Full insurance, asymmetric information and genetic testing

This paper extends previous resuls on optimal insurance trading in the presence of a stock market that allows continuous asset trading and substantial personal heterogeneity, and applies those results in a context of asymmetric informationwith references to the role of genetic testing in insurance markets.We find a novel and surprising result under symmetric information:agents may optimally prefer to purchase full insurance despitethe presence of unfairly priced insurance contracts, and other assets which are correlated with insurance.Asymmetric information has a Hirschleifer-type effect whichcan be solved by suspending insurance trading. Nevertheless,agents can attain their first best allocations, which suggeststhat the practice of restricting insurance not to be contingenton genetic tests can be efficient.

Geographic patterns of genetic variation in a broadly distributed marine vertebrate: new insights into loggerhead turtle stock structure from expanded mitochondrial DNA sequences

Previous genetic studies have demonstrated that natal homing shapes the stock structure of marine turtle nesting populations. However, widespread sharing of common haplotypes based on short segments of the mitochondrial control region often limits resolution of the demographic connectivity of populations. Recent studies employing longer control region sequences to resolve haplotype sharing have focused on regional assessments of genetic structure and phylogeography. Here we synthesize available control region sequences for loggerhead turtles from the Mediterranean Sea, Atlantic, and western Indian Ocean basins. These data represent six of the nine globally significant regional management units (RMUs) for the species and include novel sequence data from Brazil, Cape Verde, South Africa and Oman. Genetic tests of differentiation among 42 rookeries represented by short sequences (380 bp haplotypes from 3,486 samples) and 40 rookeries represented by long sequences (~800 bp haplotypes from 3,434 samples) supported the distinction of the six RMUs analyzed as well as recognition of at least 18 demographically independent management units (MUs) with respect to female natal homing. A total of 59 haplotypes were resolved. These haplotypes belonged to two highly divergent global lineages, with haplogroup I represented primarily by CC-A1, CC-A4, and CC-A11 variants and haplogroup II represented by CC-A2 and derived variants. Geographic distribution patterns of haplogroup II haplotypes and the nested position of CC-A11.6 from Oman among the Atlantic haplotypes invoke recent colonization of the Indian Ocean from the Atlantic for both global lineages. The haplotypes we confirmed for western Indian Ocean RMUs allow reinterpretation of previous mixed stock analysis and further suggest that contemporary migratory connectivity between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans occurs on a broader scale than previously hypothesized. This study represents a valuable model for conducting comprehensive international cooperative data management and research in marine ecology.

Microsatellite markers reveal shallow genetic differentiation between cohorts of the common sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Lamarck) in northwest Mediterranean

Temporal variability was studied in the common sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus through the analysis of the genetic composition of three yearly cohorts sampled over two consecutive springs in a locality in northwestern Mediterranean. Individuals were aged using growth ring patterns observed in tests and samples were genotyped for five microsatellite loci. No reduction of genetic diversity was observed relative to a sample of the adult population from the same location or within cohorts across years. FST and amova results indicated that the differentiation between cohorts is rather shallow and not significant, as most variability is found within cohorts and within individuals. This mild differentiation translated into estimates of effective population size of 90100 individuals. When the observed excess of homozygotes was taken into account, the estimate of the average number of breeders increased to c. 300 individuals. Given our restricted sampling area and the known small-scale heterogeneity in recruitment in this species, our results suggest that at stretches of a few kilometres of shoreline, large numbers of progenitors are likely to contribute to the larval pool at each reproduction event. Intercohort variation in our samples is six times smaller than spatial variation between adults of four localities in the western Mediterranean. Our results indicate that, notwithstanding the stochastic events that take place during the long planktonic phase and during the settlement and recruitment processes, reproductive success in this species is high enough to produce cohorts genetically diverse and with little differentiation between them. Further research is needed before the link between genetic structure and underlying physical and biological processes can be well established.

Genetic Variation in the TP53 Pathway and Bladder Cancer Risk. A Comprehensive Analysis

Introduction: Germline variants in TP63 have been consistently associated with several tumors, including bladder cancer, indicating the importance of TP53 pathway in cancer genetic susceptibility. However, variants in other related genes, including TP53 rs1042522 (Arg72Pro), still present controversial results. We carried out an in depth assessment of associations between common germline variants in the TP53 pathway and bladder cancer risk. Material and Methods: We investigated 184 tagSNPs from 18 genes in 1,058 cases and 1,138 controls from the Spanish Bladder Cancer/EPICURO Study. Cases were newly-diagnosed bladder cancer patients during 1998–2001. Hospital controls were age-gender, and area matched to cases. SNPs were genotyped in blood DNA using Illumina Golden Gate and TaqMan assays. Cases were subphenotyped according to stage/grade and tumor p53 expression. We applied classical tests to assess individual SNP associations and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)-penalized logistic regression analysis to assess multiple SNPs simultaneously. Results: Based on classical analyses, SNPs in BAK1 (1), IGF1R (5), P53AIP1 (1), PMAIP1 (2), SERINPB5 (3), TP63 (3), and TP73 (1) showed significant associations at p-value#0.05. However, no evidence of association, either with overall risk or with specific disease subtypes, was observed after correction for multiple testing (p-value$0.8). LASSO selected the SNP rs6567355 in SERPINB5 with 83% of reproducibility. This SNP provided an OR = 1.21, 95%CI 1.05–1.38, p-value = 0.006, and a corrected p-value = 0.5 when controlling for over-estimation. Discussion: We found no strong evidence that common variants in the TP53 pathway are associated with bladder cancer susceptibility. Our study suggests that it is unlikely that TP53 Arg72Pro is implicated in the UCB in white Europeans. SERPINB5 and TP63 variation deserve further exploration in extended studies.

Can genetic algorithms explain experimental anomalies? An application to common property resources

It is common to find in experimental data persistent oscillations in the aggregate outcomes and high levels of heterogeneity in individual behavior. Furthermore, it is not unusual to find significant deviations from aggregate Nash equilibrium predictions. In this paper, we employ an evolutionary model with boundedly rational agents to explain these findings. We use data from common property resource experiments (Casari and Plott, 2003). Instead of positing individual-specific utility functions, we model decision makers as selfish and identical. Agent interaction is simulated using an individual learning genetic algorithm, where agents have constraints in their working memory, a limited ability to maximize, and experiment with new strategies. We show that the model replicates most of the patterns that can be found in common property resource experiments.

Hausman tests for inefficient estimators: application to demand for health care service (revised)

The Hausman (1978) test is based on the vector of differences of two estimators. It is usually assumed that one of the estimators is fully efficient, since this simplifies calculation of the test statistic. However, this assumption limits the applicability of the test, since widely used estimators such as the generalized method of moments (GMM) or quasi maximum likelihood (QML) are often not fully efficient. This paper shows that the test may easily be implemented, using well-known methods, when neither estimator is efficient. To illustrate, we present both simulation results as well as empirical results for utilization of health care services.

Thermal tests on the LISA pathfinder engineering model

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at Albert Einstein Institut in Germany, from April to July 2006.

A Model-to-model analysis of the repeated Prisoners' Dilemma: genetic algorithms vs. evolutionary dynamics

We study the properties of the well known Replicator Dynamics when applied to a finitely repeated version of the Prisoners' Dilemma game. We characterize the behavior of such dynamics under strongly simplifying assumptions (i.e. only 3 strategies are available) and show that the basin of attraction of defection shrinks as the number of repetitions increases. After discussing the difficulties involved in trying to relax the 'strongly simplifying assumptions' above, we approach the same model by means of simulations based on genetic algorithms. The resulting simulations describe a behavior of the system very close to the one predicted by the replicator dynamics without imposing any of the assumptions of the analytical model. Our main conclusion is that analytical and computational models are good complements for research in social sciences. Indeed, while on the one hand computational models are extremely useful to extend the scope of the analysis to complex scenar

New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfillment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

Automatització de tests per a una aplicació J2EE

Aquest projecte consisteix en la creació d’una eina que permeti automatitzar els tests que s’han de fer a una aplicació comercial j2ee, amb el propòsit de facilitar i estalviar feina a les persones encarregades de testejar aquesta aplicació, ajudant-les així en la seva tasca de cerca d’errors. Concretament, s’ha creat una aplicació construïda per capes, modulable i fàcilment ampliable, la qual arriba més enllà de l’automatització dels tests més habituals, permetent executar un conjunt de tests per tal de validar si la versió de l’aplicació a testejar és vàlida o no.

Multilocus sequence analysis reveals the genetic diversity of European fruit tree phytoplasmas and supports the existence of inter-species recombination

The genetic diversity of three temperate fruit tree phytoplasmas ‘Candidatus Phytoplasma prunorum’, ‘Ca. P. mali’ and ‘Ca. P. pyri’ has been established by multilocus sequence analysis. Among the four genetic loci used, the genes imp and aceF distinguished 30 and 24 genotypes, respectively, and showed the highest variability. Percentage of substitution for imp ranged from 50 to 68% according to species. Percentage of substitution varied between 9 and 12% for aceF, whereas it was between 5 and 6% for pnp and secY. In the case of ‘Ca P. prunorum’ the three most prevalent aceF genotypes were detected in both plants and insect vectors, confirming that the prevalent isolates are propagated by insects. The four isolates known to be hypo-virulent had the same aceF sequence, indicating a possible monophyletic origin. Haplotype network reconstructed by eBURST revealed that among the 34 haplotypes of ‘Ca. P. prunorum’, the four hypo-virulent isolates also grouped together in the same clade. Genotyping of some Spanish and Azerbaijanese ‘Ca. P. pyri’ isolates showed that they shared some alleles with ‘Ca. P. prunorum’, supporting for the first time to our knowledge, the existence of inter-species recombination between these two species.

Population genetic structure and demography analysis in palinurus elephas populations from atlantic and mediterranean waters

Report for the scientific sojourn at the University of Reading, United Kingdom, from January until May 2008. The main objectives have been firstly to infer population structure and parameters in demographic models using a total of 13 microsatellite loci for genotyping approximately 30 individuals per population in 10 Palinurus elephas populations both from Mediterranean and Atlantic waters. Secondly, developing statistical methods to identify discrepant loci, possibly under selection and implement those methods using the R software environment. It is important to consider that the calculation of the probability distribution of the demographic and mutational parameters for a full genetic data set is numerically difficult for complex demographic history (Stephens 2003). The Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), based on summary statistics to infer posterior distributions of variable parameters without explicit likelihood calculations, can surmount this difficulty. This would allow to gather information on different demographic prior values (i.e. effective population sizes, migration rate, microsatellite mutation rate, mutational processes) and assay the sensitivity of inferences to demographic priors by assuming different priors.

Statistical tests for scaling in the inter-event times of earthquakes in California

We explore in depth the validity of a recently proposed scaling law for earthquake inter-event time distributions in the case of the Southern California, using the waveform cross-correlation catalog of Shearer et al. Two statistical tests are used: on the one hand, the standard two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is in agreement with the scaling of the distributions. On the other hand, the one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic complemented with Monte Carlo simulation of the inter-event times, as done by Clauset et al., supports the validity of the gamma distribution as a simple model of the scaling function appearing on the scaling law, for rescaled inter-event times above 0.01, except for the largest data set (magnitude greater than 2). A discussion of these results is provided.

Los tests proyectivos en la comprensión de la recepción del arte gráfico

Una aproximació a la psicologia de la recepció de l'obra d'art a partir dels tests projectius.

Tests de conduir amb .NET i AJAX autotest

Es tracta d'una aplicació Web que serveix perquè les persones puguin practicar i millorar els seus coneixements de cara a l'examen teòric de conduir. S'ha realitzat l'anàlisi, el disseny i la implementació utilitzant una arquitectura .NET amb 4 capes.