9 resultados para Holt-Winters
em Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya (CSUC), Spain
Resumo:
El treball està basat en un mètode d'investigació antropològic que s'ha dut a terme al municipi de Llançà, on s'ha pres com a mostra 100 habitants, 50 homes i 50 dones, als quals se'ls ha agafat les empremtes dels dits índex d'ambdues mans, amb l'objectiu de demostrar que els dermatoglifs venen marcats genèticament amb diferències entre mans i entre sexes. Es demostra seguint la metodologia de l'anàlisi dels caràcters dermatoglifs de Cummins i Midlo (1943), descobridors i autors d'aquest estil. Aquesta tècnica té dos aspectes a valorar. Primerament s'ha d'estudiar el valor qualitatiu de cada empremta, alhora que es crea una base de dades on quedin registrades cadascuna de les observacions; i darrerament s'estudia el valor quantitatiu de cada mostra, anotant els valors obtinguts en una sèrie de taules. En la segona part del treball, creades ja, les taules, es compara els resultats extrets d'aquestes, amb la teoria universal de Holt, la qual estableix les primeres característiques generals obtingudes a través de la metodologia de Cummins i Midlo. I a partir d aquí, s'estableixen les primeres possibles conclusions, que en la tercera part del treball, es comproven de manera estadística, utilitzant dos mètodes matemàtics. Aquest tractament al qual es sotmeten les dades és la prova de la 2, que és la que ens comprovarà els resultats qualitatius; i el test T-Student, que ens verificarà els resultats quantitatius. I finalment arrel d'aquest anàlisis estadístics obtenim els resultats.
Resumo:
Various experimental procedures aimed at measuring individual risk aversion involve alist of pairs of alternative prospects. We first study the widely used method by Holt andLaury (2002), for which we find that the removal of some items from the lists yields asystematic decrease in risk aversion. This bias is quite distinct from other confoundsthat have been previously observed in the use of the Holt and Laury method. It may berelated to empirical phenomena and theoretical developments where better prospectsincrease risk aversion. Nevertheless, we have also found that the more recent elicitationmethod due to Abdellaoui et al. (2011), also based on lists, does not display anystatistically significant bias when the corresponding items of the list are removed. Ourresults suggest that methods other than the popular Holt and Laury one may bepreferable for the measurement of risk aversion.
Resumo:
A regional study of snow avalanche processes was undertaken in the SE Pyrenees. Dendrogeomorphology was used to date and reconstruct large-scale snow avalanche events that occurred in the last four decades. Dendrochronological analyses yielded the dates of nine winters when avalanches occurred in the recent past in six studied avalanche paths. Some of these avalanches were already known, but others had not been documented. In one case, the existing avalanche path map was improved with the dendrogeomorphological information of a larger past event. As a result of the dendrogeomorphological analyses, evidence for three regional-scale major avalanche years was identified in the SE Pyrenees from 1971 to 2004: 1971¿1972, 1995¿1996 and 2002¿2003. The specific synoptic atmospheric situations and the most likely nivometeorological and snowpack conditions that released these major avalanches were determined using weather data for the seasons of major avalanche releases. In 1971¿1972 the snow avalanche episode was characterized by a deep trough crossing the Pyrenees. In 1995¿1996 a variety of meteorological situations produced several episodes of major avalanches. In 2002¿2003 the more significant of two episodes was attributed to a north advection pumping an arctic air mass over the Pyrenees. The 1995¿1996 avalanche season proved to be the most notable in the four past decades in the Pyrenees.
Resumo:
During the winters of 1999 and 2000 large avalanches occurred in the ski resort of Las Leñas (Los Andes, Mendoza, Argentina). On 8 September 1999 an avalanche of new, dry snow ran over a path with a 1000 m vertical drop. On 30 June and on 1 July 2000 five avalanches of similar vertical drop, which start with new snow, entrained very wet snow during their descent, and evolved into dense snow avalanches. To use the MN2D dynamics model correctly, calibration of model parameters is necessary. Also, no previous works with the use of dynamics models exist in South America. The events used to calibrate the model occurred during the winters of 1999 and 2000 and are a good sample of the kind of avalanches which can occur in this area of the Andes range. By considering the slope morphology and topography, the snow and meteorological conditions and the results of the model simulations, it was estimated that these avalanches were not extreme events with a return period greater than one hundred years. This implies that, in natural conditions, bigger, extreme avalanches could happen. In this work, the MN2D dynamics model is calibrated with two different avalanches of the same magnitude: dry and wet. The importance of the topographic data in the simulation is evaluated. It is concluded that MN2D dynamics model can be used to simulate dry extreme avalanches in Argentinean Andes but not to simulate extreme wet avalanches, which are much more sensitive to the topography.
Resumo:
This study contains the results of a survey based on 200 relevés made, following the methodology of Klement (1955), in the provinces of Murcia, Almeria and Albacete, from the coast to 2000 msm, on siliceous rocks, mainly metamorphic schists and, more rarely, on quartzite. The climate is predominantly mediterranean and arid (from 180 to 500 mm of annual rainfall), and belongs to I11 and III(1V) types of Walter and Lieth, in the low regions, and to IV4 in the mountains. The coastal zone and also a lot of south-facing slopes enjoy fairly warm winters.
Resumo:
In Selten (1967) ?Strategy Method,? the second mover in the game submits a complete strategy. This basic idea has been exported to nonstrategic experiments, where a participant reports a complete list of contingent decisions, one for each situation or state in a given sequence, out of which one and only one state, randomly selected, will be implemented.In general, the method raises the following concern. If S0 and S1 are two differentsequences of states, and state s is in both S0 and S1, would the participant make the same decision in state s when confronted with S0 as when confronted with S1? If not, the experimental results are suspect of suffering from an ?embedding bias.?We check for embedding biases in elicitation methods of Charles Holt and Susan Laury(Laury and Holt, 2000, and Holt and Laury, 2002), and of the present authors (Bosch-Dom?nech and Silvestre, 1999, 2002, 2006a, b) by appropriately chosen replications of the original experiments. We find no evidence of embedding bias in our work. But in Holt and Laury?s method participants tend to switch earlier to the riskier option when later pairs of lotteries are eliminated from the sequence, suggesting the presence of some embedding bias.
Resumo:
Se evaluó el papel de las distintas plantas hospedantes de Rhopalosiphum maidis (Fitch) en el ciclo biológico anual de los dos cariotipos más comunes en Cataluña (2n = 8 y 2n = 10 cromosomas) mediante el seguimiento de poblaciones de pulgones en cereales de invierno y verano y en gramíneas espontáneas. Asimismo se registró la densidad de R. maidis en parcelas comerciales de maíz y se determinó el periodo de colonización mediante la instalación de una trampa de succión. Las gramíneas espontáneas juegan un papel fundamental en el ciclo biológico anual de ambos cariotipos. Los pulgones de cariotipo 2n = 10 pueden vivir sobre cebada durante el otoño, invierno y primavera, y sobre gramíneas adventicias, como Setaria sp. y Echinochloa crus-galli ((L.) P. Beauv.), en verano e inicios de otoño; la superposición del ciclo de estas gramíneas permite a los pulgones con este cariotipo cerrar su ciclo anual en ellas. En el caso de los pulgones de cariotipo 2n = 8, el sorgo es el principal hospedante de verano; la cañota constituye un hospedante básico en primavera y otoño, pudiendo actuar como hospedante en inviernos extremadamente cálidos. El periodo primaveral de colonización del maíz por R. maidis se produjo principalmente en mayo y duró hasta mediados de junio. El número de alados capturados en la trampa de succión, así como el de individuos hallados sobre plantas, fue muy bajo tanto en mayo como en junio. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que el maíz no juega un papel relevante en el ciclo de R. maidis. Se analizan algunas de las posibles causas de este fenómeno.
Resumo:
With the aim of better understanding avalanche risk in the Catalan Pyrenees, the present work focuses on the analysis of major (or destructive) avalanches. For such purpose major avalanche cartography was made by an exhaustive photointerpretation of several flights, winter and summer field surveys and inquiries to local population. Major avalanche events were used to quantify the magnitude of the episodes during which they occurred, and a Major Avalanche Activity Magnitude Index (MAAMI) was developed. This index is based on the number of major avalanches registered and its estimated frequency in a given time period, hence it quantifies the magnitude of a major avalanche episode or winter. Furthermore, it permits a comparison of the magnitude between major avalanche episodes in a given mountain range, or between mountain ranges, and for a long enough period, it should allow analysis of temporal trends. Major episodes from winter 1995/96 to 2013/14 were reconstructed. Their magnitude, frequency and extent were also assessed. During the last 19 winters, the episodes of January 22-23 and February 6-8 in 1996 were those with highest MAAMI values,followed by January 30-31, 2003, January 29, 2006, and January 24-25, 2014. To analyze the whole twentieth century, a simplified MAAMI was defined in order to attain the same purpose with a less complete dataset. With less accuracy, the same parameters were obtained at winter time resolution throughout the twentieth century. Again, 1995/96 winter had the highest MAAMI value followed by 1971/72, 1974/75 and 1937/38 winter seasons. The analysis of the spatial extent of the different episodes allowed refining the demarcation of nivological regions, and improving our knowledge about the atmospheric patterns that cause major episodes and their climatic interpretation. In some cases, the importance of considering a major avalanche episode as the result of a previous preparatory period, followed by a triggering one was revealed.
Resumo:
Evergreen trees in the Mediterranean region must cope with a wide range of environmental stresses from summer drought to winter cold. The mildness of Mediterranean winters can periodically lead to favourable environmental conditions above the threshold for a positive carbon balance, benefitting evergreen woody species more than deciduous ones. The comparatively lower solar energy input in winter decreases the foliar light saturation point. This leads to a higher susceptibility to photoinhibitory stress especially when chilly (< 12 C) or freezing temperatures (< 0 C) coincide with clear skies and relatively high solar irradiances. Nonetheless, the advantage of evergreen species that are able to photosynthesize all year round where a significant fraction can be attributed to winter months, compensates for the lower carbon uptake during spring and summer in comparison to deciduous species. We investigated the ecophysiological behaviour of three co-occurring mature evergreen tree species (Quercus ilex L., Pinus halepensis Mill., and Arbutus unedo L.). Therefore, we collected twigs from the field during a period of mild winter conditions and after a sudden cold period. After both periods, the state of the photosynthetic machinery was tested in the laboratory by estimating the foliar photosynthetic potential with CO2 response curves in parallel with chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. The studied evergreen tree species benefited strongly from mild winter conditions by exhibiting extraordinarily high photosynthetic potentials. A sudden period of frost, however, negatively affected the photosynthetic apparatus, leading to significant decreases in key physiological parameters such as the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vc,max), the maximum photosynthetic electron transport rate (Jmax), and the optimal fluorometric quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm). The responses of Vc,max and Jmax were highly species specific, with Q. ilex exhibiting the highest and P. halepensis the lowest reductions. In contrast, the optimal fluorometric quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm) was significantly lower in A. unedo after the cold period. The leaf position played an important role in Q. ilex showing a stronger winter effect on sunlit leaves in comparison to shaded leaves. Our results generally agreed with the previous classifications of photoinhibition-tolerant (P. halepensis) and photoinhibitionavoiding (Q. ilex) species on the basis of their susceptibility to dynamic photoinhibition, whereas A. unedo was the least tolerant to photoinhibition, which was chronic in this species. Q. ilex and P. halepensis seem to follow contrasting photoprotective strategies. However, they seemed equally successful under the prevailing conditions exhibiting an adaptive advantage over A. unedo. These results show that our understanding of the dynamics of interspecific competition in Mediterranean ecosystems requires consideration of the physiological behaviour during winter which may have important implications for long-term carbon budgets and growth trends.