Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

L'ús actual de les xarxes socials en relació a la promoció de l'activitat física saludable a 14 hospitals Nord-americans

Estudi que cerca esbrinar quina es la incidència que tenen les xarxes socials de comunicació per Internet en la promoció de l'exercici físic per a millorar la salut analitzant l'ús que en fan els hospitals escollits de les diferents xarxes Facebook, Twitter, canal Youtube i web.

L'ús de les xarxes socials en activitats de promoció de l'activitat física en hospitals americans

En la present investigació s'analitzen catorze hospitals ubicats als Estats Units, amb l'objectiu d'analitzar l'ús de les xarxes socials, centrant-nos en la promoció que en realitzen de l'activitat física, a partir de les diferents xarxes socials.

L'ús dels mitjans de comunicació socials en la promoció de l'alimentació saludable als hospitals nord-americans

En el present estudi s'ha analitzat, de quina manera els millors hospitals dels EEUU, fan servir els mitjans de comunicació social per promocionar un tipus de vida saludable, en concret, una dieta saludable. Els mitjans més utilitzats són la pàgina web, YouTube, Facebook, Twiter i els blogs, i l'ús que se'n fa d'aquests mitjans va des de la promoció de dietes saludables, fins a consells nutricionals en general o en casos de malalties o embaràs.

Ús dels recursos web per part dels hospitals americans en la promoció de l'alimentació saludable

Revisió de l'ús que fan els centres hospitalaris americans dels recursos que ofereix Internet, amb l'objectiu de promoure l'alimentació saludable entre la població.

Predictors of political orientation among US-born Mexican Americans: cultural identification, acculturation attitudes and socioeconomic status

With each passing election, U.S. political campaigns have renewed their efforts in courting the “Latino vote,” yet the Latino population is not a culturally homogenous voting bloc. This study examined how cultural identifications and acculturation attitudes in U.S. born Mexican Americans interacted with socioeconomic status (SES) to predict political orientation. Individuals who held stronger Mexican identity and supported biculturalism as an acculturation strategy had a more liberal orientation, while belonging to a higher SES group and holding stronger assimilation attitudes predicted a less liberal orientation. Mexican cultural identification interacted with SES such that those who held a weaker Mexican identity, but came from a higher social class were less liberal and more moderate in their political orientation. Weak Mexican identification and higher SES also predicted weaker endorsement of bicultural acculturation attitudes, which in turn, mediated the differences in political orientation. The acceptance of one’s ethnic identity and endorsement of bicultural attitudes predicted a more liberal political orientation. In light of these findings, political candidates should be cautious in how they pander to Latino constituents—referencing the groups’ ethnic culture or customs may distance constituents who are not strongly identified with their ethnic culture.

Are Americans' musical preferences more omnivores today?

Although we found a general trend favouring the omnivorousness thesis, as soon as we adjusted it to a set of structural factors and consumers tastes it was clear that this was caused by elitist inclusive omnivores who had increased the scope of their tastes. In general, younger cohorts were becoming less omnivorous, nevertheless, they were also becoming more educated and had greater to higher levels of inc ome, making the youth moreomnivorous. As expected, upscale consumers set limits on their popular taste: musicalgenres, whose audiences had educational levels below the mean profile were less preferredby upscale respondents. In spite of this, as time passed, some popular brows gained socialstatus.

Time-related improvement of survival in resectable gastric cancer: the role of Japanese-style gastrectomy with D2 lymphadenectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy

Background: We investigated the change of prognosis in resected gastric cancer (RGC) patients and the role of radical surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: We retrospectively analyze the outcome of 426 consecutive patients from 1975 to 2002, divided into 2 time-periods (TP) cohort: Before 1990 (TP1, n = 207) and 1990 or after (TP2; n= 219). Partial gastrectomy and D1-lymphadenetomy was predominant in TP1 and total gastrectomy with D2-lymphadenectomy it was in TP2. Adjuvant chemotherapy consisted of mitomycin C (MMC), 10¿20 mg/m2 iv 4 courses or MMC plus Tegafur 500 mg/m2 for 6 months. Results: Positive nodes were similar in TP2/TP1 patients with 56%/59% respectively. Total gastrectomy was done in 56%/45% of TP2/TP1 respectively. Two-drug adjuvant chemotherapy was administered in 65%/18% of TP2/TP1 respectively. Survival at 5 years was 66% for TP2 versus 42%for TP1 patients (p < 0.0001). Survival by stages II, IIIA y IIIB for TP2 versus TP1 patients was 70 vs. 51% (p = 0.0132); 57 vs. 22% (p = 0.0008) y 30 vs. 15% (p = 0.2315) respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age, stage of disease and period of treatment were independent variables. Conclusion: The global prognosis and that of some stages have improved in recent years with case RGC patients treated with surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy.