18 resultados para J11 - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

em Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya (CSUC), Spain


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Sacoglossan sea slugs (Mollusca: Opisthobranchia) are one of the few groups of specialist herbivores in the marine environment. Sacoglossans feed suctorially on the cell sap of macroalgae, from which they 'steal' chloroplasts (kleptoplasty) and deterrent substances (kleptochemistry), retaining intracellularly both host plastids and chemicals. The ingested chloroplasts continue to photosynthesize for periods ranging from a few hours or days up to 3 months in some species. Shelled, more primitive sacoglossans feed only on the siphonalean green algal genus Caulerpa, and they do not have functional kleptoplasty. The diet of sacoglossans has radiated out from this ancestral food. Among the shell-less Plakobranchidae (=Elysiidae), the more primitive species feed on other siphonales (families Derbesiaceae, Caulerpaceae, Bryopsidaceae and Codiaceae) and fix carbon, while the more 'advanced' species within the Plakobranchidae and Limapontioidae have a more broad dietary range. Most of these 'advanced' species are unable to fix carbon because the chloroplasts of their food algae are mechanically disrupted during ingestion. Mesoherbivores are likely to be eaten if they live on palatable seaweeds, their cryptic coloration and form not always keeping them safe from predators. Sacoglossans prefer to live on and eat chemically defended seaweeds, and they use ingested algal chemicals as deterrents of potential predators. The most ancestral shelled sacoglossans (Oxynoidae) and some Plakobranchidae such as Elysia translucens, Thuridilla hopei and Bosellia mimetica have developed a diet-derived chemical defense mechanism. Oxynoids and Thuridilla hopei are able to biomodify the algal metabolites. However, the Plakobranchidae Elysia timida and E. viridis, together with Limapontioidea species, are characterized by their ability to de novo synthesize polypropionate metabolites. A whole analysis of kleptoplasty and chemical defenses in sacoglossans may offer a better understanding of the ecology and evolution of these specialized opisthobranchs. In this paper we summarize some of the latest findings, related mainly to Mediterranean species, and offer a plausible evolutionary scenario based on the biological and chemical trends we can distinguish in them.

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Background: A holistic perspective on health implies giving careful consideration to the relationship between physical and mental health. In this regard the present study sought to determine the level of Positive Mental Health (PMH) among people with chronic physical health problems, and to examine the relationship between the observed levels of PMH and both physical health status and socio-demographic variables. Methods: The study was based on the Multifactor Model of Positive Mental Health (Lluch, 1999), which comprises six factors: Personal Satisfaction (F1), Prosocial Attitude (F2), Self-control (F3), Autonomy (F4), Problem-solving and Self-actualization (F5), and Interpersonal Relationship Skills (F6). The sample comprised 259 adults with chronic physical health problems who were recruited through a primary care center in the province of Barcelona (Spain). Positive mental health was assessed by means of the Positive Mental Health Questionnaire (Lluch, 1999). Results: Levels of PMH differed, either on the global scale or on specific factors, in relation to the following variables: age: global PMH scores decreased with age (r=-0.129; p=0.038); b) gender: men scored higher on F1 (t=2.203; p=0.028) and F4 (t=3.182; p=0.002), while women scored higher on F2 (t -3.086; p=0.002) and F6 (t=-2.744; p=0.007); c) number of health conditions: the fewer the number of health problems the higher the PMH score on F5 (r=-0.146; p=0.019); d) daily medication: polymedication patients had lower PMH scores, both globally and on various factors; e) use of analgesics: occasional use of painkillers was associated with higher PMH scores on F1 (t=-2.811; p=0.006). There were no significant differences in global PMH scores according to the type of chronic health condition. The only significant difference in the analysis by factors was that patients with hypertension obtained lower PMH scores on the factor Autonomy (t=2.165; p=0.032). Conclusions: Most people with chronic physical health problems have medium or high levels of PMH. The variables that adversely affect PMH are old age, polypharmacy and frequent consumption of analgesics. The type of health problem does not influence the levels of PMH. Much more extensive studies with samples without chronic pathology are now required in order to be able to draw more robust conclusions.

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Using an event-study methodology, this paper analyzes the aftermath of civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses on those experiences where the end of conflict marks the beginning of a relatively lasting peace. The paper considers 41 countries involved in internal wars in the period 1960-2003. In order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, the paper considers a host of social areas represented by basic indicators of economic performance, health and education, political development, demographic trends, and conflict and security issues. For each of these indicators, the paper first compares the post- and pre-war situations and then examines their dynamic trends during the post-conflict period. It conducts this analysis both in absolute and relative terms, the latter in relation to control groups of otherwise similar countries. The paper concludes that, even though war has devastating effects and its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end of war marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvement are indeed achieved.

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In this paper we attempt to describe the general picture reasons behind the world population explosion during the 20th century. In general we comment that if, according to some, at the end of the 20th century there were too many people, this was has a consequence of scientific innovation, circulation of information, and economic growth, leading to a dramatic improvement in life expectancies. Nevertheless, a crucial variable shaping differences in demographic growth is fertility. In this paper we identify as important exogenous variables affecting fertility female education levels, infant mortality, and racial identity and diversity. It is estimated that three additional years of schooling for mothers leads on average (at the world level ) to one child less per couple. Even if we can identify a worldwide trend towards convergence in demographic trends, the African case needs to be given more attention, not only because of its different demographic patterns, but also because this is the continent where the worldwide movement towards a higher quality of life has not yet been achieved for an important share of the world's population.

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In this paper we attempt to describe the general reasons behind the world populationexplosion in the 20th century. The size of the population at the end of the century inquestion, deemed excessive by some, was a consequence of a dramatic improvementin life expectancies, attributable, in turn, to scientific innovation, the circulation ofinformation and economic growth. Nevertheless, fertility is a variable that plays acrucial role in differences in demographic growth. We identify infant mortality, femaleeducation levels and racial identity as important exogenous variables affecting fertility.It is estimated that in poor countries one additional year of primary schooling forwomen leads to 0.614 child less per couple on average (worldwide). While it may bepossible to identify a global tendency towards convergence in demographic trends,particular attention should be paid to the case of Africa, not only due to its differentdemographic patterns, but also because much of the continent's population has yet toexperience improvement in quality of life generally enjoyed across the rest of theplanet.

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Background: The repertoire of statistical methods dealing with the descriptive analysis of the burden of a disease has been expanded and implemented in statistical software packages during the last years. The purpose of this paper is to present a web-based tool, REGSTATTOOLS http://regstattools.net intended to provide analysis for the burden of cancer, or other group of disease registry data. Three software applications are included in REGSTATTOOLS: SART (analysis of disease"s rates and its time trends), RiskDiff (analysis of percent changes in the rates due to demographic factors and risk of developing or dying from a disease) and WAERS (relative survival analysis). Results: We show a real-data application through the assessment of the burden of tobacco-related cancer incidence in two Spanish regions in the period 1995-2004. Making use of SART we show that lung cancer is the most common cancer among those cancers, with rising trends in incidence among women. We compared 2000-2004 data with that of 1995-1999 to assess percent changes in the number of cases as well as relative survival using RiskDiff and WAERS, respectively. We show that the net change increase in lung cancer cases among women was mainly attributable to an increased risk of developing lung cancer, whereas in men it is attributable to the increase in population size. Among men, lung cancer relative survival was higher in 2000-2004 than in 1995-1999, whereas it was similar among women when these time periods were compared. Conclusions: Unlike other similar applications, REGSTATTOOLS does not require local software installation and it is simple to use, fast and easy to interpret. It is a set of web-based statistical tools intended for automated calculation of population indicators that any professional in health or social sciences may require.

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Objective: We used demographic and clinical data to design practical classification models for prediction of neurocognitive impairment (NCI) in people with HIV infection. Methods: The study population comprised 331 HIV-infected patients with available demographic, clinical, and neurocognitive data collected using a comprehensive battery of neuropsychological tests. Classification and regression trees (CART) were developed to btain detailed and reliable models to predict NCI. Following a practical clinical approach, NCI was considered the main variable for study outcomes, and analyses were performed separately in treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients. Results: The study sample comprised 52 treatment-naïve and 279 experienced patients. In the first group, the variables identified as better predictors of NCI were CD4 cell count and age (correct classification [CC]: 79.6%, 3 final nodes). In treatment-experienced patients, the variables most closely related to NCI were years of education, nadir CD4 cell count, central nervous system penetration-effectiveness score, age, employment status, and confounding comorbidities (CC: 82.1%, 7 final nodes). In patients with an undetectable viral load and no comorbidities, we obtained a fairly accurate model in which the main variables were nadir CD4 cell count, current CD4 cell count, time on current treatment, and past highest viral load (CC: 88%, 6 final nodes). Conclusion: Practical classification models to predict NCI in HIV infection can be obtained using demographic and clinical variables. An approach based on CART analyses may facilitate screening for HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders and complement clinical information about risk and protective factors for NCI in HIV-infected patients.

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The demographic shift underway in Southern Europe requires a revision of some of the fundamental principles of the traditional welfare state. We analyze the evolution of several aspects of welfare and social expenditure over the last two decades. We find that in the context of the present demographic changes and real estate boom current social and pension policy leads to a new distribution of benefits and burdens which is highly intergenerationally unequal. We argue for a revised definition of public policy based on Musgrave's proposition as a possible rule for an intergenerationally fair distribution.

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The demographic shift underway in Southern Europe requires a revision of some of thefundamental principles of the traditional welfare state. We analyze the evolution of several aspects of welfare and social expenditure over the last two decades. We find that in the context of the present demographic changes and real estate boom current social and pension policy leads to a new distribution of benefits and burdens which is highly intergenerationally unequal. We argue for a revised definition of public policy based on Musgrave's proposition as a possible rule for an intergenerationally fair distribution.

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The purpose of this paper is to highlight scientific information resources that list journal and country rankings. These databases usually focus on the use of citation counts and number of publications to evaluate the interest, visibility and impact of research performance. The exposed resources are platforms that provide added value to authors improving their knowledge about research trends and also where to submit their papers.

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On the basis of two parallel data sets refering to phenological events in open scrubs and pastures at two sites (Balaguer and Vic), the authors present a comprehensive report of the phenology of these Mediterranean communities. Four main phenophases (vegetative growth, flowering, fruiting and resting) were recorded monthly in 11 communities over 15 months. The results allow comparisons to be drawn between localities and communities, both at community and species levels, and to consider the effects of contemporary climatic data. This yielded useful information on general trends and on the particular responses of each community type to their corresponding constraints.

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In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

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Objective: Determine the presence of"burnout" syndrome and characteristic personality patterns in the students and faculty of three graduate programs in Dentistry at the University of Barcelona: Department of Oral Surgery and Implantology, Department of Orthodontics and Department of Integrated Dentistry. Materials and Methods: The study was carried out in 78 dentists. The level of"burnout" was evaluated using the Maslach Burnout Inventory, socio-demographic variables and, finally, the personality test. Results: Oral surgeons constituted the group of highlevel"burnout". The profile of an individual with a propensity to"burn out" is a single man, with a median age of 27, that is in the first years of the graduate program and that combines studies with 30 hours of clinical practice and/or other work (p<0,05). Narcissistic and borderline are the types of personality most frequently found in the individuals that present"burnout" syndrome (p<0,05). Conclusions: In general, no high levels of"burnout" were registered in the studied population, only 2-3%, if applying strict definition of"burnout", and 10% if these criteria were amplified. We believe it is necessary to identify the individuals with a tendency towards"burnout", in order to establish preventive measures and avoid future negative behaviour at work as well as at the personal level.

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We present the global phylogeography of the black sea urchin Arbacia lixula, an amphi-Atlantic echinoid with potential to strongly impact shallow rocky ecosystems. Sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase gene of 604 specimens from 24 localities were obtained, covering most of the distribution area of the species, including the Mediterranean and both shores of the Atlantic. Genetic diversity measures, phylogeographic patterns, demographic parameters and population differentiation were analysed. We found high haplotype diversity but relatively low nucleotide diversity, with 176 haplotypes grouped within three haplogroups: one is shared between Eastern Atlantic (including Mediterranean) and Brazilian populations, the second is found in Eastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean and the third is exclusively from Brazil. Significant genetic differentiation was found between Brazilian, Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean regions, but no differentiation was found among Mediterranean sub-basins or among Eastern Atlantic sub-regions. The star-shaped topology of the haplotype network and the unimodal mismatch distributions of Mediterranean and Eastern Atlantic samples suggest that these populations have suffered very recent demographic expansions. These expansions could be dated 94-205 kya in the Mediterranean, and 31-67 kya in the Eastern Atlantic. In contrast, Brazilian populations did not show any signature of population expansion. Our results indicate that all populations of A. lixula constitute a single species. The Brazilian populations probably diverged from an Eastern Atlantic stock. The present-day genetic structure of the species in Eastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean is shaped by very recent demographic processes. Our results support the view (backed by the lack of fossil record) that A. lixula is a recent thermophilous colonizer which spread throughout the Mediterranean during a warm period of the Pleistocene, probably during the last interglacial. Implications for the possible future impact of A. lixula on shallow Mediterranean ecosystems in the context of global warming trends must be considered.

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Clinical trials today are conducted in multiple countries to enhance patient recruitment and improve efficiency of trials. However, the demographic and cultural diversity may contribute to variations in study outcomes. Here we conducted post-hoc analyses for a placebo-controlled study with ziprasidone and haloperidol for the treatment of acute mania to address the demographic, dosing, and outcome disparities in India, Russia and the USA. We compared the baseline characteristics, outcomes and discontinuations in patients and explored the relationship between the outcome measures across these countries. We found substantial differences in baseline characteristics of subjects, administered dosage and disease severity in India compared to the USA and Russia. Conversely, US subjects had a higher placebo response compared to subjects in Russia and India. These results are probably due to demographic differences in patient populations and psychiatric clinical practice across countries. While we offer initial ideas to address the disparities identified in this analysis, it is clear that further research to improve our understanding of geographical differences is essential to ensure globally applicable results for clinical trials in psychiatry.