A note on parallelizing the parameterized expectations algorithm

The parameterized expectations algorithm (PEA) involves a long simulation and a nonlinear least squares (NLS) fit, both embedded in a loop. Both steps are natural candidates for parallelization. This note shows that parallelization can lead to important speedups for the PEA. I provide example code for a simple model that can serve as a template for parallelization of more interesting models, as well as a download link for an image of a bootable CD that allows creation of a cluster and execution of the example code in minutes, with no need to install any software.

Subjective income expectations, canonical models and income risk

Expectations are central to behaviour. Despite the existence of subjective expectations data, the standard approach is to ignore these, to hypothecate a model of behaviour and to infer expectations from realisations. In the context of income models, we reveal the informational gain obtained from using both a canonical model and subjective expectations data. We propose a test for this informational gain, and illustrate our approach with an application to the problem of measuring income risk.

Mobile termination, network externalities, and consumer expectations

We re-examine the literature on mobile termination in the presence of network externalities. Externalities arise when firms discriminate between on- and off-net calls or when subscription demand is elastic. This literature predicts that profit decreases and consumer surplus increases in termination charge in a neighborhood of termination cost. This creates a puzzle since in reality we see regulators worldwide pushing termination rates down while being opposed by network operators. We show that this puzzle is resolved when consumers' expectations are assumed passive but required to be fulfilled in equilibrium (as defined by Katz and Shapiro, AER 1985), instead of being rationally responsive to non-equilibrium prices, as assumed until now.

Decomposing the Tourist’s Satisfaction Gap: The Role of Expectations and Cognitions

In this paper we present an empirical methodology that allows the tourist’s satisfaction gap between two destinations to be decomposed into two components. One explains the role of differences in observed characteristics of the tourists and the stay (endowments). The other captures the share of the gap due to differences in the utility that tourists derive from those characteristics (cognitive). To illustrate the use of this method, we employ data coming from a sample of tourists visiting two touristic enclaves in Tarragona (Spain). Our results indicate that the cognitive component explains most of the satisfaction gap. Keywords: Satisfaction, expectations, cognition, touristic destination

Shape complexity based on mutual information

Shape complexity has recently received attention from different fields, such as computer vision and psychology. In this paper, integral geometry and information theory tools are applied to quantify the shape complexity from two different perspectives: from the inside of the object, we evaluate its degree of structure or correlation between its surfaces (inner complexity), and from the outside, we compute its degree of interaction with the circumscribing sphere (outer complexity). Our shape complexity measures are based on the following two facts: uniformly distributed global lines crossing an object define a continuous information channel and the continuous mutual information of this channel is independent of the object discretisation and invariant to translations, rotations, and changes of scale. The measures introduced in this paper can be potentially used as shape descriptors for object recognition, image retrieval, object localisation, tumour analysis, and protein docking, among others

Memòria d’una indústria desapareguda: la bòbila d’en Soler

En aquest estudi pretenc revalorar el patrimoni cultural, natural i industrial deVilafant. Tot i que les directrius del meu treball, es centren de manera especial enel patrimoni industrial, ja que en aquests moments l’Ajuntament de Vilafant, téespecial interès en potenciar l’estudi de l’activitat rajolera, que va assolir el seumàxim esplendor amb la construcció de la bòbila d’en Soler l’any 1880

Open source software expectations in retail businesses of Igualada : an exploratory study

The emergence of open source software in the last years has become a common topic of study in different fields, from the most technical characteristics to the economical aspects. This paper examines the current status about the literature dealing with economics of open source and explores the uses, infrastructure and expectations of retail businesses and institutions of the town of Igualda about it. This qualitative case study finds out that the current equipment and level of uses of ICTs are low and that the current situation of the town stores is receptive to a potential introduction of open source software.

Implantació d’un ecobarri al Pla d’en Serra, Sant Gregori

La finalitat del projecte consisteix en establir les pautes per a la implantació d’un model d’ecobarri al Pla d’en Serra, un barri situat a l’est del municipi de Sant Gregori, el qual, com a conseqüència de la crisi, es troba urbanitzat i pendent d’edificació. Per tal d’assolir l’objectiu proposat es fa èmfasi en aspectes d’usos del sòl, mobilitat, metabolisme i governança. Inclou un estudi previ amb la diagnosi de l’estat actual de la zona i dels Plans influents, enquesta a la població, diagnosi de conflictes i potencialitats entre el model d’ecobarri i el model tradicional.El model que resulta de l’elaboració d’aquest projecte és el d’un barri més sostenible, més respectuós amb el medi ambient, proporciona una major comoditat i qualitat de vida per als futurs habitants de la comunitat en comparació a les perspectives que se li donen actualment a la zona

Expectativas, actitudes y normas percibidas respecto al uso del preservativo por los jóvenes de Mozambique = Expectations, attitudes and perceived norms regarding condom use in Mozambique young people

Objetivos: Conocer la prevalencia del uso auto informado del preservativo en la última relación sexual, así como algunas actitudes, creencias y percepciones sobre su uso para la prevención de la transmisión del VIH por vía heterosexual, en jóvenes de las ciudades de Nampula, Bemba y Lichinga, en Mozambique. Diseño: Estudio transversal de encuesta. Participantes: Seiscientos treinta y dos estudiantes de secundaria (56,8% varones), con edades comprendidas entre 15 y 24 años, seleccionados mediante un muestreo aleatorio estratificado proporcional. El porcentaje de participación es del 79%. Mediciones principales: Mediante un cuestionario, se evalúan en una escala de 0 a 10 las actitudes hacia el uso del preservativo, expectativas de resultados y de autoeficacia y aceptación percibida sobre su utilización. Asimismo se evalúa el uso auto informado del preservativo en la última relación sexual. Resultados: Sólo un 47,4% (IC 0,95 = 42,0:52,8) de los jóvenes sexualmente activos utilizó el preservativo en la última relación sexual. En general las mujeres tienen una actitud más favorable respecto a su uso y creen más en su eficacia que los hombres, pero lo utilizan menos y se sienten poco capaces de pedir su uso al varón, principalmente si se trata de su actual pareja. La autoeficacia percibida para utilizar o pedir el uso del preservativo aumenta en el caso de una pareja ocasional tanto en hombres como en mujeres. Conclusiones: Se requieren acciones institucionales y sociales que promocionen el uso del preservativo entre los jóvenes de Mozambique. Los programas preventivos deberían insistir en el cambio de actitudes y creencias, y enfatizar los beneficios que se derivan de su uso adecuado y sistemático desde la primera relación coital

Mutual information of IID complex Gaussian signals on block Rayleigh-faded channels

We present a method to compute, quickly and efficiently, the mutual information achieved by an IID (independent identically distributed) complex Gaussian signal on a block Rayleigh-faded channel without side information at the receiver. The method accommodates both scalar and MIMO (multiple-input multiple-output) settings. Operationally, this mutual information represents the highest spectral efficiency that can be attained using Gaussiancodebooks. Examples are provided that illustrate the loss in spectral efficiency caused by fast fading and how that loss is amplified when multiple transmit antennas are used. These examples are further enriched by comparisons with the channel capacity under perfect channel-state information at the receiver, and with the spectral efficiency attained by pilot-based transmission.

Mutual Information of IID complex Gaussian signals on block Rayleigh-faded channels

We present a method to compute, quickly and efficiently, the mutual information achieved by an IID (independent identically distributed) complex Gaussian signal on a block Rayleigh-faded channel without side information at the receiver. The method accommodates both scalar and MIMO (multiple-input multiple-output) settings. Operationally, this mutual information represents the highest spectral efficiency that can be attained using Gaussiancodebooks. Examples are provided that illustrate the loss in spectral efficiency caused by fast fading and how that loss is amplified when multiple transmit antennas are used. These examples are further enriched by comparisons with the channel capacity under perfect channel-state information at the receiver, and with the spectral efficiency attained by pilot-based transmission.

Parameterized expectations approach; Some practical issues

We discuss some practical issues related to the use of the Parameterized Expectations Approach (PEA) for solving non-linear stochastic dynamic models with rational expectations. This approach has been applied in models of macroeconomics, financial economics, economic growth, contracttheory, etc. It turns out to be a convenient algorithm, especially when there is a large number of state variables and stochastic shocks in the conditional expectations. We discuss some practical issues having to do with the application of the algorithm, and we discuss a Fortran program for implementing the algorithm that is available through the internet.We discuss these issues in a battery of six examples.

Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve

An affine asset pricing model in which traders have rational but heterogeneous expectations aboutfuture asset prices is developed. We use the framework to analyze the term structure of interestrates and to perform a novel three-way decomposition of bond yields into (i) average expectationsabout short rates (ii) common risk premia and (iii) a speculative component due to heterogeneousexpectations about the resale value of a bond. The speculative term is orthogonal to public informationin real time and therefore statistically distinct from common risk premia. Empirically wefind that the speculative component is quantitatively important accounting for up to a percentagepoint of yields, even in the low yield environment of the last decade. Furthermore, allowing for aspeculative component in bond yields results in estimates of historical risk premia that are morevolatile than suggested by standard Affine Gaussian term structure models which our frameworknests.

Solving non-linear stochastic models by parameterizing expectations: An application to asset pricing with production

A new algorithm called the parameterized expectations approach(PEA) for solving dynamic stochastic models under rational expectationsis developed and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Thisalgorithm can, in principle, approximate the true equilibrium arbitrarilywell. Also, this algorithm works from the Euler equations, so that theequilibrium does not have to be cast in the form of a planner's problem.Monte--Carlo integration and the absence of grids on the state variables,cause the computation costs not to go up exponentially when the numberof state variables or the exogenous shocks in the economy increase. \\As an application we analyze an asset pricing model with endogenousproduction. We analyze its implications for time dependence of volatilityof stock returns and the term structure of interest rates. We argue thatthis model can generate hump--shaped term structures.