Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Damn Platonism! Concrete Persons' Skin, Flesh and Bodies: Three Phases of a Won Battle in Miquel Àngel Riera's poetry

The aim of this article is to show how, throughout M. A. Riera's poetry, an evident anti-metaphysical sensibility can be easily detected, which in its turn makes the poet to praise concrete person's skin, flesh and bodies, thus avoiding any personal Platonic or idealistic experience of human love. In the author's opinion, an accurate reading of his poems makes us discover Plato and Platonism as one of the great responsible thinkers for the contempt of carnal love, which has been undoubtedly the origin of a real human pain as a result of denying the somatic side of eros.

Platonic shadows and lights in Luis Cernuda's poetry: their didactic use

The aim of this article is to show a wide range of lights and shadows in Luis Cernuda's poetry as images which have a specific reference -in spite of not being mentioned-, that is, the Platonic image of the cave. It is thanks to the images that the poet shows us his ideal world, in which shadows symbolize the beautiful, perfect and everlasting world in which Luis Cenuda needs to believe. Once more, it deals with that well-known tension between reality and desire which defines the essence of his poetry.

Time-related improvement of survival in resectable gastric cancer: the role of Japanese-style gastrectomy with D2 lymphadenectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy

Background: We investigated the change of prognosis in resected gastric cancer (RGC) patients and the role of radical surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: We retrospectively analyze the outcome of 426 consecutive patients from 1975 to 2002, divided into 2 time-periods (TP) cohort: Before 1990 (TP1, n = 207) and 1990 or after (TP2; n= 219). Partial gastrectomy and D1-lymphadenetomy was predominant in TP1 and total gastrectomy with D2-lymphadenectomy it was in TP2. Adjuvant chemotherapy consisted of mitomycin C (MMC), 10¿20 mg/m2 iv 4 courses or MMC plus Tegafur 500 mg/m2 for 6 months. Results: Positive nodes were similar in TP2/TP1 patients with 56%/59% respectively. Total gastrectomy was done in 56%/45% of TP2/TP1 respectively. Two-drug adjuvant chemotherapy was administered in 65%/18% of TP2/TP1 respectively. Survival at 5 years was 66% for TP2 versus 42%for TP1 patients (p < 0.0001). Survival by stages II, IIIA y IIIB for TP2 versus TP1 patients was 70 vs. 51% (p = 0.0132); 57 vs. 22% (p = 0.0008) y 30 vs. 15% (p = 0.2315) respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age, stage of disease and period of treatment were independent variables. Conclusion: The global prognosis and that of some stages have improved in recent years with case RGC patients treated with surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy.

The importance of myth in contemporary art: myth, poetry and women

This project is intended to prove the prevalent importance of myth in contemporary art and, more specifically, to highlight how myth and poetry have shaped and reflected ideas of womanhood over time. A selection of significant literary periods, authors and works from the Renaissance to our days have been chosen in order to provide a wide scope of the evolution that the portrayal of women has undergone. Special attention has been paid to the way in which a group of selected poets have contributed to the construction and deconstruction of traditional Judeo-Christian and Greco-Roman myths strongly attached to patterns of male dominance.