Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Fighting against Malaria: Prevent wars while waiting for the "miraculous" vaccine

The World Health Organization estimates that 300 million clinical cases of malaria occur annually and observed that during the 80's and part of the 90's its incidence increased. In this paper we explore the influence of refugees from civil wars on the incidence of malaria in the refugee-receiving countries. Using civil wars as an instrumental variable we show that for each 1,000 refugees there are between 2,000 and 2,700 cases of malaria in the refugee receiving country. On average 13% of the cases of malaria reported by the WHO are caused by forced migration as a consequence of civil wars.

Dendritic cells exposed to MVA-based HIV-1 vaccine induce highly functional HIV-1-specific CD8+ T cell responses in HIV-1-infected individuals

Currently, MVA virus vectors carrying HIV-1 genes are being developed as HIV-1/AIDS prophylactic/therapeutic vaccines. Nevertheless, little is known about the impact of these vectors on human dendritic cells (DC) and their capacity to present HIV-1 antigens to human HIV-specific T cells. This study aimed to characterize the interaction of MVA and MVA expressing the HIV-1 genes Env-Gag-Pol-Nef of clade B (referred to as MVA-B) in human monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MDDC) and the subsequent processes of HIV-1 antigen presentation and activation of memory HIV-1-specific T lymphocytes. For these purposes, we performed ex vivo assays with MDDC and autologous lymphocytes from asymptomatic HIV-infected patients. Infection of MDDC with MVA-B or MVA, at the optimal dose of 0.3 PFU/MDDC, induced by itself a moderate degree of maturation of MDDC, involving secretion of cytokines and chemokines (IL1-ra, IL-7, TNF-α, IL-6, IL-12, IL-15, IL-8, MCP-1, MIP-1α, MIP-1β, RANTES, IP-10, MIG, and IFN-α). MDDC infected with MVA or MVA-B and following a period of 48 h or 72 h of maturation were able to migrate toward CCL19 or CCL21 chemokine gradients. MVA-B infection induced apoptosis of the infected cells and the resulting apoptotic bodies were engulfed by the uninfected MDDC, which cross-presented HIV-1 antigens to autologous CD8+ T lymphocytes. MVA-B-infected MDDC co-cultured with autologous T lymphocytes induced a highly functional HIV-specific CD8+ T cell response including proliferation, secretion of IFN-γ, IL-2, TNF-α, MIP-1β, MIP-1α, RANTES and IL-6, and strong cytotoxic activity against autologous HIV-1-infected CD4+ T lymphocytes. These results evidence the adjuvant role of the vector itself (MVA) and support the clinical development of prophylactic and therapeutic anti-HIV vaccines based on MVA-B.

Time-related improvement of survival in resectable gastric cancer: the role of Japanese-style gastrectomy with D2 lymphadenectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy

Background: We investigated the change of prognosis in resected gastric cancer (RGC) patients and the role of radical surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: We retrospectively analyze the outcome of 426 consecutive patients from 1975 to 2002, divided into 2 time-periods (TP) cohort: Before 1990 (TP1, n = 207) and 1990 or after (TP2; n= 219). Partial gastrectomy and D1-lymphadenetomy was predominant in TP1 and total gastrectomy with D2-lymphadenectomy it was in TP2. Adjuvant chemotherapy consisted of mitomycin C (MMC), 10¿20 mg/m2 iv 4 courses or MMC plus Tegafur 500 mg/m2 for 6 months. Results: Positive nodes were similar in TP2/TP1 patients with 56%/59% respectively. Total gastrectomy was done in 56%/45% of TP2/TP1 respectively. Two-drug adjuvant chemotherapy was administered in 65%/18% of TP2/TP1 respectively. Survival at 5 years was 66% for TP2 versus 42%for TP1 patients (p < 0.0001). Survival by stages II, IIIA y IIIB for TP2 versus TP1 patients was 70 vs. 51% (p = 0.0132); 57 vs. 22% (p = 0.0008) y 30 vs. 15% (p = 0.2315) respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age, stage of disease and period of treatment were independent variables. Conclusion: The global prognosis and that of some stages have improved in recent years with case RGC patients treated with surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy.

Dendritic cells exposed to MVA-based HIV-1 vaccine induce highly functional HIV-1-specific CD8+ T cell responses in HIV-1-infected individuals

Currently, MVA virus vectors carrying HIV-1 genes are being developed as HIV-1/AIDS prophylactic/therapeutic vaccines. Nevertheless, little is known about the impact of these vectors on human dendritic cells (DC) and their capacity to present HIV-1 antigens to human HIV-specific T cells. This study aimed to characterize the interaction of MVA and MVA expressing the HIV-1 genes Env-Gag-Pol-Nef of clade B (referred to as MVA-B) in human monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MDDC) and the subsequent processes of HIV-1 antigen presentation and activation of memory HIV-1-specific T lymphocytes. For these purposes, we performed ex vivo assays with MDDC and autologous lymphocytes from asymptomatic HIV-infected patients. Infection of MDDC with MVA-B or MVA, at the optimal dose of 0.3 PFU/MDDC, induced by itself a moderate degree of maturation of MDDC, involving secretion of cytokines and chemokines (IL1-ra, IL-7, TNF-α, IL-6, IL-12, IL-15, IL-8, MCP-1, MIP-1α, MIP-1β, RANTES, IP-10, MIG, and IFN-α). MDDC infected with MVA or MVA-B and following a period of 48 h or 72 h of maturation were able to migrate toward CCL19 or CCL21 chemokine gradients. MVA-B infection induced apoptosis of the infected cells and the resulting apoptotic bodies were engulfed by the uninfected MDDC, which cross-presented HIV-1 antigens to autologous CD8+ T lymphocytes. MVA-B-infected MDDC co-cultured with autologous T lymphocytes induced a highly functional HIV-specific CD8+ T cell response including proliferation, secretion of IFN-γ, IL-2, TNF-α, MIP-1β, MIP-1α, RANTES and IL-6, and strong cytotoxic activity against autologous HIV-1-infected CD4+ T lymphocytes. These results evidence the adjuvant role of the vector itself (MVA) and support the clinical development of prophylactic and therapeutic anti-HIV vaccines based on MVA-B.

Auditing the management of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks: the need for a tool

Public health activities, especially infectious disease control, depend on effective teamwork. We present the results of a pilot audit questionnaire aimed at assessing the quality of public health services in the management of VPD outbreaks. Audit questionnaire with three main areas indicators (structure, process and results) was developed. Guidelines were set and each indicator was assessed by three auditors. Differences in indicator scores according to median size of outbreaks were determined by ANOVA (significance at p (greater than or equal to) 0.05). Of 154 outbreaks; eighteen indicators had a satisfactory mean score, indicator "updated guidelines" and "timely reporting" had a poor mean score (2.84±106 and 2.44±1.67, respectively). Statistically significant differences were found according to outbreak size, in the indicators "availability of guidelines/protocol updated less than 3 years ago" (p = 0.03) and "days needed for outbreak control" (p = 0.04). Improving availability of updated guidelines, enhancing timely reporting and adequate recording of control procedures taken is needed to allow for management assessment and improvement.

RTS,S/AS02A malaria vaccine does not induce parasite CSP T cell epitope selection and reduces multiplicity of infection

Objective: The candidate malaria vaccine RTS,S/AS02A is a recombinant protein containing part of the circumsporozoite protein (CSP) sequence of Plasmodium falciparum, linked to the hepatitis B surface antigen and formulated in the proprietary adjuvant system AS02A. In a recent trial conducted in children younger than age five in southern Mozambique, the vaccinedemonstrated significant and sustained efficacy against both infection and clinical disease. In a follow-up study to the main trial, breakthrough infections identified in the trial were examined to determine whether the distribution of csp sequences was affected by the vaccine and to measure the multiplicity of infecting parasite genotypes. Design: P. falciparum DNA from isolates collected during the trial was used for genotype studies. Setting: The main trial was carried out in the Manhiça district, Maputo province, Mozambique, between April 2003 and May 2004. Participants: Children from the two cohorts of the main trial provided parasite isolates as follows: children from Cohort 1 who were admitted to hospital with clinical malaria; children from Cohort 1 who were parasite-positive in a cross-sectional survey at study month 8.5; children from Cohort 2 identified as parasite-positive during follow-up by active detection of infection. Outcome: Divergence of DNA sequence encoding the CSP T cell-epitope region sequence from that of the vaccine sequence was measured in 521 isolates. The number of distinct P. falciparum genotypes was also determined. Results: We found no evidence that parasite genotypes from children in the RTS,S/AS02A arm were more divergent than those receiving control vaccines. For Cohort 1 (survey at studymonth 8.5) and Cohort 2, infections in the vaccine group contained significantly fewer genotypes than those in the control group, (p 1/4 0.035, p 1/4 0.006), respectively, for the two cohorts. This was not the case for children in Cohort 1 who were admitted to hospital (p 1/4 0.478). Conclusions: RTS,S/AS02A did not select for genotypes encoding divergent T cell epitopes in the C-terminal region of CSP in this trial. In both cohorts, there was a modest reduction in the mean number of parasite genotypes harboured by vaccinated children compared with controls, but only among those with asymptomatic infections.

Is the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine useful in preventing community-acquired pneumonia?

Although bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia is the most severe form of pneumonia, non-bacteremic forms are much more frequent. Laboratory methods for the diagnosis of nonbacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia have a low sensitivity and specificity, and therefore all-cause pneumonia has been proposed as a suitable outcome to evaluate vaccination effectiveness. This work reviews the epidemiology of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and evaluates the effectiveness of the 3-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV-23) in preventing CAP requiring hospitalization in people aged ≥65 years. We performed a case-control study in patients aged ≥65 years admitted through the emergency department who presented with clinical signs and symptoms compatible with pneumonia. Weincluded 489 cases and 1,467 controls and it was obtained a vaccine efectiveness of 23.6 (0.9-41.0). Our results suggest that PPV-23 vaccination is effective and reduces hospital admissions due to pneumonia in the elderly, strengthening the rationale for vaccination programmes in this age group.

Is the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine useful in preventing community-acquired pneumonia?

Although bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia is the most severe form of pneumonia, non-bacteremic forms are much more frequent. Laboratory methods for the diagnosis of nonbacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia have a low sensitivity and specificity, and therefore all-cause pneumonia has been proposed as a suitable outcome to evaluate vaccination effectiveness. This work reviews the epidemiology of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and evaluates the effectiveness of the 3-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV-23) in preventing CAP requiring hospitalization in people aged ≥65 years. We performed a case-control study in patients aged ≥65 years admitted through the emergency department who presented with clinical signs and symptoms compatible with pneumonia. Weincluded 489 cases and 1,467 controls and it was obtained a vaccine efectiveness of 23.6 (0.9-41.0). Our results suggest that PPV-23 vaccination is effective and reduces hospital admissions due to pneumonia in the elderly, strengthening the rationale for vaccination programmes in this age group.

Safety of intramuscular influenza vaccine in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy: a single blinded multi-centre randomized controlled clinical trial

Influenza vaccines are recommended for administration by the intramuscular route. However, many physicians use the subcutaneous route for patients receiving an oral anticoagulant because this route is thought to induce fewer hemorrhagic side effects. Our aim is to assess the safety of intramuscular administration of influenza vaccine in patients on oral anticoagulation therapy. Methods: Design: Randomised, controlled, single blinded, multi-centre clinical trial. Setting: 4 primary care practices in Barcelona, Spain. Participants: 229 patients on oral anticoagulation therapy eligible for influenza vaccine during the 20032004 season. Interventions: intramuscular administration of influença vaccine in the experimental group (129 patients) compared to subcutaneous administration in the control group (100 patients). Primary outcome: change in the circumference of the arm at the site of injection at 24 hours. Secondary outcomes: appearance of local reactions and pain at 24 hours and at 10 days; change in INR (International Normalized Ratio) at 24 hours and at 10 days. Analysis was by intention to treat using the 95% confidence intervals of the proportions or mean differences. Results: Baseline variables in the two groups were similar. No major side effects or major haemorrhage during the follow-up period were reported. No significant differences were observed in the primary outcome between the two groups. The appearance of local adverse reactions was more frequent in the subcutaneous administration group (37,4% vs. 17,4%, 95% confidence interval of the difference 8,2% to 31,8%). Conclusion: This study shows that the intramuscular administration route of influenza vaccine in patients on anticoagulant therapy does not have more side effects than the subcutaneous administration route

Dendritic cells exposed to MVA-based HIV-1 vaccine induce highly functional HIV-1-specific CD8+ T cell responses in HIV-1-infected individuals

Currently, MVA virus vectors carrying HIV-1 genes are being developed as HIV-1/AIDS prophylactic/therapeutic vaccines. Nevertheless, little is known about the impact of these vectors on human dendritic cells (DC) and their capacity to present HIV-1 antigens to human HIV-specific T cells. This study aimed to characterize the interaction of MVA and MVA expressing the HIV-1 genes Env-Gag-Pol-Nef of clade B (referred to as MVA-B) in human monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MDDC) and the subsequent processes of HIV-1 antigen presentation and activation of memory HIV-1-specific T lymphocytes. For these purposes, we performed ex vivo assays with MDDC and autologous lymphocytes from asymptomatic HIV-infected patients. Infection of MDDC with MVA-B or MVA, at the optimal dose of 0.3 PFU/MDDC, induced by itself a moderate degree of maturation of MDDC, involving secretion of cytokines and chemokines (IL1-ra, IL-7, TNF-α, IL-6, IL-12, IL-15, IL-8, MCP-1, MIP-1α, MIP-1β, RANTES, IP-10, MIG, and IFN-α). MDDC infected with MVA or MVA-B and following a period of 48 h or 72 h of maturation were able to migrate toward CCL19 or CCL21 chemokine gradients. MVA-B infection induced apoptosis of the infected cells and the resulting apoptotic bodies were engulfed by the uninfected MDDC, which cross-presented HIV-1 antigens to autologous CD8+ T lymphocytes. MVA-B-infected MDDC co-cultured with autologous T lymphocytes induced a highly functional HIV-specific CD8+ T cell response including proliferation, secretion of IFN-γ, IL-2, TNF-α, MIP-1β, MIP-1α, RANTES and IL-6, and strong cytotoxic activity against autologous HIV-1-infected CD4+ T lymphocytes. These results evidence the adjuvant role of the vector itself (MVA) and support the clinical development of prophylactic and therapeutic anti-HIV vaccines based on MVA-B.

Dendritic cells exposed to MVA-based HIV-1 vaccine induce highly functional HIV-1-specific CD8+ T cell responses in HIV-1-infected individuals

Currently, MVA virus vectors carrying HIV-1 genes are being developed as HIV-1/AIDS prophylactic/therapeutic vaccines. Nevertheless, little is known about the impact of these vectors on human dendritic cells (DC) and their capacity to present HIV-1 antigens to human HIV-specific T cells. This study aimed to characterize the interaction of MVA and MVA expressing the HIV-1 genes Env-Gag-Pol-Nef of clade B (referred to as MVA-B) in human monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MDDC) and the subsequent processes of HIV-1 antigen presentation and activation of memory HIV-1-specific T lymphocytes. For these purposes, we performed ex vivo assays with MDDC and autologous lymphocytes from asymptomatic HIV-infected patients. Infection of MDDC with MVA-B or MVA, at the optimal dose of 0.3 PFU/MDDC, induced by itself a moderate degree of maturation of MDDC, involving secretion of cytokines and chemokines (IL1-ra, IL-7, TNF-α, IL-6, IL-12, IL-15, IL-8, MCP-1, MIP-1α, MIP-1β, RANTES, IP-10, MIG, and IFN-α). MDDC infected with MVA or MVA-B and following a period of 48 h or 72 h of maturation were able to migrate toward CCL19 or CCL21 chemokine gradients. MVA-B infection induced apoptosis of the infected cells and the resulting apoptotic bodies were engulfed by the uninfected MDDC, which cross-presented HIV-1 antigens to autologous CD8+ T lymphocytes. MVA-B-infected MDDC co-cultured with autologous T lymphocytes induced a highly functional HIV-specific CD8+ T cell response including proliferation, secretion of IFN-γ, IL-2, TNF-α, MIP-1β, MIP-1α, RANTES and IL-6, and strong cytotoxic activity against autologous HIV-1-infected CD4+ T lymphocytes. These results evidence the adjuvant role of the vector itself (MVA) and support the clinical development of prophylactic and therapeutic anti-HIV vaccines based on MVA-B.

A human immune data-informed vaccine concept elicits strong and broad T-cell specificities associated with HIV-1 control in mice and macaques

Background: None of the HIV T-cell vaccine candidates that have reached advanced clinical testing have been able to induce protective T cell immunity. A major reason for these failures may have been suboptimal T cell immunogen designs. Methods: To overcome this problem, we used a novel immunogen design approach that is based on functional T cell response data from more than 1,000 HIV-1 clade B and C infected individuals and which aims to direct the T cell response to the most vulnerable sites of HIV-1. Results: Our approach identified 16 regions in Gag, Pol, Vif and Nef that were relatively conserved and predominantly targeted by individuals with reduced viral loads. These regions formed the basis of the HIVACAT T-cell Immunogen (HTI) sequence which is 529 amino acids in length, includes more than 50 optimally defined CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell epitopes restricted by a wide range of HLA class I and II molecules and covers viral sites where mutations led to a dramatic reduction in viral replicative fitness. In both, C57BL/6 mice and Indian rhesus macaques immunized with an HTI-expressing DNA plasmid (DNA.HTI) induced broad and balanced T-cell responses to several segments within Gag, Pol, and Vif. DNA.HTI induced robust CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses that were increased by a booster vaccination using modified virus Ankara (MVA.HTI), expanding the DNA.HTI induced response to up to 3.2% IFN-γ T-cells in macaques. HTI-specific T cells showed a central and effector memory phenotype with a significant fraction of the IFN-γ+ CD8+ T cells being Granzyme B+ and able to degranulate (CD107a+). Conclusions: These data demonstrate the immunogenicity of a novel HIV-1 T cell vaccine concept that induced broadly balanced responses to vulnerable sites of HIV-1 while avoiding the induction of responses to potential decoy targets that may divert effective T-cell responses towards variable and less protective viral determinants.