Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

Creació de l'empresa Mediterranean Hunting

Treball sobre la creació d'una empresa de turisme cinegètic. Es pretén aprofundir en la temàtica del turisme cinegètic; aprofundir en la temàtica del les agències de viatges; aprofundir en la temàtica de caça i fer una proposta novedosa i viable des del punt de vista empresarial

Methods and representativeness of European surveys in children and adolescents: the KIDSCREEN study

Background: The objective of the present study was to compare three different sampling and questionnaire administration methods used in the international KIDSCREEN study in terms of participation, response rates, and external validity. Methods: Children and adolescents aged 8–18 years were surveyed in 13 European countries using either telephone sampling and mail administration, random sampling of school listings followed by classroom or mail administration, or multistage random sampling of communities and households with self-administration of the survey materials at home. Cooperation, completion, and response rates were compared across countries and survey methods. Data on non-respondents was collected in 8 countries. The population fraction (PF, respondents in each sex-age, or educational level category, divided by the population in the same category from Eurostat census data) and population fraction ratio (PFR, ratio of PF) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals were used to analyze differences by country between the KIDSCREEN samples and a reference Eurostat population. Results: Response rates by country ranged from 18.9% to 91.2%. Response rates were highest in the school-based surveys (69.0%–91.2%). Sample proportions by age and gender were similar to the reference Eurostat population in most countries, although boys and adolescents were slightly underrepresented (PFR <1). Parents in lower educational categories were less likely to participate (PFR <1 in 5 countries). Parents in higher educational categories were overrepresented when the school and household sampling strategies were used (PFR = 1.78–2.97). Conclusion: School-based sampling achieved the highest overall response rates but also produced slightly more biased samples than the other methods. The results suggest that the samples were sufficiently representative to provide reference population values for the KIDSCREEN instrument.

Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.

The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

Serological and virological surveys of the influenza A viruses in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic penguins

To evaluate the avian influenza virus (AIV) circulation in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic penguins we carried out a serosurvey on six species from Livingston, Marion and Gough islands. Seropositivity against AIV was performed on serum samples using a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and haemagglutination and neuraminidase inhibition assays. Some oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs were also assayed to detect influenza virus genomes by real time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Overall, 12.1% (n = 140) penguins were seropositive to AIV. By species, we detected 5% (n = 19) and 11% (n = 18) seroprevalence in sub-Antarctic rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes spp.) from Gough and Marion islands, respectively, 42% (n = 33) seroprevalence in macaroni penguins (Eudyptes chysolophus Brandt), but no positives in the three other species, gentoo (Pygoscelis papua Forster; n = 25) and chinstrap penguins (P. antarctica Forster; n = 16), from Livingston Island and king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus Miller; n = 27) from Marion Island. While seropositivity reflected previous exposure to the AIV, the influenza genome was not detected. Our results indicate that AIV strains have circulated in penguin species in the sub-Antarctic region, but further studies are necessary to determine the precise role that such penguin species play in AIV epidemiology and if this circulation is species (or genus) specific.

Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated.