Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

Application of compositional data analysis to geochemical data of marine sediments

In an earlier investigation (Burger et al., 2000) five sediment cores near the RodriguesTriple Junction in the Indian Ocean were studied applying classical statistical methods(fuzzy c-means clustering, linear mixing model, principal component analysis) for theextraction of endmembers and evaluating the spatial and temporal variation ofgeochemical signals. Three main factors of sedimentation were expected by the marinegeologists: a volcano-genetic, a hydro-hydrothermal and an ultra-basic factor. Thedisplay of fuzzy membership values and/or factor scores versus depth providedconsistent results for two factors only; the ultra-basic component could not beidentified. The reason for this may be that only traditional statistical methods wereapplied, i.e. the untransformed components were used and the cosine-theta coefficient assimilarity measure.During the last decade considerable progress in compositional data analysis was madeand many case studies were published using new tools for exploratory analysis of thesedata. Therefore it makes sense to check if the application of suitable data transformations,reduction of the D-part simplex to two or three factors and visualinterpretation of the factor scores would lead to a revision of earlier results and toanswers to open questions . In this paper we follow the lines of a paper of R. Tolosana-Delgado et al. (2005) starting with a problem-oriented interpretation of the biplotscattergram, extracting compositional factors, ilr-transformation of the components andvisualization of the factor scores in a spatial context: The compositional factors will beplotted versus depth (time) of the core samples in order to facilitate the identification ofthe expected sources of the sedimentary process.Kew words: compositional data analysis, biplot, deep sea sediments

Methods and representativeness of European surveys in children and adolescents: the KIDSCREEN study

Background: The objective of the present study was to compare three different sampling and questionnaire administration methods used in the international KIDSCREEN study in terms of participation, response rates, and external validity. Methods: Children and adolescents aged 8–18 years were surveyed in 13 European countries using either telephone sampling and mail administration, random sampling of school listings followed by classroom or mail administration, or multistage random sampling of communities and households with self-administration of the survey materials at home. Cooperation, completion, and response rates were compared across countries and survey methods. Data on non-respondents was collected in 8 countries. The population fraction (PF, respondents in each sex-age, or educational level category, divided by the population in the same category from Eurostat census data) and population fraction ratio (PFR, ratio of PF) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals were used to analyze differences by country between the KIDSCREEN samples and a reference Eurostat population. Results: Response rates by country ranged from 18.9% to 91.2%. Response rates were highest in the school-based surveys (69.0%–91.2%). Sample proportions by age and gender were similar to the reference Eurostat population in most countries, although boys and adolescents were slightly underrepresented (PFR <1). Parents in lower educational categories were less likely to participate (PFR <1 in 5 countries). Parents in higher educational categories were overrepresented when the school and household sampling strategies were used (PFR = 1.78–2.97). Conclusion: School-based sampling achieved the highest overall response rates but also produced slightly more biased samples than the other methods. The results suggest that the samples were sufficiently representative to provide reference population values for the KIDSCREEN instrument.

Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.

The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

Geochemical exploration in the Montseny Mountains (NE Spain)

A five year program of systematic multi-element geochemical exploration of the Catalonian Coastal Ranges has been initiated by the Geological Survey of Autonomic Government of Catalonia (Generalitat de Catalunya) and the Department of Geological and Geophysical Exploration (University of Barcelona). This paper reports the first stage results of this regional survey, covering an area of 530 km2 in the Montseny Mountains, NE of Barcelona (Spain). Stream sediments for metals and stream waters for fluoride were chosen because of the regional characteristics. Four target areas for future tactic survey were recognized after the prospect. The most important is a 40 km* zone in the Canoves-Vilamajor area, with high base metal values accompanied by Cd, Ni, Co, As and Sb anomalies. Keywords: Catalanides. Geochemical exploration. Stream sediments. Base metal anomalies. Principal Component Analysis.

A detailed stream sediment Geochemical survey in the Canoves St. Pere de Vilamajor area (Montseny massif. NE Spain)

Se ha realizado una prospección geoquímica táctica de sedimentos aluviales en el Brea de Cánoves-St. Pere de Vilamajor (Macizo del Montseny, Barcelona), como consecuencia de una exploración geoquimica estratégica de sedimentos aluviales previa, en la que se localizó un Brea anómala en Pb, Zn, Cu, As, Cd, Ni, y Co. El Brea estudiada tiene 35 km2 y esta constituida por materiales sedimentarios y volcánicos del Paleozoico, metamorfizados en mayor o menor grado e intruidos por el granito de Vallfornés, y materiales detríticos terciarios...

Macrofossils in Raraku Lake (Easter Island) integrated with sedimentary and geochemical records towards a palaeoecological synthesis for the last 34,000 years

Macrofossil analysis of a composite 19 m long sediment core from Rano Raraku Lake (Easter Island)was related to litho-sedimentary and geochemical features of the sediment. Strong stratigraphical patterns are shown by indirect gradient analyses of the data. The good correspondence between the stratigraphical patterns derived from macrofossil (Correspondence Analysis) and sedimentary and geochemical data (Principal Component Analysis) shows that macrofossil associations provide sound palaeolimnological information in conjunction with sedimentary data. The main taphonomic factors in fluencing the macrofossil assemblages are run-off from the catchment, the littoral plant belt, and the depositional environment within the basin. Five main stages during the last 34,000 calibrated years BP (cal yr BP) are characterised from the lithological, geochemical, and macrofossil data. From 34 to 14.6 cal kyr BP (last glacial period) the sediments were largely derived from the catchment, indicating a high energy lake environment with much erosion and run-off bringing abundant plant trichomes, lichens, and mosses into the centre of Raraku Lake.

Serological and virological surveys of the influenza A viruses in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic penguins

To evaluate the avian influenza virus (AIV) circulation in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic penguins we carried out a serosurvey on six species from Livingston, Marion and Gough islands. Seropositivity against AIV was performed on serum samples using a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and haemagglutination and neuraminidase inhibition assays. Some oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs were also assayed to detect influenza virus genomes by real time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Overall, 12.1% (n = 140) penguins were seropositive to AIV. By species, we detected 5% (n = 19) and 11% (n = 18) seroprevalence in sub-Antarctic rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes spp.) from Gough and Marion islands, respectively, 42% (n = 33) seroprevalence in macaroni penguins (Eudyptes chysolophus Brandt), but no positives in the three other species, gentoo (Pygoscelis papua Forster; n = 25) and chinstrap penguins (P. antarctica Forster; n = 16), from Livingston Island and king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus Miller; n = 27) from Marion Island. While seropositivity reflected previous exposure to the AIV, the influenza genome was not detected. Our results indicate that AIV strains have circulated in penguin species in the sub-Antarctic region, but further studies are necessary to determine the precise role that such penguin species play in AIV epidemiology and if this circulation is species (or genus) specific.

Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated.