Entrepreneurial success and failure: Confidence and fallible judgement

Excess entry or the high failure rate of market-entry decisions is often attributed tooverconfidence exhibited by entreprene urs. We show analytically that whereas excess entryis an inevitable consequence of imperfect assessments of entrepreneurial skill, it does notimply overconfidence. Judgmental fallibility leads to excess entry even when everyone isunderconfident. Self-selection implies greater confidence (but not necessarilyoverconfidence) among those who start new businesses than those who do not and amongsuccessful entrants than failures. Our results question claims that entrepreneurs areoverconfident and emphasize the need to understand the role of judgmental fallibility inproducing economic outcomes.

Estimating arterial blood gases with the EABC® System (“Earlobe Arterialized Blood Collector”) in critically ill patients. A validation study.

The Earlobe Arterialized Blood Collector® is a minimally invasive system able to perform arterialized capillary blood gas analysis from the earlobe (EL). A prospective validation study was performed in 55 critical ill patients. Sampling failure rate was high (53.6%). Risk factors were age > 65 years, diabetes, vasoactive drug therapy and noradrenaline (NA) doses above 0.22 μg / kg / min. Multivariate analysis showed age > 65 years was the only factor independently associated with failure. Concordance analysis with arterial blood gases and Bland-Altman agreement evaluation were insufficient for validating the new system for all gasometrical variables.

Excess Entry, Ambiguity Seeking, and Competence: An Experimental Investigation

Excess entry refers to the high failure rate of new entrepreneurial ventures. Economic explanations suggest 'hit and run' entrants and risk-seeking behavior. A psychological explanation is that people (entrepreneurs) are overconfident in their abilities (Camerer & Lovallo, 1999). Characterizing entry decisions as ambiguous gambles, we alternatively suggest following Heath and Tversky (1991) that people seek ambiguity when the source of uncertainty is related to their competence. Overconfidence, as such, plays no role. This hypothesis is confirmed in an experimental study that also documents the phenomenon of reference group neglect. Finally, we emphasize the utility that people gain from engaging in activities that contribute to a sense of competence. This is an important force in economic activity that deserves more explicit attention.

Excess entry, ambiguity seeking and competence: An experimental investigation

Excess entry refers to the high failure rate of new entrepreneurial ventures. Economic explanations suggest 'hit and run' entrants and risk-seeking behavior. A psychological explanation is that people (entrepreneurs) are overconfident in their abilities (Camerer & Lovallo, 1999). Characterizing entry decisions as ambiguous gambles, we alternatively suggest following Heath and Tversky (1991) that people seek ambiguity when the source of uncertainty is related to their competence. Overconfidence, as such, plays no role. This hypothesis is confirmed in an experimental study that also documents the phenomenon of reference group neglect. Finally, we emphasize the utility that people gain from engaging in activities that contribute to a sense of competence. This is an important force in economic activity that deserves more explicit attention.

The choice of banking firm: Are the interest rate a significant criteria?

The objective of the research is to know the factors that in Spain determine the choice of banking organization. The obtained results indicate that the dimension of the network of branches is the reason more valued. In spite of the increasing symmetry of the Spanish banking market, the preferences of the clients of the savings banks and those of the banks are not absolutely coincident, being the proximity - the main reason for election- much more valued by the former than by the latter. The existence of divergences in the preferences has also been detected according to the region and the typology of city of residence.

Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

This article analyzes empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we implement a threshold nonlinearity test that extends standard linear growth regression models to a dataset on urban, climatological and macroeconomic variables on 1,175 U.S. cities. Our analysis reveals the existence of increasing returns when per-capita income levels are beyond $19; 264. Despite this, income growth is mostly explained by social and locational fundamentals. Population growth also exhibits two distinct equilibria determined by a threshold value of 116,300 inhabitants beyond which city population grows at a higher rate. Income and population growth do not go hand in hand, implying an optimal level of population beyond which income growth stagnates or deteriorates

Abnormalities of sodium excretion and other disorders of renal function in fulminant hepatic failure

Renal function was evaluated in 40 patients with fulminant hepatic failure, They were divided into two groups on the basis of glomerular filtration rates greater than 40 ml/min or less than 25 ml/min. A number of patients in group 1 had markedly abnormal renal retention of sodium together with a reduced free water clearance and low potassium excretion which could be explained by increased proximal tubular reabsorption of sodium. The patients in group 2 had evidence that renal tubular integrity was maintained when the glomerular filtration rate was greater than or equal ml/min (functional renal failure), but evidence of tubular damage was present when this was less than 3 ml/min (acute tubular necrosis).

Barley development as affected by rate of change of photoperiod

The rate of leaf appearance of barley varies substantially with time of sowing. This variation has been related to both the length and the rate of change of photoperiod at the time of plant emergence. An outdoor pot experiment was conducted to test if rate of change of photoperiod directly affects phasic development and rate of leaf emergence of spring barley. Two photoperiod-sensitive cultivars (Bandulla and Galleon) were subjected to five photoperiod regimes: two constant photoperiods, of 14 and 15·5 h, and three different rates of change of photoperiod of c. 2, 9 and 13 min/day from seedling emergence to awn initiation. Photoperiod treatments significantly affected the duration from seedling emergence to awn initiation in both cultivars. Rate of change of photoperiod did not affect the rate of development towards awn initiation independently of the absolute daylength it produced. Although Bandulla had a longer duration than Galleon at any photoperiod regime, the cultivars did not vary in their sensitivity to photoperiod. When this phase was divided into the leaf initiation (LI) and spikelet initiation (SI) phases, it was evident that the sensitivity to photoperiod was not constant, being in general higher during the SI than during the LI phase. However, the magnitude of the change in sensitivity was cultivar-dependent, indicating that sensitivity to photoperiod during the different phases could be under independent genetic control. Final numbers of primordia (leaves together with maximum spikelet number) were negatively affected by increasing photoperiods, but once again, there was no evidence of any effect of the rate of change of photoperiod which was independent of the average photoperiod. Both cultivars showed similar sensitivities for final leaf number but maximum spikelet number was more sensitive to photoperiod in Galleon than in Bandulla. Highly significant linear relationships between leaf number and thermal time were found for all combinations of cultivars and photoperiod regimes (r2 > 0·98). The rate of leaf appearance (RLA) was similar for both cultivars (c. 0·0185 leaves/°Cd) and did not alter during plant development or in response to the change in photoperiod at awn initiation. The range in RLA was greater for Galleon (0·0170–0·0205 leaves/°Cd) than for Bandulla (0·0173–0·0186 leaves/°Cd). Neither of these cultivars exhibited a significant relationship between rate of leaf emergence and photoperiod or rate of change of photoperiod. The lack of significant relationships between RLA and length or rate of change of photoperiod is in contrast with previous reports using time of sowing as a main treatment.