Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case

Bodily injury claims have the greatest impact on the claim costs of motor insurance companies. The disability severity of motor claims is assessed in numerous European countries by means of score systems. In this paper a zero inflated generalized Poisson regression model is implemented to estimate the disability severity score of victims in-volved in motor accidents on Spanish roads. We show that the injury severity estimates may be automatically converted into financial terms by insurers at any point of the claim handling process. As such, the methodology described may be used by motor insurers operating in the Spanish market to monitor the size of bodily injury claims. By using insurance data, various applications are presented in which the score estimate of disability severity is of value to insurers, either for computing the claim compensation or for claim reserve purposes.

Discrete distributions when modeling the disability severity score of motor victims

Many European states apply score systems to evaluate the disability severity of non-fatal motor victims under the law of third-party liability. The score is a non-negative integer with an upper bound at 100 that increases with severity. It may be automatically converted into financial terms and thus also reflects the compensation cost for disability. In this paper, discrete regression models are applied to analyze the factors that influence the disability severity score of victims. Standard and zero-altered regression models are compared from two perspectives: an interpretation of the data generating process and the level of statistical fit. The results have implications for traffic safety policy decisions aimed at reducing accident severity. An application using data from Spain is provided.

Pattern of injury with a graded excitotoxic insult and ensuing chronic medial septal damage in the rat brain

Brain damage caused by an acute injury depends on the initial severity of the injury and the time elapsed after the injury. To determine whether these two variables activate common mechanisms, we compared the response of the rat medial septum to insult with a graded series of concentrations of a-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazole propionic acid (AMPA) with the time-course effects of a low dose of AMPA. For this purpose we conducted a dose-response study at concentrations of AMPA between 0.27 and 10.8 nmol to measure atrophy of the septal area, losses of cholinergic and GABAergic neurons, astroglial and microglial reactions, and calcification. Cholinergic neurons, whose loss paralleled the degree of septal atrophy produced by AMPA, are more sensitive than GABAergic neurons to the injury produced by AMPA. At doses of AMPA above 2.7 nmol, calcification and the degree of microglial reaction increased only in the GABAergic region of the septal area, whereas atrophy and neuronal loss reached a plateau. We chose the 2.7-nmol dose of AMPA to determine how these parameters were modified between 4 days and 6 months after injection. We found that atrophy and neuronal loss increased progressively through the 6-month study period, whereas astrogliosis ceased to be observed after 1 month, and calcium precipitates were never detected. We conclude that septal damage does not increase with the intensity of an excitotoxic insult. Rather, it progresses continuously after the insult. Because these two situations involve different mechanisms, short-term paradigms are inappropriate for interpreting the pathogenic mechanisms responsible for long-term neurodegenerative processes.

The black-white test score gap widens with age?

We re-examine the theoretical concept of a production function for cognitive achievement, and argue that an indirect production function that depends upon the variables that constrain parents' choices is both moretractable from an econometric point of view, and more interesting from an economic point of view than is a direct production function that depends upon a detailed list of direct inputs such as number of books in the household. We estimate flexible econometric models of indirect production functions for two achievement measures from the Woodcock-Johnson Revised battery, using data from two waves of the Child Development Supplement to the PSID. Elasticities of achievement measures with respect to family income and parents' educational levels are positive and significant. Gaps between scores of black and white children narrow or remain constant as children grow older, a result that differs from previous findings in the literature. The elasticities of achievement scores with respect to family income are substantially higher for children of black families, and there are some notable difference in elasticities with respect to parents' educational levels across blacks and whites.

Paper de la PAP en la resposta inflamatoria durant la pancreatitis aguda

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada al Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale, França, entre setembre i octubre del 2006. La PAP va ser identificada inicialment com una proteïna de secreció, que apareixia al suc pancreàtic després de la inducció d’una pancreatitis aguda experimental. Per la PAP s’ha suggerit diferents funcions, algunes no relacionades en aparença, però les més interessants en el camp de la pancreatitis són les activitats antiapoptótiques, mitogéniques i, especialment, antiinflamatóries. Per aprofundir en aquests aspectes de la PAP, s’ha emprat un model de ratolí PAP-/- per observar els efectes de la deleció del gen de la PAP durant la pancreatitis aguda.Per induir la pancreatitis es va fer servir el model de administració de ceruleina a dosi supra-màximes. En aquestes condicions es va observar que en els animals PAP-/-, la severitat del procés era menor. Els marcadors de necrosi pancreàtica, lipasa i amilasa, van presentar nivells menors en els animals PAP-/- que en els corresponents wild type. Per contra, el nombre de PMN infiltrats i la producció de citoquines pro-inflamatories va ser major en el pàncreas dels animals PAP-/-. La intensitat de la resposta inflamatòria observada suggereix que en condicions fisiològiques, el paper anti-inflamatori de la PAP es prou rellevant. Això ja s’havia suggerit en estudis in vitro, en els que es va demostrar que l’activitat antiinflamatòria de la PAP depenia de la via de transducció de senyal Jak/STAT/SOCS3. Aquesta hipòtesi s’ha comprovat in vivo, monitoritzant el nivell d’activació de STAT3 en els pàncreas dels animals després de la inducció de la pancreatitis.Tot plegat confirma que les funcions antiinflamatòries descrites in vitro per la PAP també es poden observar in vivo, de manera que la PAP sembla ser un agent important en la resposta de les cèl•lules pancreàtiques durant la pancreatitis aguda.

Exploring Determinants of Urban Motorcycle Accident Severity: The Case of Barcelona

Public authorities and road users alike are increasingly concerned by recent trends in road safety outcomes in Barcelona, which is the European city with the highest number of registered Powered Two-Wheel (PTW) vehicles per inhabitant,. In this study we explore the determinants of motorcycle and moped accident severity in a large urban area, drawing on Barcelona’s local police database (2002-2008). We apply non-parametric regression techniques to characterize PTW accidents and parametric methods to investigate the factors influencing their severity. Our results show that PTW accident victims are more vulnerable, showing greater degrees of accident severity, than other traffic victims. Speed violations and alcohol consumption provide the worst health outcomes. Demographic and environment-related risk factors, in addition to helmet use, play an important role in determining accident severity. Thus, this study furthers our understanding of the most vulnerable vehicle types, while our results have direct implications for local policy makers in their fight to reduce the severity of PTW accidents in large urban areas.

An Introduction to parametric and non-parametric models for bivariate positive insurance claim severity distributions

We present a real data set of claims amounts where costs related to damage are recorded separately from those related to medical expenses. Only claims with positive costs are considered here. Two approaches to density estimation are presented: a classical parametric and a semi-parametric method, based on transformation kernel density estimation. We explore the data set with standard univariate methods. We also propose ways to select the bandwidth and transformation parameters in the univariate case based on Bayesian methods. We indicate how to compare the results of alternative methods both looking at the shape of the overall density domain and exploring the density estimates in the right tail.

Estimation of parametric and nonparametric models for univariate claim severity distributions - an approach using R

This paper presents an analysis of motor vehicle insurance claims relating to vehicle damage and to associated medical expenses. We use univariate severity distributions estimated with parametric and non-parametric methods. The methods are implemented using the statistical package R. Parametric analysis is limited to estimation of normal and lognormal distributions for each of the two claim types. The nonparametric analysis presented involves kernel density estimation. We illustrate the benefits of applying transformations to data prior to employing kernel based methods. We use a log-transformation and an optimal transformation amongst a class of transformations that produces symmetry in the data. The central aim of this paper is to provide educators with material that can be used in the classroom to teach statistical estimation methods, goodness of fit analysis and importantly statistical computing in the context of insurance and risk management. To this end, we have included in the Appendix of this paper all the R code that has been used in the analysis so that readers, both students and educators, can fully explore the techniques described

Utilidad del Cálculo del Índice tobillo-brazo en pacientes no diabéticos con factores de riesgo cardiovascular en la identificación de pacientes de alto riesgo; Concordancia con tablas de riesgo cardiovascular (REGICOR y SCORE)

L’objectiu de l’estudi va ser la determinació de la prevalença de malaltia arterial perifèrica mitjançant el càlcul de l'Índex turmell-braç (ITB) en pacients sense malaltia vascular associada, no diabètics, amb 2 o més factors de risc cardiovascular (RCV); Determinant la seva concordança amb les taules de RCV de REGICOR i SCORE i veure quina d’elles classifica millor a aquests pacients. Es va seleccionar una mostra aleatòria de pacients entre 50 i 65 anys. El resultat de l’estudi demostra que la prevalença és baixa i no s’estableix concordança entre les taules de RCV de REGICOR i SCORE i el càlcul del ITB.

Aplicación de un score semiquantitativo de tac-ar para el control y evaluación del pronóstico de pacientes con fibrosis pulmonar idiopática

Estudi prospectiu amb 36 pacients, on definírem un score semiquantitatiu per a diferents patrons de FPI a la TCAR, i la suma resultant (Score Total). Estudiàrem la relació amb paràmetres funcionals i cel.lularitat del RBA, analitzant-se’n les diferències amb els pacients morts. Trobàrem correlació entre el score de bresca (honeycomb) i total amb alguns paràmetres funcionals, prova de marxa de 6 minuts i la gasometria arterial. Els morts hi tenien major score total i tendència a la neutrofília. Concluírem que un score semiquantitatiu de TCAR és útil per a valorar la gravetat inicial i preveure l’evolució de la FPI. Paraules clau: TCAR, FPI, Score semiquantitatiu, gravetat, evolució.

A new automated method versus continuous positive airway pressure method for measuring pressure-volume curves in patients with acute lung injury

Objective: To compare pressure–volume (P–V) curves obtained with the Galileo ventilator with those obtained with the CPAP method in patients with ALI or ARDS receiving mechanical ventilation. P–V curves were fitted to a sigmoidal equation with a mean R2 of 0.994 ± 0.003. Lower (LIP) and upper inflection (UIP), and deflation maximum curvature (PMC) points calculated from the fitted variables showed a good correlation between methods with high intraclass correlation coefficients. Bias and limits of agreement for LIP, UIP and PMC obtained with the two methods in the same patient were clinically acceptable.