Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

Lack of CB1 receptor activity impairs serotonergic negative feedback

Serotonergic and endocannabinoid systems are important substrates for the control of emotional behavior and growing evidence show an involvement in the pathophysiology of mood disorders. In the present study, the absence of the activity of the CB1 cannabinoid receptor impaired serotonergic negative feedback in mice. Thus, in vivo microdialysis experiments revealed increased basal 5-HT extracellular levels and attenuated fluoxetine-induced increase of 5-HT extracellular levels in the prefrontal cortex of CB1 knockout compared to wild-type mice. These observations could be related to the significant reduction in the 5-HT transporter binding site density detected in frontal cortex and hippocampus of CB1 knockout mice. The lack of CB1 receptor also altered some 5-HT receptors related to the 5-HT feedback. Extracellular recordings in the dorsal raphe nucleus revealed that the genetic and pharmacological blockade of CB1 receptor induced a 5-HT1A autoreceptor functional desensitization. In situ hybridization studies showed a reduction in the expression of the 5-HT2C receptor within several brain areas related to the control of the emotional responses, such as the dorsal raphe nucleus, the nucleus accumbens and the paraventricular nucleus of the hypothalamus, whereas an overexpression was observed in the CA3 area of the ventral hippocampus. These results reveal that the lack of CB1 receptor induces a facilitation of the activity of serotonergic neurons in the dorsal raphe nucleus by altering different components of the 5-HT feedback as well as an increase in 5-HT extracellular levels in the prefrontal cortex in mice.

Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank(two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economyhave asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. Weassume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct fordifferent sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model ofthe economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs througha statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study theshort-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularlywith respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learningcan generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behaviorof the variables in the model in a significant way. Our simulations do not convergeto a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source thatinvalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identifya novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communicationcan be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified.

Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerialbehavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the onehand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback ondecisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issuesin the context of everyday decision making, use was made of the ESM(Experience Sampling Method) to sample decisions taken by undergraduatesand business executives. For several days, participants received 4 or 5SMS messages daily (on their mobile telephones) at random moments at whichpoint they completed brief questionnaires about their current decisionmaking activities. Issues considered here include differences between thetypes of decisions faced by the two groups, their structure, feedback(received and expected), and confidence in decisions taken as well as inthe validity of feedback. No relation was found between confidence indecisions and whether participants received or expected to receivefeedback on those decisions. In addition, although participants areclearly aware that feedback can provide both confirming and disconfirming evidence, their ability to specify appropriatefeedback is imperfect. Finally, difficulties experienced inusing the ESM are discussed as are possibilities for further researchusing this methodology.

New mechanisms for lack of equipartition of energy

We describe several mechanisms that prevent equipartition of energy in mechanical systems. In certain regimes, we present a quantitative prediction of the relative abundance of orbits exhibiting these mechanisms. This quantitative prediction is confirmed in numerical experiments.

Phylogenetic studies in Gnaphalieae (Compositae): The genera Phagnalon Cass. and Aliella Qaiser & Lack

The precise generic delimitation of Aliella andPhagnalon, and their closest relatives within the Gnaphalieae are discussed in this review. Among the main results obtained, wehave found that the genera Aliella and Phagnalon are nested withinthe “Relhania clade” and Anisothrix, Athrixia and Pentatrichia aretheir closest relatives. Macowania is also part of the “Relhaniaclade”, whereas the subtribal affinities of Philyrophyllum liewithin the “crown radiation clade”. The monophyly of Aliellaand Phagnalon is not supported statistically. In addition,Aliella appears to be paraphylethic in most of the analysesperformed. The resulting phylogeny suggests an African origin forthe ancestor of Aliella and Phagnalon and identifies three mainclades within Phagnalon that constitute the following naturalgroups on a geographic basis: (1) the Irano-Turanian clade; (2) the Mediterranean-Macaronesian clade; and (3) the Yemen-Ethiopian clade. Some endemics to Yemen and Ethiopia appeared merged in the Mediterranean-Macaronesian clade, providing new evidence of the phytogeographical links betweenMacaronesia, Eastern Africa and Southern Arabia. Incongruities between thechloroplast and nuclear molecular data and the lack of resolution in some clades mayindicate that hybridization could have played an important role in the evolution anddiversification of both Phagnalon and Aliella.

Lack of support for the association between facial shape and aggression: a reappraisal based on a worldwide population genetics perspective

Antisocial and criminal behaviors are multifactorial traits whose interpretation relies on multiple disciplines. Since these interpretations may have social, moral and legal implications, a constant review of the evidence is necessary before any scientific claim is considered as truth. A recent study proposed that men with wider faces relative to facial height (fWHR) are more likely to develop unethical behaviour mediated by a psychological sense of power. This research was based on reports suggesting that sexual dimorphism and selection would be responsible for a correlation between fWHR and aggression. Here we show that 4,960 individuals from 94 modern human populations belonging to a vast array of genetic and cultural contexts do not display significant amounts of fWHR sexual dimorphism. Further analyses using populations with associated ethnographical records as well as samples of male prisoners of the Mexico City Federal Penitentiary condemned by crimes of variable level of inter-personal aggression (homicide, robbery, and minor faults) did not show significant evidence, suggesting that populations/individuals with higher levels of bellicosity, aggressive behaviour, or power-mediated behaviour display greater fWHR. Finally, a regression analysis of fWHR on individual"s fitness showed no significant correlation between this facial trait and reproductive success. Overall, our results suggest that facial attributes are poor predictors of aggressive behaviour, or at least, that sexual selection was weak enough to leave a signal on patterns of between- and within-sex and population facial variation.

From room for books to room for users: an old infantry barrack as an answer to the lack of space

At the beginning of the 21st century, some Catalan university libraries detected a need stemming from the lack of space and the reconversion of physical libraries within the new European educational panorama. With the same cooperative spirit that characterized previous CBUC (Consortium of Academic Libraries of Catalonia) programs and services, the Consortium set in motion a project to address this need. An initial study was commissioned in 2002, and in 2003 a suitable building (old infantry barracks) was found in Lleida. The official opening took place in 2008. GEPA (Guaranteed Space for the Preservation of Access) facility is a cooperative repository, whose objectives are to store and preserve low use documents, ensuring their future access when needed, to convert room for books into room for library users, and doing it saving both space and money. The paper presents a brief historical introduction about the physical management of collections in libraries, and a short overview about high density library repositories all over the world, as an answer to the pressing problem of lack of spaces. The main goals of the communication are to comment the architectural project and its librarian issues, and to show how the GEPA facility allowed to change the spaces in university libraries in Catalonia. On the one hand, the paper deals with the selection of an old building to be renovated, the determination of the librarian needs, the compact shelving system chosen to store the documents in the building, the relation between physical space and information management, and the logistics involved in the load of low use documents from the libraries into the facility. On the other hand, we will show some examples of physical changes in Catalan libraries after large loads of documents to GEPA.

Polygenic determinants of white matter volume derived from GWAS lack reproducibility in a replicate sample

A recent publication reported an exciting polygenic effect of schizophrenia (SCZ) risk variants, identified by a large genome-wide association study (GWAS), on total brain and white matter volumes in schizophrenic patients and, even more prominently, in healthy subjects. The aim of the present work was to replicate and then potentially extend these findings. According to the original publication, polygenic risk scores using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) information of SCZ GWAS (polygenic SCZ risk scores; PSS) were calculated in 122 healthy subjects, enrolled in a structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study. These scores were computed based on P-values and odds ratios available through the Psychiatric GWAS Consortium. In addition, polygenic white matter scores (PWM) were calculated, using the respective SNP subset in the original publication. None of the polygenic scores, either PSS or PWM, were found to be associated with total brain, white matter or gray matter volume in our replicate sample. Minor differences between the original and the present study that might have contributed to lack of reproducibility (but unlikely explain it fully), are number of subjects, ethnicity, age distribution, array technology, SNP imputation quality and MRI scanner type. In contrast to the original publication, our results do not reveal the slightest signal of association of the described sets of GWAS-identified SCZ risk variants with brain volumes in adults. Caution is indicated in interpreting studies building on polygenic risk scores without replication sample.