Efficiency explanations of social security include the "SS as welfare for the elderly" the "retirement increases productivity to optimally manage human capital externalities", "optimal retirement insurance", the "prodigal father problem", the "misguided Keynesian", the "optimal longevity insurance", the "government economizing transaction costs", and the "return on human capital investment". We also analyze four "narrative" theories of social security: the "chain letter theory", the "lump of labor theory", the "monopoly capitalism theory", and the "Sub-but-Nearly-Optimal policy response to private pensions theory". The political and efficiency explanations are compared with the international and historical facts and used to derive implications for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan. Most of the explanations suggest that forced savings does not increase welfare, and may decrease it.