Predictions from information-theoretical models of nonequilibrium radiation

The radiation distribution function used by Domínguez and Jou [Phys. Rev. E 51, 158 (1995)] has been recently modified by Domínguez-Cascante and Faraudo [Phys. Rev. E 54, 6933 (1996)]. However, in these studies neither distribution was written in terms of directly measurable quantities. Here a solution to this problem is presented, and we also propose an experiment that may make it possible to determine the distribution function of nonequilibrium radiation experimentally. The results derived do not depend on a specific distribution function for the matter content of the system

Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

New predictions for inclusive heavy-quarkonium P-wave decays

We show that some nonrelativistic quantum chromodynamics color-octet matrix elements can be written in terms of (derivatives of) wave functions at the origin and of nonperturbative universal constants once the factorization between the soft and ultrasoft scales is achieved by using an effective field theory where only ultrasoft degrees of freedom are kept as dynamical entities. This allows us to derive a new set of relations between inclusive heavy-quarkonium P-wave decays into light hadrons with different principal quantum numbers and with different heavy flavors. In particular, we can estimate the ratios of the decay widths of bottomonium P-wave states from charmonium data.

New predictions for inclusive heavy-quarkonium p-wave decays

We show that some nonrelativistic quantum chromodynamics color-octet matrix elements can be written in terms of (derivatives of) wave functions at the origin and of nonperturbative universal constants once the factorization between the soft and ultrasoft scales is achieved by using an effective field theory where only ultrasoft degrees of freedom are kept as dynamical entities. This allows us to derive a new set of relations between inclusive heavy-quarkonium P-wave decays into light hadrons with different principal quantum numbers and with different heavy flavors. In particular, we can estimate the ratios of the decay widths of bottomonium P-wave states from charmonium data.

Predictions of the MCMI-III personality disorders from NEO-PI-R domains and facets: Comparison between American and Spanish samples

Este estudio ex post facto analiza las relaciones entre las dimensiones y facetas del NEO-PI-R y los 14 trastornos de personalidad del MCMI-III en una muestra no clínica española (N = 674). Se exploran las diferencias y similitudes con los resul- tados de Dyce y O’Connor en una muestra americana con los mismos instrumentos. Como se esperaba, los análisis factoriales de facetas reteniendo cinco factores mostraron un modelo de relaciones muy similar entre ambas muestras, con un coeficiente de la congruencia total de 0,92, y coeficientes de congruencia de factor aceptables, salvo para el factor Apertura (0,68). En consonancia con las predicciones de Widiger y Widiger et al. los porcentajes de correlaciones significativas estaban alrededor de 60% en ambas muestras, y la mayoría coincidían. El análisis de regresión múltiple con dimensiones también reveló un gran parecido entre los resultados americanos y españoles, Neuroticismo fue el predictor más relacionado con los trastornos de personalidad. Se encontraron diferencias en las regresiones por facetas, aunque la varianza explicada fue prácticamente la misma que en las dimensiones. Se discute la validez transcultural y el valor predictivo del NEO-PI-R sobre los trastornos de personalidad del MCMI-III, junto con las ventajas relativas de las facetas sobre las dimensiones.

Evaluating the Performance of a Regional-Scale Photochemical Modelling System: Part I Ozone Predictions

We present a detailed evaluation of the seasonal performance of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system and the PSU/NCAR meteorological model coupled to a new Numerical Emission Model for Air Quality (MNEQA). The combined system simulates air quality at a fine resolution (3 km as horizontal resolution and 1 h as temporal resolution) in north-eastern Spain, where problems of ozone pollution are frequent. An extensive database compiled over two periods, from May to September 2009 and 2010, is used to evaluate meteorological simulations and chemical outputs. Our results indicate that the model accurately reproduces hourly and 1-h and 8-h maximum ozone surface concentrations measured at the air quality stations, as statistical values fall within the EPA and EU recommendations. However, to further improve forecast accuracy, three simple bias-adjustment techniques mean subtraction (MS), ratio adjustment (RA), and hybrid forecast (HF) based on 10 days of available comparisons are applied. The results show that the MS technique performed better than RA or HF, although all the bias-adjustment techniques significantly reduce the systematic errors in ozone forecasts.